230159061 california-housing-market-forecast-june-2014
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california-housing-market-forecast-june-2014TRANSCRIPT
CALIFORNIA HOUSING MARKET FORECASTJune 2014
California Housing Market Outlook
Indicator 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014p2015f
SFH Resales (000s) 474.9 416.5 422.6 439.8 413.9 395.7 417.9
% Change 24.5% -12.3% 1.4% 4.1% -5.9% -4.4% 5.6%
Median Price ($000s) $275.0 $305.0 $286.0 $319.3 $407.2 $447.8 $463.7
% Change -21.1% 10.9% -6.2% 11.6% 27.5% 10.0% 3.5%
30-Yr FRM 5.0% 4.7% 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% 4.6% 5.3%
1-Yr ARM 4.7% 3.8% 3.0% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 3.0%
SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
Sales Down for 2014 but Improve in 2015; Price Continues to Grow this Year and Next Year
Units (Thousand)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014p
2015f
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
395,740417,900
Sales of Existing Detached Homes
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014p
2015f
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
$400,000
$500,000
$600,000
$447,780
$463,660
Median PricePrice
(Thousand)
SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
CA: Dollar Volume Steadily Improving Up 5.2% in 2014, Up 9.3% in 2015
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014p 2015f$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
$301
$244
$164
$133 $131 $127 $121 $140
$169 $177 $194
$ Volume of Sales Percent Change
% Change$ in Billion
-60%
SERIES: CA Housing Market OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
U.S. Economic Outlook 2014
Indicator 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014p 2015f
US GDP -3.4% 2.4% 1.8% 2.8% 1.9% 2.0% 3.0%
Nonfarm Job Growth -4.4% -0.7% 1.2% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 2.0%
Unemployment 9.3% 9.6% 8.9% 8.1% 7.4% 6.4% 6.0%
CPI -0.4% 1.6% 3.1% 2.1% 1.5% 1.9% 2.3%Real Disposable Income, % Change 0.9% 1.8% 1.3% 1.5% 0.7% 2.3% 3.2%
SERIES: U.S. Economic OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®
California Economic Outlook 2014
Indicator 2009 2010 2011 2012 20132014p2015f
Nonfarm Job Growth -6.0% -1.1% 1.1% 2.4% 3.0% 2.2% 2.4%
Unemployment Rate 11.3% 12.3% 11.8% 10.4% 8.9% 7.7% 6.8%
Population Growth 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.9% 1.0%Real Disposable Income, % Change -3.9% 1.0% 1.9% 1.1% 0.9% 3.0% 3.8%
SERIES: CA Economic OutlookSOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®