micro hybrid, hev, p-hev and ev market 2012-2025 impact … market 2012-2025 impact on the battery...

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Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business Director, AVICENNE ENERGY Christophe PILLOT Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business November 2013 Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 47 78 46 00 [email protected] Presentation Outline The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 The x-EV market worldwide in 2012 2012-2025 Trends & forecasts Conclusions

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Page 1: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025

Impact on the battery business

Director, AVICENNE ENERGY

Christophe PILLOT

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV

market 2012-2025

Impact on the battery business

November 2013

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Presentation Outline

• The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013

• The x-EV market worldwide in 2012

• 2012-2025 Trends & forecasts

• Conclusions

Page 2: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

AVICENNE ENERGY: RENOWNED TO HAVE REALISTIC FORECASTS

HEV powered by Lithium ion battery forecasts from 2008 to 2012

EV sold, in million units, worldwide, 2010 - 2020

0

1

2

3

4

5

2010 2015 2020N

um

be

r o

f E

V s

old

wo

rld

wid

e (

Mill

ion

)

Source : International Battery Conference, Fort Lauderdale 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 & 2011

2

0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1

1,2

1,4

1,6

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Mil

lio

n H

EV

po

we

red

by

LIB

IIT 2007

IIT 2008

IIT 2009

IIT 2010

AVICENNE 2007REALITY

AAB (2012)

AVICENNE 2007-2012

ROLAND BERGER (2011)

IIT (MARCH 2010)

ROLAND BERGER (2012)

DEUTSCHE BANK (2012)

IIT (MARCH 2011)

Page 3: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

3

THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY DYNAMIC

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2000 2012

Mil

lio

n U

nit

s /

ye

ar

Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

202 M

Portable

PCs

>115 M

Tablets

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2012

Mil

lio

n U

nit

s/Y

ea

r

Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

2000 2012

To

ns

of

cath

od

e /

Ye

ar

Tons of Li-ion Cathode per year

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

2000 2012$

/Wh

Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)

Page 4: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2012

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

40.000

45.000

1990 2000 2010 2012

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS,

…)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

4

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of industry investments

Page 5: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

400.000

1990 2000 2010 2012

MW

h

Others (Flow battery,

NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

50.000

100.000

150.000

200.000

250.000

300.000

350.000

400.000

1990 2000 2010 2012

MW

h

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2012

Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investmentsLead acid batteries: By far the most important market (90% market share)

5

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2013

Page 6: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET 1990-2012

50 BILLION US$ in 20121

5% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (1990-2012)

6

1- Pack levelSource: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

19

90

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

12

Bil

lio

n U

S $

Others (Flow

battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

19

90

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

12

Bil

lio

n U

S$

OTHERS

AUTOMOTIVE

INDUSTRIAL

E-BIKES

POWER TOOLS

PORTABLE

SLI

Page 7: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

LI-ION IN 2012MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

7

-

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

35.000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales,

MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

-

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

14.000

16.000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales,

MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2012

Tablets Power Tools Camcorders

Digital Camera Video Games MP3

Toys Auto Household devices

E-bikes Others

4 450 M cells – 32 000 MWh

10 500 M$

CAGR 2002/2012+25 % per year in Volume+14% per year in value

Page 8: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

LI-ION IN 2012MAIN APPLICATIONS: CELLULAR, NOTEBOOK

4 450 M cells – 32 000 MWh

10 700 M$ (cell level)

CAGR 2002/2012+25 % per year in Volume+14% per year in value

8

-

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

12.000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

M $

Li-ion Battery sales,

M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012

Cellular Phones Portable PCs Others

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

M $

Li-ion Battery sales,

M$, Worldwide, 2000-2012

Automotives Tablets Power tools

Camcorders Digital camera MP3

Games E-Bikes Others

Page 9: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

9

HEV, P-HEV & EVDEFINITION & SEGMENTATION

Note: Micro HEV are not in the HEV statistics & HEV forecast

EV & HEV

MARKET

EV25 kWh

HEV0.6-2 kWh

batteries

MICRO

HEV*

MILD

HEV

MEDIUM

HEV

FULL

HEV

P HEV5-20 kWh

batteries

CITROEN C3

TOYOTA VITZ GM Saturn Vue

GM AURA

GM MALIBU

HONDA ACCORD

HONDA CIVIC

INSIGHT

MERCEDES S400

TOYOTA PRIUS

TOYOTA CAMRY

FORD ESCAPE

FORD FUSION

MILAN

GM YUKON

GM TAHOE

NISSAN ALTIMA

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 $ 5.000 $ 10.000 $ 15.000 $

