corridor integrated weather system (ciws) bradley crowe aviation weather users workshop
DESCRIPTION
Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS) Bradley Crowe Aviation Weather Users Workshop November 18 th - 19 th. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Corridor IntegratedWeather System
(CIWS)
Bradley Crowe
Aviation Weather Users Workshop
November 18th - 19th
This work was sponsored by the Federal Aviation Administration under Air Force Contract No. FA8721-05-C-0002. Opinions, interpretations, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and are not necessarily endorsed by the United States Government.
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Outline
• CIWS background
• CIWS base weather products
– Precip
– Winter Precip
– Echo Tops
• CIWS 2 hour deterministic forecasts
• Additional CIWS products
• RAPT overview
• Future work
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Corridor Integrated Weather System (CIWS)
• Air Traffic Control System Command Center
• Air Route Traffic Control Centers (ARTCC) (ZAU, ZOB, ZID, ZDC, ZBW, ZNY, ZMP, ZKC)
• Terminal Radar Approach Controls (TRACON) (N90, C90, CVG, D21, PIT, CLE)
• Great Lakes Office
• Airlines with dedicated displays
2008
2007
Dedicated CIWS Display Users
Automated Weather Products
DecisionSupport Tools
Web-basedToolsDedicated Displays
Models (e.g., RUC)
Satellites
Lightning
Real-timeWeatherProduct
Generator
LLWAS ASOS
Surface Weather Canadian
Canadian
Weather Radar
NEXRADASR-9
TDWR Canadian
Researchers
Aircraft
• User driven research with high degree of operational interaction
• Platform for evaluating new forecast technologies in an operational setting
• Provides digital weather products to weather- assimilated Decision Support Tools and researchers
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Operating the Prototype
24 x 7 operation
User access to operational team via page, phone, e-mail
Proactive user support
– Observing system behavior and operational use in real-time
Regular operation-based training
“… we NEED this information to do our jobs … without it, the wheels will come off the wagon …” ZDC STMC
Planned for transition to WJHTC by 2011
Planned for transition to WJHTC by 2011
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Estimated Annual Benefits
Occurrences
Estimated CIWS Applications Per Year
1 Improved situational awareness 9 Directing pathfinders2 Enhanced inter/intra-facility coordination 10 Close routes proactively3 Reduced workload 11 FAA facility staffing assistance4 Proactive reroutes 12 Directing traffic through weather gaps5 Routes open longer 13 More departures during Severe Weather6 Improved Arr/Dep transition area Avoidance Programs (SWAP) (ATA/DTA) management 14 Improved safety7 Reduced Miles-in-Trail (MIT) restrictions 15 Improved Ground Delay Program (GDP)8 Improved Ground Stop Program management management
5377
3805
1975 1769
1021513 492 361 345 287 277 256 156 75
6729
0
1000
2000
3000
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5000
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7000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Proactive Reroutes
Routes Open Longer
5377
3805
1975 1769
1021513 492 361 345 287 277 256 156 75
6729
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Proactive Reroutes
Routes Open Longer
Proactive Reroutes
Routes Open Longer
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Overview of CIWS display features
Base CIWS Weather Products
Secondary CIWS Weather Products
Loop Controls
System Menus
Color Bars
Precip Products (title Bar)
Forecast Products
Echo Tops Products
View Menu
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
CIWS on the Web
Click Live Website link
URL: http://www.wx.ll.mit.edu/ciws
Account and Password request available on home
page
NWSNWS216
Web and SD are both
Java based and very similar
Login with assigned Account and
Password
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
CIWS Weather Products
• Precp: Mosaic of Vertical Integrate Liquid Water (VIL) – Mosaic consists of NEXRAD, Canadian and TDWR data
• Winter Precip: Uses VIL with an improved lower threshold to sense weaker precipitation as well as surface and model data to display precipitation type
• Echo Tops: used high resolution Echo Tops product in a mosaic to display tops at 18 dBZ
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Standard and Winter Precipitation Colors
Past Weather Precipitation Colors
StandardWinter
Liquid Mixed Snow
Level 1a Level 1a Level 1a
Level 1 Level 1b Level 1b Level 1b
Level 1c
Level 1c+ Level 1c+
Level 2 Level 2
Level 3 Level 3
Level 4 Level 4
Level 5 Level 5
Level 6 Level 6
Standard colors for past and current weather
Winter colors for past and current weather
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Precipitation Product
• Loops from -120 min to present in 5-min increments
• Spatial resolution is a function of zoom: ~4 nmi to ~0.5 nmi
• Update rate: 2.5 min when looping Precip only;5 min when looping with Precipitation Forecast
• First left click selects Precip as the base product
• Subsequent clicks toggle display levels
• Right click displays dialog box
Filter options
• First left click selects Precip as the base product
• Subsequent clicks toggle display levels
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Precipitation Phase Algorithm
RUC Model Data
MADIS DATA
MADIS mesonet stations in the North-American domain on May 26, 2004
CIWS precipitation phase algorithm CIWS precipitation
