mid-year population estimates 2019 2019... · source: stats sa: mid-year population estimates 2018...

Source: Stats SA: Mid-year population estimates 2018 Stats SA: MID YEAR ESTIMATES 2019

@StatsSA

#Population

Mid-year population

estimates 2019


Mid-year population estimates uses the latest available data on

• Fertility

• Mortality

• Migration

to estimate the size of the population of South Africa.


South Africa’s population, mid-2019 is

58,78 million

Source: Mid-year population estimates 2019


52

53

54

55

56

57

58

59

60

Mil

lio

ns

Impact of births, deaths and

migration on population, 2019

BIRTHS

NETMIGRATION DEATHS+1,2M

+0,2M

-0,5M

57,9M*

58,8M

SA 2018 SA 2019

*data based 2019 series.

Births are the main driver of population growth in South Africa.

Stats SA: MID YEAR ESTIMATES 2019


1,0

1,51,4

0,40

0,80

1,20

1,60

2,00

20

02–2

003

20

03–2

004

20

04–2

005

20

05–2

006

20

06–2

007

20

07–2

008

20

08–2

009

20

09–2

010

20

10–2

011

20

11–2

012

20

12–2

013

20

13–2

014

20

14–2

015

201

5-2

016

201

6-2

017

201

7-2

018

201

8-2

019

Gro

wth

Rat

e

Population growth rate over

time, 2002-2019

Stats SA: MID YEAR ESTIMATES 2019

The rate of growth for the SA population peaked in 2010/11 and has

steadily declined since that point.


15,17 M

11,29 M

6,84 M

6,71 M

6,00 M

4,59 M

4,02 M

2,89 M

1,27 M

Gauteng

KwaZulu-Natal

Western Cape

Eastern Cape

Limpopo

Mpumalanga

North West

Free State

Northern Cape

More than half the population live in 3 provinces (Gauteng, KwaZulu- Natal and

Western Cape). GP remains SA’s most populated province with approximately 15,2 million people

(25,8%) living in this province.

Mid-year population estimates for

South Africa by province, 2019 Share of

National

Population

25,8%

19,2%

11,6%

11,4%

10,2%

7,8%

6,9%

4,9%

2,2%


15,2 M

0

5

10

15

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Mill

ion

s

11,3 M

0

5

10

15

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Mill

ion

s

6,8 M

0

5

10

15

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Mill

ion

s

6,7 M

0

5

10

15

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Mill

ion

s

6,0 M

0

5

10

15

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Mill

ion

s

4,6 M

0

5

10

15

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Mill

ion

s

4,0 M

0

5

10

15

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Mill

ion

s

2,9 M

0

5

10

15

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Mill

ion

s

1,3 M

0

5

10

15

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Mill

ion

s

GP KZNWC

LP

NW

MPEC

NCFS

GP has shown the greatest increase in population numbers, largely due to both

interprovincial and international migration. KwaZulu-Natal is the province with the second largest

population, with an estimated 11,3 million people.Mid-year population estimates for

South Africa by province, 2019


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Mill

ion

s

1,0

-5

0

5

-0,3-5

0

5

2,0

-5

0

5

3,0

-5

0

5

(3,4M)

(15,9M)

Adult 35-59

Youth 15-34

Children 0-14

Elderly 60+

(20,6M)

(17,0M)

(5,3M)

(11,4M)

(16,5M)

(15,0M)

Population growth rates by

selected age groups over time,

2002–2019

The estimated overall growth rate increased from approximately 1,0% for the period

2002–2003 to 1,4% for the period 2018–2019. The proportion of the elderly in SA is increasing


0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

Age 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51 53 55 57 59 61 63 65 67 69 71 72 75 77 79

Mil

lio

ns

Children 0-14 Youth 15-34 Elderly 60+

Around 17 million are children (0-14 years), making up close to a third of SA’s total

population.

Population age structure by

single years, 2019

(17,0M) (20,6M) (5,3M)

Adult 35-59

(15,9M)

28,8% 35,1% 9,0%27,1%


33%

29%

24%

55%

62%

68%

11,3%

9,0%

8,3%

Eastern Cape

Limpopo

KwaZulu-Natal

Mpumalanga

North West

Northern Cape

Free State

South Africa

Western Cape

Gauteng

Elderly (60+) within each province

Children under 15 within each province

Youth and Adult

EC has both the highest child and elderly population proportions.Approximately 33% are 15 years or under

Population by age category and

province, 2019


49

58,8 Mil

51%49%FemaleMale

(30,1M)(28,7M)

There are more females than males in South Africa in 2019

South Africa’s population, mid-2019

*Percentages have been rounded to the nearest percentage point


0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

At older age groups there are more females than males. Approximately 8,5% are 60 years and older.

SA age structure by 5 year

groups, 2019

Higher proportionof Boys Born

Females are a higher proportion of the population from ages 40-44

Male Female


8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

Higher proportion of elderly

and children in EC

compared to SA

EC has a higher proportion of elderly and children when compared to the national

population structure. Men are in higher proportion up to age 65.

EC vs SA Age structure by 5

year groups, 2019

SA

EC

MALE FEMALE


8,0% 6,0% 4,0% 2,0% 0,0% 2,0% 4,0% 6,0% 8,0%

0-4

10-14

20-24

30-34

40-44

50-54

60-64

70-74

80+

MALE FEMALE

GP vs SA Age structure by 5

year groups, 2019

Compared to the South African average, GP has a higher proportion of adults

aged 25-39.

