market view q1 2016

Market View Year 2015, January – March 2016

IRI Greece, Insights

May 2016

Copyright © 2016 Information Resources, Inc. (IRI). Confidential and Proprietary. 2

Value Sales Trend: Super/Hyper Markets FMCG Metrics

Super/Hyper Markets (including Key Retailers, smaller Retailers and Sklavenitis real data)

Channels

Greece Mainland

Crete Areas

YR 2015 vs YR 2014

January-March 2016 vs January-March 2015 Periods

Table of contents


Stores with large selling spaces (over 2500 sqm) and even broader range of products

Hypermarket

Self-service retail stores with a central check-out area and at least 2 cash registers, offering a large variety of groceries as well as consumer durables and goods

Supermarket

Self-service retail stores carrying mainly groceries in limited range with emphasis on own label products and low prices

Discounters

Channels definitions


Greece economy

RETAIL TURNOVER INDEX (w.o AUTOMOTIVE FUEL)

INFLATION RATE TREND UNEMPLOYMENT

-4 .9%

-7.1%

-5.3%

-1.8%

-0.2%

-6.4%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

GDP

4.7%

3.3%

-0.9%-1.3%

-1.7%

1.5%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

14.8%

21.0%

27.5% 26.5%25.0%

26.9%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

-1.2%

-7.2%

-8.6%

-1.0% -1.0%

-11.3%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Jan/Oct

'15 vs.

Jan/Oct

'14

Source: ELSTAT Feb 2016 (latest available period/provisional data)


HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND

YR 2013YR 2014

YR 2015

YR 2013 YR 2014 YR 2015

-1.4%

-2.1%

Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM (including Key Retailers, smaller Retailers and Sklavenitis data)

In 2015 the negative sales trend is deccelarating compared to the previous years


HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND

YTD 2014 YTD 2015YTD 2016

YTD 2014 YTD 2015 YTD 2016

+0.5%

-7.8%

Overall sales in YTD are declining

Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM (including Key Retailers, smaller Retailers and Sklavenitis data), YTD: Jan-Mar 2016


TRENDS PER SHOP TYPE - YTD

The decline is far sharper in Hyper markets and small Super markets

0-400 sqm

2500+ sqm

400-1000 sqm

1000-2500 sqm

• % Value Contribution: 13,2%

• Value sales trend: -19,3%









HM/SM SALES AND PRICE TREND

Prices seem to be slightly increasing in YTD

-1,4 -2,1

-7,8

0,6

-2,1

-8,6

-2,0

0,2 0,8

2014 2015 YTD 2016

Value Volume Price per Volume



HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND BY MONTH

-0,4%

-3,7%

-0,6%

-7,7%

-1,4%

-2,9%

-6,9% -6,6%

-4,1%

-2,4% -3,1%

-2,6%

-4,2%

3,0%

-2,7%

-4,8%

4,1%

1,5% 1,5%

-3,3%

-3,1% -3,4% -2,7%

-2,5%

2,3%

-4,4%

3,1%

-6,3%

-0,1%

5,5%

-8,3%

-0,5%

-2,6%

-3,9% -3,6%

-7,5%

-6,0%

-8,3% -8,8%


Sharp decline of previous months continues also in March


HM/SM UNIT SALES TREND BY MONTH

1,9%

0,8%

3,2%

-2,5%

-0,6% 0,0%

-5,6% -6,0%

-2,3% -2,7%

-1,8% -1,6%

-3,1% -2,5%

-3,2%

0,3%

-2,6%

1,5%

3,2%

-7,2% -5,5% -5,4% -6,4% -8,5%

2,0%

-5,0%

1,4%

-7,6%

-0,8%

4,8%

-9,3%

-3,8%

-6,7%

-9,5% -7,8%

-11,6% -11,2%

-11,7%

-13,5%


Unit sales follow the same pattern


HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND 2015

-2,0%

-2,4%

-2,1%

FOOD

HBA

HOUSEHOLD

YTD

-8,4%

-5,6%

-5,4%

FOOD

HBA

HOUSEHOLD


All segments mark negative trends in YTD in value sales...


