mit lincoln laboratory ciws d. meyer 10/21/05 corridor integrated weather system (ciws)
TRANSCRIPT
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
Corridor Integrated Weather System
(CIWS)
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
Outline
• Example of Weather Impacting Air traffic – Impacts on worst delay day
• Ways to reduce delay– Improve forecasts– Aid traffic flow management
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
Aviation Delay Problem
OPSNET Weather Delays
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Month
Th
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ys
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2001
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1999
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2005
2004
2003
US Air Traffic Density
• Thunderstorms cause fatalities and severe injuries at a cost of $8.1M/yr
• Convection responsible for 40% of delay costs: $840 – 920 M/yr
• Approximately 40% of thunderstorm delay possibly avoidable ($336-368 M/yr)
Thunderstorm Impacts
Causes of NAS Delays in 2004
Aviation Weather Delays
Other 5% Weather
76%
© The COMET Program
Volume 14%
Equipment 1%
Closed Runway 4%
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
FAA Corridor Integrated Weather SystemImproving Tactical Convective Weather Forecasts for Aviation
Precipitation Mosaic
# of aircraft
CIWS Domain and Air Traffic
0-2 hourEcho Tops Forecast
Winter Precipitation Forecast
0-2 hourPrecipitation Forecast
Growth and Decay Trends
Echo Tops Mosaic
Plan CIWS capability across CONUS by 2007
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
Identified CIWS Benefits in 2003
• Intensive benefits analyses in 2003 & 2005– Annual benefits estimates are from ’03
– Increase expected based on ’05 analyses
Improved Arrival Transition Area
Management
Interfacility Coordination
Situational Awareness
Routes Open Longer
$89M
ReduceWorkload
ProactiveReroutes
$37M
Relative Frequency of Benefits Categories
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
CIWS Benefits Are Increasing …
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NEXRADPrecip
PrecipFcst
EchoTops
EchoTops Fcst
G&DTrend
StormMotionVectors
Lightning ASRPrecip
Pro
du
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Us
e F
req
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y P
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ay Route Open Longer (2003)
Route Open Longer (2005)
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NEXRADPrecip
PrecipFcst
EchoTops
EchoTops Fcst
G&DTrend
StormMotionVectors
Lightning ASRPrecip
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Proactive, Efficient Reroute (2003)
Proactive, Efficient Reroute (2005)
Comparison of CIWS Product Usage in 2003 and 2005
Keeping Routes Open Longer Proactive, Efficient Reroutes
• Note increased use of Precip Forecast and importance of Echo Tops information
• Initial use of Echo Tops Forecast in 2005 surpasses use of Precip Forecast in 2003
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
CIWS Benefits ComparisonsARTCCs With and Without CIWS Displays in Areas
• Much higher benefits at ARTCCs with CIWS displays in TMU and Areas
• ZMP ARTCC new CIWS ‘user’ in 2005
- Benefits lagged other ARTCCs with CIWS in TMU and Areas as 2005 was first SWAP season with CIWS and user “burn-in” period was expected
• For ARTCCs with no CIWS in Areas, significantly more benefits realized at ZBW
- Compensated for lack of CIWS in Areas through increased use in TMU
- ZBW operational benefits still lagged benefits at ZDC and ZOB (ARTCCs with similar TMU CIWS experience, but CIWS also in Areas)
** Includes most significant CIWS en route delay reduction benefits categories + FAA staffing assistance category
CIWS Operational Benefits per ARTCC **
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Routes OpenLonger
ProactiveReroutes
Reduced MITrestrictions
ImprovedATA/DTA
management
Directingpathfinders
Staffingassistance
CIW
S B
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ay ZMP
ZOB
ZDC
ZAU
ZNY
ZBW
CIWS inAreas
NO CIWS inAreas
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
Recipe for Bad NAS Delay Day
1. Impact NY TRACON directly2. Disrupt E-W flow in Corridor3. Impact DC and Atlanta simultaneously4. Make the weather impact last for hours
• 13 July 2005 had all these ingredients!– Worst single day delay in FAA history
• For 35 OEP pacing airports– 1624 delays recorded– 2017 total hours of delay– Average delay of 74 min per flight
– Hurricane Dennis remnant in central US– Convective weather along east coast
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
Example of Air Traffic Impacts by WeatherWorst Delay – day in FAA history – 13 July 2005
CIWS Precipitation CIWS Echo Tops
Flights at or above 16,000 FeetWestern weather caused by remnant of hurricane Dennis
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
CIWS 1-hr Forecast Performance
Correct Forecasts Failed to Forecast Decay Failed to Forecast Growth
• All significant storm elements forecast very well
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
CIWS 2-hr Forecast Performance
Correct Forecasts Failed to Forecast Decay Failed to Forecast Growth
• Large storms forecast less well - more growth & decay missed
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
Reducing Weather Impact Delays
• Recognize some delay is unavoidable– Develop model to calculate optimal routing given weather, traffic– Compare “actual” routing to “optimal” to fairly measure delay
• Improve forecast products– FAA Aviation Weather Research Program is
Improving storm growth & decay in 0-2 hr tactical forecasts Developing automated 2-6 hr strategic forecasts
– Research results directly improve CIWS products
• Aid traffic flow planning in complex weather scenarios– Provide common situational awareness– Couple forecasts with decision support tools
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWSD. Meyer10/21/05
Ongoing Research to Improved Forecasts
Knowledge of Frontal Forcing
Snow Mix Rain
0-2 hr Precipitation Phase Forecast
Enhanced Winter Forecast Growth of New Storms
Use of Satellite Growth Evidence
CIWS Winter Mode Forecast
Cold Front
Lake BreezeFront
Mountain Clutter