may 2016 ‘auto’psy - spark capitalmailers.sparkcapital.in/uploads/mukesh/monthly_may... ·...

May 2016 ‘Auto’psy

BSE Auto vs. Sensex

Performance (%)

1m 3m 12m

Sensex -0.4% 8.7% -7.2%

BSE Auto -2.7% 10.3% -5.4%

Market data

BSE SENSEX 25705

Nifty 7870

BSE Auto 18195

Update

Date 19th May 2016

MUKESH SARAF [email protected] +91 44 4344 0041

RAMAKRISHNAN SESHAN [email protected] +91 44 4344 0020Find Spark Research on Bloomberg (SPAK <go>),

Thomson First Call, Reuters Knowledge and Factset

Monthly Auto Update

Freight rates and the CV segment: Truck rentals for Apr’16 improved ~1-1.5% m-o-m, across major domestic trade

routes. This came on the heels of a 3-4% and 4-5% m-o-m increase for the months of Mar’16 and Feb’16 respectively.

Industry sources indicate improvement in freight rates in was led by the increased demand for transportation of wheat

crop in several Northern states, coupled with increased availability of fruits and vegetables. We also understand that

improvement in bulk cargo movement from certain core industrial sectors too contributed to the improvement in freight

rates. Notably, the increase in freight rates in Apr’16 was despite a m-o-m decline in diesel prices by ~Rs.0.3/litre in

April’16.. A sustained uptick in the freight offerings would be a key monitorable for fleet operator profitability and,

consequently, new truck sales.

Growth in volumes of MHCV (Goods) stood at 25% YoY for Apr’16, this was on the heels of a strong 32% YoY growth in

FY16. We believe the MHCV demand would continue to be strong in FY17 led by the still-significant, pent up replacement

demand, expected implementation of BS IV pan-India and economic pick-up expected to provide additional traction.

In the overall MHCV segment (passenger & goods), Ashok Leyland (AL) gained market share of 4ppt in FY16 at 33%

from Tata Motors (TTMT) and VECV. We believe that AL had chipped away at TTMT’s share, primarily in the North and

West Zones. (AL: Add, TP Rs. 95). TTMT, however, continued to lead on a pan-India basis in this segment with a market

share of ~52% in FY16, leading across all zones but South India. (TTMT: Buy, TP Rs.490). In Apr’16, AL’s market share

stood at 31%, while VECV’s gained 2ppt share with 14% market share.

The LCV goods segment posted 14% YoY growth in Apr’16. While TTMT once again maintains market leadership in the

overall LCV segment (passenger & goods), its share in this segment has dropped from 43% in FY15 to 39% in FY16,

primarily in favor of M&M (M&M: .Add, TP Rs. 1,325). TTMT’s market share for Apr’16 stood at 39%, while M&M lost

1ppt market share to VECV at 39%. While total CV volumes grew by 12% in FY16, the tonnage growth during the same

period was ~33%, indicating higher tonnage vehicle led growth, a trend that has continued in Apr16 as well.

3Ws: Overall three wheelers, (passenger + goods), grew by 37%,YoY in Apr’16. While Bajaj Auto retains lead in the

passenger segment, with a steady market share of 58% in FY16 (68% in Apr16) (BJAUT: Add, TP of 2,620); Piaggio

maintained its market leadership in the goods segment with a market share of 53% in FY16 (58% in Apr16).

PVs: Domestic PV volumes grew 11% YoY in Apr’16, led by the UV segment which registered a 43% YoY growth.

Volumes of the recent UV launches – Brezza, TUV 300, KUV 100, Creta and S-Cross were ~7.8k units, 1.9k units, ~5.1k

units, 7.9k units and ~2.5k units resp. in Apr’16.

The Baleno posted volumes of 9.7k units, while i10Grand and i20 posted cumulative volumes of 22.7k units. Two MSIL

models (Alto and WagonR) were the top sellers in the entry hatch segment (MSIL: Buy, TP of Rs.4,400)., with the Kwid

at 9.8k units coming in third.

2W: Overall two-wheeler volumes grew 21% YoY in Apr’16, with growth in scooter volumes at 36% YoY, while

motorcycles grew by 16% YoY HMCL maintains overall market leadership in MC segment at 52% in FY16 (50% in Apr16)

(HMCL: Buy, TP of 3,230), while HMSI maintains share in scooters with 56% market share in FY16 and in Apr16.

Global: Net CV orders in the North American market declined sequentially yet again to 13,500 in Apr’16 from 16,150 in

Mar’16, down 35% y-o-y. We believe that build rates would hence continue to be under pressure for a couple of quarters

atleast. (Bharat Forge: Reduce, TP: Rs.749; Ramkrishna Forgings: Buy, TP: 440)

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

May-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16

BSE Auto Sensex


80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan

12

Ma

r12

Ma

y12

Jul1

2

Oct1

2

Dec12

Fe

b13

Ap

r13

Jun

13

Au

g13

Oct1

3

Dec13

Fe

b14

Ap

r14

Jun

14

Au

g14

Oct1

4

Dec14

Fe

b15

Ma

r15

Ma

y15

Jul1

5

Se

p15

Nov15

Jan

16

Fe

b16

Ap

r16

Mumbai Nagpur KolkataGuwahati Hyderabad Chennai

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16

MHCV Goods yoy%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Aug

-08

Feb-0

9

Aug

-09

Feb-1

0

Aug

-10

Feb-1

1

Aug

-11

Feb-1

2

Aug

-12

Feb-1

3

Aug

-13

Feb-1

4

Aug

-14

Feb-1

5

Aug

-15

Feb-1

6

Net Orders

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000

Jan

-14

Mar-

14

May-1

4

Jul-

14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Mar-

16

Two Wheelers yoy %

Per industry experts, decline in net orders is reflective of an

inventory correction and could stabilise at lower levels

Source: Bloomberg, Spark Capital Research

2W: Registered a strong YoY growth rate at 21% for Apr’16 led by

the Scooter segment – 36% growth; MC grew 16% YoY

Source: SIAM, Spark Capital Research

MHCV Goods: While sequential volumes fell off a high base; Apr’16

again saw a healthy YoY growth rate


Freight rates for roundtrip from Delhi (indexed to Jan-12):

