bangkok office market q1 2010

The Knowledge Reportc o l l i e R s i n T e R n aT i o n a l | T H a i l a n D

executive summaryNo new office supply came onto the market in Q1 2010 and only a very limited supply is expected until Q4 2010 with the scheduled opening of Sathorn Square.

Very little relocation activity in Q1 reflecting the ongoing political impasse deterring companies from making long term plans.

Occupancy rates fell by 1% in the CBD and Outer CBD while the Northern Fringe recorded a nearly 1% increase in Q1.

Rental rates remained more or less the same in the CBD for Q1, although a fall in rates was more pronounced in the Northern Fringe. This was likely to be a correction to the steep rise in 2009.

As of March 31st, no discernable impact on the office market has come about from the ongoing demonstrations. However if these become protracted and effect the CBD area then this could have a negative impact over time as leasing contracts expire. Investors are also likely to put expansion plans on hold or pull out completely.

office Zoning

The general lack of zoning restrictions in Bangkok has led to the existence of significant office supply in a wide range of locations in the city and how the market has perceived the CBD has evolved over the past 20 years. The original CBD was located in the Silom and Surawongse roads, home to the vibrant gold market and other trading businesses. The development of modern office buildings with a larger floorplate in the nineties could not be accommodated in this area and the CBD began to take shape in the eastern section of Sathorn road. While Sukhumvit road up to Asoke is primarily perceived as an entertainment and residential area, a large number of grade A buildings sprung up in the nineties and also in the past few years. It is therefore considered as part of the CBD. As a working definition the CBD, for the purposes of office classification, is where a significant number of Grade A office buildings are located. As such the old CBD is considered Outer CBD as well as Petchburi road where more grade B offices are located. Over time this structure could evolve.

MaRKeT inDicaToRs

2009 - Q1 2010

new sUPPlY

DeManD

RenTals

occUPancY

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B a n g Ko K o f f i c e M a R K e T | 1 s T Q U a RT e R | 2 0 1 0

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The Knowledge Report | 1st Quarter | 2010 | Bangkok Office Market

Zoning

collieRs inTeRnaTional 3


HisToRical sUPPlY

Source : Colliers International Thailand Research


The office market landscape even today is a product of a five year boom period from 1992 to 1996 prior to the Asian Financial Crisis. Even after the crisis projects continued to be completed culminating in the 140,000 sq m Empire Tower in 1999, still the largest office building in the whole of Bangkok. The following five years were a fallow period for the office market as only a total

of around 186,000 sq m was completed which reflected the mori-bund property market in general in Bangkok at that time. It was only in the second half of the decade did growth in supply pick up with over four and half times more new supply being added in the last five years compared with the first five.

cUMUlaTive sUPPlY in BangKoK

aDDiTional sUPPlY foR eacH YeaR


sUPPlY BY Zone

The proportion of supply of office space by area shows how decentralized the office market is in Bangkok and how over the first 15 years this trend has become more pronounced. Less than 30% of office space is located in the CBD as of Q1 and the CBD

itself covers a wide area in Bangkok. Even with the Outer CBD included the figure still comes to well below half of the total.


office BUilDing sUPPlY BY Zone, 1994



Regional coMPaRison


Source : Colliers International Thailand Research / Colliers International Country Offices

office BUilDing sUPPlY BY Zone, Q1 2010

ToTal sTocK of office BoTH cBD/non-cBD in selecTeD asia-Pacific coUnTRies


The diffuse nature of the Bangkok office market is highlighted by a comparison with other countries in the region. A much great-er proportion of office space is located outside the CBD. The situation regionally is likely to change in favour of non-CBD locations due to the growth of the business process outsourcing (BPO) market and this is especially evident in the Philippines where a large number of offices are being built outside the Manila CBD as well as other cities such as Cebu.

The interesting aspect of the office market in Thailand as a whole is that almost all office space is located in Bangkok itself with only a negligible amount in the regions. Most office func-tions take place in shophouses and townhouses in similar fashion to Phnom Penh in Cambodia. This contrasts with other Asian countries which have office located in other parts of their coun-try such as Cebu in Philippines, Surabaya in Indonesia, Penang in Malaysia and Busan in Korea.




aveRage siZe of office BUilDing accoRDing To aRea

sUPPlY BY owneRsHiP, Q1 2010

The Outer City West has the highest average size in Bangkok but due to the limited number of offices in this area, one build-ing; the Thai Farmers Bank Head Office, with over 74,000 sq m of NLA, raises the average somewhat. The CBD comes in sec-ond place largely due to the number of grade A office buildings containing a large floorplate and consequently greater building size. The smaller sizes reflected in the Outer CBD reflects the

space limitations and smaller, older buildings located in west Si-lom and Surawongse. One notable feature is the smaller sizes in the Outer City East. In many Asian cities large office buildings are located outside the centre in order to accommodate the BPO industries which often require a large floorplate but low rentals.

