methodology jan. 15

THE DES MOINES REGISTER/ BLOOMBERG POLITICS IOWA POLL

SELZER & COMPANY Study #2132

500 Republican likely caucusgoers January 7-10, 2016

Margin of error: ± 4.4 percentage points 3,391 contacts weighted by age, sex, and

503 Democratic likely caucusgoers congressional district to conform to active voters

Margin of error: ± 4.4 percentage points for Democrats in the Iowa voter registration list

Poll Questions

PERCENTAGES MAY NOT ADD TO 100% DUE TO ROUNDING.

Are you a resident of the state of Iowa and registered to vote here?

100 Yes Continue

- No Terminate

- Not sure

How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016—will you definitely attend,

probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or

the Republican caucus? (Continue if definitely or probably attend one of the caucuses.)

Among likely Republican caucusgoers

Definitely

attend

Democratic

caucus

Probably

attend

Democratic

caucus

Definitely

attend

Republican

caucus

Probably

attend

Republican

caucus

Probably not

attend a

caucus

Don’t know

which caucus

will attend Not sure

Jan-16 - - 49 51 - - - Dec-15 - - 48 52 - - -

Oct-15 - - 46 54 - - -

Aug-15 - - 47 53 - - -

May-15 - - 36 64 - - -

Jan-15 - - 40 60 - - -

Oct-14 - - 39 61 - - -

How likely is it you will attend one of the caucuses scheduled for February of 2016—will you definitely attend,

probably attend, or probably not attend? (If definitely or probably attend, ask:) Will you attend the Democratic or

the Republican caucus? (Continue if definitely or probably attend one of the caucuses.)

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers

Definitely

attend

Democratic

caucus

Probably

attend

Democratic

caucus

Definitely

attend

Republican

caucus

Probably

attend

Republican

caucus

Probably not

attend a

caucus

Don’t know

which caucus

will attend Not sure

Jan-16 63 37 - - - - - Dec-15 48 52 - - - - -

Oct-15 53 47 - - - - -

Aug-15 38 62 - - - - -

Jun-15 45 55 - - - - -

May-15 39 61 - - - - -

Jan-15 42 58 - - - - -

Oct-14 39 61 - - - - -

Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a

Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?


Attended

Republican

caucus in the past

Attended

Democratic

caucus in the past

Attended

both

First

caucus Not sure

Jan-16 59 5 7 29 - Dec-15 60 4 12 24 -

Oct-15 66 3 13 17 1

Aug-15 64 3 12 21 1

May-15 68 4 11 17 1

Jan-15 67 1 15 17 -

Oct-14 72 2 11 14 1

Have you attended caucuses in the past or will this be your first caucus? (If attended in past, ask:) Was that a

Republican caucus, a Democratic caucus or both?


Attended

Republican

caucus in the past

Attended

Democratic

caucus in the past

Attended

both

First

caucus Not sure

Jan-16 3 61 9 26 1 Dec-15 4 65 7 25 -

Oct-15 3 70 8 19 -

Aug-15 3 65 12 19 1

May-15 3 68 9 18 1

Jan-15 7 61 11 21 -

Oct-14 12 63 12 12 1

Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)

And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record “No first

choice” in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

First

Choice

Second

Choice Combined

Hillary Clinton 42 29 71

Martin O’Malley 4 11 15

Bernie Sanders 40 32 72

“Uncommitted” (VOL–only if respondent

says the word “uncommitted.”) 7 5

Not sure 7 10

No first choice 14

Which one of the following Democrats would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)

And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted, or Not sure in first choice question, record “No first

choice” in second choice question and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

Among likely Democratic caucusgoers First Second Combined

Hillary Clinton Jan-16 42 29 71 Dec-15 48 27 75

Oct-15 42 31 73

Aug-15 37 23 60

Jun-15 50 18 68

May-15 57 15 72

Jan-15 56 15 71

Martin O’Malley Jan-16 4 11 15 Dec-15 4 19 23

Oct-15 2 6 8

Aug-15 3 8 11

Jun-15 2 10 12

May-15 2 3 5

Jan-15 1 3 4

Bernie Sanders Jan-16 40 32 72 Dec-15 39 33 72

Oct-15 37 23 60

Aug-15 30 20 50

Jun-15 24 20 44

May-15 16 13 29

Jan-15 5 6 11


says the word “uncommitted.”)

