media trends…what can be learnt from outdoor and prostitutes

Media trends…what can be learnt from outdoor and prostitutes

Prepared for Ink to Internet Seminar by Mike Leahy

IBIS Media Data

Tel: (011) [email protected]

Why am I here today…A unique position in the media industry…

Lived through many changes

Why Mike Leahy...


Lived through many changesAuthored books, written articles

Why Mike Leahy...


Lived through many changeAuthored books, written articlesMedia Inflation Watch

Why Mike Leahy...


Lived through many changeAuthored books, written articlesMedia Inflation WatchMedia Manager Online

Why Mike Leahy...


Lived through many changeAuthored books, written articlesMedia Inflation WatchMedia Manager Online

Currently extending Media Manager into brands,

to establish relationship between print/radio,online/newsletters and social media

Why Mike Leahy...

Why am I here today…A quirky sense of humour

Why Mike Leahy...

Explore the forefront of print’s role with electronic media by…

What are we going to do together...


Looking at the development of print and othermedia. Concentrate on advertising



Looking at the development of print and othermedia. Concentrate on advertisingTry to establish a real state of the media



Looking at the development of print and othermedia. Concentrate on advertisingTry to establish a real state of the mediaUse (highly) selective “do-you-knows”



Looking at the development of print and othermedia. Concentrate on advertisingTry to establish a real state of the mediaUse (highly) selective “do-you-knows”Develop a model of media co-existence



Looking at the development of print and othermedia. Concentrate on advertisingTry to establish a real state of the mediaUse (highly) selective “do-you-knows”Develop a model of media co-existenceUse common sense



Looking at the development of print and othermedia. Concentrate on advertisingTry to establish a real state of the mediaUse (highly) selective “do-you-knows”Develop a model of media co-existenceUse common senseHave a bit of fun



Looking at the development of print and othermedia. Concentrate on advertisingTry to establish a real state of the mediaUse (highly) selective “do-you-knows”Develop a model of media co-existenceUse common senseHave a bit of fun

Shall we start?


“The longer you can look back, the farther you can look forward.”

Winston Churchill,House of Commons, 1944

Can we learn from the past…?

“The continuation of present trends is the least likely possibility for the future. If history teaches us anything it is that present trends rarely continue long in the same direction and at the same pace. They may go faster or they may go slower, but seldom do they go on as before.”

Leon Martel, Mastering Change

But…

If I knew what was going to happen tomorrow I’d invest in it and make a fortune.

So, predicting the future… not science

If I knew what was going to happen tomorrow I’d invest in it and make a fortune.

If you are not confused you don’t know what is happening!

So, predicting the future… not science

Oldest known recognised commercial communications medium

Far, far back… Outdoor


Quite a few outdoor ads discovered by archaeologists, some are over 3,000 years old



Quite a few outdoor ads discovered by archaeologists, some are over 3,000 years old

Best known is at Lupanare “House of Pleasure” in Pompei



Quite a few known in antiquity, some over 3,000 years old


And all of them promote brothels



Quite a few known in antiquity, some over 3,000 years old


And all of them promote brothels Which gives rise to the saying…

“prostitution is the oldest profession, promoting it is the second oldest”


As you leave this function look around you…

… and recall that in Cape Town between 1947 and 1952 only 2 outdoor hoardings were erected.

The last decade… Outdoor

Science fiction…movie Minority Report (2002) has Tom Cruise walking by a row of posters down a street. The posters read his retina, recognise his buying patterns and personalise an ad message and product.


Science fiction…movie Minority Report (2002) has Tom Cruise walking by a row of posters down a street. The posters read his retina, recognise his buying patterns and personalise an ad message and product.

Science fiction no more…stores in the USA are experimenting with software that establishes sex, age and brands being worn. Then offer a suitable product message.