Fuel saving Vs. Cost

HEV

P-HEV

EV

Page 10: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

HEV WORLDWIDE IN 20121,5 M HEV

HEV sold per year, M units, worldwide, 2000 - 2012

Penetration of hybrids in the global sales, 2000-2012

10

Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY

Micro hybrid not included

0,0%

0,2%

0,4%

0,6%

0,8%

1,0%

1,2%

1,4%

1,6%

1,8%

2,0%

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

HE

V w

orl

dw

ide

pe

ne

tra

tio

n(%

)

Mil

lio

n

TOYOTA OTHERS %

USA

JAPAN

EUROPE

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012P

en

etr

ati

on

of

hy

bri

ds

in t

he

glo

ba

le s

ale

s

Page 11: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012BY CAR SUPPLIER

TOYOTA;

81%

HONDA

FORD

GM

BMWHYUNDAI PORCHE

Others

Total HEV Vehicles +1,5 M in 2012

HEV sold per year, M units per car manufacturers, 2000-2012

11

TOYOTA

HONDA

0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

‘ 0

00

HE

V s

old

TOYOTA HONDA

Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY

Micro hybrid not included

Others: Nissan, Mercedes, Mazda, VW, Audi

Page 12: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012BY CAR SUPPLIER

TOP 3: TOYOTA, HONDA, HYUNDAI

OTHERS: FORD, GM, E

12

TOYOTA

HONDA

HYUNDAI0

200

400

600

800

1.000

1.200

1.400

‘ 0

00

HE

V s

old

TOYOTA HONDA HYUNDAI

FORD

GM

HYUNDAI

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

‘ 0

00

HE

V s

old

FORD GM HYUNDAI

Source: TOYOTA, HONDA, NISSAN, FORD, GM, HYUNDAI, MERCEDES, GM, BMW, VW, PORSCHE… Compilation AVICENNE ENERGY

Micro hybrid not included

Page 13: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

HEV WORLDWIDE IN 2012BY COUNTRY

USA

29%

EUROPE

10%JAPAN

54%

OTHERS

7%

Total HEV Vehicles +1,5 M in 2012

HEV sold per year, M units per country, 2004-2012

13

USA

EUROPE

JAPAN

OTHERS0

100000

200000

300000

400000

500000

600000

700000

800000

900000

2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Micro hybrid not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013

Page 14: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

HEV FORECASTS2012-2025

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

20

20

HE

V p

en

etr

ati

on

(%

of

tota

l ca

r sa

les)

USA EUROPE JAPAN

OTHERS WORLD

HEV MARKET: 2,5 Million units in 2015 – 5 M in 2020

14

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

Mil

lio

n

USA EUROPE JAPAN OTHERS

Micro hybrid not included Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013

Page 15: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

15

LI-ION BATTERY DEVELOPMENTS FOR HEV, P-HEV & EV

Recall slash battery profitLIB >>> NiMH but

SAFETY & COST ISSUES

PRIUS III NiMH PRIUS x - Li-ion

Volts 201.6 201.6

Cells 168 (28*6) 56

Capacity 6.5 Ah 3.8 Ah

Energy 1310 Wh 766 Wh

Weight 38 kg 25 kg

T°C Range + +

Cyclability + ++

Safety

Cost

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Operating profit/Revenue

Sanyo

MBI

BYD

SGS

Sony

NEC

Maxell

LGC

SDI

Average

Page 16: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

SAFETY ISSUES

16

Li-ion and LMP are not thermally stable what raises serious safety concerns

In the 80’s, lithium metal batteries were put into the markets (Moli Energy). Their further development has for

a long time been slow because of a low cycle efficiency and safety issues: High chemical reactivity and a low

melting point enable strong chemical reactions, even explosions. In the charging-discharging process, lithium

metal can form dendrite and accumulate on electrodes. The growing lithium dendrite could puncture the

separator and result in an internal short circuit.