Jan-16 7 5 Dec-15 6 3

Oct-15 3 3

Aug-15 6 3

Jun-15 7 8

May-15 6 6

Jan-15 4 3

Not sure Jan-16 7 10 Dec-15 2 9

Oct-15 3 7

Aug-15 8 6

Jun-15 16 19

May-15 8 13

Jan-15 6 8

No first choice Jan-16 14 Dec-15 8

Oct-15 6

Aug-15 13

Jun-15 23

May-15 14

Jan-15 10

When it comes to your support of [FIRST CHOICE CANDIDATE], would you say your mind is made up, or

could you still be persuaded to support another candidate as your first choice? (Those who said “No first

choice” have been coded as “Could still be persuaded.”)

Among all Dem CGs

Mind is

made up

Could still be

persuaded

Not

sure

Jan-16 n=503 ±4.4% pts 59 40 1 Dec-15 n=404 ±4.9% pts 53 46 1

Oct-15 n=402 ±4.9% pts 42 58 -




Among Clinton supporters

Mind is

made up

Could still be

persuaded

Not

sure

Jan-16 n=232 ±6.4% pts 69 29 1 Dec-15 n=205 ±6.9% pts 64 35 1

Oct-15 n=176 ±7.4% pts 46 54 -




Among Sanders supporters

Mind is

made up

Could still be

persuaded

Not

sure

Jan-16 n=182 ±7.3% pts 70 30 - Dec-15 n=149 ±8.1% pts 55 45 -

Oct-15 n=138 ±8.4% pts 46 53 1

Now, I’m going to mention six prominent Democrats [Dec-15: some prominent politicians; before Dec-15: prominent

Democrats], including [Before Aug-15: people talked about as possible] presidential candidates [Before Jan-16: candidates for

the Democratic nomination for president]. For each, please tell me if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable,

mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know enough about the person to answer, just say so.

(Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list, but Obama always goes first and Warren will go last.)


Fav Unf

Very

Favorable

Mostly

Favorable

Mostly

Unfavorable

Very

Unfavorable

Not

Sure

Barack Obama Jan-16 91*

8 59 31 5 3 2 Dec-15 87* 11 50 36 5 6 2

Oct-15 90 7* 51 39 4 4 2

Aug-15 88 9 43 45 5 4 2

Jun-15 91 7 44 47 5 2 2

May-15 89 9 49 40 6 3 2

Jan-15 86 13 49 37 5 8 1

Hillary Clinton Jan-16 86 12 42 44 7 5 2 Dec-15 82 14 43 39 8 6 4

Oct-15 85 14 39 46 8 6 2

Aug-15 77 19 27 50 10 9 4

Jun-15 88 10 30 58 6 4 2

May-15 86* 12* 39 46 7 6 2

Jan-15 84 15 46 38 7 8 1

Oct-14 76 19 43 33 8 11 5

Martin O’Malley Jan-16 48 10

10 38 7 3 42 Dec-15 43 15* 7 36 9 5 42

Oct-15 43 17* 8 35 14 4 39

Aug-15 33 7* 8 25 5 3 60

May-15 20* 8 4 17 5 3 72

Jan-15 13 9 2 11 6 3 78

Oct-14 13 9 2 11 7 2 78

Bernie Sanders Jan-16 89 6 49 40 4 2 5 Dec-15 80 12* 42 38 7 4 9

Oct-15 82 10* 42 40 6 3 8

Aug-15 73 8 39 34 4 4 19

Jun-15 57 4 27 30 3 1 39

May-15 47 12 23 24 8 4 41

Jan-15 37 12 17 20 8 4 51

Oct-14 29 13 10 19 8 5 58


Fav Unf

Very

Favorable

Mostly

Favorable

Mostly

Unfavorable

Very

Unfavorable

Not

Sure

Bill Clinton Jan-16 87 10 47 40 6 4 3 Jun-15 90* 7 45 44 5 2 3

Elizabeth Warren Jan-16 56 6

36 20 4 2 38 Dec-15 53 11* 31 22 7 5 35

May-15 62 9 31 31 6 3 28

Jan-15 58 11 30 28 6 5 31

Oct-14 44 11 23 21 6 5 45

*We are most confident in the net favorable and unfavorable numbers in the first two columns are the best

estimate. Because of rounding, those numbers occasionally do not reflect the sum of the very/mostly

favorable or the very/mostly unfavorable.