1437, Germany. Gutenberg invents moveable type

Way back… Print

1437, Germany. Gutenberg invents moveable type 1609, Germany. First “newspaper”

Way back… Print

1437, Germany. Gutenberg invents moveable type 1609, Germany. First “newspaper” 1645, Sweden. Post-och Inrikes Tidningar, oldest

newspaper still in “existence

Way back… Print


newspaper still in “existence” 1788, UK. Times of London. Model newspaper for the

next 200 years

Way back… Print



next 200 years 1800, SA. First SA newspaper. Lasted 13 months

Way back… Print



next 200 years 1800, SA. First SA newspaper. Lasted 13 months 1830, SA. Grahamstown Journal. In 1920’s it merges

with Grocotts Daily Mail

Way back… Print



next 200 years 1800, SA. First SA newspaper. Lasted 13 months 1830, SA. Grahamstown Journal. In 1920’s it merges

with Grocotts Daily Mail Late 19th century, massive growth of newspapers

coinciding with universal education.

Way back… Print

1916, NasPers launches Huisgenoot

20th century… Print

1916, NasPers launches Huisgenoot 1965, NasPers launches Fair Lady with Jane Raphaely as

1st editor. First gravure magazine in SA


1916, NasPers launches Huisgenoot 1965, NasPers launches Fair Lady with Jane Raphaely as

1st editor. First gravure magazine in SA 1981, Martin Creamer starts Engineering News


“Newspapers have a far better past than a future”

“For most newspapers in the States, we would not buy them at any price”

Warren Buffett &Charlie Manger

Some wise words… from the USA

“It may be that no one has followed the newspaper business as closely as we have for as long as we have—50 years or more. It’s been interesting to watch newspaper owners and investors resist seeing what’s going on right in front of them. It used to be you couldn’t make a mistake managing a newspaper. It took no management skill—like TV stations. Your nephew could run one.”

Warren Buffett & Charlie Manger

Some wise words… from the USA

Dailies best decade…?

2000 - 2010…

Daily Sun 2002Isolezwe 2002 Daily Voice 2005Son 2005


2000 - 2010…


Soccer Laduma 2002


2000 - 2010…


Soccer Laduma 2002

Nova 2005


Top 5 dailies…


Sowetan 203 352 Daily Sun 414 276Star 163 746 Star 143 084Burger 109 728 Sowetan 125 490Citizen 106 120 Son 115 101Beeld 98 912 Isolezwe 100 786

681 858 898 737

Q 3/4 2000 Q4 2010

Impact of new titles…

Circulation Q4 2010

Daily Sun, SonIsolezwe, Daily Voice 690,163 (46%)

15 “pre 2000” titles 815,657 (54%)

Total 1,505,820 (100%)


Daily Sun circulation…2009 Q1 507,328

Q2 501,734Q3 485,019Q4 492,126

2010 Q1 484,588Q2 433,224Q3 411,124Q4 414,276

The fly in the milk…?

Daily Sun circulation…2009 Q1 507,328

Q2 501,734Q3 485,019Q4 492,126

2010 Q1 484,588Q2 433,224Q3 411,124Q4 414,276

Fall 2009 Q1 to 2010 Q4 is 93,052Larger than Beeld or Argus & Cape Times combined!

The fly in the milk…?

Flipping books… distinct from digital newsletters and online

Observation E-ditions…

Flipping books… distinct from digital newsletters and online

Push vs pull


ABC circ period 2009 Q4 2010 Q4 Star 0 / 149,765 170 / 143,084 Business Day 0 / 37,108 1,167 / 36,111



Noseweek 1,151 / 21,910 1,269 / 20,844 SA India 0 / 6,366 3,195 / 8,773 Nitelife n/a 8,953 / 11,885



Noseweek 1,151 / 21,910 1,269 / 20,844 SA India 0 / 6,366 3,195 / 8,773 Nitelife n/a 8,953 / 11,885

HR Future 0 / 7,743 35,476 / 36,931 Accountancy SA 11,049 / 36,593 7,985 / 37,232


Swedish Press Commission…

… determined in that country that 50% penetration of a geographic or demographic market is key to advertisers and importance to community

And comment…

Swedish Press Commission…

… determined in that country that 50% penetration of a geographic or demographic market is key to advertisers and importance to community

… and if penetration falls below this it starts an inexorable decline

And comment…

Relevance in SA and the modern era is untested

But…

And comment…


But…

… it drives Caxton’s and Media24’s freesheets

And comment…


But…

… it drives Caxton’s and Media24’s freesheets.