Truck rentals increased m-o-m in Apr16

Source: IFTRT, Spark Capital Research

Focus Charts

OverviewFocus Charts

US HCV truck industry demand determined

by a monthly survey of truck OEMs;

usually lags sales by one to two quarters

Monthly Auto Update

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

1,400,000

1,600,000

1,800,000 Jan

-14

Mar-

14

May-1

4

Jul-

14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Mar-

16

Two Wheelers yoy %

2W: Registered a strong YoY growth rate at 21% for Apr’16 led by

the Scooter segment – 36% growth; MC grew 16% YoY


-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

90000

Jan

/14

Mar/

14

May/1

4

Jul/14

Sep

/14

No

v/1

4

Jan

/15

Mar/

15

May/1

5

Jul/15

Sep

/15

No

v/1

5

Jan

/16

Mar/

16

Tractors yoy%

Tractors: Strong YoY growth of 14% and robust sequential growth

of 19% in Apr16


-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16

Three wheelers yoy%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Jan

-14

Mar-

14

May-1

4

Jul-

14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Mar-

16

Passenger Vehicles yoy %

3W: Overall growth led by Passenger segment which grew ~ 45%

YoY in Apr’16; Goods segment grew 8%


PC and UV: YoY growth led by UVs with 43% growth, PC grew 2%

YoY


2W demand grew sharply; PV growth was led by UVs

Overview

Monthly Auto Update

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16

MHCV Goods yoy%

MHCV Goods: While sequential volumes fell off a high base; Apr’16

again saw a healthy YoY growth rate


-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16

LCV Goods yoy%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16

LCV Passenger yoy%

-40%-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16

MHCV Passenger yoy%

LCV Passenger: Similar to LCV Goods, while growth remained

strong, sequential volumes tapered sharply


MHCV Passenger: Apr’16 registered a YoY growth of 8%


LCV Goods: Apr’16 saw robust YoY volume growth; even though

sequential volumes fell


OverviewMHCV and LCVs post healthy growth


Two Wheelers Apr16 Apr15

Motorcycle Segment SharesMC >75, <=110cc 60% 65%

MC >110 and <=125cc 17% 16%

MC>125cc and <=150cc 9% 8%

MC>150cc and <=200cc 5% 6%

MC>200cc and <=250cc 1% 1%

MC>250cc and <=350cc 4% 3%

>350cc 3% 1%

MC >75, <=110cc

Bajaj 14% 17%

Hero 71% 71%

Honda 9% 6%

TVS 5% 5%

Others 0% 1%

MC >110 and <=125cc

Bajaj 7% 3%

Hero 39% 39%

Honda 38% 54%

Yamaha 3% 0%

Suzuki 1% 1%

TVS 11% 2%

MC>125cc and <=150cc

Bajaj 56% 60%

Hero 9% 10%

Honda 9% 2%

Yamaha 26% 28%

Suzuki 0% 0%


Bajaj 15% 17%

Suzuki 9% 14%

TVS 5% 7%

Honda 23% 29%


Bajaj 98% 92%

Hero 1% 6%

Honda 1% 2%


Bajaj, Yamaha 0% 0%

Enfield 100% 100%

Two Wheelers Apr16 Apr15

Motorcycle Segment Shares

Economy 23% 23%

Executive 54% 58%

Premium 23% 19%

Economy

Bajaj Platina & CT 100 37% 40%

Hero HF Dawn 50% 45%

TVS Max & Star 13% 15%

Others 0% 1%

Executive

Discover 2% 5%

Passion, Splendor &

Glamour70% 72%

Shine, Yuga & Twister 22% 21%

TVS 3% 1%

Others 2% 1%

Premium

Pulsar, Avenger, KTM 45% 34%

CBZ, Ignitor, Hunk, Karizma 4% 6%

Unicorn, CBR 7% 13%

Enfield 21% 20%

Apache 9% 12%

Others (Yamaha, Suzuki) 13% 15%

Scooters

Honda 56% 57%

Hero 18% 16%

TVS 13% 14%

Others 13% 12%

Passenger Cars Apr16 Apr15

Entry Hatchbacks

Maruti 78% 72%

Hyundai 14% 17%

GM 1% 2%

Tata 5% 7%

Nissan 2% 2%

Premium Hatchbacks

Maruti 49% 41%

Hyundai 38% 43%

Honda 2% 2%

Toyota 1% 1%

Ford 2% 2%

Others 8% 11%

Entry Sedan

Maruti 50% 55%

Hyundai 16% 14%

Honda 10% 9%

Others (incl. Tata) 25% 22%

Premium Sedan

Hyundai 13% 16%

Honda 35% 41%

Skoda 6% 6%

VW 7% 7%

Others (incl. Maruti) 28% 35%

Market Share: Comparison – Two wheelers and Passenger vehicles

Overview

Utility Vehicles Apr16 Apr15

M&M 35% 41%

Maruti 26% 10%

Toyota 8% 16%

Hyundai 13% 0%

Ford 7% 9%

Renault 4% 9%

Others 8% 15%


Commercial Vehicles Apr15 Apr16

Total MHCV

Ashok Leyland 29% 31%

Tata Motors 53% 50%

VECV 12% 14%

Others 6% 6%

Total LCV

Ashok Leyland 7% 7%

M&M 41% 41%

Tata Motors 39% 39%

Others 13% 13%

Tippers and Haulage Segment Shares

MHCV goods - tippers & haulage 30% 30%

MHCV goods - trailers 5% 7%

LCV goods 49% 48%

MHCV passenger 7% 7%

LCV passenger 9% 8%

LCV Goods: Less than 2T

M&M 12% 23%

Piaggio 6% 4%

Tata Motors 82% 73%

Force Motors 0% 0%

LCV Goods: 2 to 3.5T


M&M 76% 68%

Tata Motors 10% 16%

Others 1% 0%

LCV Goods: 3.5 to 7.5T

M&M 6% 8%

VECV 22% 23%

Tata Motors 61% 57%

SML Isuzu 5% 8%

Others 6% 4%

Apr15 Apr16

MHCV Goods: 7.5 to 16T


SML Isuzu 3% 2%

Tata Motors 49% 55%

VECV 24% 22%

MHCV Goods: 16 to 25T


Tata Motors 66% 61%

VECV 5% 7%

Others 6% 4%

MHCV Goods: > 25T


Tata Motors 48% 66%

VECV 6% 4%

Others 4% 2%

MHCV trailers (26 to 35T)

AL 35% 37%

Tata Motors 63% 38%

MNAL 0% 17%

VECV 2% 9%

Three Wheelers (Passenger Carrier)

Atul Auto Limited 5% 1%

Bajaj Auto Ltd 55% 68%

TVS Motors 4% 3%

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd 8% 7%

Piaggio Vehicles Pvt Ltd 28% 21%

Three Wheelers (Goods Carrier)

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd 24% 21%

Piaggio Vehicles Pvt Ltd 57% 58%

Atul Auto Limited 17% 8%

Market Share: Commercial vehicles and Three-wheelers

Overview


406080

100

Nov-1

2

Ma

r-13

Jul-1

3

Nov-1

3

Ma

r-14

Jun

-14

Oct-

14

Jan

-15

Ap

r 15

Jul 15

Se

p 1

5

Jan

16

Ap

r 16

Diesel Price Mumbai Petrol Price Mumbai

Hatchbacks continue to dominate the passenger car market


Maruti Celerio, Dzire and Honda City diesel versions remain attractive on

the back of enhanced mileage for the diesel variants over petrol

Source: Company, Spark Capital Research

Hatchback segment accounts for majority of PC volumesPassenger Cars

Diesel-petrol breakeven analysis (No. of years)