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)

And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question, code second

choice as No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

Among likely Republican caucusgoers First Second Combined

Jeb Bush 4 4 8

Ben Carson 11 8 19

Chris Christie 3 3 6

Ted Cruz 25 23 48

Carly Fiorina 2 4 6

Jim Gilmore - - -

Mike Huckabee 3 4 7

John Kasich 2 1 3

Rand Paul 5 2 7

Marco Rubio 12 16 28

Rick Santorum 1 1 2

Donald Trump 22 11 33



5 4

Not sure 6 8

No first choice 11

Which one of the following Republicans would be your first choice for president? (Read list and rotate.)

And who would your second choice be? (If Uncommitted or Not sure in first choice question, code second choice as

No first choice and do not ask. Read list only if necessary.)

Among likely Republican caucusgoers First Second Combined

Jeb Bush Jan-16 4 4 8 Dec-15 6 5 11

Oct-15 5 5 10

Aug-15 6 4 10

May-15 9 7 16

Jan-15 8 7 15

Ben Carson Jan-16 11 8 19 Dec-15 13 14 27

Oct-15 28 19 47

Aug-15 18 14 32

May-15 10 5 15

Jan-15 9 10 19

Chris Christie Jan-16 3 3 6

Dec-15 3 3 6

Oct-15 1 2 3

Aug-15 2 1 3

May-15 4 4 8

Jan-15 4 3 7

Ted Cruz Jan-16 25 23 48

Dec-15 31 20 51

Oct-15 10 9 19

Aug-15 8 10 18

May-15 5 8 13

Jan-15 5 6 11

Carly Fiorina Jan-16 2 4 6

Dec-15 1 4 5

Oct-15 4 13 17

Aug-15 5 11 16

May-15 2 3 5

Jan-15 1 1 2

Jim Gilmore Jan-16 - - -

Dec-15 - - -

Oct-15 - - -

Aug-15 - - -

Mike Huckabee Jan-16 3 4 7 Dec-15 3 5 8

Oct-15 3 3 6

Aug-15 4 4 8

May-15 9 8 17*

Jan-15 10 7 17

John Kasich Jan-16 2 1 3 Dec-15 2 2 4

Oct-15 2 2 4

Aug-15 2 3 5

May-15 2 1 3

Jan-15 1 1 2

Rand Paul Jan-16 5 2 7

Dec-15 3 3 6

Oct-15 5 4 9

Aug-15 4 3 7

May-15 10 5 15

Jan-15 14 9 23

First Second Combined

Marco Rubio Jan-16 12 16 28 Dec-15 10 14 24

Oct-15 9 11 20

Aug-15 6 8 14

May-15 6 12 18

Jan-15 3 8 11

Rick Santorum Jan-16 1 1 2 Dec-15 1 2 3

Oct-15 2 1 3

Aug-15 1 2 3

May-15 6 6 12

Jan-15 4 6 10

Donald Trump Jan-16 22 11 33 Dec-15 21 14 35

Oct-15 19 9 28

Aug-15 23 9 32

May-15 4 2 6

Jan-15 1 1 2



Jan-16 5 4 Dec-15 3 3

Oct-15 3 2

Aug-15 5 1

May-15 4 2

Jan-15 2 1

Not sure Jan-16 6 8 Dec-15 4 4

Oct-15 7 2

Aug-15 5 4

May-15 7 5

Jan-15 5 6

No first choice

Jan-16 11 Dec-15 7

Oct-15 11

Aug-15 10

May-15 11

Jan-15 7

*“Combined” does not match below for certain candidates due to rounding.




