Megatrend Meta-Analysis

Update 1 \ January-March 2011

Biodiversity

Demographics

Security

Governance

Globalization

Energy

Meeting

After postpone-ment due to re-

cord-setting snows that prevented partici-pants from traveling, a meeting of the partici-pating organizations in the Megatrends Meta-Analysis project (MeMA) took place in late January at the New York headquar-ters of the Rockefell-er Foundation. Staff from the Rockefeller Foundation and the Bertelsmann Founda-tion / Bertelsmann Stiftung hashed out key aspects of the de-veloping collaboration, including target groups and major goals.

Futurechallenges.org, which will publish

the results of the Megatrends Meta-Analysis, will serve primarily to stimu-late discussion and action in the com-munities of interest to both foundations. This means target-ing interested and influential individu-als from the public, private and not-for-profit sectors in selected devel-oped and emerging countries. The re-de-signed futurechal-lenges.org will fea-ture research from MeMA and from the Rockefeller Founda-

tion’s collection of Searchlight newslet-ters, allowing for broader distribution for both. It will give the foundations the op-portunity to explore Web 2.0 tools and

with support from

ABOUT THE PROJECT

We inhabit an increasingly interconnected world, yet today’s policymakers and advisors view each issue in a vacuum, focusing primarily on the near-term im-

pacts of their decisions. Efforts to improve this system and broaden the field of vi-sion of our policymakers are critical today, and will be into the 21st century. The Ber-telsmann Foundation, with the support of the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently conducting the Megatrends Meta-Analysis (MeMA), an innovative project exploring the intersections of large-scale trends in society from 2020 to 2100. The central goal of this project is to help policymakers, communities, and citizens understand how some of today’s most significant issues are likely to interact over the next century, and to encourage them to act on this information. MeMA will include a rich, detailed on-line platform for research and discussion, integrating content from the Bertels-mann Foundation’s Megatrends Meta-Analysis with trend-scouting “Searchlights” conducted by the Rockefeller Foundation.

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new techniques for the dissemination and acquisition of innovative thinking.

Futurechallenges.org already plays host to a global community of bloggers, but a handshake remains a better way to form a lasting connection. For that reason, “Future Days” - events around the globe that con-necting individuals face-to-face - were also discussed at the meeting, as was the devel-opment of a Future Challenges Bar Camp. The foundations are looking forward to se-lecting the locations and partner organiza-tions for these events.

Futurechallenges.org

After an intensive bid process for the redesign of futurechallenges.org that

involved several noteworthy design firms from Denmark, Germany and the UK, the MeMA team is pleased to announce the selection of the London office of Headshift (http://www.headshift.com/), an interna-tional firm that focuses intensely on social media.

Headshift’s extensive experience includes work with other think tanks on developing collaborative networks to engage audienc-es and employees. The company has also worked with leading museums on light-weight platforms that permit easy publish-ing and collaboration through simple tools. With other projects focused on messaging within the third sector, Headshift is the ideal partner for the MeMA project.

Staff from the Bertelsmann Foundation / Bertelsmann Stiftung attended the first group working session with Headshift in Germany in March. The outcome of this meeting included plans for process man-agement, content development and the “look and feel” of the new futurechallenges.org.

Searchlights

The Rockefeller Foundation’s Searchlight grantees - a network of organizations worldwide - produce frequent trend-scouting reports on developing ideas and current issues in diverse locations such as Nigeria and Singapore.

As futurechallenges.org prepares for re-launch with its new Headshift design, the Future Challeng-es team is combing the Searchlight newsletters for data, narratives and ideas to add richness and new perspectives to futurechallenges.org. In February and March, an initial set of Searchlight newsletters was distributed to the futurechallenges.org blog-ger community for commentary and feedback. The Searchlight materials and their integration into fu

The Searchlight Grantees

GHANAAfrican Center for Economic Transformation

INDIAIntellecap, Inc.

Strategic Foresight Group

NIGERIACenter for Democracy and Development

PERUForo Nacional / Internacional

SINGAPORELee Kuan Yew School

SOUTH AFRICAMillenium Project (South Africa node)

TANZANIA / KENYASociety for International Development

THAILANDNoviscape

USARAND Pardee Center

VIETNAMNISTPASS

Update 1 \ January-March 2011

turechallenges.org were also on the agenda at the March meeting with Headshift.

The Future Challenges team is now developing the first content for online publication. Based on existing work from the authors of the six central Megatrends papers, new research from the Future Challenges team and material from the Search-lights, futurechallenges.org content will include in-depth lead articles with relevant images, nar-ratives, hyperlinks, video links, audio content and open-source datasets.

Complex visualizations

One of the MeMA’s most critical tasks is to trans-late complex ideas and theories for a broader

audience. Time is scarce for all of us, and to amplify the impact of our work we must make ideas and information accessible and attractive to people worldwide. To reach this goal, the MeMA / Future Challenges team is exploring partnership with or-ganizations such as the California-based Institute for the Future that have expertise in converting ideas to graphics. To see a sample of the Institute for the Future’s work, go to the Future Forces Map available here:

http://www.iftf.org/NOVAFutureForces

As the Megatrends papers are refined and the team moves towards publishing their complete contents on futurechallenges.org, we will be working more closely with our chosen visualizers.

Upcoming activities

In Q2 of 2011, members of the MeMA / Future Chal-lenges team will travel to Mumbai for their first meeting with the Rockefeller Foundation’s Search-light grantees. This event will be the first opportu-nity for the teams to demonstrate to the grantees our capabilities, innovations, resources and drive, and to begin building relationships with this global network of thought leaders. It will also be an op-portunity for the team to offer an overview of the concept and progress of the MeMA / Future Chal-lenges project. Mumbai at night.

Photo credit: via flickr.com, user vis-a-vis’.

The Megatrends Authors

GLOBAL GOVERNANCEBruce JonesDirector and Senior Fellow, New York University Center on International Cooperation

GLOBAL SECURITYBenjamin WittesSenior Fellow, Governance Studies, The Brookings Insti-tution

ENERGY and NATURAL RESOURCESJoel DarmstadterSenior Fellow, Resources for the FutureStephen P. A. BrownNonresident Fellow, Resources for the Future

DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGEJack GoldstoneDirector, Center for Global Policy, George Mason Univer-sity

BIODIVERSITY AND CLIMATE CHANGEWolfgang CramerCo-Chair, Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact ResearchKatrin VohlandGuest Scientist, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

ECONOMIC GLOBALIZATIONScott BarrettProfessor of Natural Resource Economics, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University

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For further information on the Megatrends project, contact:Jonathan Stevens | Director, Global Futures Project | +1 202 384 1994 | jonathan.stevens@bertelsmann-foundation.org

Tom Fries | Senior Project Manager, International Relations | +1 202 621 1720 | thomas.fries@bertelsmann-foundation.org