… and Paarl Media’s Shopper’s Friend

And comment…

1895, France. Lumiere Brothers show first public motion picture

20th century… Cinema


1903, USA. First motion picture to tell a story, The Great Train Robbery




1910, SA. Wilhelm Wolfram opens 565 seater Wolfram’s Bioscope in CT





1911, SA. First SA produced film, Star of Africa



1903, USA. First motion picture to tell a story, The Great Train Robery


1911, SA. First SA produced film, Star of Africa 1916, SA. First SA epic, De Voortrekkers





1911, SA. First SA produced film, Star of Africa 1916, SA. First SA epic, De Voortrekkers 1927, SA. First talkies shown, Jazz Singer





1911, SA. First SA produced film, Star of Africa 1916, SA. First SA epic, De Voortrekkers 1927, SA. First talkies shown, Jazz Singer 1928, USA. Micky Mouse


1929, SA. First full length talkie screened, JHB


1929, SA. First full length talkie screened, JHB 1929, Technicolor


1929, SA. First full length talkie screened, JHB 1929, Technicolor 1964, SA. Zulu shot in KZN. Stared Michael Caine, Jack

Hawkins and Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi


1929, SA. First full length talkie screened, JHB 1929, Technicolor 1964, SA. Zulu shot in KZN. Stared Michael Caine, Jack

Hawkins and Chief Mangosuthu Buthelezi 1977, Star Wars


Obscene interest in the life of movie stars

The last decade… Cinema

Obscene interest in the life of movie stars Film Academy Awards, the “Oscars”


Obscene interest in the life of movie stars Film Academy Awards, the “Oscars” Multiplexes


Obscene interest in the life of movie stars Film Academy Awards, the “Oscars” Multiplexes More screens exist now than any previous decade


Obscene interest in the life of movie stars Film Academy Awards, the “Oscars” Multiplexes More screens exist now than any previous decade Digital conversion


1896, USA. Guglielmo Marconi granted patent for wireless

20th century… Radio

1896, USA. Guglielmo Marconi granted patent for wireless telegraphy

1899, SA. Edward Jennings achieves record transmission distance of 12.5km




1915, USA. David Sarnoff submits the idea for a “radio music box.” In 1921 he is appointed GM of RCA. Creates NBC in 1926





1922, UK. BBC founded





1922, UK. BBC founded 1924, SA. First radio stations in JHB and CT





1922, UK. BBC founded. 1924, SA. First radio stations in JHB and CT 1925, SA. First rugby match broadcast, Newlands


1927, SA. African Broadcasting Corporation founded. Becomes SABC in 1936



1934, Mozambique. Radio LM starts up. Sold to SABC in 1972 and renamed 5 fm




1950, SA. Springbok Radio. 1st station to carry commercials since 1936. Closes end of 1985





1964, SA. Highveld launched





1964, SA. Highveld launched 1980, SA. 702 starts. Broadcasts from Bophuthatswana





1964, SA. Highveld launched 1980, SA. 702 starts. Broadcasts from Bophuthatswana 1996, SA. Commercial & community radio comes to SA