Among all Rep CGs

Mind is

made up

Could still be

persuaded

Not

sure

Jan-16 n=500 ±4.4% pts 42 56 2 Dec-15 n=400 ±4.9% pts 33 66 1

Oct-15 n=401 ±4.9% pts 22 78 1




Among Cruz supporters

Mind is

made up

Could still be

persuaded

Not

sure

Jan-16 n=123 ±8.9% pts 51 48 1 Dec-15 n=120 ±9.0% pts 43 55 2

Oct-15 n=36 ±16.6% pts 37 63 -




Among Trump supporters

Mind is

made up

Could still be

persuaded

Not

sure

Jan-16 n=110 ±9.4% pts 64 36 1 Dec-15 n=86 ±10.6% pts 45 55 -

Oct-15 n=80 ±11.0% pts 32 67 1

(Asked only for each candidate NOT answered as first or second choice.) I’m going to mention the candidates who are

not your first or second choice. For each, please tell me if you think you could ever support the person for president or

would never support the person for president. (Read appropriate names. Use same rotation as horserace questions. If

selected as first or second choice, code as “1st or 2

nd choice” and do not ask.)


Ever Never Not sure

1st or 2

nd

choice

Jeb Bush Jan-16 40 50 2 7

Dec-15 45 41 3 11

Oct-15 48 40 2 10

Aug-15 50 39 2 9

May-15 38 35 10 16

Ben Carson Jan-16 52 27 2 19

Dec-15 55 17 2 26

Oct-15 41 10 3 47

Aug-15 50 12 6 32

May-15 47 18 20 15

Chris Christie Jan-16 43 48 2 7

Dec-15 51 40 3 7

Oct-15 45 48 4 3

Aug-15 44 48 5 3

May-15 34 45 13 8

Ted Cruz Jan-16 33 18 1 48

Dec-15 31 17 2 50

Oct-15 49 27 5 19

Aug-15 54 24 4 18

May-15 49 21 18 13

Carly Fiorina Jan-16 50 39 5 6

Dec-15 57 33 5 5

Oct-15 54 23 6 17

Aug-15 55 20 9 16

May-15 38 27 30 5

Jim Gilmore Jan-16 10 71 20 -

Dec-15 14 59 28 -

Oct-15 17 59 24 -

Aug-15 20 51 28 -

Mike Huckabee Jan-16 51 40 2 6

Dec-15 57 32 3 8

Oct-15 60 31 3 6

Aug-15 60 28 4 8

May-15 51 24 9 16

John Kasich Jan-16 30 59 7 3

Dec-15 32 53 11 4

Oct-15 36 45 14 4

Aug-15 41 40 14 5

May-15 29 28 40 3


Ever Never Not sure

1st or 2

nd

choice

Rand Paul Jan-16 42 48 3 6

Dec-15 47 44 4 5

Oct-15 43 45 4 9

Aug-15 43 43 6 8

May-15 45 30 10 15

Marco Rubio Jan-16 46 24 2 28

Dec-15 56 19 2 23

Oct-15 55 20 5 20

Aug-15 60 19 6 15

May-15 49 18 15 18

Rick Santorum Jan-16 50 46 3 2

Dec-15 54 40 3 3

Oct-15 53 38 5 4

Aug-15 56 35 6 3

May-15 51 26 11 12

Donald Trump Jan-16 24 41 2 33

Dec-15 33 30 3 34

Oct-15 35 34 3 27

Aug-15 36 29 3 32

May-15 28 58 8 6

*“Combined” in the horserace question does not match “1st/2

nd choice” for certain candidates in the ever/never

question due to rounding.

Now, I’m going to mention some candidates for the Republican nomination for president. For each, please tell me

if your feelings are very favorable, mostly favorable, mostly unfavorable, or very unfavorable. If you don’t know

enough about the person to answer, just say so. (Record “don’t know” as “not sure.” Rotate list.)


Fav Unf

Very

Favorable

Mostly

Favorable

Mostly

Unfavorable

Very

Unfavorable

Not

Sure

Jeb Bush Jan-16 47 50 10 37 32 18 4 Jeb Bush, former governor of Florida Dec-15 39* 54 6 32 32 22 7

Oct-15 50 43 14 36 25 18 7

Aug-15 45* 50 10 36 31 19 5

May-15 43 45 11 32 27 18 13

Jan-15 46 43 17 29 25 18 11

Oct-14 50 28 9 41 19 9 22

Ben Carson Jan-16 73*

22*

29 45 16 7 4 Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon Dec-15 72 22 28 44 13 9 6

