mobility after the car 2 v5 - arie bleijenberg · 70 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980...

Mobility after the car era 11 December 2014

1

Mobility after the car eraFuture of Mobility, TUeEindhoven, 11 November 2014

Arie Bleijenberg

Future of Mobility

Approach: driving forces, long term, facts & figure s

slides

Speed 8

Urbanization 7

Mobility in 2050 1

Freight transport 5

Sustainable mobility 6

Transport technology 2

Conclusions 1

Arie BleijenbergMobility after the car era

2December 11, 2014


2

Mobility in pkm 1800 – 1990 (France)


3

Grübler 1990

1/8

December 11, 2014

Mobility in pkm 1970 – 2009 (Europe)


4

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Rail Passenger Private Cars Bus and Coach Total Inland Passenger

CEPS 2013

2/8

December 11, 2014


3

Car mileage per person 1970 – 2013 (USA)


5

Wordpress.com 2013

3/8

December 11, 2014

Constant travel time


6

Schäfer and Victor 2000

4/8

December 11, 2014


4

Explaining growth in passenger travel


7

Mobility [pkm/day]

Population [P]

Average travel speed [km/h]

Travel time ~ 1,1 [h/day]

5/8

December 11, 2014

Constant travel time 1970 – 2010 (UK)


8

Department for Transport

6/8

December 11, 2014


5

Speed 1900 – 2000 (Netherlands)


9

Gemiddelde snelheid (km/uur)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Jaren

km/u

ur

incl. vliegtuig

excl. vliegtuig

Verkeer en Waterstaat 2002

7/8

December 11, 2014

Mobility 2000 – 2050 (Western Europe)


10

Bleijenberg 2012

8/8

December 11, 2014


6

Accessibility counts: economic and social


11

Accessibility Distance

Speed1/7

December 11, 2014

Urban population 1950 - 2050


12

—

10,0

20,0

30,0

40,0

50,0

60,0

70,0

80,0

90,0

100,0

World

Western Europe

Netherlands

UN 2011

2/7

December 11, 2014


7

Urbanisation and economy


13

MatchingSharing LearningDuranton and Puga 2004

3/7

December 11, 2014

Rise of the knowledge and creative economy


14

Florida 2014

4/7

December 11, 2014


8

New urbanization


15

5/7

December 11, 2014

Daily trips in Paris


16

WBCSD 2004

6/7

December 11, 2014


9

Urbanization determines mobility (Netherlands)


17

Most urban Least urban

Average trip distance 10 km 12 km

Average commuting distance 17 km 20 km

Distance to hospital, station, theatre 2 – 3 km 9 km

Average speed 24 km/h 33 km/h

Average speed car 39 km/h 45 km/h

Average travel time ppd 1,1 h 1,0 h

Car trips 36% 55%

Public transport trips 10% 2%

Walking and cycling 53% 40%

Total kilometres ppd 26 km 32 km

Car kilometres ppd 16 km 26 km

CBS 2014

- 40%

7/7

December 11, 2014

Mobility in 2010 – 2050 (Western Europe)


18

1/1

December 11, 2014


10

Freight transport in tkm 1800 – 1990 (France)


19

Grübler 1990

1/5

December 11, 2014

Price road freight in €ct/tkm 1850 – 2000 (Europe and Netherlands)


20

Verkeer en Waterstaat 2002

2/5

December 11, 2014


11

Freight transport in tkm 1970 – 2009 (Europe)


21

CEPS 2013

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005Rail Freight Road Freight Total Inland Waterways Freight

Oil Pipelines Total Inland Freight

3/5

December 11, 2014

Explaining growth in freight transport

Impact Change

Economic value (GDP) + -

Physical economy (weight, volume) ++ --

Liberalisation, globalisation +++ --

Reduction transport costs +++ --

Range of consumer goods ++ -

Comparative advantages ++ -

Freight transport growth --


22

4/5

December 11, 2014


12

Logistics sprawl and city logistics


23

5/5

Tavasszy 2013

Towards:

Spatial concentration of production sites, distribution centres and multi modal hubs

Public service city logistics

December 11, 2014

CO2 emissions transport: trend and target (EU)


24

EEA TERM 2013

1/6

December 11, 2014


13

Air pollution from road traffic 1990 – 2007 (EU)


25

EC 2011

2/6

December 11, 2014

Standards for air pollution from cars (EU)


26

CEPS 2013

3/6

December 11, 2014


14

Standards for CO 2 from cars (international)


27

Ricardo AEA 2013

4/6

December 11, 2014

Sustainable mobility


28

5/6

December 11, 2014


15

Reduction CO 2 from transport 2010 – 2050 (EU)


29

-80,00%

-70,00%

-60,00%

-50,00%

-40,00%

-30,00%

-20,00%

-10,00%

0,00%

TOTAL TransportVolume

EfficientTransportSystem

Eco-driving Low CarbonFuels, Engines

CEPS 2013

6/6

75 - 90%

December 11, 2014

Timeline transport technologies

Steam

train

Com

bustion engineE

lectric engine

Car

Airplane

Electric train

Jet engine

Sea container

Manned space ship


30

1850 19501900 2000

1/2

December 11, 2014


16

New transport technologies?


31

Urban travel:Beat the underground!

Long distance travel:Beat the airplane!

2/2

Or beat the car in door-to-door speed!And the truck in generalised costs!

December 11, 2014

Mobility after the car era

Developments and challenges

Aviation becomes dominant transport mode for passenger travel

Clean technology for cars, trucks, ships and airplanes

New urbanization: knowledge economy and end car growth

Urbanization requires improved mass transit, elevators, cycling and

walking; car, van and truck continue to play their part.

Uncertainties and challenges

Faster urban transport than the underground?

Faster long distance travel than aviation?

Faster or cheaper than car and truck on medium distances?

Impact ICT on travel behaviour?

Space ship as future travel mode?


32December 11, 2014


17


33

Thank you for your attention!

Questions?Discourse?

[email protected]

December 11, 2014

mobility after the car 2 v5 - arie bleijenberg · 70 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980...

Documents