Internet radio stations2Oceans vibe

More recent… Radio


Broadcast radio using internet as a “community” resource



Broadcast radio using internet as a “community” resource

Good revenues

2009 R millionsMetro (SABC) R308Jacaranda R293Highveld R282


1926, UK. John Logie Baird demonstrates a 30 line TV image

1926… TV


1929, SA. TV is demonstrated in Cape Town & Johannesburg

1926… TV



1936, UK. BBC start the first TV service

1926… TV



1936, UK. BBC start the first TV service 1939, USA. RCA start a TV service

“It is with a feeling of humbleness that I come to this moment of announcing the birth in this country of a new art so important in its implications that it is bound to affect all society”

David Sarnoff

1926… TV

1941, USA. Commercial TV

1926… TV

1941, USA. Commercial TV 1951, USA. First colour transmission

1926… TV

1941, USA. Commercial TV 1951, USA. First colour transmission 1962, USA. Telstar satellite. First TV images transmitted

between USA, Europe & Japan. Plus telecommunications

1926… TV


between USA, Europe & Japan. Plus telecommunications 1972, USA. First cable network, Home Box Office

1926… TV


between USA, Europe & Japan. Plus telecommunications 1972, USA. First cable network, Home Box Office 1974, SA. TV test broadcasts begin

1926… TV


between USA, Europe & Japan. Plus telecommunications 1972, USA. First cable network, Home Box Office 1974, SA. TV test broadcasts begin 1976, SA. First official broadcast starts. Inaugorated by

then PM John Vorster

1926… TV


between USA, Europe & Japan. Plus telecommunications 1972, USA. First cable network, Home Box Office 1974, SA. TV test broadcasts begin 1976, SA. First official broadcast starts. Inaugorated by

then PM John Vorster 1978, SA. TV goes commercial

1926… TV

1982, SA. TV2/3 for Nguni/Sotho speakers starts

1926… TV

1982, SA. TV2/3 for Nguni/Sotho speakers starts 1985, SA. TV4 launched. Aims to compete against new

station M-Net 1986, SA. M-Net launched

1926… TV


station M-Net 1986, SA. M-Net launched 1990, SA. M-Net reaches 500,000 subscribers.

Launches KTV

1926… TV



Launches KTV 1995, SA. DStv starts

1926… TV



Launches KTV 1995, SA. DStv starts 2000, SA. DStv reaches 490,000 subscribers with 50

channelsDStv starts interactive service

1926… TV

DStv…over 2,000,000 subscribers (SA only)over 100 channels

Top TV

More recent… TV

1939, First digital computer

Latest… Internet

1939, First digital computer 1947, Transistor

Latest… Internet

1939, First digital computer 1947, Transistor 1948, First machine with memory & storage of

information

Latest… Internet


information 1951, First commercially available computer

Latest… Internet


information 1951, First commercially available computer 1956, First hard disks. 5MB on 50x24 inch disks

Latest… Internet


information 1951, First commercially available computer 1956, First hard disks. 5MB on 50x24 inch disks 1959, Integrated circuits

Latest… Internet


information 1951, First commercially available computer 1956, First hard disks. 5MB on 50x24 inch disks 1959, Integrated circuits 1963, X-Y Position indicator for a display system. We

call it the Mouse

Latest… Internet


information 1951, First commercially available computer 1956, First hard disks. 5MB on 50x24 inch disks 1959, Integrated circuits 1963, X-Y Position indicator for a display system. We

call it the Mouse 1969, First of the Internets, ARPANET

Latest… Internet

1971, Intel invents the microprocessor for a Japanese calculator

Latest… Internet


1972, First modem

Latest… Internet


1972, First modem 1973, TCO/IP, the future basis of the Internet, invented

by Vin Cerf

Latest… Internet



by Vin Cerf 1974, First desktop computer

Term “Internet” first used

Latest… Internet




Term “Internet” first used 1975, Microsoft founded

Latest… Internet




Term “Internet” first used 1975, Microsoft founded 1979, First Apple computer

Latest… Internet




Term “Internet” first used 1975, Microsoft founded 1979, First Apple computer 1981, First IBM PC

