MIT Lincoln LaboratoryWSN05 Toulouse 1
WJD 04/18/23
Bill DupreeMarilyn Wolfson
Rick Johnson, Jr.
Bob Boldi
Evelyn Mann
Kim Theriault Calden
Carol Wilson
Paul Bieringer
Brian Martin
Haig Iskenderian
FAA Tactical Weather Forecasting In The United States National Airspace
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryWSN05 Toulouse 2
WJD 04/18/23
Aviation Delay Problem
Aviation Weather Delays US Air Traffic Density
• Accurate Wx and Forecasts
• Current
• Rapid Update (2-5min)
• High-resolution (1km)
• Reliable
Forecast Requirements
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryWSN05 Toulouse 3
WJD 04/18/23
Motivation for Precip Forecast(Terminal Delays)
10:30-12:10am Local Time
04:00 Z 03:30- 5:10 Z
Memphis, TN 15 July 1997Vertical Integrated Liquid Water (VIL)
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryWSN05 Toulouse 4
WJD 04/18/23
Motivation for Echo Tops Forecast(En Route Delays)
VIL (levels) Echo Tops (kft)
Flights Shown: All flights at or above 4.9 km (16,000 ft)
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryWSN05 Toulouse 5
WJD 04/18/23
Overview
• Problem
• 0-2 Hour Weather Forecast System
– Evolution of Forecast System– Forecast Components– Forecast Products– Performance
• Research Efforts
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryWSN05 Toulouse 6
WJD 04/18/23
Evolution of the Forecast System
1998: 1-hr Forecast
in ITWS
2002: 2-hr Forecast
(Multi-scale Tracking &Weather Classification)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
2003: Winter
Forecast
2005: Echo TopsForecast
2005: Satellite/Precip
Loop
1999: Growth/DecayTracker Patent
2003: Growth/Decay
Trending
Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS)
Integrated Terminal Weather
System (ITWS)
New YorkOrlandoMemphisDallas
NEXRAD
ASR-9 RadarsCanadian Radars
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryWSN05 Toulouse 7
WJD 04/18/23
Weather Classification
Weather Classification NEXRAD Precipitation (VIL)
Multi-scaleTracking
Forecast Engine
Line Storms
Small Cells
Large Cells
StratiformRain
9 July 2003 17:17 Z
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryWSN05 Toulouse 8
WJD 04/18/23
Multi-scale Tracking Technology
Envelope Vectors
Cell Vectors
Weather Classification Image
Multi-scale
TrackingVectors
13 x 69km
13 km
VIL9 July 2003
Envelope
Cell
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryWSN05 Toulouse 9
WJD 04/18/23
Growth and Decay Trends
Prior Image Current Image
VIL & Echo Top Images
Difference Images(Each Advected to Analysis Time)
Trend Images
Apply match
template kernels to each pixel
VIL
Growth/Decay Boundary Growth
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryWSN05 Toulouse 10
WJD 04/18/23
Generation of 2-hr Forecast
Multi-scaleTracking
BoundaryGrowth
Growth & Decay Trends
Weather Classification
Thunderstorm Evolution Models
VIL Forecasts
Echo Top Forecasts
Echo Top Cap
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryWSN05 Toulouse 11
WJD 04/18/23
VIL Forecast Verification 60min (25 June – 1 July 2005)
Hit
Miss
False Alarm
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryWSN05 Toulouse 12
WJD 04/18/23
Overview
• Problem
• 0-2 Hour Weather Forecast System
• Research Efforts
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryWSN05 Toulouse 13
WJD 04/18/23
Convective Initiation Forecasting(Front and Wind Boundary Locations)
DATA SOURCES
Doppler RadarSurface Sensors
Model Winds
AutomatedFront/Boundary
Detections
TemporalIntegration
Filters
SurfaceWind
Analysis System
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryWSN05 Toulouse 14
WJD 04/18/23
Automated Front Detection
(10-5 sec-1)
20 April 2005
Data from NOAA FSL: Space Time Mesoscale Analysis System (STMAS)
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryWSN05 Toulouse 15
WJD 04/18/23
Summary
• Demonstrating 0-2 hr forecasts of VIL and Echo Tops– Covers busiest air traffic sectors of US
• Performance is consistently excellent
• User feedback has been crucial in system development– High benefits now being realized
• Convective initiation forecasts still needed– Promising new techniques for automated boundary detection