HM/SM UNIT SALES TREND 2015

-4,4%

-3,9%

-2,4%

FOOD

HBA

HOUSEHOLD

YTD

-13,0%

-6,4%

-9,8%

FOOD

HBA

HOUSEHOLD


...as well as in unit sales



Frozen and packaged foods were the only categories with a positive growth in value

HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND 2015

-1,2%

-3,7%

-2,4%

-2,4%

1,7%

-0,3%

-4,5%

1,1%

-4,0%

-2,0%

-5,5%

HOUSEHOLD CLEANERS & DETERGENTS

OTHER HOUSEHOLD PRODUCTS

PERSONAL CARE & BEAUTY

PERSONAL HYGIENE

PACKAGED FOOD

SNACKS

DAIRY

FROZEN FOOD

COOKING AIDS, INGREDIENTS & CONDIMENTS

NON ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES

ALCOHOL DRINKS



Packaged foods was the only category with a positive growth in unit

HM/SM UNIT SALES TREND 2015

-2,6%

-2,2%

-3,0%

-4,8%

0,3%

-5,5%

-5,3%

-2,4%

-7,8%

-4,3%

-7,9%




PERSONAL HYGIENE

PACKAGED FOOD

SNACKS

DAIRY

FROZEN FOOD



ALCOHOL DRINKS


HM/SM VALUE SALES TREND YTD

-4,2%

-7,8%

-3,8%

-7,3%

-7,7%

-6,6%

-8,9%

-14,5%

-6,8%

-6,6%

-13,8%




PERSONAL HYGIENE

PACKAGED FOOD

SNACKS

DAIRY

FROZEN FOOD



ALCOHOL DRINKS

Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM (including Key Retailers, smaller Retailers and Sklavenitis), YTD: Jan-Mar 2016

All categories decrease in value during the first 3 months of 2016


HM/SM UNIT SALES TREND YTD

-6,5%

-13,0%

-3,0%

-9,7%

-12,7%

-14,2%

-10,9%

-21,8%

-15,5%

-8,9%

-19,2%




PERSONAL HYGIENE

PACKAGED FOOD

SNACKS

DAIRY

FROZEN FOOD



ALCOHOL DRINKS


The same applies for unit sales



Winning and losing categories in YTD

CATEGORIES WITH THE BIGGEST GROWTH IN VALUE

CATEGORIES WITH THE BIGGEST DECLINE IN VALUE

• Food supplements • Cooking fats

• Insecticides • Iron aids and water

• Baby food (jars, juices, biscuits) • Olives

• Frozen pizza • Choco eggs

• Antibacterial wipes • Seasonal chocolates

18

Leading barcodes IRI InfoScan


No 3

• Φρέσκο γάλα ΔΕΛΤΑ 1lt 3.5% λιπαρά

No 2

• Νερό Ζαγόρι 500ml

No 1 in unit

• Καραμολέγκος σταρένιο φόρμα 680γρ

Leading barcodes for March ‘16 in terms of value and unit sales

No 3

• Νescafe classic 100γρ

No 2

• Λουμίδης Παπαγάλος παραδοσιακός 200γρ

No 1 in value

• Καραμολέγκος σταρένιο φόρμα 680γρ

Top 3 barcodes contribute 0.89% of total FMCG value sales

Top 3 barcodes contribute 1.16% of total FMCG sales in units

Source: IRI InfoScan, HM/SM (including Key Retailers, smaller Retailers and Sklavenitis)

20

Top manufacturers’ performance IRI InfoScan


VALUE SALES TREND 2015 AND YTD

-7,8%

-2,8%

-7,1%

-13,0%

-4,7% -7,5% -6,6%

-14,2%

-4,6%

5,0%

13,0%

-3,0% -6,1%

-4,0%

-0,5%

-10,1% -6,9%

1,8%

-11,2% -11,4%

-1,2%

-19,3%

-5,9% -8,9%

6,7% 9,8%

TO

TAL M

ARKET

UN

ILEVER

P&

G

DELTA-B

. STATH

IS

NESTLE-P

URIN

A

CCH

BC-T

CCC

FRIE

SLAN

D

OLYM

PO

S

MO

ND

ELEZ

PAPAD

OPO

ULO

U

MEG

A

CO

LG

ATE-P

ALM

OLIV

E

FAG

E

ELBIS

CO

SARAN

TIS

HEN

KEL

ATH

EN

EAN

RECKIT

MIN

ERVA

BO

LTO

N

ION

SCA

TASTY

PEPSIC

O

GIO

TIS

KARAM

OLEG

OS

YTD

-2,1% -2,4% -6,8% -3,6% -2,2% -2,0% -5,4% -0,5% -1,0% 4,3% 20,5% 1,1% -10,0% 4,8% -5,8% 1,8% 1,4% -3,8% -2,4% 7,3% 1,9% -17,1% -0,6% -12,0% 5,6% 6,4%

Key manufacturers

Figures in blue indicate the trend for 2015 Source: IRI InfoScan, Ranked based on value sales 2015, YTD: Jan-Mar 2016


Your IRI contacts

FOR MORE INFORMATION

Simos Triandafillakis

[email protected]

(+30) 210 27 87 636

Orestis Thomaidis

[email protected]

(+30) 210 27 87 653

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market view q1 2016

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