metrostudy 2010 housing forecast for distribution 1 13 10
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1
© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
SacramentoReno
Bay Area
Central Coast
LA CoastalInland Empire
San Diego
Prescott
PhoenixTucson
St. Geo/Mesquite
Santa FeAlbuquerque
Boise
Salt Lake Northern CODenver
Colorado Springs
DFW
AustinHouston
San Antonio
Rio Grande Valley
Twin Cities
Chicago
Indianapolis
Nashville
Rockford
BaltimoreSuburban MD/DC
Northern VA/DC
Raleigh/DurhamTriad
Charlotte
Atlanta
North Florida (Jacksonville)
Central Florida (Orlando)
South Florida (Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Palm Beach)
Naples/Ft. Myers
Sarasota/Bradenton
Tampa Bay
Treasure Coast
Central Valley Las Vegas
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© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEWOverall Consumer Confidence Index-Monthly
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Dec-01 Dec-02 Dec-03 Dec-04 Dec-05 Dec-06 Dec-07 Dec-08 Dec-09
Dec. 2009 = 52.9
Source: Conference Board
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© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
-7,000,000
-5,000,000
-3,000,000
-1,000,000
1,000,000
3,000,000
5,000,000
Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09
NATIONAL ECONOMIC OVERVIEWAnnual U.S. Non-Ag Job Growth
12 Months Ending Nov. 2009: <4,659,000> Jobs
Nov. 2009 Unemployment Rate = 10%
Source: BLS
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© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
No
v-8
9
No
v-9
0
No
v-9
1
No
v-9
2
No
v-9
3
No
v-9
4
No
v-9
5
No
v-9
6
No
v-9
7
No
v-9
8
No
v-9
9
No
v-0
0
No
v-0
1
No
v-0
2
No
v-0
3
No
v-0
4
No
v-0
5
No
v-0
6
No
v-0
7
No
v-0
8
No
v-0
9
THE U.S. HOUSING MARKETANNUAL RATE OF SINGLE FAMILY HOUSING STARTS
Nov. 2009 Annual Starts= 482,000(+5.7% from Nov. 2008)
(-74% from Peak in January 2006)
Thousands
Source: Census Bureau
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© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
Rank State SF Annual Permit SF Annual Change1 Texas 63,222 -20,4252 Florida 26,574 -16,8023 North Carolina 24,859 -18,9414 California 23,305 -11,7145 Virginia 15,933 -5,3506 Pennsylvania 13,899 -5,6787 Georgia 13,673 -14,0308 South Carolina 13,203 -7,9989 Washington 12,282 -5,519
10 Arizona 12,049 -7,24111 Tennessee 11,174 -5,85812 Louisiana 10,574 -1,51513 Ohio 10,554 -6,95914 Indiana 9,521 -3,32115 New York 9,481 -3,611
Source: Metrostudy - MetroUSA 270,303 -134,962
TOP 15 STATES RANKED BY SF PERMITS – (Nov ’09)
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© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
123456789
101112131415
Nov
-89
Nov
-90
Nov
-91
Nov
-92
Nov
-93
Nov
-94
Nov
-95
Nov
-96
Nov
-97
Nov
-98
Nov
-99
Nov
-00
Nov
-01
Nov
-02
Nov
-03
Nov
-04
Nov
-05
Nov
-06
Nov
-07
Nov
-08
Nov
-09
THE U.S. HOUSING MARKETMONTHS OF SUPPLY OF NEW HOMES
Nov. 2009 MOS = 7.9 MOS
Months
Source: Census Bureau
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© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
-20.0%
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
3Q94
3Q95
3Q96
3Q97
3Q98
3Q99
3Q00
3Q01
3Q02
3Q03
3Q04
3Q05
3Q06
3Q07
3Q08
3Q09
S&P Case Shiller FHFA
THE U.S. HOUSING MARKETANNUAL % CHANGE IN HOME PRICES BY QUARTER
S&P CASE SHILLER and FHFA FIGURES
SOURCE: S&P/Case Shiller & FHFA
FHFA 3Q09 <3.8%>
Case Shiller 3Q09 <8.9>%
8
© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
3Q99 3Q00 3Q01 3Q02 3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09
San Antonio Austin DallasFt. Worth Houston Texas
THE TEXAS HOUSING MARKETSAVERAGE ANNUAL % CHANGE IN HOME PRICES
SOURCE: FHFA
3Q09 Austin = -0.6%
9
© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
-88,900
-50,700
-6,200 -4,300
87,000 76,000
26,100 24,80022,500
-2,500
4,800
9,900
-130,000
-80,000
-30,000
20,000
70,000
120,000
HOUSTON DALLAS/FT. WORTH SAN ANTONIO AUSTIN
2007 2008 Nov-09
JOB GROWTH-MAJOR TEXAS MARKETSAnnual Rate 2007, 2008 & Nov. 2009