Latest… Internet




Term “Internet” first used 1975, Microsoft founded 1979, First Apple computer 1981, First IBM PC 1983, Windows announced (released 1990), Excel

Latest… Internet

1990, Tim Berners-Lee writes basis of WWW. Released to the world in 1992

Latest… Internet


1991, Internet allowed to go commercialSA is second country in Africa to be connected

Latest… Internet



1992, 1 million internet hosts, Rises to 16 million inJan 1997

Latest… Internet




1994, Mosaic, the first popular internet browser

Latest… Internet




1994, Mosaic, the first popular internet browser 1995, Amazon opens for business

Latest… Internet




1994, Mosaic, the first popular internet browser 1995, Amazon opens for business 1996, Internet Explorer 3 released

Latest… Internet




1994, Mosaic, the first popular internet browser 1995, Amazon opens for business 1996, Internet Explorer 3 released 2000, Dot com turns into Dot bomb

Latest… Internet

SA Internet user traffic Source: Alexa.com (& DMMA ave daily unique visitors in ‘000, November 2010)1. Google.co.za2. Facebook3. Google.com4. YouTube5. Yahoo6. Wikipedia7. Twitter9. GumTree.co.za (no DMMA stats)10. News24 (182.5)11. LinkedIn

Internet… most popular sites

12. Standard Bank (non-commercial)13. ABSA Bank (non-commercial)14. Windows Live15. First National Bank (non-commercial)16. WordPress.com (blogs)17. Amazon.com18. MSN.com (167.3)19. Independent Online (59.3)20. Microsoft21. Flickr22. Bing23. MyBroadband (22.4)24. BBC Online


25. BidOrBuy (no DMMA stats)26. About.com27. Co.za Domain (non-commercial)28. Mweb (68.5)29. PayPal30. WordPress31. Internet Movie Database32. Google UK33. NedSecure (non-commercial)34. BizCommunity (12.8)35. Supersport (45.4)36. AWeberSystems37. Apple


38. PirateBay (Bittorent)39. TimesLive (34.9)40. Sport24 (41.2)41. Adobe42. eHow43. GoogleUserContent44. Kalahari.net (no DMMA stats)45. ZA.net (non-commercial)46. JunkMailClassifieds (35.0)47. EzineArticles48. ESPNcrickinfo49. MyCityDeal.co.za (commerce site)50. Fin24 (30.6)


StarCirculation Q4 2010 143,084Readers ave issue (AMPS2009/10) 561,0004/5 out of 5 readers 323,000 (58%)

News24Unique browsers ave day Nov ‘10 182,000Unique browsers ave freq Nov ‘10 3.96

IOLUnique browsers ave day Nov ’10 59,300Unique browsers ave freq Nov ’10 3.74

.

Print vs Internet…

Average Print Consumer loyalvsAverage Online Consumer disloyal



Why…Distribution limitations of print = less choiceNo distribution limitations of online, because “they can”

.



Why…Distribution limitations of print = less choiceNo distribution limitations of online, because “they can”

Massive implications for media planning and buying

.


Medium 1975 1990 2000 2010TV Stations nil 7 56 100Radio Stations (separate buys) 7 34 105 138Daily Newspapers 22 22 17 21Major Weeklies 19 25 21 26Consumer Magazines 180 250 480 655Business to Business 219 300 580 700Community Newspapers uncounted uncounted 260 470Web Pages N/A N/A 1.4 bn trillions

Growth of media in SA…

MediumRm % Rm %

Dailes 1307 15 3501 12Weeklies 583 7 1644 6Communities 412 5 1635 6Mags 874 10 2112 7Business to Business 373 4 494 3Total print 3722 42 9386 33Cinema 70 1 351 1Radio 1225 14 3688 13Outdoor 327 4 1226 4TV 3572 40 13408 47Internet 14 0 577 2Total 8979 100 28778 100

2000 2010

Ad value of media in SA…

Time lag between invention and commercial application

What can be learnt…

Time lag between invention and commercial application Pace of change is accelerating


Time lag between invention and commercial application Pace of change is accelerating Technology is an enabler


Time lag between invention and commercial application Pace of change is accelerating Technology is an enabler New media change the old


Time lag between invention and commercial application Pace of change is accelerating Technology is an enabler New media change the old No medium has disappeared!