Oct-15 84 12 53 31 7 5 4

Aug-15 79 8 46 33 6 2 13

Ben Carson, retired neurosurgeon from

Maryland

May-15 56 15 24 32 10 5 29

Jan-15 50 12 28 22 9 3 38

Oct-14 41 8 24 17 4 4 51

Chris Christie Jan-16 51 42 12 39 27 15 7 Chris Christie, governor of New Jersey Dec-15 46 42* 8 38 24 19 11

Oct-15 39* 49 6 32 28 21 12

Aug-15 29 59 5 24 36 23 12

May-15 28* 58 6 21 39 19 14

Jan-15 36 54 7 29 32 22 10

Oct-14 39 45 8 31 29 16 16

Ted Cruz Jan-16 76 19

39 37 10 9 5 Ted Cruz, U.S. senator from Texas Dec-15 73 19* 43 30 12 6 9

Oct-15 61 26 28 33 15 11 13

Aug-15 61 24 29 32 17 7 15

May-15 59 20 20 39 13 7 21

Jan-15 58 21 22 36 14 7 21

Oct-14 52 18 20 32 11 7 30


Fav Unf

Very

Favorable

Mostly

Favorable

Mostly

Unfavorable

Very

Unfavorable

Not

Sure

Carly Fiorina Jan-16 58 28

13 45 17 11 13 Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-

Packard

Dec-15 52 33* 12 40 22 10 15

Oct-15 66 22 26 40 13 9 12

Aug-15 64 15 31 33 8 7 21

Carly Fiorina, former CEO of Hewlett-

Packard and candidate for the U.S. Senate

in California

May-15 41* 19* 13 27 12 8 40

Jan-15 15 19 4 11 13 6 66

Mike Huckabee Jan-16 59 33 19 40 21 12 8 Mike Huckabee, former governor of

Arkansas

Dec-15 53 38 16 37 26 12 9

Oct-15 61 33 18 43 22 11 6

Aug-15 61 30* 17 44 21 10 9

May-15 61 30 21 40 21 9 9

Jan-15 66 28 28 38 21 7 6

Oct-14 59 30 23 36 23 7 11

John Kasich Jan-16 28 43 6 22 26 17 29 John Kasich, governor of Ohio Dec-15 19 46 5 14 31 15 34

Oct-15 31* 33* 8 22 22 12 36

Aug-15 33* 22 10 22 17 5 45

May-15 25 16* 7 18 11 4 59

Jan-15 22 14 7 15 10 4 64

Oct-14 17 7 3 14 5 2 76

Rand Paul Jan-16 45 43

11 34 29 14 12 Rand Paul, U.S. senator from Kentucky Dec-15 37 50* 9 28 30 19 14

Oct-15 43* 48* 12 30 29 18 10

Aug-15 39* 49 11 29 31 18 12

May-15 55 34 16 39 24 10 11

Jan-15 64 25 25 39 18 7 11

Oct-14 59 24 21 38 18 6 17

Marco Rubio Jan-16 73 21*

29 44 14 8 6 Marco Rubio, U.S. senator from Florida Dec-15 70 21 24 46 15 6 9

Oct-15 70* 20 26 43 12 8 10

Aug-15 67 20 24 43 15 5 13

May-15 60 17 20 40 12 5 23

Jan-15 57 20 16 41 15 5 23

Oct-14 54 16 14 40 12 4 30

Rick Santorum Jan-16 52*

34

12 39 24 10 14 Rick Santorum, former U.S. senator from

Pennsylvania

Dec-15 42 43* 8 34 28 14 16

Oct-15 51 34* 12 39 21 14 15

Aug-15 48* 37* 11 38 26 10 15

May-15 56 28 18 38 19 9 16

Jan-15 57 30 16 41 22 8 13

Oct-14 52 30 14 38 20 10 18

Donald Trump Jan-16 54*

45 26 27 23 22 2 Donald Trump, a businessman from New

York

Dec-15 57 38 25 32 17 21 5

Oct-15 59 37 27 32 19 18 5

Donald Trump, businessman and

television personality

Aug-15 61* 35 26 34 16 19 4

May-15 27 63* 7 20 31 33 10

Jan-15 26 68 4 22 36 32 6

Earlier, you mentioned you would “never” support Donald Trump. Do you think of yourself as part of a “Stop Trump”

effort, or just do not support him? (Asked only of those who say they will never support Trump; n=198.)

