Methane and the Public Health Risks of Modern Oil & Gas Development

Adam Law, MD, FRCP

PresidentPSE Healthy Energy.

Clinical Assistant Professor of Medicine Weill Cornell Medical College

Disclosures

I have no financial relationships with any commercial or non-profit interest related to the content of this activity

I am board president of PSE Healthy Energy (Physicians Scientists & Engineers for Healthy Energy)

“PSE Healthy Energy provides scientific information to help identify reasonable, healthy, and sustainable energy options. We put our mission into practice by integrating scientific understanding across multiple disciplines, including engineering, environmental science, and public health. We generate, translate, and disseminate scientific research to promote the adoption of evidence-based energy policies.”

Global Warming Potential

Lifetime 20 years# 100 years#

CarbonDioxide

30 – 95 years* 1 1

Methane 12.5 years* 86 34

Black carbon 6.31 days* 4,470 1,055 – 2,240

*2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report #2013 IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

CH4 Global Warming Potential Factors, 1997 - present

19961997

19981999

20002001

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

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IPCC 20 y GWPIPCC 100 y GWP

20 y

r tim

e fr

ame

100

yr ti

me

fram

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CH4 and Black Carbon and Climate

Shindell, et al. Science 335, 183 (2012)

Warning Zone

U.S. Natural Gas2013 Production MMcf % of Total

Conventional Gas Wells 11,255,616 37.5%onshore 10,237,093 34.12%offshore 1,018,523 3.39%

Oil Wells* 5,427,676 18.1%Shale Gas Wells 11,896,204 39.6%Coalbed Wells 1,425,757 4.8%Gross Production 30,005,254 100.0%

http://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/ng_prod_sum_dcu_NUS_a.htm

* Includes gas produced from unconventional oil plays

• Produces CO2 when it is burned

• Methane, CH4, purposefully vented and leaked: During drilling During initial frac fluid flow-back period Continuously at the pad site via leaking wells + equipment During liquid unloading During gas processing During transmission, storage, and distribution

• Produces black carbon, BC, (soot) during flaring and processing

9

Large-Scale Shale Gas Production Creates 3 major Climate Problems

10

Energy Returned on Investment (EROI)

EPA Methodology

http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/Downloads/ghgemissions/US-GHG-Inventory-2015-Annex-3-Additional-Source-or-Sink-Categories.pdf

Natural Gas Systems:Emission factors for hydraulic fracturing completions/workovers developed from GHG reporting data for 2011 – 2013 (reflect net emissions)All other emission factors – based on EPA/GRI 1996 (reflect potential emissions)Activity data based on federal and private databases

Petroleum Industry:Production & Transportation• Activity factors extrapolated from EPA/GRI 1996 baseline using publically available

data on production, inputs, etc. • Emission factors based on EPA 1999 ( reflect potential emissions)• No HVHF emission factors/ conventional & unconventional not separated Refining – based on GHG reporting data for 2010 - 2013

ECH4

EPA Estimated Emissions from HVHF

Table A-134: 2013 National Activity Data and Emission Factors, and Emissions (Mg), by category for Hydraulically FracturedGas Well Completions and Workovers - 2013 EPA Inventory ValuesActivity Activity Data

Emission Factor Emissions (Mg)HF Completions/Workovers - vented 1,677 events/yeara 36.8Mg/eventb

61,737HF Completions/Workovers - flared 835 events/yeara 4.9Mg/eventb

4,100HF Completions/Workovers - RECs 3,156 events/yeara 3.2Mg/eventb 10,229HF Completions/Workovers - RECs that flare 2,117 events/yeara 4.9Mg/eventb 10,326

a 2013 GHGRP - Subpart W data. The GHGRP data represents a subset of national completions and workovers, due to the reporting threshold. Please see the section on “Activity Data” above for more information and the Planned Improvements section of the Inventory report.b Emissions for hydraulic fracturing completions and workovers are split into 4 categories and the same emission factors are used for all NEMS regions.

Observed versus Estimated 2.5x higher

15 studies

CH4 Emissions from the Oil and Gas Sector according to atmospheric measurements

0

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4,000

6,000

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12,000

14,000

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Gg

CH4/

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EPA GHGI 2015 Sum of Process Measurements

(wt.avg)

Life-cycle Measure-

ments (wt.avg)

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600

800

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1,200

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1,800MMt CO2e/y (20 y) MMt CO2e/y (100 y)

MM

t CO

2e/y

IPCC 2014 GWP values

16

Reconciling the Observed vs Estimated

– Bottom-up (estimated) inventories are based on emission factors (EF) developed from a small subset of infrastructure and poorly constrained activity factors

• Under-representation of super-emitters in EF sampling• Underestimate of emissions from the petroleum sector?• Errors in activity data (Zimmerle et al. 2015)

– Missing sources?• End-use fugitives (Wennburg et al. 2012)• Abandoned wells (Kang et al. 2014)• Drilling emissions (Caulton et al. 2014)

National Greenhouse Gas Inventory: EPA 2015

• Natural gas sector = 6,295 Gg CH4 y-1 in 2013• Petroleum sector = 1,294 Gg CH4 y-1 in 2013• Total = 7,589 Gg CH4 y-1

• 30% of total U.S. methane emissions• = 258 Million Tonnes CO2 over 100 y• = 652 Million Tonnes CO2 over 20 y• 26% enteric fermentation

Boston

• Mapped methane (CH4) leaks throughout the city of Boston

• Identified 3356 leaks with concentrations exceeding up to 15 times the global background level

• Signatures strongly indicated a fossil fuel source rather than biogenic source for most leaks

Source: Phillips NG, Ackley R, Crosson ER, Down A, Hutyra LR, Brondfield M, et al. 2013. Mapping urban pipeline leaks: Methane leaks across Boston. Environmental Pollution 173:1–4.