Kms/day 40 50 60 70 80

Maruti Celerio 5.3 4.2 3.5 3.0 2.7

Maruti Dzire 5.6 4.5 3.7 3.2 2.8

Honda City 4.9 3.9 3.3 2.8 2.5

Top 5 models in each segment for the month of Apr-16


# Entry Hatch Premium Hatch Entry Sedan Premium Sedan

1 Maruti Alto Maruti Swift Maruti Dzire Honda City

2 Maruti Wagon R Hyundai i20 Hyundai Xcent Maruti Ciaz

3 Renault KwidHyundai i10

GrandHonda Amaze Hyundai Verna

4 Maruti Celerio Maruti Baleno Toyota Etios VW Vento

5 Hyundai Eon VW Polo Tata Indigo Skoda Rapid

Overall share: Maruti further continues to be numero uno, Hyundai -

a distant second

Sep 15 Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan15 Feb16 Mar16 Apr16

Maruti 49% 47% 48% 50% 48% 50% 49% 50%

Hyundai 20% 19% 20% 20% 17% 19% 18% 20%

Tata 6% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 5%

Honda 10% 9% 8% 7% 9% 7% 9% 5%

Toyota 3% 3% 3% 3% 2% 3% 2% 2%

VW 2% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% 2% 2%

GM 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Nissan 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

Ford 3% 3% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1%

Others 7% 7% 10% 10% 10% 12% 11% 13%

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

Dec 1

2

Feb 1

3

FY

13

May 1

3

Jul 1

3

Sep

13

No

v 1

3

Jan

14

Mar 14

Ap

r 14

Jun

14

Aug

14

Oct 1

4

Dec 1

4

Feb 1

5

FY

15

May 1

5

Jul 1

5

Sep

15

No

v 1

5

Jan

16

Mar 16

Entry Hatch Premium Hatch Entry Sedan Premium Sedan


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Dec 1

2

Feb 1

3

FY

13

May 1

3

Jul 1

3

Sep

13

No

v 1

3

Jan

14

Mar 14

Ap

r 14

Jun

14

Aug

14

Oct 1

4

Dec 1

4

Feb 1

5

FY

15

May 1

5

Jul 1

5

Sep

15

No

v 1

5

Jan

16

Mar 16

Hyundai Honda Skoda VW Others (incl. Maruti)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Dec 1

2

Feb 1

3

FY

13

May 1

3

Jul 1

3

Sep

13

No

v 1

3

Jan

14

Mar 14

Ap

r 14

Jun

14

Aug

14

Oct 1

4

Dec 1

4

Feb 1

5

FY

15

May 1

5

Jul 1

5

Sep

15

No

v 1

5

Jan

16

Mar 16

Maruti Hyundai Honda Others (incl. Ford)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Dec 1

2

Feb 1

3

FY

13

May 1

3

Jul 1

3

Sep

13

No

v 1

3

Jan

14

Mar 14

Ap

r 14

Jun

14

Aug

14

Oct 1

4

Dec 1

4

Feb 1

5

FY

15

May 1

5

Jul 1

5

Sep

15

No

v 1

5

Jan

16

Mar 16

Maruti Hyundai Honda Toyota Ford Others

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Jan

13

Mar 13

Ap

r 13

Jun

13

Aug

13

Oct 1

3

Dec 1

3

Feb 1

4

FY

14

May 1

4

Jul 1

4

Sep

14

No

v 1

4

Jan

15

Mar 15

Ap

r 15

Jun

15

Aug

15

Oct 1

5

Dec 1

5

Feb 1

6

Ap

r 16

Maruti Hyundai GM Tata Nissan

Premium Sedan: City and the CIAZ continue to lead the segment


Entry Sedan: Dzire; Xcent and Amaze continue to lead the segment


Premium Hatchback: Swift continues to lead; Baleno comes a

distant 4th in the segment


Entry Hatchback: Alto continues to aid Maruti retain leadership;

Strong growth in Kwid volumes at 9.8k units for Apr’16


Segment wise market share: Maruti in a position of strength in the hatch segmentPassenger Cars

Maruti – Alto, WagonR, Celerio; Hyundai – i10, Eon, Santro Maruti – Swift, Ritz; Hyundai – i10 Grand, i20 Elite

Maruti – Swift Dzire; Tata – Zest, Indigo; Honda – Amaze; Hyundai - Xcent Maruti – Ciaz; Honda – City; Hyundai – Elantra, Verna, Sonata


0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

May 1

4

Jun

14

Jul 1

4

Aug

14

Sep

14

Oct 1

4

No

v 1

4

Dec 1

4

Jan

15

Feb 1

5

Mar 15

FY

15

Ap

r 15

May 1

5

Jun

15

Jul 1

5

Aug

15

Sep

15

Oct 1

5

No

v 1

5

Dec 1

5

Jan

16

Feb 1

6

Mar 16

Ap

r 16


0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

May 1

4

Jun

14

Jul 1

4

Aug

14

Sep

14

Oct 1

4

No

v 1

4

Dec 1

4

Jan

15

Feb 1

5

Mar 15

FY

15

Ap

r 15

May 1

5

Jun

15

Jul 1

5

Aug

15

Sep

15

Oct 1

5

No

v 1

5

Dec 1

5

Jan

16

Feb 1

6

Mar 16

Ap

r 16


0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

May 1

4

Jun

14

Jul 1

4

Aug

14

Sep

14

Oct 1

4

No

v 1

4

Dec 1

4

Jan

15

Feb 1

5

Mar 15

FY

15

Ap

r 15

May 1

5

Jun

15

Jul 1

5

Aug

15

Sep

15

Oct 1

5

No

v 1

5

Dec 1

5

Jan

16

Feb 1

6

Mar 16

Ap

r 16


0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

May 1

4

Jun

14

Jul 1

4

Aug

14

Sep

14

Oct 1

4

No

v 1

4

Dec 1

4

Jan

15

Feb 1

5

Mar 15

FY

15

Ap

r 15

May 1

5

Jun

15

Jul 1

5

Aug

15

Sep

15

Oct 1

5

No

v 1

5

Dec 1

5

Jan

16

Feb 1

6

Mar 16

Ap

r 16


Honda: Continues to rely on the Premium Sedan segment

significantly


Tata Motors: Zest and Indigo lead the majority share of the Entry

Sedan


Hyundai: Share of the largest segment - premium hatch at 61%


MSIL: Entry hatch and sedan continue to contribute majority of

volumes


Passenger Car: Segment mix for OEMs - Key drivers: Entry Hatch for MSIL,

and Tata, Premium Hatchback for Hyundai and Honda

Passenger Cars


Maruti FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 33% 32% 32% 34% 34% 31%

East 10% 10% 11% 11% 4% 12%

West 30% 30% 29% 29% 24% 30%

South 27% 27% 27% 27% 39% 27%

Geographical mix of OEM volumes

Hyundai FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 35% 35% 35% 34% 29% 30%

East 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 11%

West 31% 31% 29% 30% 33% 33%

South 24% 23% 25% 25% 27% 26%

Honda FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 35% 35% 33% 35% 34% 33%

