MIT Lincoln LaboratoryWSN05 Toulouse 1

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Bill DupreeMarilyn Wolfson

Rick Johnson, Jr.

Bob Boldi

Evelyn Mann

Kim Theriault Calden

Carol Wilson

Paul Bieringer

Brian Martin

Haig Iskenderian

FAA Tactical Weather Forecasting In The United States National Airspace

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Aviation Delay Problem

Aviation Weather Delays US Air Traffic Density

• Accurate Wx and Forecasts

• Current

• Rapid Update (2-5min)

• High-resolution (1km)

• Reliable

Forecast Requirements

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Motivation for Precip Forecast(Terminal Delays)

10:30-12:10am Local Time

04:00 Z 03:30- 5:10 Z

Memphis, TN 15 July 1997Vertical Integrated Liquid Water (VIL)

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Motivation for Echo Tops Forecast(En Route Delays)

VIL (levels) Echo Tops (kft)

Flights Shown: All flights at or above 4.9 km (16,000 ft)

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Overview

• Problem

• 0-2 Hour Weather Forecast System

– Evolution of Forecast System– Forecast Components– Forecast Products– Performance

• Research Efforts

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Evolution of the Forecast System

1998: 1-hr Forecast

in ITWS

2002: 2-hr Forecast

(Multi-scale Tracking &Weather Classification)

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

2003: Winter

Forecast

2005: Echo TopsForecast

2005: Satellite/Precip

Loop

1999: Growth/DecayTracker Patent

2003: Growth/Decay

Trending

Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS)

Integrated Terminal Weather

System (ITWS)

New YorkOrlandoMemphisDallas

NEXRAD

ASR-9 RadarsCanadian Radars

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Weather Classification

Weather Classification NEXRAD Precipitation (VIL)

Multi-scaleTracking

Forecast Engine

Line Storms

Small Cells

Large Cells

StratiformRain

9 July 2003 17:17 Z

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Multi-scale Tracking Technology

Envelope Vectors

Cell Vectors

Weather Classification Image

Multi-scale

TrackingVectors

13 x 69km

13 km

VIL9 July 2003

Envelope

Cell

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Growth and Decay Trends

Prior Image Current Image

VIL & Echo Top Images

Difference Images(Each Advected to Analysis Time)

Trend Images

Apply match

template kernels to each pixel

VIL

Growth/Decay Boundary Growth

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Generation of 2-hr Forecast

Multi-scaleTracking

BoundaryGrowth

Growth & Decay Trends

Weather Classification

Thunderstorm Evolution Models

VIL Forecasts

Echo Top Forecasts

Echo Top Cap

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VIL Forecast Verification 60min (25 June – 1 July 2005)

Hit

Miss

False Alarm

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Overview

• Problem

• 0-2 Hour Weather Forecast System

• Research Efforts

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Convective Initiation Forecasting(Front and Wind Boundary Locations)

DATA SOURCES

Doppler RadarSurface Sensors

Model Winds

AutomatedFront/Boundary

Detections

TemporalIntegration

Filters

SurfaceWind

Analysis System

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Automated Front Detection

(10-5 sec-1)

20 April 2005

Data from NOAA FSL: Space Time Mesoscale Analysis System (STMAS)

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Summary

• Demonstrating 0-2 hr forecasts of VIL and Echo Tops– Covers busiest air traffic sectors of US

• Performance is consistently excellent

• User feedback has been crucial in system development– High benefits now being realized

• Convective initiation forecasts still needed– Promising new techniques for automated boundary detection

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End of presentation