megújuló energia világtrendek, 3. ipari forradalom greentech megújuló energia klaszter, 2012....
TRANSCRIPT
Megújuló energia világtrendek, 3. ipari forradalomGreenTech Megújuló Energia Klaszter, 2012. június 28.
Aquamarina Szálloda és Rendezvényhajó 1031, Rozgonyi Piroska utcai hajókikötő
.
Renewables 10 Facts and Trends„Age of Adulthood”
1. Growing Political Support: 2011 at least 118 countries had some type of policy target or renewable support policy at national level (in 2005 only 55 countries)
2. Fastest Growing Market: Last 5 years (2005-2010) total global capacity of many renewables (solar, wind, biofuels,..) grew at average rates from 15% to 50% annually!
3. Increasing Investments: Total investment in RES reached $211 billion in 2010 up from $160 billion in 2009 (GDP of Hungary is $190 billion (2010))
4. More and more Jobs: Globally, there are more than 3.5 million direct jobs (additional indirect jobs well beyond this figure)
5. Geographical diversification: RES is not a play of the Rich anymore! China attracted 1/3 of the investment, it was top wind installer, solar thermal systems, hydropower producer. India 5th in wind power capacity, Brazil getting bigger in ethanol, wind, hydropower, biomass.
6. Substantially growing energy share: RES delivered 20% of global electricity supply (16 % final energy consumption) in 2010. By 2011 will be ¼ of the global power capacity from all sources!
7. Huge Public Financial Interest: More public money went to RES through Development Banks then Government stimulus packages. In many countries it is a popular investment for the middle-class savings.
8. Remarkable Public support: The RES are far the most popular energy producing technologies. (80% in Hungarians supports the RES)
9. Significant technological development: R&D&I Technological improvement with 2 digits/annum. Bigger in size, better performance, growing efficacy and efficiency.
10. Significantly reducing costs: Breakdown in most of RES installation price, in the system price and in the unit price ($/W), cheaper energy production costs.
Renewable Energy Market Global Outlook
Rapidly growing RES share
1. Biomass2. Hydropower3. RES Heating4. RES Electricity5. Biofuels
New Installed Capacity
MW
half of newly installed electric capacity worldwide!
35 Year Wind Power Evolution
Enecron 126 With 7,58 MW (2007)
Wind Power
Next Generation Wind turbines
GE turbine plan by 2012
High 300 mDiameter : 360 m4 MW
EU WP Capacity Top list: Germany 27 214 MWSpain: 20 760 MWFrance 6 080 MWItaly 5 814 MW
(17) Hungary 293 MW
5,160 MW by 2010, 12,710 MW by 2015 20,000 MW in 2020
World Largest Wind Farm
Wind Power
Gansu Wind Farm
10 Year Solar Power Evolution
Total PV installations worldwide have reached 40GW (2010)
In 2011 27 GW new capacity was installed !!!!Total 67GW (2011) and Italy is the front runner with 33% and Germany the 2nd with 29%
SOURCE: EPIC 2011 and EPIA 2012
Solar Photovoltaic Power
Cost of Solar PV
„price of silicon-based solar panels fell from $1,80 per watt to
90 cents during the year 2011”
Grid Parity before 2020?
PV Market: Chinese Manufacturers European Application
Total Global Capacity 185 GWth (2010)
Solar Thermal / Hot Water Collectors
70 million households + Schools, Hospitals, public buildings
EU (2010) Top list: Germany 14 000 044 m2
Austria 4 610 000 m2
Greece 4 079 000 m2
Italy 2 503 000 m2
…(17) Hungary 101 264 m2
CSP Concentrated Solar Power:
Archimerdes CSP against Roman fleet at Syracuse (Sicily) battle1968 (Genoa-Italy)1MW
1. Parabolic Trough Plants (50-300 MW)2. Solar Power Power (10-50 MW)3. Stirling Dish System (10-25 kW/e 500MW)4. Fresnel Reflector Strip plants (prototype)
- Salt (Andasol 150MW,…- Sintetic oil (SEGS 340 MW, …)
Revolution in the EU!!! 2007-2010: 638 MW (98% in Spain) In 2011:+998 MW
(mainly 50MW ParabTrough)
19
50 Years of Hydropower’s Evolution
Installed capacity 20,300 MW
Itaipu Dam 14,000 MW
Aprx.800,000 dams worldwide / 40,000 over 15mExisting global capacity: 1010 GW (2010)Huge Potencial: China and Brasil
100% hydropower: Namibia, Mozabique, Paraguay, etc.
Elecricity from Hydropower
Ocean Energy
Tidal and Wave Power 550 MW are installed (2010)25 countries are involved
22
62 GW Biomass Power Capacity are installed (2010)
Future of Biomass usage in the heating and cooling sector (Hungarian example)
70%65% 61%
11%
9%
2%
9%
5%
10%20%
37%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2009 2020 2030
Megújuló energiaSzénOlajFöldgáz
RES/Biomass+geo
Coal
OilGas
Source: Hungarian Energy Strategy 2030
Forestry in Hungary 1800-2008
European ProductionEuropean ImportEuropean Consumption
Growing amount consumptionand production of pellets, agro brick., wood chips, etc.
Sustainable Biomass Usage?
Growing amount of Forests.
In Hungary 700.000Ha are empty and useless for agricultural purposes
Pellet
10 Years of Biofuel’s Evolution
Biofuels only 2,7% of global road transport (2010: 105 billion liters)
Oil consumption growing more than the biofuels production
Bioethanol: Brazil &USA (88%)Biodiesel: Europe (49%)
Blending Mandate:31 country 29 province (states)
Ethical problems:Food or energy?
2nd Generation Technology ( from lignin, hemicellulose and cellulose – green- or agro waste)
10 Years of Geothermal Evolution
Geothermal EnergySector: 9% growth/year
Hydrothermal (heat) : 78 countrieshouseholds, industry, agricultural sector, spa, balneology
Geothermal /electricity (hot rocks, EGS): 24 countries, Global capacity: 11GW CHP: Combined Heat and Power
Rapid growth in the use of ground-source Heat Pumps!Households, public buildings
30
Rural Renewable Energy
Rural Renewable Energy
Problems:1,5 billion people lack access to electricity3 billion people using (cook, heat) open fire (wood, straw, charcoal, …)
Renewable technologies are providing access to energy services to the remote and Off-grid areas:
Lighting, small electric needs (refrigerator)Communications (Tv, Radio, Mobil)
Small industry
Water pumpingHeating and cooling Cooking
Military and Rescue ApplicationsMobil, rapid renewable energy mission modules
Problems
Classical metod „Money Printing Masine”
Storage of electricity produced by Weather Dependent RenewableTechnologies (Wind, Solar, Wave,…)
Sodium–sulfur (NaS) battery Improved lead-acid, Redox flow (vanadium type)Zinc-bromide batteries.
Energy Storage in Giant BatteryEnergy Storage in Hydroenergy
A 6 MW NaS battery system in Japan NGK INSULATERS
Location (transmission) problemDistance between the Production and Usage of electricity
Stromautobahn: High Voltage, Direct CurrentTransmission Systems Technology (HVDC)
Existing links Under construction
Proposed
Government subventions in the Energy Sector (Global)In 2007 aprx. 288 billion EUR subvention (IEA)
Fossil Energy Support77% = 222 billion EUR
Financial Challenge:New Financial thinking is needed!