East 4% 5% 7% 7% 7% 7%

West 39% 37% 36% 31% 31% 32%

South 21% 22% 23% 28% 29% 29%

Tata

MotorsFY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 22% 23% 20% 17% 19% 19%

East 14% 12% 13% 12% 13% 9%

West 34% 32% 31% 29% 29% 27%

South 30% 33% 36% 42% 39% 45%

Passenger cars


Trends in market share across major states


State

Share in

overall

volumes

%

(9mFY16)

Honda Hyundai Maruti Tata Motors Others

FY11 FY14H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16

Maharashtra 13% 5% 9% 10% 12% 17% 21% 24% 20% 44% 46% 47% 49% 17% 7% 6% 7% 16% 17% 13% 12%

Kerala 8% 1% 5% 6% 8% 14% 19% 19% 15% 62% 59% 60% 62% 9% 2% 1% 2% 14% 16% 13% 13%

Gujarat 8% 4% 9% 10% 12% 23% 26% 29% 28% 50% 45% 47% 49% 9% 4% 3% 3% 14% 15% 11% 9%

Karnataka 8% 3% 13% 12% 8% 19% 19% 23% 21% 47% 39% 43% 42% 15% 11% 7% 11% 16% 19% 15% 17%

U.P. 7% 2% 8% 8% 9% 21% 23% 24% 21% 53% 51% 53% 57% 14% 7% 6% 5% 9% 11% 8% 8%

Delhi 7% 6% 14% 14% 14% 25% 24% 21% 20% 46% 46% 50% 51% 6% 1% 2% 3% 17% 15% 14% 12%

Haryana 6% 4% 6% 9% 12% 22% 24% 25% 25% 57% 52% 51% 50% 8% 2% 2% 2% 9% 15% 13% 12%

Tamil Nadu 7% 3% 4% 6% 11% 15% 18% 21% 18% 41% 43% 43% 43% 21% 12% 10% 11% 20% 24% 20% 17%

A.P. 7% 2% 7% 9% 9% 20% 19% 22% 21% 46% 41% 47% 46% 16% 14% 11% 10% 16% 18% 12% 13%

Rajasthan 5% 2% 6% 6% 6% 15% 21% 23% 24% 59% 56% 58% 57% 11% 3% 2% 2% 13% 14% 11% 11%

Punjab 4% 2% 6% 9% 8% 16% 20% 16% 22% 55% 55% 60% 55% 12% 4% 4% 3% 15% 15% 11% 11%

West Bengal 3% 2% 7% 8% 9% 17% 22% 26% 24% 47% 51% 53% 55% 14% 5% 5% 4% 19% 15% 8% 8%

M.P. 3% 2% 5% 5% 6% 14% 19% 22% 25% 51% 54% 56% 55% 22% 10% 8% 6% 12% 13% 9% 8%

Passenger cars


M&M FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 25.6% 27.5% 28.2% 28.9% 29.3% 30.6%

East 21.1% 19.1% 17.3% 19.8% 17.7% 18.8%

West 33.2% 33.9% 34.1% 34.6% 35.0% 31.9%

South 20.2% 19.4% 20.3% 16.8% 18.0% 18.7%

Geographical mix of OEM volumes

Toyota FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 28.7% 28.7% 29.5% 33.3% 31.4% 30.2%

East 5.0% 5.9% 4.3% 4.7% 5.4% 6.5%

West 29.5% 28.5% 29.0% 29.3% 27.8% 29.8%

South 36.9% 37.0% 37.2% 32.7% 35.4% 33.4%

TTMT FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 24.9% 28.6% 22.9% 24.9% 28.1% 31.4%

East 20.8% 23.2% 17.0% 30.9% 25.7% 24.4%

West 29.7% 26.9% 29.0% 27.1% 26.9% 29.7%

South 24.6% 21.3% 31.1% 17.1% 19.3% 14.4%

MSIL FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 78.4% 53.7% 23.1% 20.7% 26.6% 23.6%

East 14.8% 22.8% 6.8% 7.6% 7.4% 6.7%

West 5.6% 15.2% 36.5% 42.0% 39.7% 43.7%

South 1.2% 8.3% 33.6% 29.7% 26.2% 26.0%

Utility vehicles


Utility vehicles



State

Share in

overall

volumes

%

(9mFY16)

Hyundai M&M MSIL Toyota Others

FY11 FY14H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16

Mah. 14% 0% 0% 1% 10% 45% 31% 29% 25% 0% 20% 19% 26% 25% 14% 15% 15% 29% 34% 37% 24%

U.P. 11% 0% 0% 0% 8% 75% 62% 58% 56% 1% 7% 8% 10% 8% 9% 9% 9% 16% 22% 24% 17%

Gujarat 8% 0% 0% 1% 13% 49% 28% 27% 27% 0% 17% 17% 23% 18% 15% 15% 13% 33% 41% 41% 25%

Karnataka 7% 0% 0% 1% 10% 35% 25% 22% 26% 0% 16% 12% 17% 35% 19% 20% 18% 31% 40% 44% 28%

Delhi 7% 0% 0% 1% 13% 26% 24% 16% 22% 6% 12% 15% 19% 51% 20% 16% 15% 17% 44% 52% 32%

A.P 6% 0% 0% 0% 10% 55% 39% 34% 35% 0% 15% 13% 18% 25% 14% 17% 16% 19% 31% 36% 22%

T.N 6% 0% 0% 0% 8% 41% 30% 26% 26% 0% 11% 11% 15% 27% 17% 18% 16% 32% 42% 44% 34%

Rajasthan 6% 0% 0% 0% 10% 68% 59% 57% 53% 1% 5% 7% 9% 10% 9% 9% 9% 21% 27% 27% 19%

Kerala 5% 0% 0% 0% 11% 42% 22% 21% 24% 0% 15% 13% 13% 35% 23% 25% 23% 23% 41% 40% 30%

Haryana 5% 0% 0% 1% 18% 54% 39% 33% 32% 15% 7% 11% 12% 7% 20% 22% 21% 24% 33% 34% 17%

M.P 4% 0% 0% 0% 7% 64% 60% 57% 51% 1% 5% 6% 9% 6% 5% 7% 7% 29% 29% 31% 26%

W.B> 3% 0% 0% 0% 8% 52% 42% 41% 42% 0% 12% 14% 13% 14% 6% 8% 7% 34% 40% 37% 31%

Bihar 3% 0% 0% 0% 3% 81% 79% 71% 74% 0% 3% 3% 4% 1% 2% 3% 5% 17% 16% 22% 15%

Punjab 3% 0% 0% 0% 17% 42% 28% 24% 31% 2% 12% 12% 11% 31% 27% 27% 23% 26% 32% 37% 18%