• CONSEQUENCES: Except BOLLORE, all the companies developing Li metal batteries cancelled their projects

Background

Mobile

Li-ion batteries for mobile devices mostly used a Lithium Cobalt Oxide Cathode and liquid electrolyte.In case of overcharging or short-circuit (contact between anode & cathode) a chain reaction starts -> heating & gasing -> fire (“Thermal runaway”)CONSEQUENCES: In 2006, SONY had to recall millions of portable PCs for total costs of 400 million USD, more than there profit-to-date

Automotive With new cathode chemistry, most of the automotive today on the markets experienced safety

concerns:(1) BYD Taxi in China with a lithium iron phosphate cathode(2) GM Volt in the US with a LG Chemical battery using LMO cathodes (as a result of a crashed tested Chevrolet Volt caught three weeks after the testing !)(3) PRIUS P-HEV in the US (converted from HEV Prius by a local engineering company without any authorisation by Toyota)

Aircraft

Boing 787: The fire that burned near the tail of a parked Boeing 787 in Boston was caused by an overheating Lithium ion battery pack. The battery fire could have been hot enough to melt the carbon-fiber reinforced plastic that makes up the plane’s shell.CONSEQUENCES: All the 787 worldwide are grounded. Considerable losses for Boing.

Page 17: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

SAFETY IS A SINE-QUA-NON SELECTION CRITERIA FOR BATTERY TECHNOLOGIES

17

Some technologies are already out of the game due to stability issues

Page 18: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

LIB FOR AUTOMOTIVEVALUE CHAIN

18

The largest share of the

value (40%) comes from

cell components

Cell manufacturers & OEM

alliance may be the winning

model but comes with high

risk if the wrong cell

manufacturer is selected

Tiers 1- cell manufacturers

alliance: most of them

disappear (eg. Saft-Johnson

Controls, Bosch-Samsung,

Enerdel-Delphi…)

Tiers 1- OEM alliance on

Battery are not successful

Panasonic and LG Chem,

cell manufacturers develop

raw -material in-house and

make the pack integration

for OEM

On a different scale,

Toyota, BYD or BOLLORE

are fully integrate

1

2

3

5

4

6

Comments

Page 19: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

19

LIB MANUFACTURING INVESTMENTS 2009-2015

10-12 B$ WORLDWIDE

>50 GWh in 2015

A123 Michigan Plant - Photo courtesy of A123 Systems

Liotech Plant, Novosibirsk – 1,5 GWh production capacity0 500 1000 1500

PANASONIC

NISSAN Motor US

Sony

BYD

LG Chem

JCI

A123

Sanyo

Ener1

Nissan-Renault (Fr)

Dow Kokam (KD ABG MI)

GS YUASA

SB Limotive

Hitachi Vehicle Energy

Lithium Energy Japan

Rusnano-Thunder Sky

LG Chem - Compact Power…

Nissan - Renault (UK)

Toshiba

Blue Energy

Nissan-Renault (Port)

Lishen

BAK

SAFT US

SAFT

Hitachi Vehicle Energy

AESC Japon

NEC Tokin (Electrodes)

Mitsubishi H.I.

SK Energy

Panasonic EV

LiTec GmbH

M$

Total Investment (M$) made for LIB manufacturing

Average

Investments:

250 $ / kWh

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013

Page 20: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

BATTERY & POWER ELEC. COST IN EV

20AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION

€ 8,250 -€ 18,100

€ 5,500 -€ 8,000

€ 50 -€ 300

€ 1,000 -€ 2,500

€ 100 -€ 400 € 50 -

€ 400

HV batt. Pack for EV€ 8,150 -€ 15,100

€ 150 -€ 350 € 900 -

€ 1,250

€ 150 -€ 350

€ 150 -€ 250 € 300 -

€ 500

€ 1,500 -€ 3,000

Charger

DC/DCconverter

InverterRectifier

GeneratorInverter

HV batterycell Packaging

materialLV

batterypack

CoolingSyst

HVCables &Connectors

Batt.MagtSyst

Batt.PackagingManuf.

Overall

HV batt. CELL for EV

0 €

2.000 €

4.000 €

6.000 €

8.000 €

10.000 €

12.000 €

Power Elec

Pack Manufacturing

BMS

Thermal Mgmt + packaging

Cell manu

CellActive Hybrid 5 Volt Bluecar Leaf

HEV P-HEV EV

Page 21: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

LIB CELL BILL OF MATERIALS

21AVICENNE ENERGY - CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION

NISSAN LEAF

GM VOLT BMW ACTIVE HYBRID 5

BOLLORE BLUE CAR

Page 22: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

LI-ION BATTERY COST2011-2020

LIB cell average cost

(EV design ; NMC cathode)

LI-ION BATTERY PACK COST FOR EV

22

* For Production > 100 000 packs/yearSource: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013