SOURCE: Texas Workforce Commission
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© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Nov-09
AUSTIN ECONOMIC OVERVIEW Non-Ag Job Growth: Annual Totals
Source: Texas Workforce Commission
Net Job Losses Nov. ’08 to Nov. ’09 = 4,300
Total Non-Ag Employment
780,900
11
© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
3Q99 3Q00 3Q01 3Q02 3Q03 3Q04 3Q05 3Q06 3Q07 3Q08 3Q09$0.70
$0.75
$0.80
$0.85
$0.90
$0.95
$1.00
$1.05
$1.10
$1.15
$1.20
$1.25OCCUPANCYRENT RATE
AUSTIN APARTMENT MARKETOccupancy/Rents
Source: Austin Investor Interests
3Q09Avg. Rent = $.93/SFAvg. Occ. = 89%
12
© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
10,000
12,500
15,000
17,500
20,000
22,500
25,000
27,500
30,000
32,500
35,000
Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-09
Closings
AUSTIN RESALE MARKET-MLS STATISTICSAnnual Closings History
Source: Real Estate Center
Nov. ‘09 Annual Closings = 20,758
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© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Nov-99 Nov-00 Nov-01 Nov-02 Nov-03 Nov-04 Nov-05 Nov-06 Nov-07 Nov-08 Nov-090
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9ListingsMonths Supply
Listings Months of Supply
AUSTIN RESALE MARKET - MLS STATISTICSActive Listings & Months of Supply
Source: Real Estate Center
Nov. ’099,836 Listings5.7 MOS
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© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
8.7
6.1
25.9
6.06.8 6.7
13.4
4.55.9
9.6
26.4
6.4
0
6
12
18
24
30
<$ 125K $ 125K-$ 175K $ 175K-$ 250K $ 250K-$ 400K $ 400K-$ 750K >$ 750K
Prev. Owned New Const.
MOS
AUSTIN RESALE MARKET – MLS DATASingle Family MOS By Price Range-November 2009
Previously Owned & New Construction
Source: ABOR
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© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
$90,000
$115,000
$140,000
$165,000
$190,000
$215,000
$240,000
$265,000
$290,000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Nov-09
Average Price
Median Price
AUSTIN RESALE MARKET-MLS STATISTICSAverage & Median Price Trend
Nov. 2008 Avg. =$236,041
(Single Family/TH/Condo)
Nov. 2008 Median= $176,300
(Single Family)
Source: Real Estate Center
16
© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
<$100K $100K-$150k $150K-$200K $200K-$300K $300K-$500K +$500K
2008 2009
AUSTIN MLS CLOSED SALESDistributed by Sales Price
YTD Sept. 2008 vs. YTD Sept. 2009
SOURCE: Austin Board of Realtors
17
© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
8,012
6,490
15,940
10,26011,225
12,436
14,638
12,190
10,450
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
THE AUSTIN NEW HOME MARKETANNUAL STARTS TREND: 2001 to 2009
Detached Housing
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© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
6,4906,5116,5877,3018,012
9,315
10,399
11,543
12,436
14,540
16,502
13,152
14,009
15,940
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09
THE AUSTIN NEW HOME MARKETANNUAL STARTS TREND: 3Q06 to 4Q09
Detached Housing
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© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
4Q95 4Q96 4Q97 4Q98 4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q09
Annual Closings
Annual Starts
THE AUSTIN NEW HOME MARKETANNUAL STARTS & CLOSINGS
DETACHED HOUSING
6,490 Annual Starts
7,487 Annual Closings
20
© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
1,264
833
608
433368
308 300
203 172 166
536
734
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
CP / Le a n. R R oc k Ky l e / Buda S W A us. P f l ug. G. Town M a nor D . Va l l e H ut t o S E Aust i n Dr .S pr i ngs
L. Tr a v i s
THE AUSTIN NEW HOME MARKET2009 ANNUAL STARTS BY SUB-MARKET
Detached Housing
21
© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
0500
1,0001,5002,0002,5003,0003,5004,0004,5005,000
<$150 $150-$200
$200-$300
$300-$500
$500-$750
>$750
2006 2007 2008 2009
THE AUSTIN NEW HOME MARKETAnnual Starts by Price Range