Rep CG

5 Part of “Stop Trump”

94 Just do not support him

1 Not sure

Earlier, you mentioned you would “never” support Ted Cruz. Do you think of yourself as part of a “Stop Cruz” effort, or

just do not support him? (Asked only of those who say they will never support Cruz; n=86.)

Rep CG

9 Part of “Stop Cruz”

84 Just do not support him

7 Not sure

On a different topic now, how often do you attend religious services, if you do at all?

Rep CG

57 At least once a week

Ask next two questions 13 A couple of times a month

7 Maybe once a month

13 Only on rare occasions

9 Do not attend religious services Skip to “disrupt” question

1 Not sure

How common is it for you to talk about what candidates to support while you are at a religious service—do you do

it almost every time you go during a campaign season, once in a while, or typically never? (Asked only of those

who attend religious services; n=451.)

Rep CG

5 Almost every time

23 Once in a while

70 Typically never

2 Not sure

Do you happen to know which candidate any of your clergy support? (If yes, ask:) Do you happen to support the

same candidate that one of your clergy members supports? (Asked only of those who attend religious services;

n=451.)

Rep CG

9 Yes, know support, and yes support the same

4 Yes, know support, but do not support same

84 No, do not know whom clergy support

4 Not sure

How much a part of your support for candidates is because you want to disrupt the way government typically works—is

that the single most important thing you look for, a major consideration, a minor consideration, or something you do not

want in a candidate?

Rep CG

6 Single most important

42 Major consideration

34 Minor consideration

11 Not what is wanted in a candidate

7 Not sure

Thinking just about two candidates—[DONALD TRUMP] and [TED CRUZ], which one do you think would be more

disruptive to the way government works?

Rep CG

71 Donald Trump

14 Ted Cruz

6 Equal (VOL)

9 Not sure

I’m going to mention some things people have said about Ted Cruz. Regardless of whether you support him for

president, please tell me for each if this is something that you find very attractive about him, mostly attractive, mostly

unattractive, or very unattractive. (Read list. Rotate.)


Very

Attractive

Mostly

Attractive

Mostly

Unattractive

Very

Unattractive

Not

Sure

He’s angered many fellow members of Congress 25 33 18 11 13

He’s guided by Christian values in opposing abortion

and gay marriage 54 24 11 7 4

He could be counted on to base his decisions on the

U.S. Constitution 70 24 2 2 2

He has little foreign policy experience 5 17 44 16 18

He voted to stop the U.S. government from collecting

bulk phone data 28 32 19 8 13

He has voted to cut the military 4 7 45 35 9

He opposes any path to legal residency for people

living in the U.S. illegally 30 32 21 8 9

He has generally avoided criticizing Donald Trump 34 41 12 6 7

Like Barack Obama in 2008, he is a first-term senator 12 33 24 8 24

He wants to phase out the Renewable Fuel Standard 13 24 24 18 21

Ted Cruz was born in Canada to an American mother. Does it bother you or not bother you that he was born outside the

United States?

Rep CG

15 Bothers

83 Does not bother

2 Not sure

Do you consider the candidate or candidates you are supporting to be more establishment or anti-establishment

Republicans?

Rep CG

Cruz

supporters

Trump

supporters

n=500

±4.4% pts

n=123

±8.9% pts

n=110

±9.4% pts

31 24 18 Establishment

52 68 66 Anti-establishment

8 2 12 Some of each (VOL)

9 6 5 Not sure

Which ONE of the following factions of the Republican party describes you best as you think about which candidate to

support: (Rotate list.)

Tea

party

Evangelical

conservative

Mainstream

Republican

Not

sure

Jan-16 22 30 38 9 Dec-15 24 32 35 10

We’re interested in how you decide on a candidate to support. For each of the following, please tell me if this is

extremely important, just important, or not that important to you as you evaluate candidates. If an item does not apply to

you, just say so. (Rotate list.)