-50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300%

Q2-FY15

Q3-FY15

Q4-FY15

Q1-FY16

Q2-FY16

Q3-FY16

Q4-FY16

Trailers - 40T & above Trailers - 16.2T - 40T

Tippers & Haulage - 16.2T & above Tippers & Haulage - 7.5-16.2T

Sales growth for vehicles with tonnage greater than 16T remains

extremely strong…


-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16

CV Volume growth % Tonnage growth %

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16

MHCV goods - tippers & haulage MHCV goods - trailers

LCV goods MHCV passenger

LCV passenger yoy%

..as a result, goods tonnage growth remains much higher than CV

volume growth (goods)


Overall growth driven by MHCV segment


Overall market share for CV Industry


Growth driven by MHCVCommercial Vehicles

MHCV Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16

Tata Motors 56% 57% 49% 51% 51% 50% 50%

AL 27% 27% 35% 36% 34% 33% 31%

VECV 12% 12% 13% 9% 11% 12% 14%

Others 4% 4% 4% 4% 4% 5% 6%

Total MHCV 22,181 20,145 26,017 28,533 29,035 37,137 23,515

LCV Oct 15 Nov 15 Dec 15 Jan 16 Feb 16 Mar 16 Apr 16

Tata Motors 33% 38% 43% 41% 41% 40% 39%

AL 7% 8% 7% 7% 8% 8% 7%

VECV 3% 2% 3% 3% 3% 4% 5%

M&M 49% 44% 37% 40% 39% 37% 39%

Others 9% 8% 10% 9% 10% 12% 10%

Total LCV 36,415 31,621 30,823 33,150 33,324 42,728 30,320


-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16

Ashok Leyland AMW MNAL Tata Motors VECV

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16

Ashok Leyland Tata Motors VECV Others

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

No

v-1

3

Jan

-14

Mar-

14

May-1

4

Jul-

14

Sep

-14

No

v-1

4

Jan

-15

Mar-

15

May-1

5

Jul-

15

Sep

-15

No

v-1

5

Jan

-16

Mar-

16

Ashok Leyland SML Isuzu Tata Motors VECV

Market share between AL and Tata Motors driven by bulk orders


TTMT gained market share sequentially, improved to 66% in Apr 16


TTMT gained market share sequentially, improved to 61% in Apr16


In Apr’16, AL maintained its share gains of FY16


Commercial Vehicle: MHCV segment wise market share Commercial Vehicles

MHCV Goods: 7.5 to 16T MHCV Goods: 16 to 25T

MHCV Goods: >25T MHCV Goods: 26.4 to 35.2T


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16

M&M VECV Tata Motors SML Isuzu Others

0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16

VECV Tata Motors Others

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16

Ashok Leyland M&M Tata Motors Others

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16

M&M Piaggio Tata Motors Force Motors

VECV gained market share from both TTMT and AL in Apr16


VECV registers meaningful share gains in Apr16


Relatively stable market shares


M&M further improves upon its share at TTMT’s expense


Commercial Vehicle: LCV Segment wise market Share Commercial Vehicles

LCV Goods: Less than 2T LCV Goods: 2 to 3.5T

LCV Goods: 3.5 to 7.5T LCV Passenger


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Ap

r-14

May-1

4

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Aug

-14

Sep

-14

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Ap

r-15

May-1

5

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

LCV Passenger MHCV Passenger Haulage-7.5 to 16.2

Haulage->16.2 Trailers-16.2-35.2 Trailers->35.2

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16



0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Ap

r-14

May-1

4

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Aug

-14

Sep

-14

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Ap

r-15

May-1

5

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16

MHCV goods - tippers & haulage MHCV goods - trailers

LCV goods MHCV passenger

LCV passenger

VECV: Highest share of MHCV (7.5-16T) haulage when compared to

other two players


AL: MHCV goods contribute majority of volumes


Tata Motors: LCV Passenger continues to dominate


LCV goods segment continues to dominate the market


Commercial Vehicle: Segment mix for OEMsCommercial Vehicles


80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

Jan

12

Ma

r12

Ma

y12

Jul1

2

Oct1

2

Dec12

Fe

b13

Ap

r13

Jun

13

Au

g13

Oct1

3

Dec13

Fe

b14

Ap

r14

Jun

14

Au

g14

Oct1

4

Dec14

Fe

b15

Ma

r15

Ma

y15

Jul1

5

Se

p15

Nov15

Jan

16

Fe

b16

Ap

r16

Mumbai Nagpur KolkataGuwahati Hyderabad Chennai

-5.0%

4.6%

-7.3%

6.0%

-2.1%

0.6%1.9%

-6.0%

1.5%

-5.4%

6.4%2.6%

-11.0%

5.2%

1.3%

-1.7%

2.8%

-12%

-8%

-4%

0%

4%

8%

Dec14

Jan

15

Feb15

Feb15

Mar1

5

Ap

r15

May15

Jun

15

Jul1

5

Aug

15

Sep

15

Oct1

5

No

v15

Dec15

Jan

16

Mid

-Jan

16

Feb16

Mar1

6

Ap

r16

May16

Freight Rate (Sequential) % Diesel (Sequential) %

Trends in freight rates and diesel prices


Over 1 year through May16 diesel costs ~3%, whereas freight rates remained flattish


Freight rates for roundtrip from Delhi (indexed to Jan-12)


Truck rentals increased further in April 2016

Truck rentals increase m-o-m in Apr16 Truck rentals for Apr’16 improved ~1-1.5% m-o-m, across major domestic

trade routes. This came on the heels of a 3-4% and 4-5% m-o-m increase

for the months of Mar’16 and Feb’16 respectively. Industry sources indicate

improvement in freight rates in was led by the increased demand for

transportation of wheat crop in several Northern states, coupled with

increased availability of fruits and vegetables. We also understand that

improvement in bulk cargo movement from certain core industrial sectors

too contributed to the improvement in freight rates. Notably, the increase in

freight rates in Apr’16 was despite a m-o-m decline in diesel prices by

~Rs.0.3/litre in April’16. Roundtrip rental (for 25.2 ton GVW) from Delhi to

Mumbai was Rs.87,000 as at May 01, 2016 vs. Rs. 85,700 as at Apr 01,

2016 and Delhi to Chennai was Rs. 136,200 vs. Rs.134,200

Diesel costs, which account for ~50% of freight rates, increased by ~8.5%

from Jan 1, 2016 to Apr 1, 2016. During the same period, truck freight rates

increased by ~4.1%

Additionally, over the 12 months through May’16, diesel costs have

declined ~3%, while freight rates have remained flattish indicating a general

improvement in the demand (largely back ended) for freight services over

this period.