The Detached Market
22
© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
4Q89 4Q91 4Q93 4Q95 4Q97 4Q99 4Q01 4Q03 4Q05 4Q07 4Q09
TOTAL NEW HOME INVENTORY TREND(Under Construction & Finished Vacant Units)
Detached Housing
Under. Const. Inv. = 1,420 Units Fin. Vac. Inv. = 1,703 UnitsTotal Inv. = 3,494 Units
23
© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
4Q99 4Q00 4Q01 4Q02 4Q03 4Q04 4Q05 4Q06 4Q07 4Q08 4Q090
6
12
18
24
30
36
42
48Annual Starts Vacant Developed Lots Months of Supply
Annual Starts/Lot Inventory MOS
THE AUSTIN NEW HOME MARKETVacant Developed Lot Trend
The Detached Market
24
© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
Jan-07 May-07 Sep-07 Jan-08 May-08 Sep-09 Jan-09 May-09 Sep-09 Jan-10
Annual Postings
Annual Foreclosure Sales
FORECLOSURE POSTING & SALES TRENDTravis & Williamson Counties
Annual Rate
SOURCE: Real Estate Foreclosures
Annual Postings + 61% from Jan. ’09 to Jan. ‘10
Annual Sales +24% from Dec. ’08 to Dec. ‘09
25
© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
2.9%3.0%3.0%
3.1%3.1%
3.3%3.3%3.3%3.3%3.4%
3.5%3.6%3.7%
4.4%4.5%
4.7%5.2%
5.4%5.5%
6.0%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0%
Elmira, NYBurlington, NCPittsfield, MA
State College, PASioux City, IA-
Lawton, OKAbilene, TXWichita, KS
Amarillo, TXTyler, TX
Midland, TXDubuque, IA
St. Joseph, MO-Brownsville, TXJonesboro, ARTexarkana, TXHinesville, GA
San Angelo, TXCorpus Christi,
Wichita Falls, TX
Top 20 MSAs-Highest Rates of Home AppreciationAnnual Change as of 3Q09
SOURCE: FHFA
26
© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
-13.4%-13.4%-13.5%-13.6%-13.8%-13.9%-14.0%
-14.7%-14.9%-14.9%
-15.4%-15.8%
-16.2%-16.9%
-17.5%-18.6%
-19.4%-20.5%
-22.5%-24.5%
-35% -30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%
Lake Havasu City-Kingman, AZPrescott, AZ
Vallejo-Fairfield, CAMadera-Chowchilla, CA
Fresno, CAModesto, CA
St. George, UTOrlando-Kissimmee, FL
Ocala, FLVisalia-Porterville, CA
Ft. Lauderdale, FLPort St. Lucie, FL
Lakeland-Winter Haven, FLPhoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
Reno-Sparks, NVMerced, CA
Bend, ORMiami, FL
Las Vegas-Paradise, NVEl Centro, CA
Bottom 20 MSAs-Lowest Rates of Home Appreciation Annual Change as of 3Q09
SOURCE: FHFA
27
© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
65.0%
48.0%
45.0%
37.0%
35.0%
24.0%
24.0%
22.0%
20.0%
20.0%
11.0%
11.0%
6.0%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
Nevada
Arizona
Florida
Michigan
California
Georgia
Virginia
Maryland
Ohio
Idaho
New Mexico
TEXAS
Oklahoma
STATES WITH HIGHEST SHARE OF NEGATIVE EQUITY AS OF THIRD QUARTER 2009
SOURCE: First American Core Logic
28
© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Hou
ston
Da l
las /
Ft W
orth
Orl
ando
Phoe
nix
Mar
y lan
d
Aus
t in
San
Ant
onio
MD
- C
Nor
ther
n Vi
rgin
ia
Cha
rlott
e
Cen
t Cal
Inla
nd E
mpi
r e
Ral
eigh
-Dur
ham
NoV
a-C
Chi
cago
Atl a
nta
Salt
Lake
Cit y
So C
a l C
oast
Las
Vega
s
Tam
pa
San
Fran
c isc
o
Jack
sonv
i lle
Nas
hvill
e
Min
neap
olis
Den
ver
National Comparison – 3Q09Annual Starts Comparison
Austin
29
© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
Chi
cag o
Or l
and
o
Atl a
nta
Hou
ston
Pho
enix
Las
Veg
a s
San
Fra
n cis
co
Dal
las/
F t W
orth
So
Cal
Coa
s t
Mar
y lan
d
Inla
nd E
mp
ire
Cha
rlot
te
Ral
eigh
-Dur
ham
Den
ver
Sal
t La k
e C
ity
Nor
the r
n V
irg i
nia
Cen
t Cal
Tam
pa
Jack
sonv
ille
Sa n
Ant
oni
o
Min
neap
olis
Aus
t in
MD
- C
NoV
a-C
Nas
h vill
e
Austin
National Comparison – 3Q09Total New Housing Inventory - # of Units
30
© Copyright Metrostudy 2010
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Orl
and
o
Atla
nta
Ch i
cago
Las
Veg
as
Pho
enix
So
Ca l
Coa
st
Hou
ston
Dal
las/
F t W
orth
San
Fra
ncis
co
Mar
y lan
d
Cha
r lot
t e
Ral
eigh
-Dur
ham
J ack
sonv
ille
Den
ver
Inla
nd E
mp
ire
Tam
pa
Cen
t Cal
Mi n
neap
olis
Sal
t Lak
e C
ity
Nor
ther
n V
irgi
nia
Nas
h vill
e
San
Ant
oni
o
Aus
t in
MD
- C
NoV
a-C
Austin
National Comparison – 3Q09Total Finished Vacant Inventory - # of Units