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Gerald McKinstry Opinion > Columnists

McKinstry: New YorkRepublicans are swimmingupstreamNovember 8, 2012 3:18 PM By GERALD MCKINSTRY

Photo credit: Rory Glaeseman | Congresswoman Nan Hayworth speaks durings a news conference about rebuilding the Forge

Hill Road bridge in New Windsor. (Aug. 30, 2012)

Joanne Cox wasn't thrilled with her options on Election Day.

The economy gave her pause, but so did women's issues: So Cox

opted forPresident Barack Obama, a Democrat, because she

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believed he would be a better advocate.

When it came to the State Senate contest -- where Assemb. George

Latimer (D-Rye) and Bob Cohen (R-New Rochelle) were locked in a

nasty and bitter battle for the open 37th District seat -- the nurse from

New Rochelle said it was hard to know who was telling the truth.

DATABASES: Contributions to NYS Senate | Contributions to NYS

Assembly | Local donations for 2012 race

PHOTOS: Election 2012: Westchester, Rockland, HV | U.S. votes in

2012 Election | Obama supporters celebrate

There, Cox opted for the candidate she believed was the "lesser of

two evils." Again, she voted for the Democrat.

The president's coattails proved to be long in the Hudson Valley,

where Democrats won handily in many down-ballot races and

knocked offRepublican incumbents in others -- for the House of

Representatives, Assembly and State Senate.

DemocratSean Patrick Maloney ousted Rep. Nan Hayworth (R-

Bedford) with 52 percent of the vote, and White Plains CityCouncilman David Buchwald knocked off Assemb. Robert Castelli

(R-Goldens Bridge) with 53 percent. Both incumbents had served

just one term.

And Latimer beat Cohen. That race was a surprise to Republicans,

since two years ago Cohen came within 700 votes of beating

longtime incumbent Sen. Suzi Oppenheimer(who announced her

retirement in January). But he garnered only 45 percent of the vote

this time, to Latimer's 54.

Now it looks like New York is under one-party rule: Democrats have

a governor, the attorney general, two U.S. senators and both houses

of the State Legislature, as it appears Democrats captured themajority in the State Senate. They have 21 of New York's 27

congressional seats. In 2010, Republicans had eight seats.

Republicans had a slate of strong congressional and state

candidates in places like Westchester, Suffolk and upstate New York,

but still took a beating -- and lost ground.

They have to be asking, "What happened?" The answer: Obama and

a roughly 2-to-1 Democratic enrollment advantage.

"You think you're making progress," said Republican strategist Bill

O'Reilly (he writes a column for Newsday), who worked on

congressional and State Senate races, including Cohen's.Republicans also lost ground in state and congressional races that

they made in recent years. "It's like an arm just swept the pieces off

the kitchen table."

Obama won New York with 3.8 million votes to Mitt Romney's 2.2

million, according to unofficial numbers released by the state Board

of Elections. The president won Westchester with 60 percent of the

vote and Rockland with 53 percent.

Gerald McKinstry is a member

of the Newsday editorial

board.

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Romney won Putnam, where state Sen. Greg Ball (R-Patterson) held

on to his seat.

After making strides in local races in recent years (Hayworth and

Castelli were examples of those successes), Republicans again got

creamed -- something that seems to happen every four years in

predominantly blue New York.

"It's like a salmon swimming upstream," said Mike Edelman, a

political strategist who has been a Republican since 1964, but this

year changed his registration to unaffiliated. "The numbers keep

getting larger and larger in favor of the Democrats."

At 5.4 million registered voters in 2012, Democrats have double the

number of Republicans in this state. In 2008, there were 5.2 million

registered Dems and 2.7 million Republicans.

Presidential-year losses will continue to happen unless Republicans

embrace more moderate voices and views, especially here in New

York.

That also means appealing to women, Hispanics and younger voters.

It means not drawing a line in the sand on issues like immigration

reform, women's rights, balanced budgets and debt.

The way Edelman sees it, Republicans need to "be in touch with the changing face of America."

If they aren't -- and if they ignore the state's growing unaffiliated populace, who also tend to be more

middle of the road on social and fiscal issues -- Republicans can expect to eke out some victories in

local races in the off years only to lose bigger ones every four years.

Gerald McKinstry is a member of the Newsday editorial board.

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Bob Fois

A Republican's natural base is pro-life, conservative and Republican -- as in the

reform aspects of the Republican platform -- yet too many of these knuckleheads

divorce themselves from Reagan Republicanism as if the voters are allergic to a

pithy communicator. Take a look at Chris Christie, who could have been a

wonderful running mate nationally. Locally, look at the two Republican Mayors,

John Spencer and Phil Amicone, who won Yonkers with 60%+ of the vote not so

long ago -- and all the Republicans winning county legislative races. They won as

