MNI Russia Consumer Indicator Rises to 99.3 in January from 95.7 in December Sentiment Up Ahead of Sochi Olympics

Insight and data for better decisions

Commenting on the data, Chief Economist of MNI Indicators, Philip Uglow said, “Consumer confidence bounced back significantly following a weakening in the past two months. It is likely, though, that with all eyes on Russia, sentiment was given a short-term boost by the Sochi Olympics.”

“Concerns over prices and employment remain, with the latter worsening significantly. Up to now, the labour market has come through the downturn unscathed, but a worsening in our sister Russia business survey and increasing reports of large layoffs in some parts of the country suggest this could change.”

The MNI Russia Consumer Indicator increased for the second consecutive month in January to the highest level since October, partially fuelled by the upcoming Sochi Winter Olympics.

The Consumer Indicator rose to 99.3 in January from 95.7 in December, close to the breakeven 100 level which separates weakness from strength. Consumers were more optimistic about their current conditions than future expectations, with the Current Indicator rising to the highest level since the series began in March 2013. The increase was led by an improvement in both personal finances and consumer’s propensity to buy a large household durable. The Expectations Indicator increased more moderately, led by a rise in optimism for longer term business conditions.

In spite of the pick-up in confidence and the recent fall in inflation, consumers concerns over the price level worsened in January and their expectations for inflation in a year‘s time remained at a high level. Most respondents continued to expect that prices would rise between 11-24% in a year’s time.

They were even more concerned about the employment situation with sentiment about the outlook for jobs hitting a record low in January.

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MNI Indicators - January 2014 2

Overview

Nov-13 Dec-13 Jan-14Highest

Since Lowest

Since 3-Month Average

Monthly Change

Monthly % Change

MNI Russia Consumer Indicator 94.8 95.7 99.3 Oct-13 - 96.6 3.6 3.8%

Current Indicator 94.3 95.7 102.0 series high - 97.3 6.3 6.6%

Expectations Indicator 95.1 95.7 97.5 Oct-13 - 96.1 1.8 1.9%

Personal Finance: Current 92.0 92.5 99.3 Aug-13 - 94.6 6.8 7.4%

Personal Finance: Expected 101.7 101.9 101.2 - Oct-13 101.6 -0.7 -0.8%

Business Condition: 1 Year 94.9 94.4 95.1 Oct-13 - 94.8 0.7 0.7%

Business Condition: 5 Year 88.7 90.8 96.4 Aug-13 - 91.9 5.6 6.2%

Durable Buying Conditions 96.6 98.9 104.7 Oct-13 - 100.1 5.8 5.9%

Current Business Conditions Indicator 97.4 94.9 100.3 series high - 97.6 5.4 5.7%

Real Estate Investment Indicator 110.5 106.9 112.1 Oct-13 - 109.9 5.2 4.9%

Car Purchase Indicator 81.9 81.0 83.3 Oct-13 - 82.1 2.3 2.9%

Employment Outlook Indicator 98.1 98.2 87.2 - series low 94.5 -11.0 -11.2%

Inflation Expectations Indicator 136.8 138.2 136.9 - Nov-13 137.3 -1.3 -0.9%

Current Prices Satisfaction Indicator 73.5 71.8 69.4 - series low 71.5 -2.4 -3.3%

Interest Rates Expectations Indicator 115.5 114.9 115.9 May-13 - 115.5 1.0 0.8%

92

94

96

98

100

102

Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14

MNI Russia Consumer Indicator

Copyright© 2014 MNI Indicators | Deutsche Börse Group

Reproduction or retransmission in whole or in part is prohibited except by permission. All rights reserved.