Commercial Vehicles

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

Jan

12

Ap

r12

Jul1

2

Nov12

Fe

b13

Ma

y13

Au

g13

Nov13

Fe

b14

Ma

y14

Au

g14

Nov14

Fe

b15

Ap

r15

Jul1

5

Oct1

5

Jan

16

Ma

r16

Freight rate: Delhi - Chennai (indexed toJan'12)


Region wise sales of major OEMs

Ashok

LeylandFY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 15% 14% 16% 18% 16% 18%

East 8% 7% 8% 13% 11% 10%

West 34% 36% 38% 37% 35% 34%

South 42% 43% 38% 32% 38% 37%

TATA

MotorsFY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 27% 25% 26% 27% 30% 32%

East 23% 21% 19% 22% 20% 21%

West 37% 42% 41% 39% 38% 37%

South 13% 12% 13% 12% 12% 11%

VECV FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 28% 23% 23% 28% 29% 30%

East 3% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4%

West 32% 37% 35% 34% 32% 36%

South 37% 37% 39% 34% 35% 30%

MHCV-Goods


Trends in market share in major states

State

Share in

overall

volumes %

(9mFY16)


FY11 FY14 1HFY15 9mFY16 FY11 FY14 1HFY15 9mFY16 FY11 FY14 1HFY15 9mFY16 FY11 FY14 1HFY15 9mFY16

Maharashtra 12% 24% 24% 30% 33% 68% 57% 53% 50% 8% 14% 12% 14% 1% 5% 5% 3%

Tamil Nadu 9% 61% 48% 60% 68% 28% 27% 21% 19% 9% 17% 13% 10% 3% 8% 5% 3%

Haryana 11% 29% 23% 23% 10% 57% 51% 61% 75% 13% 19% 13% 12% 0% 6% 4% 3%

Gujarat 7% 18% 20% 19% 28% 67% 58% 59% 50% 13% 18% 18% 18% 1% 4% 4% 4%

Rajasthan 8% 28% 19% 22% 23% 71% 75% 74% 72% 1% 3% 2% 3% 0% 3% 2% 1%

U.P. 6% 10% 12% 16% 14% 83% 72% 69% 69% 7% 12% 11% 13% 1% 4% 4% 5%

West Bengal 6% 13% 22% 23% 23% 84% 73% 73% 72% 3% 3% 2% 3% 1% 2% 2% 2%

Karnataka 4% 35% 28% 28% 37% 49% 45% 44% 39% 13% 21% 21% 19% 3% 7% 7% 5%

A.P. 7% 43% 36% 40% 52% 44% 38% 37% 32% 11% 21% 20% 13% 2% 4% 3% 3%

M.P. 4% 24% 31% 28% 36% 69% 54% 59% 55% 6% 10% 9% 8% 1% 5% 3% 2%

Punjab 2% 12% 16% 18% 21% 80% 65% 70% 67% 7% 10% 7% 7% 2% 8% 5% 5%

MHCV-Goods


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Aug

-14

Sep

-14

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Ap

r-15

May-1

5

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

Bajaj Hero Honda Yamaha Suzuki TVS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Aug

-14

Sep

-14

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Ap

r-15

May-1

5

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

Bajaj Hero Honda Yamaha Suzuki TVS

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Aug

-14

Sep

-14

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Ap

r-15

May-1

5

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

Bajaj Hero Honda TVS Others

125-150cc: Bajaj’s Avenger and the V help it gain share in this

segment


110-125cc: HMSI gains market share in Apr16 led by the Shine


75-110cc: Relatively stable market shares in Apr16


Motorcycles: Engine wise breakupMotorcycles

Overall MC share: Market share stable in the last three months

Oct -15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16

Bajaj 19% 18% 17% 16% 18% 19% 20%

HMCL 49% 54% 55% 53% 52% 52% 50%

HMSI 15% 12% 12% 14% 14% 13% 15%

Yamaha 3% 2% 2% 3% 3% 3% 3%

Enfield 4% 5% 6% 5% 6% 5% 5%

TVS 7% 7% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7%

Suzuki 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1%

M&M 1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%



0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Aug

-14

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-15

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-1

5

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-16

Bajaj HMCL HMSI Enfield TVS Others (Yamaha, Suzuki, Kawasaki)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Aug

-14

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-14

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-15

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oct

-15

No

v-15

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-16

Bajaj HMCL HMSI TVS Others (Yamaha, Suzuki, MM)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Aug

-14

Sep

-14

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Ap

r-15

May-1

5

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

Bajaj HMCL TVS Yamaha

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16

Scooters Motorcycles Mopeds

Premium: Bajaj maintains numero uno position


Executive: HMSI gains market share in Apr16 led by the Shine and

Dream series


Economy: Bajaj gains share in April led by the CT series


Executive segment continues to dominate the MC space


Motorcycles: Segment wise breakup

Bajaj – Platina; HMCL – Dawn; TVS – Star; Yamaha – Crux R

Bajaj – Discover 100M,125,150; HMCL – Passion, Splendor, Glamour; TVS - Phoenix

HMSI – Shine, Stunner, Twister, Dream

Bajaj – Pulsar, Avenger, KTM; HMCL – Ignitor, Karizma, Achiever; TVS – Apache

HMSI – Unicorn, CBR, CB Trigger; Yamaha – FZ16, SZ

Motorcycles

March 2016 ‘Auto’psy

Bajaj FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 29% 29% 30% 32% 35% 33%

East 15% 12% 13% 13% 14% 13%

West 33% 33% 32% 31% 28% 29%

South 23% 26% 26% 24% 23% 25%

Region mix of OEM volumes

HMCL FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 25% 24% 24% 26% 27% 28%

East 17% 15% 16% 17% 19% 21%

West 36% 37% 37% 37% 34% 34%

South 23% 24% 23% 20% 20% 18%

HMSI FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 14% 15% 13% 15% 16% 17%

East 14% 14% 14% 16% 14% 15%

West 37% 36% 37% 41% 41% 44%

South 35% 35% 36% 28% 29% 24%

TVS FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 20% 21% 22% 27% 31% 32%

East 14% 12% 13% 16% 17% 22%

West 28% 28% 33% 31% 29% 26%

South 38% 40% 32% 26% 24% 20%

Motorcycles

March 2016 ‘Auto’psy



State

Share in

total vol.

(9mFY16)

Bajaj HMCL HMSI TVS Others

FY11 FY14 H1FY159m

FY16FY11 FY14 H1FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16

U.P. 15% 27% 23% 18% 19% 60% 59% 59% 57% 4% 10% 10% 10% 7% 5% 9% 10% 2% 3% 3% 4%

A.P 8% 23% 15% 13% 17% 55% 51% 52% 52% 10% 22% 21% 17% 8% 5% 5% 5% 4% 7% 8% 9%

Mah. 10% 29% 18% 15% 17% 50% 46% 45% 43% 11% 26% 28% 26% 5% 3% 3% 3% 5% 8% 9% 11%

Raj. 8% 19% 16% 13% 13% 68% 62% 63% 65% 4% 10% 11% 11% 8% 8% 9% 6% 2% 4% 4% 4%

Bihar 5% 22% 14% 12% 11% 63% 64% 67% 67% 5% 12% 11% 9% 7% 5% 6% 8% 3% 4% 4% 5%

M.P 6% 26% 21% 19% 20% 57% 51% 52% 52% 5% 15% 17% 15% 10% 9% 10% 10% 2% 4% 3% 4%

W.B. 5% 36% 19% 16% 14% 43% 52% 54% 53% 10% 15% 14% 13% 6% 8% 9% 12% 5% 7% 7% 8%

T.N. 6% 20% 21% 17% 23% 47% 43% 39% 41% 10% 15% 20% 11% 17% 9% 10% 9% 7% 12% 14% 17%

Kar. 6% 30% 23% 20% 23% 49% 44% 44% 43% 8% 18% 19% 15% 8% 6% 6% 7% 5% 10% 11% 13%

