may 2001european commission - directorate general for agriculture - a2 1 european commission -...

May 2001 European Commission - Directorate General for Agriculture - A2

1European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003

Inventory and projection experts workshop Working group I and II of the EU GHG

Monitoring mechanism Committee

EU-wide projections of animal numbers

Methodology and availability of data

European Commission


2

European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General 28th February 2003

• Availability of statistics, short-term estimates and long term projections (Agriculture Directorate General, Eurostat, other)

Structure of the presentation

Introduction

• Short-term estimates based on demographic models at Member States level

• Medium and long term market projections and policy analysis at EU15 and EU25 level

Methodologyand

policy modeling

Conclusion • Summary of key findings

• Example of impact on animal numbers of proposed reform of Common Agricultural Policy

CAP reform


3


• Surveys and censuses carried out by Member States and published by EUROSTAT

Availability of statistics and projections

Official Statistics

• Short-term projection of Gross Indigenous Production (number of heads) carried out by Member States and published by EUROSTAT

Census and Surveys Cattle Pigs Sheep/GoatMinimim number per year 1 to 2 1 to 4 1

Gross Indigenous Production Cattle Pigs Sheep/GoatNumer of updates per year 2 3 1Projection period 3 half years 3 quarters 2 half years


4


Availability of statistics and projections

• Statistical annex of the Annual report on the situation of EU Agriculture

• Long-term prospects for agricultural markets

• Ad-hoc publications (e.g. impact assessment of Mid Term review of Agricultural Policy)

Other official

sources


5


Methodological approach

• Gross Indigenous Production calculated by Member States on the basis of harmonised methodology

– mostly based on detailed herd structure data provided by census and surveys

– frequent use of other statistical sources, like administrative databases and registers

– in most cases simple forecasts directly linked to breeding animal numbers

Short-term projections


6



• DG Agriculture projections rely on a partial equilibrium model derived from the OECD AGLINK model

– Partial equilibrium (more than 3100 equations, of which around 1500 endogenous)

– Recursive dynamic

– World coverage: 13 countries/regions

– Product coverage: more than 30 commodities

• Prices (and policy) determine the level of production and consumption

• Output: balance sheet for main commodities, domestic and world market prices

Long-term projections


7



• Currently published for EU-15 as a whole and for the Acceding Countries (yearly projections 2002-2009):

– Beef and veal production (in tons)

– Dairy cow herd (in heads)

– Pig meat production (in tons)

– Poultry meat production (in tons)

– Sheep and goat meat production (in tons)


What is available?


8




Dairy cows herd projections under status quo policy (Agenda 2000)

80000

85000

90000

95000

100000

105000

110000

115000

120000

125000

130000

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Prod

uctio

n (0

00 t)

15000

17000

19000

21000

23000

25000

27000

Dai

ry h

erd

(000

hea

d)

Production

Dairy herd

Deliveries


9



• The case of beef:– Beef and veal production (in tons)Long-term

projections

How it is calculated?

Beef cow Inventory Beef returnmilk cow invent.milk productionmilk production

Beef production

Male bovine direct payments

Suckler cow direct payments

Adult cattle slaughter premia

Calf slaughter premia

Feed cost index

PositiveNegative

elasticity

Behavioral

Identity

Exogenous

Beef price

Market clearing


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• The case of beef:– how to model direct paymentsLong-term

projections

How it is calculated?

Ceiling

Payments

Cow numbers

Price

Supply

Source: OECD Secretariat

Ceiling

Ceiling


11


• The case of beef:– how to remove direct payments

Price

Supply

Ceiling

Impact of policy changes

Impact of policy changes on total herd size

Price

Supply

S

S


12

European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General

Expected impact of CAP reform proposals on beef production and prices

Changes in beef production and prices, 2004 - 2009 (%)

-2%

-5%

0%

5%

6%

7%

0%1%

-1%

-3% -3%

0%

-6%

-3%

0%

3%

6%

9%

12%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Production

Prices

28th February 2003


13

European Commission - Agriculture Directorate-General

Expected impact of proposed CAP reform on cow herd

Changes in cow herd, 2004 - 2009 (%)

28th February 2003

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

% c

han

ge c

om

pare

d t

o b

aseli

ne

Suckler cow herd total cow herd


14


• Detailed statistics are available both from Eurostat and DG Agriculture

• Short and long term projections are regularly published

Conclusions

Data availability

• Short-term estimates based on demographic models at Member States level

• Medium and long term market projections and policy analysis at EU15 and EU25 level based on large partial equilibrium models

Methodologyand

policy modeling

• Example of impact on animal numbers of proposed reform of Common Agricultural Policy

CAP reform


15


• http://europa.eu.int/comm/agriculture/index_en.htm

References

DG Agricultureweb page

Main publicationsavailable at :

• http://europa.eu.int/comm/agriculture/publi/index_en.htm

• Long term prospects for agricultural markets 2002-2009: http://europa.eu.int/comm/agriculture/publi/caprep/prospects2002/index_en.htm

• CAP reform: Impact analyses of the mid-term review July 2002 proposals: http://europa.eu.int/comm/agriculture/publi/reports/mtrimpact/index_en.htm

• Agriculture in the European Union: Statistical and economic information 2001: http://europa.eu.int/comm/agriculture/agrista/2001/table_en/index.htm

may 2001european commission - directorate general for agriculture - a2 1 european commission -...

Documents

agriculture projections

agriculture a2

eurostat slide

long term market projections

projections statistical

policy analysis

level of production

member states level