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licans-are-swimming-upstream-1.4201869#http://www.newsday.com/opinion/columnists/gerald-mckinstry/mckinstry-new-york-republicans-are-swimming-upstream-1.4201869#http://www.newsday.com/opinion/columnists/gerald-mckinstry/mckinstry-new-york-republicans-are-swimming-upstream-1.4201869#comment-708023188http://www.newsday.com/opinion/columnists/gerald-mckinstry/mckinstry-new-york-republicans-are-swimming-upstream-1.4201869#http://www.newsday.com/opinion/columnists/gerald-mckinstry/mckinstry-new-york-republicans-are-swimming-upstream-1.4201869#http://www.newsday.com/opinion/columnists/gerald-mckinstry/mckinstry-new-york-republicans-are-swimming-upstream-1.4201869#http://www.newsday.com/opinion/columnists/gerald-mckinstry/mckinstry-new-york-republicans-are-swimming-upstream-1.4201869#http://www.newsday.com/opinion/columnists/gerald-mckinstry/mckinstry-new-york-republicans-are-swimming-upstream-1.4201869#http://www.newsday.com/7.1637843?loginForm=true#commentshttp://www.newsday.com/election2012http://data.newsday.com/new-york/data/politics/contributions/nys-senate/http://data.newsday.com/new-york/data/politics/contributions/nys-assembly/http://www.newsday.com/topics//Edelmanhttp://www.newsday.com/topics//U.S._Democratic_Partyhttp://www.newsday.com/topics//U.S._Republican_Partyhttp://www.newsday.com/topics//Edelmanhttp://www.newsday.com/topics//Nan_Hayworthhttp://www.newsday.com/topics//Greg_Ball


4/5



, ,

Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino in 2009.

Bob Fois

ARepublican's natural base is pro-life, conservative and Republican -- as in the

reform aspects of the Republican platform -- yet too many of these knuckleheads

divorce themselves from Reagan Republicanism as if the voters are allergic to a

pithy communicator. Take a look at Chris Christie, who could have been a

wonderful running mate nationally. Locally, look at the two Republican Mayors,John Spencer and Phil Amicone, who won Yonkers with 60%+ of the vote not so

long ago -- and all the Republicans winning county legislative races. They won as

conservative Republicans, often unabashed pro-life Republicans, as did

Westchester County Executive Rob Astorino in 2009.

Yes... we have to reach out to women (and not on the abortion issue) and

minorities (and not as liberals). But we also must reach out to Democrats who

vote Republicans and count them in our independent base of voters as much as

the non-affiliated voters. This will take months of door-to-door, voter registration

drives and voter identification -- including listening to groups on issues within

local communities on a week-by-week basis. However, this is the kind of work

some political leaders and elected officials do not want to do ... and it's the kind

of basic marketing and civic engagement that helped Barack Obama and his

fellow Democrats kick our ass.

Bob Fois

Republicans win as a reformers. The problem is that on a state and federal level,

GOP insiders have been part of the same corruption as the Democrats since the

Clinton administration.

As for the election in Westchester and the Hudson Valley, Republican losers

made two strategic mistakes: First, their branding was almost non-existent in

mailings. Too many consultants advised them not to put the word "Republican"

on their campaign literature. Second, the losers tended to avoid the conservativeissues and admonished the Tea Party volunteers. Memo To The Rocket

Scientists: Those independents (and Democrats) who will vote Republican vote

for a candidate on conservative issues -- the same way liberal independents

come out for Democrats (not Republicans) on liberal issues.

Too many Republican strategists led their candidates to the left, for the sake of

coming across and pretending to be centrist moderates, though voters were not

fooled (and actually fairly annoyed at the longstanding act). These liberal to

moderate independents voted for the Democrats in this election, in record

numbers. Frankly, why are we as Republican campaigns trying to beat the

Democrats at a game they have owned since 1932?

Bob Fois

What does a human being have to do to have a comment moderated by this

newspaper?

Bob Fois

Republicans win as a reformers. The problem is that on a state and federal level,

GOP insiders have been part of the same corruption as the Democrats since the

Clinton administration.
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5/5



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As for the election in Westchester and the Hudson Valley, Republican losers

made two strategic mistakes: First, their branding was almost non-existent in

mailings. Too many consultants advised them not to put the word "Republican"

on their campaign literature. Second, the losers tended to avoid the conservative

issues and admonished the Tea Party volunteers. Memo To The Rocket

Scientists: Those independents (and Democrats) who will vote Republican vote

for a candidate on conservative issues -- the same way liberal independents

come out for Democrats (not Republicans) on liberal issues.

Too many Republican strategists led their candidates to the left, for the sake of

coming across and pretending to be centrist moderates, though voters were not

fooled (and actually fairly annoyed at the longstanding act). These liberal to

moderate independents voted for the Democrats in this election, in record

numbers. Frankly, why are we as Republican campaigns trying to beat the

David A. Singer

Republicans can run competitively - especially in Westchester -- if they grow a

pair -- and forthrightly disassociate themselves from the tea party adherents.

Hayworth lost to Maloney in part because she (figuratively got caught with her

pants down. For two solid years -- she was a solid adherent to tea party

directives, Grover Norquist, etc... then she converts to a bi-partisan player with 4

months to go before re-election. Nope -- people weren't buying it. Republicans

on the local front need to clearly and loudly repudiate the hard right drift of the

national party. I never heard that from Castelli, Cohen, Hayworth. And a word-to-

the-wise for Rob Astorino -- he better pipe up on this. He can't just say that he's

focused on local issues. He must roundly and loudly repudiate people like KY

Senator McConnell. Otherwise -- the only Republicans left locally will be fossils.

1

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mckinstry: new york republicans are swimming upstream

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