Extremely

important Important

Not that

important

Does not

Apply

Not

sure

How the candidate has performed at debates 36 48 12 4 -

How the candidate has reacted to major U.S. news

events 38 50 9 2 1

How the candidate has reacted to major news events

outside the U.S. 38 49 9 2 1

How the candidate has handled media interviews,

speeches, and television appearances 30 51 16 2 -

What the candidate has said on social media 13 31 40 14 3

What people you follow have said about the candidate

on social media 2 13 62 20 3

How the candidate engages with caucusgoers at events

you’ve attended 25 43 13 16 3

How the candidate engages with people at churches 18 39 24 15 4

We’re interested in how you decide on a candidate to support. For each of the following, please tell me if this is

extremely important, just important, or not that important to you as you evaluate candidates. If an item does not apply to

you, just say so. (Rotate list.)


Extremely

important Important

Not that

important

Does not

Apply

Not

sure

How the candidate has performed at debates 42 47 8 1 1

How the candidate has reacted to major U.S. news

events 50 44 4 1 1

How the candidate has reacted to major news events

outside the U.S. 43 47 7 1 1

How the candidate has handled media interviews,

speeches, and television appearances 29 52 18 1 -

What the candidate has said on social media 10 36 42 11 1

What people you follow have said about the candidate

on social media 4 16 65 14 2

How the candidate engages with caucusgoers at events

you’ve attended 28 41 14 15 2

How the candidate engages with people at churches 11 26 40 20 3

We’re interested in issues that affect which candidate you will support. For each of the following, please tell me if this

is extremely important, just important, or not that important to you as you evaluate candidates. (Rotate list.)


Extremely

important Important

Not that

important

Not

sure

The economy 72 27 1 -

National security 79 20 1 -

The gap between rich and poor 15 40 44 1

Taxes 46 48 6 1

Civil rights 34 52 14 -

Social issues like abortion and gay marriage 47 33 20 -

We’re interested in issues that affect which candidate you will support. For each of the following, please tell me if

this is extremely important, just important, or not that important to you as you evaluate candidates. (Rotate list.)


Extremely

important Important

Not that

important

Not

sure

The economy 69 30 2 -

National security 56 40 4 -

The gap between rich and poor 68 26 5 1

Taxes 41 49 9 -

Civil rights 69 26 4 -

Social issues like abortion and gay marriage 47 34 18 1

We’re also interested in traits that affect which candidate you will support. For each of the following, please tell me if



Extremely

important Important

Not that

important Not sure

The values the candidate holds 72 27 1 -

Your confidence in the candidate to win the general election in

November 55 35 9 1

Your confidence the candidate will change the way government

works for the better 66 31 3 1

Experience inside government 13 44 42 1

We’re also interested in traits that affect which candidate you will support. For each of the following, please tell me if



Extremely

important Important

Not that

important Not sure

The values the candidate holds 57 38 5 1

Your confidence in the candidate to win the general election in

November 50 39 11 -

Your confidence the candidate will change the way government

works for the better 57 37 6 1

Experience inside government 39 48 13 -

Do you think this election is more about leadership or more about issues candidates stand for?

Rep CG Dem CG

52 30 Leadership

40 57 Issues

2 3 Something else (VOL and specify)

7 10 Not sure

I’m going to read some words and phrases that could describe some Iowa caucusgoers. For each, please tell me if this is a

word or phrase you would use to describe yourself—just answer yes or no. Rotate. Multiple answers accepted;

Percentages add to more than 100.

Rep CG Dem CG

84 65 Values voter

20 30 Party activist

12 59 Feminist

15 24 Financially hard-pressed

25 53 Politically correct

19 20 Libertarian

10 10 Disaffected

51 16 Gun enthusiast

22 32 Centrist

23 24 Cynic

6 4 Isolationist

62 38 Capitalist

4 43 Socialist

62 30 Devoutly religious

25 9 Neo-conservative

87 88 Optimist

81 51 True believer

16 44 Anti-Wall Street

38 20 Politically incorrect

1 - None of these/not sure (VOL)

I’m going to mention some things caucusgoers sometimes do as part of campaign activities. For each, please tell me if this

is something you have done, expect to do, or will probably not do before the February 1st caucuses. (Rotate list.)