Time lag between invention and commercial application Pace of change is accelerating Technology is an enabler New media change the old No medium has disappeared! So lets not forget the non-new in the hype of the

new-new.


Ministry of Posts & Telecommunications, Japan model…

How do media coexist…

Informationage

How do media coexist…

AudienceSize

MovieBook

Special interestMagazine

Outdoor

Newspaper

Radio

Television

Telephone

Letter

Conversation

Weekly mag.

Monthly mag.

Theatre

NEW MEDIAAREA

People do not consume media equally…

Media consumption imperatives…

High Print/Low TV

Low Print/Low TV

High Print/High TV

High TV/Low print

Print

TV

Questions?

Thank you

To contact Mike Leahy011-465-3704

[email protected]

But there are underlying pressures I constructed my 10 megatrends some 20 years ago for

a presentation to a international Coca Cola media forum

Their relevance remains undiminished

The future…not a science

Marshall McLuhan “medium is the message” Print, online = cool = active involvement TV, radio = hot = inactive involvement

Another dimension…. heat

Three dimensional model…

Media are products to be consumed in much the same way as baked beans or paint, irrespective of whether they are advertiser driven or a result of consumer demand

More media means increasing competition for people’s time

The net result is the average medium must get a smaller proportion of overall consumptionBY a smaller proportion of the average person’s timeAND/OR fewer people consuming

Trend 1

The other side of the explosion of media availability is the rise of media specifically geared to tacking smaller homogeneous groups of people on a geographic, racial or special interest basis

“We are the world’s last great general interest mag…”

Readers Digest ad of a few years ago Of the hundreds of mags launched since 1987 only

one success is classified as general interest The old Highveld is now 94.7, Jacaranda, Ofm M-Net is cannibalising itself into DStv

Trend 2Broadcasting to narrowcasting

Ultimately, the extent to which one can narrowcast will depend upon the viability of medium’s reach of a target, its value and its editorial/advertising package

Personal salesmen may end up cheaper

Trend 2Broadcasting to narrowcasting

Traditional thinking…“Anything good is worth paying for”“Anything paid for must be valued”

Thus…Paid media are good, free media are less good

But…Radio is freeTV is “free” to large numbers of peopleInternet is largely freeMuch print is free

Push vs pull, Paid vs Free…

Mass media cost an arm and a leg merely to buy a single meaningful unit

Smaller, narrowcast media can afford to charge less so that more frequency OR greater impact (ie., larger sizes) can be purchased within a budget

But along with this trend is…

Trend 3High unit cost to low unit cost

A mass medium’s rates is based on its own (and its competitive) cost and profit structure

Small media do not enjoy the economies of scale of large media

Hence the trend to narrowcasting is at the expense of cost efficiency

As we have seen audience delivery is getting proportionately more expensive

This is less of a problem because of the next trend…

Trend 4Cheap CPM to expensive

Traditional media research and planning processes are orientated towards thinking cost efficiency of audience delivery rather than the more important issue of return on media investment – “is it going to work”

The “where it will work best” decision has tended to be the realm of the creative and marketing decision maker, and is increasing led by retail and direct response techniques

Trend 5Cost efficiency to cost effectiveness

As media narrowcasts the distinction between commission bearing and non-commission bearing media blurs

Sponsorship, promotions, PR are all increasing at levels far exceeding traditional media advertising

Most marketers automatically think media in its broadest context, not those in AMPS or listed in Media Manager

