methodological choices in problem oriented adaptation research
TRANSCRIPT
Methodological choices in solution-oriented adaptation research:
A diagnostic framework
Jochen Hinkel
Global Climate Forum (GCF)
Adaptation Futures Conference 2014
Fortaleza, 12 May 2014
Point of departure
Adaptation: One word standing for a million things ..
● Diversity of adaptation situations● A national government developing adaptation policy● A co-operative maintaining a communal forest● A farmer deciding on which crop variety to plant● An agricultural extension service wanting to influence
farmers' cropping decisions ● ...
● Diversity of research approaches to adaptation● Even greater diversity of words for calling these
adaptation● Impact, vulnerability, resilience, risk ...
Approaches
ADAPTATION NEEDS
Potentialcapacity
↑Indicators
↑Economic resources,
technology, infrastructure information & skills, institutions
↑Social theory
World development↓
Global greenhouse gases↓
Global climate models↓
Regionalisation↓
PotentialImpacts
Impact analysis
Capacity analysis
Source: Hinkel and Bisaro (2014), modified from Dessai and Hulme (2004)
Approaches
ADAPTATION NEEDS
Potentialcapacity
↑Indicators
↑Economic resources,
technology, infrastructure information & skills, institutions
↑Social theory
World development↓
Global greenhouse gases↓
Global climate models↓
Regionalisation↓
PotentialImpacts
Possible measures↓
Possible options↓
Residual impacts ↓
Efficient, robust,or flexibleoptions
Impact analysis
Capacity analysis
Decision analysis
Source: Hinkel and Bisaro (2014), modified from Dessai and Hulme (2004)
Approaches
ADAPTATION NEEDS
PREFERREDOPTIONS
Potentialcapacity
↑Indicators
↑Economic resources,
technology, infrastructure information & skills, institutions
↑Social theory
World development↓
Global greenhouse gases↓
Global climate models↓
Regionalisation↓
PotentialImpacts
Possible measures↓
Possible options↓
Residual impacts ↓
Efficient, robust,or flexibleoptions
Legitimateoptions
↑Deliberation
↑Consensus seeking
↑Stakeholders
Impact analysis
Capacity analysis
Decision analysis
Deliberative appraisal
Source: Hinkel and Bisaro (2014), modified from Dessai and Hulme (2004)
Approaches
POLICYMEASURES
Culture, norms, BiophysicalConstitutional system
law↓ ↓
Governance system↓
Performance
ADAPTATION NEEDS
PREFERREDOPTIONS
Outcomes↑
Behaviour↑
Cognition↑
Biophysical and social system;culture, norms, constitutional law
Potentialcapacity
↑Indicators
↑Economic resources,
technology, infrastructure information & skills, institutions
↑Social theory
World development↓
Global greenhouse gases↓
Global climate models↓
Regionalisation↓
PotentialImpacts
Possible measures↓
Possible options↓
Residual impacts ↓
Efficient, robust,or flexibleoptions
Legitimateoptions
↑Deliberation
↑Consensus seeking
↑Stakeholders
Impact analysis
Capacity analysis
Institutional analysis
Behavioural analysis
Decision analysis
Deliberative appraisal
Source: Hinkel and Bisaro (2014), modified from Dessai and Hulme (2004)
Question
● Which approach is “most salient” in which adaptation situation?
● “Most salient” from a solution-oriented research perspective● From a pure research perspective, all approaches
may be salient● From a solution-oriented perspective, the “most
salient” approach is the one that offers the highest leverage for advancing “real-world” adaptation practise
Results
Result
Three types of adaptation situations
Type of adaptation situation
Description
Private individual A private individual adapting in her own interest.
Private collective A private collective actor adapting in her own interest (e.g., an organization, a community).
Public influencing individual
A public actor adapting in public interest and wanting to influence individual action in her jurisdiction.
Five challenges faced
Challenges
Identifying the climate risk / adaptation needs
Identifying adaptation measures
Appraising adaptation options
Implementing adaptation actions
Monitoring and evaluation of adaptation
Five challenges faced
Challenges
Identifying the climate risk / adaptation needs
Identifying adaptation measures
Appraising adaptation options
Implementing adaptation actions
Monitoring and evaluation of adaptation
Challenge 2:Identifying adaptation measures
Challenge 2:Identifying adaptation measures
Identifying adaptation options toinfluence individual action
Identifying adaptation options toinfluence individual action
Methods for Institutional analysis
Another example
Five challenges faced
Challenges
Identifying the climate risk / adaptation needs
Identifying adaptation measures
Appraising adaptation options
Implementing adaptation actions
Monitoring and evaluation of adaptation
Five challenges faced
Challenges
Identifying the climate risk / adaptation needs
Identifying adaptation measures
Appraising adaptation options
Implementing adaptation actions
Monitoring and evaluation of adaptation
Appraising adaptation options
Appraising adaptation options
Formal appraisal of options
Conclusions
Conclusions
● We presented a diagnostic framework that provides decision trees for supporting the methodological choices to be made in solution-oriented adaptation research.
● Contributes towards a differentiated discussion on how research may (or may not) support adaptation.
● Highlights the contributions that social science may make to adaptation● Behavioural and institutional research may help to identify
and possibly overcome adaptation barriers before they are experienced in practise
Thanks
● PROVIA guidance on assessing climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation● www.provia-climatechange.org
● MEDIATION internet platform ● Online implementation of the diagnostic framework using click-
able decision trees, together with cases from research, policy and practise that illustrate the approaches taken in diverse adaptation situations.
● http://mediation-project.eu
● Hinkel and Bisaro (2014). Methodological choices in solution-oriented adaptation research: A diagnostic framework, Regional Environmental Change, in press.
● Jochen Hinkel, [email protected]