Already

done

Expect

to do

Probably

will not do Not sure

Follow candidates on social media 27 11 61 1

Post positive comments about candidates on social media 15 8 76 1

Post negative comments about candidates on social media 8 4 87 1

I’m going to mention some things caucusgoers sometimes do as part of campaign activities. For each, please tell me if this

is something you have done, expect to do, or will probably not do before the February 1st caucuses. (Rotate list.)


Already

done

Expect

to do

Probably

will not do Not sure

Follow candidates on social media 38 12 49 1

Post positive comments about candidates on social media 24 9 66 1

Post negative comments about candidates on social media 11 3 85 1

Did you attend the 2008 Democratic caucus? (If yes, ask:) Whom did you support? (Read underlined names if needed.

Rotate. Asked only of likely 2016 Democratic caucusgoers who have attended a Democratic caucus in the past.)

2016 Dem CGs who

have attended a Dem

caucus in the past

n=365

±5.1% pts

13 No, did not attend 2008 Democratic caucus

49 Yes, supported Barack Obama

9 Yes, supported John Edwards

17 Yes, supported Hillary Clinton

3 Yes, supported Joe Biden

1 Yes, supported Christopher Dodd

1 Yes, supported Dennis Kucinich (pron: koo SIN itch)

2 Yes, supported Bill Richardson

1 Yes, supported someone else

2 Yes, not sure of support

3 Not sure whether attended

Did you attend the 2012 Republican caucus? (If yes, ask:) For whom did you vote? (Read underlined names if

needed. Rotate. Asked only of likely 2016 Republican caucusgoers who have attended a Republican caucus in the

past.)

2016 Rep CGs who

have attended a Rep

caucus in the past

n=336

±5.4% pts

22 No, did not attend 2012 Republican caucus

31 Yes, supported Mitt Romney

14 Yes, supported Rick Santorum

5 Yes, supported Ron Paul

3 Yes, supported Newt Gingrich

4 Yes, supported Rick Perry

2 Yes, supported Michele Bachmann

2 Yes, supported someone else

7 Yes, not sure of support

9 Not sure whether attended

Compared to:

Study #2130 December 7-10, 2015

400 Republican likely caucusgoers 2,635 contacts weighted by age, sex, and


Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for each party in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2128 October 16-19, 2015



Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for each party in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2125 August 23-26, 2015


Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans congressional district to conform to active voters

404 Democratic likely caucusgoers in the Iowa voter registration list

Margin of error ± 4.9 percentage points for Democrats

Study #2122 June 19-22, 2015

401 Democratic likely caucusgoers in Iowa 1,805 contacts weighted by age, sex, and congressional district

Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points to conform to active Democratic and no-party voters

in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2118 May 25-29, 2015


Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for Republicans congressional district to conform to active voters

437 Democratic likely caucusgoers in the Iowa voter registration list

Margin of error: ± 4.7 percentage points for Democrats

Study #2113 January 26-29, 2015



Margin of error: ± 4.9 percentage points for each party in the Iowa voter registration list

Study #2104 October 1-7, 2014

425 Republican likely caucusgoers 3,677 contacts weighted by age and sex to conform

426 Democratic likely caucusgoers to active voters in Iowa voter registration list

Margin of error: ± 4.8 percentage points for each party

About the Poll

The Iowa Poll, conducted January 7-10 for The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics by Selzer & Co. of Des

Moines, is based on telephone interviews with 500 registered Iowa voters who say they definitely or probably will attend

the 2016 Republican caucuses and 503 registered voters who say they definitely or probably will attend the 2016

Democratic caucuses.

Interviewers contacted 3,391 randomly selected active voters from the Iowa secretary of state’s voter registration list by

telephone. Responses were adjusted by age, sex, and congressional district to reflect all active voters in the voter

registration list.

Questions based on the subsamples of 503 likely Democratic caucus attendees or 500 likely Republican caucus attendees

each have a maximum margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. This means that if this survey were

repeated using the same questions and the same methodology, 19 times out of 20, the findings would not vary from the

percentages shown here by more than plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Results based on smaller samples of

respondents—such as by gender or age—have a larger margin of error.

Republishing the copyright Iowa Poll without credit to The Des Moines Register and Bloomberg Politics is prohibited.

methodology jan. 15

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