Trend 6: Above vs below the line to Blow the line

AMPS is no longer the only game in town AMPS meters now over 16 years old Technology to the fore, allied to techniques of direct

response: scanners, databases, e-commerce Proprietary research, media owner research,

innovative marketing services departments, WWW But frail samples and data overload

Trend 7More data faster

All rate cards are now printed on rubber

Add value

Trend 8Sellers market to buyers market

Paradoxically, more media availability results in fewer strong media owners

This despite legislation These are able to exert considerable pressure via

finance AND supplies Moreover these strong media owners are able to

exert influence on buyers out of proportion to their already considerable market positions

Trend 9: More oligopolies(fewer competitors)

Accelerating change in:societytechnologymarketscompetitionthe communications industrythe data industry

The drums of change are now a whole symphony!

Trend 10Accelerating volatility

Media rates don’t go down

The bottom lineFor advertisers

Media rates don’t go down Like junkies you have to buy more media to get the

same performance



same performance Media schedules have to get longer to do the same

job




job Few budgets increase in proportion to media inflation

More money – less bang




job Few budgets increase in proportion to media inflation

More money – less bang Media rate inflation/performance deflation/growing

communications clutter is making non-advertising communication alternatives ever more viable


Decision making is getting harder, short cuts have to be made(the reality – a media buyer selecting 10 alternatives out of 100 has 17,310,000,000,000 different combinations. If she could analyse 1 alternative every second, it would take ½ a million years to complete the analysis)

The bottom lineFor media planners/buyers


Greater reliance on qualitative information, but lack of resources to understand or manage the process



Greater reliance on qualitative information, but lack of resources to understand or manage the process

Increasing pressure on planning resources: time, energy, experience, need for negotiation etc etc


Increased pressure on salesfolk to deliver. But it is harder to get to buyers

The bottom lineFor media owners


Harder to pull in advertisers, a shrinking list



Harder to pull in advertisers, a shrinking list Consumers are brought in by content, content,

content. But quality editorial staff are harder to find and manage





Explosion of “niches”- not enough money in those niches- barriers to entry increasingly lower- barriers to success increasingly higher





Explosion of “niches”- not enough money in those niches- barriers to entry increasingly lower- barriers to success increasingly higher

Media owners have to run harder to stand still


Please don’t rush out and find a new career!I have not intended to be negative, just realistic

The bottom line...

Please don’t rush out and find a new career!I have not intended to be negative, just realistic

Remember, media is still the most fun you can have with your clothes on!

The bottom line...

Media Inflation stats cover cost and associates this with performance

It does not cover value Performance stats are the lowest common

denominator Base rates are used Media owners do not have to justify rates! If buyers

do not like the rate they can turn to an alternative medium. Or chose not to advertise!

Thus Media Inflation Watch represents a monitor of trends, not absolutes!

But first ... a warning

Media InflationIs it a problem?

Background

The two components of media inflation:

Cyclical inflationrates go up more or less depending on the state of the economy and competitive pressure.This is rate inflation.

Structural inflationthe average medium delivers less and less each year. The ‘pack sizes’ are getting smaller.This is performance deflation.

Media Inflation components

Like a can of beans! Each year the retail price goes up...But each year there are fewer beans in the can!

It is not a uniquely SA phenomenon.It is an international problem.

Media Inflation components

Media planners were last polled on issues affecting their business by Financial Mail in the AdFocus supplement of 1997:

But is media inflation a problem?

Media inflation was…- voted the most serious issue in media by media planners- voted as more serious than the shenanigans of the IBA- voted as more serious than the future of TV

Why?- planners concerned that media inflation is devaluing the currency of brand advertising


I would suggest that nothing has changed since that ‘vote’ back in 1997!

Let us look at media compared to a long term index with relevance to marketing


But which long term relevant index? Consumer Price Index Producer Price Index Mars bar index Big Mac index


A true measure of the cost of living – a six pack of Castle Lager – the brand that stood the test of time

Divide the cost of a unit of advertising by the cost of a sixpack of Castle.

