TENVA

Ankara, 9 September 2014

MEDITERRANEAN ENERGY PERSPECTIVES

MEP Turkey

Provides energy supply/demand outlook to 2030

by sectorby fuel

Two energy demand scenarios: Conservative ScenarioProactive Scenario

CO2 emissions

Energy import bill

Energy investment requirements

MEP TURKEY

The Conservative Scenario takes into current policies and ongoing projects, but adopts a cautious approach regarding the implementation of new policy measures and planned projects.

The Proactive Scenario assumes strong efforts to diversify the energy supply mix to favor domestic energy resources, clean energy technologies and prompt implementation of energy demand management programs.

THE ENERGY DEMAND SCENARIOS

Setting main model assumptions

4

Population

2013-2023: 0.9%2023-2030: 0.8%

GDP

2013-2018: IMF WEO2018-2030: 4.1%

Energy prices

International

Domestic

AN OVERVIEW OFOVERALL RESULTS

ANA BAŞLIKLAR

6

SEKTÖREL ENERJİ TÜKETİMİ, EKONOMİNİN YAPISINI YANSITMAYA DEVAM EDECEK

KÖMÜRÜN STRATEJİK SEÇİMİ

PETROLE BAĞIMLILIK DEVAM EDECEK

DOĞAL GAZIN GELECEĞİ BİR YOL AYRIMINDA

ELEKTRİK TALEBİ KONTROL ALTINA ALINABILIR

YENİLENEBİLİR ENERJİ POTANSİYELİ BÜYÜK KAZANIMLAR VADEDİYOR

FOSİL YAKIT KAYNAKLI KİRLİLİK BÜYÜYEN BİR SORUN OLMAYA DEVAM EDECEK

İTHALATA BAĞIMLILIK ENERJİ FATURASINI YÜKSELTECEK

ENERJİ SEKTÖRÜ BÜYÜK YATIRIMLAR GEREKTİRECEK

ULUSLARARASI ENERJİ MERKEZİ OLARAK TÜRKİYE

ENERGY DEMAND AND GDP

Energy demand is set to double in the Conservative Scenario. 20% less energy would be needed in Proactive Scenario.

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

billion 2005 USD using exchange rates

Mtoe

Energy demand-Proactive Scenario

Energy demand-Conservative Scenario

GDP

PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY FUEL TYPE

Turkey’s energy future will remain fossil fuel based, although the share of RES would increase to 15% in PS.

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2012 CS-2023CS-2030PS-2023PS-2030

Mtoe

Nuclear

Hydro

Renewables

Oil

Coal

Natural Gas32%

30%

29% 22%

25%

23%

28%

29%

31%6%

6%

10%

4%

4%

5%9%

7%

PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR

More energy will continue to be consumed to generate electricity than any other sector.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2000 2012 2023CS 2030CS 2023PS 2030PS

Agriculture

Commercial & Public Services

Other transformation, own use & losses

Transport

Residential

Industry

Input to power generation

PRIMARY ENERGY PRODUCTION

Will not increase as fast as demand

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mtoe 2012$ bn

ANNUAL NET ENERGY IMPORT BILL

Will increase from $55 bn in 2012 to $104 bn in 2030

NET ENERGY IMPORT BILL

Cumulative net energy import bill over 2013-2030 will be more than double that of 1970-2012.

NEED FOR SUBSTANTIAL INVESTMENTS

Total investment need between 2013 and 2030 = $260 bn (in 2012 dollars)

(Of this, $173 bn between 2013-2023)

Electricity sector will account for > 65% of this total,

It will be followed by oil (~ 25%)

ENERGY INTENSITY 1990-2030

Set to decrease in both Scenarios. -5% reduction by 2030 in CS

-23% reduction in PS.

CO2 EMISSIONS 1990-2030

CO2 emissions to double by 2030 in CS . 36% lower in the PS.

0

200

400

600

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mt of CO2

Proactive Scenario

Conservative Scenario

36%

INSTALLED POWER GENERATION CAPACITY: Government Targets vs OME Scenarios

40

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

GWNuclear Hydro Wind Solar Geothermal

Government targets for non-Hydro RES could be exceed in PS

FUEL SHARES IN POWER GENERATION:Government Targets and OME Scenarios

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Renewables Coal Gas Nuclear

Government Target

Conservative Scenario

Proactive Scenario

Future role of natural gas is the key

SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS BY FUEL

COAL

COAL PRODUCTION

Most of Turkey’s coal reserves are lignite.Coal production to more than double between 2012 and 2030.