phase and phase forecast
• Surface temperature and dew point • Upper level temperature and dew point • surface precipitation phase data
Precipitation phase algorithm uses:
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Winter Precipitation Product
• Provides additional detail within Level 1 precipitation, which may contain light (Level 1a), moderate (Level 1b), or heavy (Level lc) snow or mixed precipitation
• Precipitation phase is represented in greens (rain), pinks (mixed), and blues (snow)
• Coverage equal to extended radar coverage
Filter Options
= No Phase Information
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Echo Tops Product
Filter options
• Echo tops in 5000 ft increments (MSL)
– For 1000-ft increments use Echo Tops Tags
• Loops from -120 min to present in 5-min increments
• Spatial resolution is a function of zoom: ~4 nmi to ~0.5 nmi
• Update rate 2.5 min when looping Echo Tops only;5 min when looping with Echo Tops Forecast
Click to display where echo tops exceed radar
coverage
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
CIWS Standard and Winter and Echo Tops Forecast
Precipitation Forecast Colors
Standard
Winter
Liquid Mixed Snow
Level 1a Level 1a Level 1a
Level 1 Level 1b Level 1b Level 1b
Level 1c+ Level 1c+ Level 1c+Level 2
Level 3
Level 5+
Standard precip forecast colors
Winter precip forecast colors
• All CIWS base products have an associated forecast product
Echo Tops Forecast
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Overview of CIWS 0-2 hr Forecast Algorithm
Canadian
Canadian
Weather Radar
NEXRADASR-9
TDWR Canadian
Satellites
LLWAS ASOS
Surface Weather
NOAANumerical Weather
Prediction
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Precipitation Forecast Product
• Loops from 5 min to 120 min in 5-min increments
• Spatial resolution is a function of zoom: ~4 nmi to ~0.5 nmi
• Update rate: 5 min
• Product performance may be adversely impacted in the mountains due to beam blockage
• Airmass storms can present challenges in a 2-hour forecast
Filter forecast levels
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Echo Tops Forecast Product
• Loops from 5 min to 120 min in 5-min increments
• 4-level forecast (<30kft, 30 – 34kft, 35 – 39kft, ≥40kft)
• Spatial resolution is a function of zoom: ~4 nmi to ~0.5 nmi
• Update rate: 5 min
• Product performance may suffer in the mountains due to beam blockage
Filter options
Echo Tops Forecast
Below FL 300
FL 300 to below FL 350
FL 350 to below FL 400
At and above FL 400
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Additional CIWS products
• Satellite
• Lightning
• Storm Motion
• Echo Tops tags
• Growth and Decay Trends
• Forecast Contours
• Verification Contours
• Forecast Accuracy
Lightning: White + indicates location of cloud-to-ground lightning strikes over the past six minutes.
Satellite: Visible/Infrared satellite mosaic.
Storm Motion: Black arrows and blue lines showing movement of Level 3+ weather.
Echo Tops Tags: Echo tops labels in 1000-foot increments.
Growth & Decay Trends: Areas of growth (orange cross-hatched) and decay (dark blue) within the last 15 to 18 minutes.
Forecast on Precip
Verification on Precip
Forecast region on Precip
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
RRoute oute AAvailability vailability PPlanning lanning TToolool Architecture
Route Database Display
CIWS Precipitation Forecast
RAPT Algorithm
RAPT departure route trajectory database
ETMS CDR PLAYBOOK
Departure route is defined by an airport, a passing fix, and an ending jet route
oras a CDR
Departure trajectories are based upon average aircraft location, speed and climb profile
CIWS Echo Tops Forecast
Pilot Wx Avoidance
Model
Model for ATC usage of airspace
WEB http://rapt.wx.ll.mit.edu
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Future Work
• CoSPA 2-8 hr Forecast (Consolidated Storm Prediction for Aviation)
• Lightning proxy for VIL and Echo Tops
• NWS fronts
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
8 hour Forecast
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Comparison of CIWS and CoSPA Forecasts
CIWS CoSPA
Coverage (Spring 2009) CONUS Northeast*
Forecast period +5 min to +2 hr+2:15 min to +8 hr (The first 2 hours of the forecasts
come directly from and are identical to CIWS.)
Update rate 5 min 15 min
Loop increment 5 min 15 min
Loop parameters -2 hr to +2 hr -8 hr to +8 hr
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Example of CIWS Use of Lightning VIL
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Comparison of Merged Field with Radar Truth
(b)
(d)
(a)
(c)
Radar VIL CIWS 5min fcst
Blended radar & proxy VIL
Poor CIWS forecastdue to degraded radar VIL
Degraded radarVIL
Radar “truth”VIL at t+5 min
Important VIL features capturedby proxy VIL
CIWS forecastwould benefit from proxy VIL
(b)
(d)
(a)
(c)
Radar VIL CIWS 5min fcst
Blended radar & proxy VIL
Poor CIWS forecastdue to degraded radar VIL
Degraded radarVIL
Radar “truth”VIL at t+5 min
Important VIL features capturedby proxy VIL
CIWS forecastwould benefit from proxy VIL
• Improves precipitation intensity and echo tops heights estimates in areas where radar data are degraded (e.g., radar drop-outs and limits of coverage)
• Improves precipitation intensity and echo tops heights forecasts
• Improves safety
MIT Lincoln LaboratoryCIWS AWUW
November 2008
Automated front Location
NWS provides CONUS front analysis
MIT LL tracks and advects fronts
Product could update every 5 min