Gujarat 6% 26% 16% 12% 14% 60% 56% 59% 56% 10% 21% 22% 22% 2% 2% 1% 2% 3% 5% 6% 7%

Orissa 3% 17% 12% 11% 12% 67% 63% 62% 63% 8% 17% 18% 14% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4% 4% 5% 6%

Haryana 3% 28% 24% 22% 26% 61% 54% 56% 53% 3% 9% 10% 9% 5% 6% 6% 6% 3% 7% 7% 7%

Jkhand. 2% 20% 11% 10% 10% 65% 65% 63% 63% 5% 16% 18% 15% 6% 4% 5% 6% 3% 3% 4% 5%

Motorcycles


Scooters registered a strong 36% YoY growth

Source: Spark Capital Research

-

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16

Scooty Streak Scooty Pep+ Scooty Zest Jupiter Wego

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Jul-

14

Aug

-14

Sep

-14

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Ap

r-15

May-1

5

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

HMSI Hero TVS Others

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Ap

r-16

Scooters Motorcycles Mopeds

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

Jan

-14

Feb-1

4M

ar-

14

Ap

r-14

May-1

4Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Aug

-14

Sep

-14

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4D

ec-1

4Jan

-15

Feb-1

5M

ar-

15

Ap

r-15

May-1

5Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5D

ec-1

5Jan

-16

Feb-1

6M

ar-

16

Ap

r-16

Volumes YoY Growth %

Jupiter continues to drive TVS’s scooter volumes


Apr16 saw HMSI regain market share from HMCL


Scooters maintains its share in the overall 2W space


Scooters: Continues to grow extremely stronglyScooters


Region mix of Scooter OEM volumesScooters

HMCL FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 14% 12% 14% 19% 22% 20%

East 15% 14% 16% 14% 14% 17%

West 49% 53% 40% 38% 34% 36%

South 22% 21% 30% 29% 30% 27%

HMSI FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 26% 25% 24% 24% 22% 22%

East 5% 6% 6% 9% 8% 10%

West 39% 39% 37% 38% 37% 35%

South 30% 30% 32% 29% 33% 33%

TVS FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 9% 10% 9% 11% 17% 22%

East 8% 8% 8% 9% 8% 8%

West 36% 29% 25% 28% 29% 33%

South 47% 54% 58% 52% 46% 37%

Yamaha FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 H1FY15 9mFY16

North 0% 0% 15% 8% 8% 11%

East 0% 0% 16% 15% 17% 19%

West 0% 0% 22% 11% 10% 15%

South 0% 0% 47% 66% 65% 54%


Trends in market share across major states for Scooter OEMs

State

Share in

total vol.

(9mFY16

)

HMCL HMSI TVS Yamaha Others

FY11 FY14H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16FY11 FY14

H1

FY15

9m

FY16

Mah.. 11% 22% 20% 14% 14% 36% 54% 59% 59% 21% 13% 16% 18% - 2% 2% 3% 21% 11% 9% 7%

T.N. 11% 8% 12% 10% 11% 29% 31% 40% 35% 50% 37% 32% 35% - 12% 13% 13% 13% 8% 5% 6%

A.P. 9% 15% 22% 18% 16% 36% 52% 57% 62% 24% 13% 15% 13% - 3% 3% 3% 25% 10% 7% 7%

Kar.. 9% 9% 11% 9% 9% 48% 55% 56% 59% 21% 13% 17% 17% - 5% 6% 5% 22% 16% 12% 11%

Gujarat 9% 17% 16% 15% 16% 42% 62% 64% 63% 17% 5% 10% 12% - 1% 2% 2% 24% 16% 9% 7%

Kerala 9% 16% 20% 17% 15% 48% 43% 45% 51% 17% 10% 10% 7% - 15% 17% 13% 19% 12% 11% 14%

U.P. 7% 18% 21% 18% 15% 51% 63% 59% 59% 17% 11% 18% 19% - 2% 3% 3% 14% 3% 2% 3%

Punjab 5% 11% 22% 21% 17% 58% 63% 59% 61% 10% 7% 14% 18% - 2% 3% 1% 21% 6% 3% 4%

Raj. 4% 17% 23% 22% 20% 56% 58% 58% 58% 16% 13% 15% 15% - 1% 1% 1% 11% 5% 4% 6%

W.B. 4% 27% 28% 24% 25% 32% 45% 47% 49% 27% 17% 17% 14% - 8% 10% 9% 14% 2% 2% 3%

M.P. 3% 14% 22% 16% 19% 44% 56% 58% 55% 23% 13% 18% 19% - 1% 1% 2% 19% 8% 7% 5%

Source: Industry, SIAM, Spark Capital Research

Scooters


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jul-

14

Aug

-14

Sep

-14

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Ap

r-15

May-1

5

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

Atul Auto Limited Bajaj Auto Ltd Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd

Piaggio Vehicles Pvt Ltd Scooters India Ltd

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jul-

14

Aug

-14

Sep

-14

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Ap

r-15

May-1

5

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

Atul Auto Limited Bajaj Auto Ltd Force Motors Ltd

Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd Piaggio Vehicles Pvt Ltd Scooters India Ltd

TVS Motor Company Ltd

-20%-15%-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

Jul-

14

Aug

-14

Sep

-14

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Ap

r-15

May-1

5

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

Goods total yoy%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

Jul-

14

Aug

-14

Sep

-14

Oct-

14

No

v-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Ap

r-15

May-1

5

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

Passenger total yoy%

While Piaggio leads the pack in the goods segment


Bajaj continues to lead the passenger segment


The 3W Goods registered a robust growth of 8% for Apr’16


Passenger 3W continued to grow strongly in Apr’16 with a 45% YoY

growth


Bajaj and Piaggio maintain their lead in passenger and goods segments respectivelyThree-wheelers