COAL DEMAND BY SECTOR

By 2030, coal demand will grow ~70% in CS and 23% in PS.

Power generation will account for half of coal demand.

COAL IMPORTS

Majority of the coal demand will continue to be met by imports.

Net coal imports (mostly hard coal)

may increase to >40 Mt (CS) or decrease to 18Mt (PS) in 2030.

SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS BY FUEL

OIL

OIL & GAS EXPLORATION

still largely under/un-

explored…..

Less than 4300 wells drilled

CRUDE OIL PRODUCTION

Will continue to decline, by almost 30% between 2012 and 2030,

assuming no major discovery

Oil consumption by end-use sectors

25

will more than double (CS) or nearly double (PS)

OIL PRODUCTS CONSUMPTION

By 2030, oil demand is expected to nearly double in the PS, and more than double in the CS.

(Road) Transport will remain the largest oil consuming sector

…despite that pump prices of gasoline and diesel in Turkey are amongst the highest in the world.

NET OIL IMPORTS

More than 90% of Turkey’s oil demand is met by imports.

Net total oil imports will continue to increase, from over 30 Mt to ~ 70 Mt (CS) or ~60 Mt (PS) by 2030.

The share of crude in oil imports will be higher than today.

SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS BY FUEL

NATURAL GAS

NATURAL GAS PRODUCTION

May increase next decade thanks to tight oil and shale gas, but assuming no major discovery in the Med

GAS DEMAND BY SECTOR

Will continue to increase in CS but slightly higher than its 2012 level in PS, due mainly to

power generation

TURKEY NET GAS IMPORTS

…expected to increase by ~70% between 2012 and 2030 (CS), … approximately the same level (a few bcm higher) in the PS

SUPPLY CONTRACTS vs GAS IMPORT NEED

After 2022, supply may not cover the expected demand in CS .

GAS IMPORT NEEDS vs INFRASTRUCTURE

Sufficient import capacity, but there is room for Iraqi and East Med gas

SUPPLY-DEMAND ANALYSIS BY FUEL

ELECTRICITY AND RENEWABLES

ELECTRICITY DEMAND by sector

Demand for electricity will more than double (CS) or increase 60% (PS) between 2012 and 2030.

Industry will remain as the largest electricity consuming sector.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 2000 2012 2023CS 2030CS 2023PS 2030PS

TWh

Transport

Agriculture

Residential

Transformation, Own Use & Losses

Commercial & Public Services

Industry37%

38%

18%

36%

19%

18%

21%

24%

26%

2%1%

2%4%

2%0.2%

20%

17%

15%

ELECTRICITY GENERATION by fuel

Electricity generation to increase by ~130% to 2030 in CS. Would be 30% less in the PS.

30%

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1990 2012 CS-2023CS-2030PS-2023PS-2030

TWh

Nuclear

Oil

Renewables

Hydro

Coal

Natural Gas44%38%

11%

28%

20%

24%

27%

28%

17%

7%12%

17%

3%1%

24%

INSTALLED ELECTRICITY GENERATION CAPACITY

To increase to 125 GW (CS) or 110 GW (PS)

The share of fossil fuel fired plants will decrease to 52% in 2030 (CS),

while this decrease will be more pronounced (35%) in PS.

0

30

60

90

120

2012 CS-2023 CS-2030 PS-2023 PS-2030

GW

Nuclear

Oil

Renewables

Coal

Hydro

Natural Gas37% 20%

34%

29%22%

1%

33%

19%

8%

15%

11%23%

1% 7%

5%2%

33%

INSTALLED NON-HYDRO RES BASED POWER GEN CAPACITY

All non-hydro RES to increase in both scenarios.

Wind remains dominant in absolute values. Solar PV has the fastest growth rates.

Wind: 2.3 GW 12 GW (CS), 20 GW (PS)Solar : 0 1.3 GW (CS), 4.2 GW (PS)

Contact: Pedro Moraledapedro.moraleda@ome.org

Teşekkür ederiz...