may 2011 big call
TRANSCRIPT
The BIG CallMay 2011
Pam Goodfellow, Senior Analyst, BIGresearch
Guest Contributor: Ellen Davis,
National Retail Federation VP
presented by: 400 W. Wilson Bridge Rd.Suite 200Worthington, OH 43085Ph: [email protected]
© 2011, Prosper®
Consumer Intentions & Actions: May
Disclaimer: BIGresearch® makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning: data gathered or obtained by BIGresearch from any source; the present or future methodology employed in producing BIGresearch statistics; or the BIGresearch data and estimates represent only the opinion of BIGresearch and reliance thereon and use thereof shall be at the user’s own risk.
BIGresearch® is a registered trademark of Prosper Business Development Corp.
This report is derived from the following BIGresearch® Studies:
• BIGresearch® Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey (CIA™), May 2011 (N = 8344, respondents surveyed 5/3 – 5/10/11)
• BIGresearch® Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey Trends, May 2004 – May 2011
• Consumer Confidence• More or Less Safe? Life Without Osama bin Laden• Employment Environment• Practical Purchasing• Effects of Escalating Pump Prices• 90 Day Outlook: Future Purchase Plans
• Guest Contributor: Ellen Davis, National Retail Federation VP• Retail Industry Sales• Graduation Insights• Father’s Day Insights
© 2011, Prosper®
Consumer Confidence
Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey, MAY 10-11
Confident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong EconomyAdults 18+
May-10
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May-11
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
31.5%
27.3%
32.2%
27.9%
© 2011, Prosper®Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey, MAY 04-11
Confident/Very Confident in Chances for a Strong EconomyAdults 18+
Consumer Confidence
May-04
May-05
May-06
May-07
May-08
May-09
May-10
Apr-11 May-11
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
44.9
%
42.5
%
38.7
%
44.7
%
19.5
%
31.2
%
31.5
%
28.6
%
27.9
%
May-10
Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May-11
26%
27%
28%
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
31.5%
27.3%
32.2%
27.9%
© 2011, Prosper®
More or Less Safe? Life Without Osama bin Laden
More safe; 13.3%
The same; 68.3%
Less safe; 18.4%
In light of Osama bin Laden's death, do you feel more, the same or less safe when it
comes to national security?
Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey, MAY-11
© 2011, Prosper®
More or Less Safe? Life Without Osama bin Laden
Yes; 5.3%
No; 87.9%
I don't know; 6.8%
Do you believe the death of Osama bin Laden will end the terrorist threat to the
United States?
Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey, MAY-11
© 2011, Prosper®
Employment Outlook
Regarding the U.S. employment environment, over the next 6 months, do you think that there will be more, the same or fewer layoffs than at present?Adults 18+
* U.S. Unemployment Rate for the previous month for each corresponding MMM-YY, as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor StatisticsSource: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions Survey®, MAY 08-11
May-08 May-09 May-10 Apr-11 May-110%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
23.3% 20.1%
More Same Fewer
8.9%*
4.9%*
9.8%*
9.0%*
8.8%*
© 2011, Prosper®
Practicality in Purchasing
In the last 6 months, have you made any of the following changes?Adults 18+
Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey, MAY 06-11
May-06 May-07 May-08 May-09 May-10 Apr-11 May-110%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
40.9
%
36.7
%
42.2
%
47.4
%
42.9
%
48.8
%
44.8
%
49.5
%
44.8
%
50.7
%
56.9
%
51.5
%
57.9
%
54.9
%
I have become more practical and realistic in my purchases
I focus more on what I NEED rather than what I WANT
Upward Trend
Continues
© 2011, Prosper®
Effects of Escalating Pump Prices
Fluctuating Gas Prices Have Impacted My SpendingAdults 18+
Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey, MAY 10-11 Energy Information Administration (All Grades, All Formulations)
43.0%45-54 year olds using
coupons more often to defray fuel expenses
50%+Adults 45 and older who are taking fewer shopping trips to
conserve gas (and $$$)
74.2%Anticipate gas prices will
continue to rise through the end of MayMay-
10Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May-
11
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
$2.00
$2.25
$2.50
$2.75
$3.00
$3.25
$3.50
$3.75
$4.00
$4.25
Gas Prices Have Impacted Spending Avg. Retail Gasoline Prices (per gal.)
% Im
pa
cte
d
Av
g. R
eta
il G
as
olin
e P
ric
es
(p
er
ga
l.)
© 2011, Prosper®
Category: Apr-11 May-10 May-09 Category: Apr-11 May-10 May-09
Children’s up down up Toys/Games up down up
Women’s Dress up down up CDs/DVDs/Videos/Books up down up
Women’s Casual up down up Electronics up down up
Men’s Dress up down up Groceries up down down
Men’s Casual up down up Home Improvement up down down
Shoes flat down flat Lawn & Garden flat down down
HBC up flat up Home Furniture flat down up
Dining Out up down up Home Décor up down up
Sporting Goods up down up Linens/Bedding/Draperies up down up
90 Day Outlook: Future Purchase Plans
Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook(May-11 compared to Apr-11, May-10, and May-09)
Note: “Up,” Down,” “Flat” refers to the direction of the Diffusion Index compared to the previous month (Mar-11) or years (May-10, May-09, May-08). Diffusion Index = % Spending More - % Spending Less.
Source: BIGresearch®, Consumer Intentions & Actions® Survey, MAY 09-11
Over the next 90 days (May, June and July), do you plan on spending more, the same or less on the following items than you would normally spend at this time of the year? Adults 18+
© 2011, Prosper®
Retail Industry Sales
• Ten straight months of growth
• April sales saw gains from health and personal care stores, and clothing stores
• Commodity and gas prices impacting spending
© 2011, Prosper®
Graduation
• About one-third of Americans will buy a graduation gift
• Cash is falling out of favor with gift-givers, as are other traditional gifts
© 2011, Prosper®
Father’s Day
• Dad must have been really good this year• Spending hits $106 – an all-time high• Men are spending more than women• Practical gifts like automotive accessories
seeing increases• Online shoppers will spend 63% more than
those who only shop in stores
© 2011, Prosper®
Contact
BIGresearch®400 W. Wilson Bridge Road, Suite 200Worthington, OH 43085Ph: [email protected]
For more information: www.BIGinsight.com
National Retail Foundation325 7th Street, NW, Suite 1100Washington, DC 20004Ph: 1-800-673-4692
For more information: www.nrf.com