Then compare the quantity of sixpacks sold in order to determine the break-even sales figure for SAB’s return on their advertising investment.

Introducing the Charles Glass index

Charles Glass Index

• Cost of an 8 title schedule rose by 2,152% between 1975 and 2000.

• In 1975 SAB had to sell almost 7,000 sixpacks in order to break even on the package of space.

• In 2000 the number of sixpacks to break even had risen to over 11,500 – a 68% increase.

• Circulation has scarcely changed in 25 years.

PrintFPFC/30x5

1975 2000 %Increase

8 x titles R8310 R187,164 + 2152%

6 packs 6,925 11,596 + 68%

Circulation 1,813,000 1,869,370 + 3%

Charles Glass Index

• Cost of 1 spot in drive time on each of 12 stations rose by 20,118% between 1975 and 2000.

• In 1975 SAB had to sell 97 sixpacks in order to break even on the package of airtime.

• In 2000 the number of sixpacks to break even had risen to over 1,466 – an increase of over 1,400%.

• Performance cannot be compared. However the footprint of some of these stations is dramatically decreased!

Radio30” drive

1975 2000 Q4 %Increase

12 x stations R117 R23,655 + 20,118%

6 packs 97 1,466 + 1405%

Performance N/a N/a + N/a

Charles Glass Index

TVNo commercial TV in 1975.First spot – in 1978 – was auctioned for an outrageous R10,000.

Charles Glass Index

• Adspend – above the line – increased by over 5,200% in 25 years.

• But the proportion of ATL as a percentage of total spend on commercial communications decreases.

• In order to maintain their share of ATL voice between 1975 and 2000, SAB would have had to increase spend by over 5,000%. And still their share of total communications voice would have shrunk!

Adspendincrease

1975 2000 %Increase

ATL R169 mil R8,978 mil + 5,212%

% of total spend

60.4% Much less than 50%

+ 1405%

6 packs 141 mil 556 mil + 295%

Conclusion...

Media Inflation is a real problem for Mr. Charles Glass and Castle

Charles Glass index

Media Inflation

1987 - 2008

% YOY Base % YOY Base % YOY Base08 on 07 11.5 559 10.7 1192 4.8 265107 on 05 7.1 501 12.3 1077 16.3 2530

06 on 05 4.6 468 10.1 959 17.3 2175

05 on 04 3.4 448 5.9 871 19.8 1854

04 on 03 1.4 433 9.4 823 23.1 1548

03 on 02 5.9 427 5.7 752 14.7 1257

02 on 01 9.2 403 4.7 711 16.9 1096

01 on 00 5.7 369 10.2 679 8.3 938

00 on 99 5.3 349 8.3 617 11.1 866

99 on 98 5.2 332 11.6 569 11.5 779

98 on 97 6.9 315 14.1 510 17.8 699

97 on 96 8.6 295 13.2 447 19.9 593

96 on 95 7.4 272 12.7 395 12.5 495

95 on 94 8.7 253 13.6 350 14.8 440

94 on 93 9.0 233 14.7 308 20.3 383

93 on 92 9.7 213 17.7 269 13.1 319

92 on 91 13.9 195 14.4 228 19.2 282

91 on 90 15.3 171 18.8 200 32.3 236

90 on 89 14.4 148 8.9 168 19.1 179

89 on 88 14.7 129 15.3 154 19.3 150

CPI All media Rate AdSpend

21 year view...

Rate...CPI: 559

All Media: 1192

AdSpend: 2651

Spend is up by 2641%

Compared to rates at 1092%

Compared to the CPI of 459%

Non media spend – promotions, sponsorship, BTL etc etc etc has grown even more.

Hey, what is all the fuss about...

Down and dirty...a look at the more recent details

Media Megatrends

media trends…what can be learnt from outdoor and prostitutes

Documents