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jul/14

Aug

/14

Sep

/14

Oct/14

No

v/1

4

Dec/1

4

Jan

/15

Feb/1

5

Mar/

15

Ap

r/15

May/1

5

Jun

/15

Jul/15

Aug

/15

Sep

/15

Oct/15

No

v/1

5

Dec/1

5

Jan

/16

Feb/1

6

Mar/

16

Ap

r/16

31-40 41-50 51 <30

41-50 HP segment continues to be the largest in the tractor industry


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jul/14

Aug

/14

Sep

/14

Oct/14

No

v/1

4

Dec/1

4

Jan

/15

Feb/1

5

Mar/

15

Ap

r/15

May/1

5

Jun

/15

Jul/15

Aug

/15

Sep

/15

Oct/15

No

v/1

5

Dec/1

5

Jan

/16

Feb/1

6

Mar/

16

Ap

r/16

Escorts M&M New Holland Johndeere Others

0%

10%20%30%

40%50%60%

70%80%90%

100%

Jul/14

Aug

/14

Sep

/14

Oct/14

No

v/1

4

Dec/1

4

Jan

/15

Feb/1

5

Mar/

15

Ap

r/15

May/1

5

Jun

/15

Jul/15

Aug

/15

Sep

/15

Oct/15

No

v/1

5

Dec/1

5

Jan

/16

Feb/1

6

Mar/

16

Ap

r/16

M&M TAFE International Tractors Escorts Others

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Aug

/14

Sep

/14

Oct/14

No

v/1

4

Dec/1

4

Jan

/15

Feb/1

5

Mar/

15

Ap

r/15

May/1

5

Jun

/15

Jul/15

Aug

/15

Sep

/15

Oct/15

No

v/1

5

Dec/1

5

Jan

/16

Feb/1

6

Mar/

16

Ap

r/16

Escorts International Tractors M&M New Holland Tafe Others

41-50hp: Similar story in this segment, with M&M gaining share from

Escorts


31-40hp: M&M gains MS sequentially from Escorts in Apri’16


Overall market share: M&M continues to be the market leader


Largely stable market sharesTractors


-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Aug

-12

Oct-

12

Dec-1

2

Feb-1

3

Ap

r-13

Jun

-13

Aug

-13

Oct-

13

Dec-1

3

Feb-1

4

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Aug

-14

Oct-

14

Dec-1

4

Feb-1

5

Ap

r-15

Jun

-15

Aug

-15

Oct-

15

Dec-1

5

Feb-1

6

Th

ou

san

ds

Production Production YoY %

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

Aug

-08

Feb-0

9

Aug

-09

Feb-1

0

Aug

-10

Feb-1

1

Aug

-11

Feb-1

2

Aug

-12

Feb-1

3

Aug

-13

Feb-1

4

Aug

-14

Feb-1

5

Aug

-15

Feb-1

6

Net Orders

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0

10

20

30

Se

p-1

0

De

c-1

0

Ma

r-1

1

Ju

n-1

1

Se

p-1

1

De

c-1

1

Ma

r-1

2

Ju

n-1

2

Se

p-1

2

De

c-1

2

Ma

r-1

3

Ju

n-1

3

Se

p-1

3

De

c-1

3

Ma

r-1

4

Ju

n-1

4

Se

p-1

4

De

c-1

4

Ma

r-1

5

Ju

n-1

5

Se

p-1

5

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

EU HCV Volumes YoY Growth

Per industry experts, decline in net orders is reflective of an

inventory correction and could stabilise at lower levels


US HCV: Sluggish production growth in line with the inventory

correction

Source: Bloomberg, Tata Motors, Spark Capital Research:

-30%-20%-10%0%10%20%30%40%50%60%

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

No

v-1

4

Dec-1

4

Jan

-15

Feb-1

5

Mar-

15

Ap

r-15

May-1

5

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Aug

-15

Sep

-15

Oct-

15

No

v-1

5

Dec-1

5

Jan

-16

Feb-1

6

Mar-

16

Ap

r-16

Jaguar LR Yoy %

JLR volumes dip in April16

Source: Bloomberg, Tata Motors, Spark Capital Research:

EU HCV: CV growth has remained steady


HCV: US HCV slowdown could continue over the near termGlobal

US HCV truck industry demand determined

by a monthly survey of truck OEMs;

usually lags sales by one to two quarters


Disclaimer

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Spark Capital makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy, completeness or fairness of the information and opinions contained in this

document. Spark Capital , its affiliates, and the employees of Spark Capital and its affiliates may, from time to time, effect or have effected an own account transaction in, or

deal as principal or agent in or for the securities mentioned in this document. They may perform or seek to perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit

investment banking or other business from, any company referred to in this report.

This report has been prepared on the basis of information, which is already available in publicly accessible media or developed through an independent analysis by Spark

Capital. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, Spark Capital and its affiliates are under no obligation to update the information.

Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that prevent Spark Capital and its affiliates from doing so. Neither Spark Capital nor its affiliates or their respective

directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be responsible or liable in any manner, directly or indirectly, for views or opinions expressed in this report or the contents

or any errors or discrepancies herein or for any decisions or actions taken in reliance on the report or the inability to use or access our service in this report or for any loss or

damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including without limitation loss of revenue or profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of

or reliance on this report.

Absolute

Rating

Interpretation

BUY Stock expected to provide positive returns of >15% over a 1-year horizon REDUCEStock expected to provide returns of <5% – -10% over a 1-year

horizon

ADDStock expected to provide positive returns of >5% – <15% over a 1-year

horizonSELL Stock expected to fall >10% over a 1-year horizon


Spark Capital and/or its affiliates and/or employees may have interests/positions, financial or otherwise in the securities mentioned in this report. To enhance transparency,

Spark Capital has incorporated a disclosure of interest statement in this document. This should however not be treated as endorsement of views expressed in this report:

Disclosure of interest statement Yes/No

Analyst financial interest in the company No

Group/directors ownership of the subject company covered No

Investment banking relationship with the company covered No

Spark Capital’s ownership/any other financial interest in the company covered No

Associates of Spark Capital’s ownership more than 1% in the company covered No

Any other material conflict of interest at the time of publishing the research report No

Receipt of compensation by Spark Capital or its Associate Companies from the subject company covered for in the last twelve months:

Managing/co-managing public offering of securities

Investment banking/merchant banking/brokerage services

products or services other than those above

in connection with research report

No

Whether Research Analyst has served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company covered No

Whether the Research Analyst or Research Entity has been engaged in market making activity of the Subject Company; No

Disclaimer (Cont’d)

Analyst Certification of Independence

The views expressed in this research report accurately reflect the analyst’s personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and no part of the research

analyst’s compensations was, is or will be, directly or indirectly, related to the specific recommendation or views expressed in the report.

Additional Disclaimer for US Institutional Investors

This research report prepared by Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited is distributed in the United States to US Institutional Investors (as defined in Rule 15a-6 under

the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended) only by Auerbach Grayson, LLC, a broker-dealer registered in the US (registered under Section 15 of Securities Exchange

Act of 1934, as amended). Auerbach Grayson accepts responsibility on the research reports and US Institutional Investors wishing to effect transaction in the securities

discussed in the research material may do so through Auerbach Grayson. All responsibility for the distribution of this report by Auerbach Grayson, LLC in the US shall be borne

by Auerbach Grayson, LLC. All resulting transactions by a US person or entity should be effected through a registered broker-dealer in the US. This report is not directed at you

if Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited or Auerbach Grayson, LLC is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available

to you. You should satisfy yourself before reading it that Auerbach Grayson, LLC and Spark Capital Advisors (India) Private Limited are permitted to provide research material

concerning investment to you under relevant legislation and regulations;

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