Washington DC

• Natural gas leaks largest anthropogenic source of CH4 in the US

• Mapped 5893 natural gas leaks across 1500 road miles of Washington, DC

• At 19 tested locations, 12 potentially explosive (Grade 1) CH4 concentrations of 50,000 to 500,000 ppm were detected

Source: Jackson RB, Down A, Phillips NG, Ackley RC, Cook CW, Plata DL, et al. 2014. Natural Gas Pipeline Leaks Across Washington, DC. Environ. Sci. Technol. 48:2051–2058

COMPENDIUM OF SCIENTIFIC, MEDICAL, AND MEDIA FINDINGS DEMONSTRATING RISKS AND HARMS OF

FRACKING (UNCONVENTIONAL GAS AND OIL EXTRACTION)3rd Edition

• Unwieldy name, valuable resource!

• Sources are scientific and medical literature, government and industry reports, journalistic investigation.

• Fully referenced; provides succinct abstracts, links.

• Available soon from: Concerned Health Professionals of New York (www.concernedhealthny.org) and Physicians for Social Responsibility (www.psr.org)

August 2015 – 2 EPA rulings

• August 3 The Clean Power Plan pp 1560• August 23 Oil and Natural Gas Air Pollution

Standards pp 591

The Clean Power Plan

• 1st US power plant carbon pollution standards• Reduce emissions by 1/3 2005 standard by 2030 • “Flexibility” US States and Energy Corporations• Fossil fuels “critical component of America’s

energy future” • Power plants “operate more cleanly and

efficiently”• “Expanding the capacity for zero- and low-

emitting power sources”

Oil and Natural Gas Air Pollution Standards

• Builds on 2012 New Source Performance Standards (NSPS) for VOC emissions HVHF

• Overall reduce emissions 40 - 45%• Reduced Emission Completions (“Green”)• Limit emissions

– new and modified pneumatic pumps– Compressor stations and gas storage facilities

• Compressors• Pneumatic controllers

Critique of august EPA initiatives

• Key assumptions– Coal to natural gas ê GHG emissions 32%– Standards achieve êCH4 lifecycle leakage– New oil and gas only

• BUT– EPA estimate 1.5% leakage, Measured > 1.2 –

9.3%– > 2.8% no longer mitigates coal fired power– GWP CH4 EPA 25, IPCC 36 and 20 year GWP 86

Evidence-based policy proposals

• Health, environmental and climate science • Shift away from both coal and natural gas • Power sector move directly to renewables

Number of peer-reviewed publications that assess the impacts of shale (or tight) gas development by year, 2009-2015 (*as of 6/16/15)

Approx. total as of 8/28/15: 598

2009 (6) 2010 (6) 2011 (34) 2012 (72) 2013 (142) 2014 (192) 2015 (104)*0

50

100

150

200

250

Original Research (Health) 2009-2015 (n=25)

84% indicated potential health risks or actual adverse health outcomes

84%

16%

Health: Original Research (n=25)

Indication of potential public health risks or actual adverse health outcomes (n=21)

No indication of significant public health risks or actual adverse health outcomes (n=4)

Source: Hays and Shonkoff. 2015. Toward an understanding of the environmental and public health impacts of shale gas development: an analysis of the peer-reviewed scientific literature, 2009-2015. Working Paper.

Original Research (Air Quality) 2009-2015 (n=34)

88% indicated elevated air pollutant emissions and/or atmospheric concentrations

88%

12%

Air Quality: Original Research (n=34)

Indication of elevated air pollutant emissions and/or atmopsheric concentrations (n=30)

No indication of significantly elevated air pollutant emissions and/or atmospheric concentrations (n=4)

Source: Hays and Shonkoff. 2015. Toward an understanding of the environmental and public health impacts of shale gas development: an analysis of the peer-reviewed scientific literature, 2009-2015. Working Paper.

0.0 0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1000.01E+03

1E+06

1E+09

1E+12

Ratio: Observed/Inventory or Observed/EF [unitless]

Em

issi

on

s m

ag

nitu

de

(g

CH

4/y

)

103

106

109

1012

10 1001 10000.1

• 17 bottom-up inventories and field-level measurement studies

• Compared to EPA national inventory

• EPA estimates of methane emissions too low by a factor of 1.5 – 2

30

Measuring Methane Emissions• High-flow sampler• Tracer flux methods• Chamber methods• Eddy covariance methods• Picarro ring-down laser/mobile lab• Satellite data