2015* 2020*2011*0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

2011 2015 2020

$ /

kW

h

Margin

Overheads

Sales & Adm

R&D

Energy, utilities

Direct labor

Depreciation

Others

Separator

Electrolyte

Anode cost

Cathode cost 0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

$ /

kW

h

Pack Cost

Cell

Manufacturing

Other Materials

Electrolyte

Separator

Anode

Cathode

Page 23: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND2025 FORECASTSEV, HEV & P-HEV Battery needs (MWh) CAGR 2012-2025: +20%

Total battery demand (MWh)

CAGR 2012-2025: +12%

23

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

180000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M W

h

NiCd NiMH except Auto LIB except Auto

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV

LIB for EV

-

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

180.000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M W

h

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV

LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013

Page 24: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET 2000 –2025

Rechargeable battery market, M$ for x-EV 2000-2025 (cell level)

Rechargeable battery market, M$, 2000-2025 (cell level)

24

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

M $

NiMH for HEV LIB for HEV LIB for P-HEV LIB for EV

0

5.000

10.000

15.000

20.000

25.000

30.000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M $

NiCd NiMH except Auto NiMH for HEV

LIB Cyl LIB Pr LIB Pol

LIB Auto

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013

Page 25: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

35 MILLION MICRO-HYBRIDS CAR IN 2020

Micro-hybrids car market

2010-2020

Micro-hybrid batteries

25

Powered today by Advanced lead acid batteries

(sometimes in conjunction with super capacitors)

LTO will also penetrate this market (Toshiba -> Suzuki)

Panasonic develop new NiMH cell to adress the micro-

hybrid market

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2010 2015 2020

Mill

ion

Micro-hybrid car sold per year

AVICENNE

Optimistic

Scenario

JD Power

Valeo

Micro-hybrid Full HEV

Battery Advanced lead

acid

NiMH or LIB

Cost ($) 300 3000

Fuel saving 5% 20%

Million Vehicle

sold per year in

2020

35 3.5

Advantages of micro-hybrid compare to HEV

Much more profitable than full HEV: 8 to 10 times less

expensive than full HEV to save 5% gasoline instead of

20% (4 times less)

Much more impact on CO2

Page 26: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

HEV, P-HEV AND EV REALITY OF THE MARKET WILL BOOST MICRO HYBRID AND ADVANCED LEAD ACID BATTERIES

26

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses 2013

Sta

nd

ard

Lea

da

cid

Ba

tterie

s

2010

2015

2020

AFTER

Li-ion

ba

tterie

s

NiMH batteries

STANDARD CAR

88.5%EV

P-HEV

FULL

HEV

1%

MILD

HEV

0.5%

MICRO

HYBRIDS

10%

Ad

van

ced

Lea

d a

cid

NiMH

STANDARD CAR

44%

MICRO HYBRID

50%

EV

P-HEV

2%

FULL HEV

4%

ULTRA

BATTERYLi-Air, Li-S, Fuel CellsLi-ion

Page 27: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

TAKEAWAYS

27

Others: Automatic handling equipment, forklifts, back-up, UPS,

Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, …

Li-ion battery is driven today by Portable PCs & electronic devices

For HEV, the battery technology is today the NiMH

In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion

P-HEV & EV will be powered by Li-ion: 6 B$ market in 2015 - 11 B$ in 2020 & 15 B$ in 2025

EV expectations attract large Chemical companies

New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards

HEV will account for less than 5% of the automotive sales in 2020

P-HEV & EV < 2% by 2020

Micro-hybrid will achieve >50%

Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume & value

A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries

New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS: CAGR > 15% in the next 15 years

Battery Market 2010-2025

CAGR = +10%

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET WORLDWIDE

2000-2025

2000 2010 2020 2025

MW

h Others

LIB

NiMH

NiCd

Lead Acid

2000 2005 2010 2012 2015 2020 2025

Lead Acid (+4%) NiCd (-4%)

NiMH (-4%) LIB for 3C (+3%)

LIB for xEV (+16%) LIB for Others* (+16%)

25 B$

50B$60 B$

80 B$

100 B$

280 GWh

380 GWh

575 GWh

775 GWh

20

10

13

52

32

(CAGR 2012-2025)

15

(Pack level)

Page 28: Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV and EV market 2012-2025 Impact … market 2012-2025 Impact on the battery business ... • The rechargeable battery market in 2012/2013 ... THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY

Christophe PILLOT

+ 33 1 47 78 46 00

[email protected]

Micro hybrid, HEV, P-HEV

and EV market 2012-

2025

Impact on the battery

business

November 2013

THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT

AVICENNE ENERGY

[email protected]

Phone: +33 1 47 78 46 00

Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

28