SA

GP

Higher proportion of working age

and lower proportion of children

compared to SA


WC30 GP

29

NC27

FS27

NW27

EC24

MP26

LIM24

KZN25

The median ages for LP and EC differ significantly to those of GP and WC

Provinces by age structure and

median age

Med

ian

Age

The median South African

age is 27

Pop Structure By 5 year Age Groups

Each dot represents 1%


Total by

Population

Groups

COLOURED

BLACK AFRICAN

WHITE

INDIAN/ASIAN

(47,4 million)

(5,2 million)

(4,6 million)

(1,5 million)

*Due to rounding totals may not add up to 100%

The black African population is in the majority and constitutes approximately 81% of

the total South African population.

81%

9%

8%

3%

SA by population group, 2019


Proportion of Black African

compared to Whites.


Proportion of Coloured compared

to Indian/ Asian


Fertility(births)


On average, a

woman

will give birth

to 2,32 children in her

lifetime* Provided that current fertility behaviour prevails


2,66

2,32

1,5

1,7

1,9

2,1

2,3

2,5

2,7

2,9

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

The total fertility rate peaked in 2008 at 2,66 and is declining, reaching 2,32

in 2019.

Total Fertility Rate, 2002-2019

To

tal F

ert

ility

Ra

te


EC LP KZN NC NW MP FS WC GP

2,88 2,872,71 2,67 2,65

2,542,35

2,00 1,91

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

3,5

More urbanised provinces of WC and GP have lower fertility rates than the South

African average of 2,32.

Total Fertility Rate, by Province

SA Average Fertility Rate is 2,32


Mortality(Deaths)


2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

20

11

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Year of death

671 812

541 493

Deaths peak in 2006, thereafter decreasing to the current value of 541 493 in 2019. The

highest number of deaths was estimated for the period 1 July 2006 to 30 June 2007.

Total number of deaths

estimated over time, 2002-2019


Male

61,5

64,7

Female

67,7

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Life expectancy by sex over

time, 2002-2019

Life expectancy (LE) has been increasing since 2007. Besides biological differences, the variance

in LE between males and females can also be attributed to a variety of social and behavioural dynamics.

LE


56,5

Infant Mortality Rate

22,1

79,0 Under-5 Mortality Rate

28,5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

Mo

rta

lity r

ate

Infant and under-five mortality rates in SA continue to decline.

IMR and U5MR per 1000 live

births over time, 2002-2019


55

57

58

59

60

60

62

62

64

66

61

64

65

66

67

66

67

68

69

71

FS

KZN

NW

NC

EC

MP

LP

SA

GP

WC

There is an average 6 year gap in life expectancy between males and females in SA.Free State has a significantly lower life expectancy than the SA average

Life Expectancy by

province,2019

5Y

6Y

Males Females


The total number of people living with HIV is estimated at 7,97 million in 2019. Improved access and uptake of ARVs in SA has enabled HIV positive people to lead healthier lives

and live longer.

Number of people living with

HIV, 2002-2019 (millions)

7,97M

Mill

ion

s

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8


Over time HIV prevalence amongst adults aged 15-49 increased substantially with

lack of treatment. Given increased levels of treatment, prevalence rates are now

declining. HIV prevalence among youth aged 15-24 has shown a steady decline.

WOMEN (15-49) ADULTS (15-49) YOUTH (15-24)

Prevalence of persons living

with HIV, 2002 - 2019

18,8%

22,7%

0,0%

5,0%

10,0%

15,0%

20,0%

25,0%

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

16,3%

19,1%

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

8,2%

4,3%

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19


Migration


-353610

574314

-400000 -200000 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000

Net Migration (Excluding Outside SA) shows that GP and WC receive the highest net

migrants

Net migration

2016 - 2021

-400000 -200000

EC

LIM

KZN

FS

MP

NC

NW

WC

GP

GP has a net gain of over half a million interprovincial migrants over a 5 year period


-400000 -200000 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000

Net migration (including outside SA) shows GP receiving around 50% of all

international migration into SA

Net migration

2016 - 2021

-314 453

1,07 M

-400000 -200000 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000-400000 -200000

EC

LIM

KZN

FS

MP

NC

NW

WC

GP

International migration adds to

net gains of provincial migration

to GP, WC and NW and MP

International migration reverses some

losses in population in EC, LP, KZN and FS


GP

EC

LP

KZN

MP

NW

WC

FS

NC

Outside SA

GP

WC

NW

KZN

MP

LP

EC

FS

NC

Gauteng received the highest number of in-migrants for the period 2016 to 2021. The

economic strength of Gauteng influences its attractiveness to migrants

Net migration 2016-2021 GP as

a destination region

GP as destination region


GP

EC

LP

KZN

MP

NW

WC

FS

NC

Outside SA

GP

WC

NW

KZN

MP

LP

EC

FS

NC

WC as destination region

Western Cape received the second highest number of in-migrants for period 2016

to 2021. Opportunities of employment, study and quality of life play an important role amongst the

push pull factors between EC and WC

Net migration 2016-2021 WC as

a destination region


RECAP

For 2019, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) estimates the mid-year

population at

Estimated overall HIV prevalence is 13,1%

among the SA population

58,78 Million

Gauteng comprises the largest share of the South African

population

15,17 Million

people in GP

Total life expectancy at birth for 2019 for SA is estimated at

64,7 SA Life

Expectancy

7,97Million people

estimated to be living with HIV


Ndzi hela kwala!

mid-year population estimates 2019 2019... · source: stats sa: mid-year population estimates 2018...

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