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Measuring Environmental Impacts

David MellKnowledge Manager – NERIP

Conversation with NERIP, 7 November 2007

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70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

ind

ex19

90

=10

0

GDP

Greenhouse gasemissions

Kyoto target

Measuring Environmental Impacts

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Problem? What Problem? …

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

ind

ex19

90

=10

0

GDP

Greenhouse gasemissions

Kyoto target

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… the shape of the regional economy is changing

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Man

ufac

turin

g

Pub

lic S

ecto

r

Bus

ines

sS

ervi

ces

Tou

rism

,T

rans

port

and

Dis

trib

utio

n

Con

stru

ctio

n

Prim

ary

Pe

rce

nta

ge

of G

VA

by

Se

cto

r

1992

1997

2002Percentageof North EastGVA

Manu-facturing

Public Sector

BusinessServices

Tourism,Transport, Distribution

Con-struction

Primary

Manufacturing accounting for less

Services accounting for more

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Production and Consumption Perspectives

Place of Production

Pla

ce o

f C

on

sum

pti

on

UK Abroad

UK

Ab

roa

d

Goods and services produced and consumed in UK

Imports: consumed in UK, produced elsewhere

Exports: produced in UK, consumed elsewhere

Rest of the World

Consumption Focus

Pro

du

ctio

n F

ocu

s

Complementary perspectives

Production: Efficiency, technology, etc

Consumption: Behaviour, lifestyles, etc

REAP: Addresses the consumption perspective

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UK CO2 Emissions

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Household

Capital investment

Government

Other

Emissions fromproduction

Emissions fromconsumption

10.76 t/cap 11.81 t/cap

CO

em

iss

ion

s t/

ca

p2

Understanding whether numbers are quoted from a production or consumption perspective is vital

Understanding whether numbers are quoted from a production or consumption perspective is vital

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Ecological Footprint

The land area required to provide continuously all the natural resources and services for the consumption of a given population wherever that land might be

Measured in global hectares per capita(gha/cap)

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Comparative Ecological Footprints

W Europe 5.1gha/cap

UK: 5.4gha/cap

USA: 9.5gha/cap

China: 1.5gha/cap

World:

• Supply 1.8gha/cap

• Demand 2.2gha/cap

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The challenge for regional development

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Overview of

Resources and Energy Analysis Program Key outputs

• Ecological Footprint (gha/capita)

• Carbon Footprint (tonnes CO2/capita)

Based on detailed analysis of how the UK economy works

Has a consumption focus Can be used to make environmental assessments

of policy Developed by the Stockholm Environment

Institute• WWF and SCP-Net are key partners

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REAP User InterfaceNE Footprint = 5.185 gha/cap

Final demands of the economy

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Footprints can be disaggregated by type of consumption

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Using REAP as an interactive database

Explore footprints by geography Explore components of footprints

4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5 5.1 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5 5.6

casttyne

newcdurhberwalnwnortteesdarlblyt

chesstocsoutgateredcmiddsundderwwanssedghart

weareasi

EFP (gha/cap)

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North East Household Footprint: Top 10 Sources

Food

Domestic fuel and landconsumption

Catering services

Electricity and gasdistribution

Private transport (car fuel)

Transport services

Other recreational items &equipment

UK resident holidays abroad

Purchase of vehicles

Household appliances

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Consumption behaviour is measured using over 100 separate variables

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We can explore policy options by creating scenarios ….

Modify one or more consumption behaviour variables

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… and looking at the impacts

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Key points

REAP measures impact of consumption behaviour

• Outputs: footprint measures (CO2, ecological)

• Inputs: consumption behaviour (~100 variables)

Policy scenarios• Views of how consumption behaviour might change in

response to policy interventions

• Effect of such changes on footprint measures

The holy alliance• Policy wonks and modelling nerds

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But does this mean anything in the real world ?

Examples of REAP in action• Evaluation of housing policy: Leeds City Region

• Tees Valley Footprint Report

• Evaluation of impact of regional strategies on climate change: Y&H Assembly

• Up and coming: evaluation of sustainable transport policy

Consumption perspective (REAP)• Influencing individual behaviour

• Regional vs local roles

Production perspective• Other tools: REEIO, development of regional

environmental accounts (DUBS Model)

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Measuring Environmental Impact Regional stages of development

Stage 1: Awareness

• Aware of need to engage with tools like REAP and REEIO

• Cautious policy users, sometimes frustrated technical users

• Evaluations contracted out

Stage 2: Stepping Forward

• Policy and technical users starting to work together

• Developing evidence base that is influencing key regional documents

• Clear home for the evidence base agreed

Stage 3: The confidently capable region

• Policy users can frame ideas in terms of “evidence base”

• Technical users extending/developing the “evidence base”