A significant number of offices are multi-owner in what are also referred to as office condos. Almost all of these were built prior to 2000 when investors were looking to make rapid capital gains during the boom period that preceded the economic crash in 1997. There are some advantages of occupying multi-owner of-fice such as separate air conditioning systems which are cost ef-

fective for companies operating in non-working hours. However there are disadvantages in the form of sometimes uncoordinated property management and more expensive air conditioning sys-tems for companies using office predominantly in working hours. However occupancy rates are in general higher in multi-owner offices.


office siZe

sUPPlY BY owneRsHiP


It is interesting to note that future supply for the next couple of years will occur predominantly in the CBD area while no new supply will be constructed outside the Outer or Inner CBD. In fact the new supply will consist of only three projects with the lion’s share coming from Sathorn Square at the end of 2010.

While the trend in other cities in the region is to focus away from the CBD the situation in Bangkok is reversed as there is already a large proportion of existing supply located outside the CBD.

The Outer City West area has the highest occupancy rate, due to only 18 office buildings being located in this area and a low rental rate. The lack of mass transit lines in the Southern Fringe

and Outer City East is the likely reason for the lower occupancy rates in these locations.



fUTURe sUPPlY BY locaTion

occUPancY RaTe BY locaTion, Q1 2010


fUTURe sUPPlY

DeManD – TaKe UP



DeManD BY gRaDe

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The highest demand in Q1 2010 was for Grade B buildings which registered a higher occupancy rates.

Thailand remains in fourth place in the A.T. Kearny’s Global Services Location Index 2009 compared to 2007. This index ranks the top 50 countries worldwide for locating outsourcing activities, including IT services and support, contact centers and back-office support. While ahead of Indonesia (5th) and Philippines (7th) it remains firmly behind Malaysia, China and the king of them all, India. The Phillipines is making great strides to become a key BPO centre. The other ominous sign

is the dramatic rise of Vietnam, up nine places to tenth spot. A number of very large BPO companies have set up shop in the outer districts. While Thailand could benefit from the enormous potential growth it lags in relation to certain skills, especially second languages, that prevent it form being regarded as a key player.



Industrial growth is the main driver that powers the office mar-ket as this leads to the need for trading, financial, legal and insurance services amongst others to support it. After a dramatic drop in exports starting at the end of 2008, they have started to recover in the last three quarters. This bodes well for future

demand for office space although ongoing financial problems in Europe and the general retracement of fiscal stimulus in the majority of Thailand’ exports partners could spell many problems, exacerbated by foreign currency weakness of the Euro.

exPoRTs fRoM THailanD on QUaRTeRlY Basis

ToTal fDi foR vaRioUs secToRs as PeRcenTage 2000-2004

Colliers International Thailand ResearchSource : Bank of Thailand




The charts show the predominance of industry in FDI spending compared with the services and financial sectors. However the financial sector has held greater promise over the past five years but the services sector still continues to languish. Much of this FDI would be related to the hospitality industry and therefore

very little investment is made into businesses that directly drive office demand. The fact that the Board of Investment has largely focused their attention on the industrial would partially account for this.

The occupancy rate in the CBD area fell approximately 1% and in the Outer CBD a similar decrease was recorded. However the Northern Fringe recorded a 0.9% increase which is likely due to the falls in rental rates. The overall rise in occupancy rates for the first half of the last decade can be attributed to the limited

new supply coming on stream accompanied by steady economic growth which drove overall demand. However the second half of the 2000’s was a period of relative stagnation in the market due to political tensions in the country alongside the global financial meltdown in 2008.

ToTal fDi foR vaRioUs secToRs as PeRcenTage 2005-2010 feBRUaRY

occUPancY RaTe in 3 locaTions, 2001 – Q1 2010




occUPancY


RenTal RaTe BY Zone

BY gRaDe

RenTal RaTe

Unsurprisingly the CBD commands the highest rental rates due to the location and number of grade A buildings. Interestingly rents in the Northern Fringe are considerably higher than the Outer CBD. This could be explained by the fact that a signifi-cant number of offices are located close to both the BTS and MRT lines in the area while most offices in the Outer CBD are

located some distance from mass transit lines. While Colliers International Thailand have research that shows that condominium prices are higher the closer they are to mass transit stations, the same seems to be the case for offices. Being located near a mass transit station is preferable for both employees and business visitors alike.

Grade A offices have greater rental rates than those of grade B. The difference between grade B and C is rather small reflecting

that competition between these grades is intense and tenants see less distinction between the two.





In Q1 2010, rental rates for office buildings in CBD area fell slightly by 0.3% compared to Q4 2009. Rates fell more sharply

in the Northern Fringe but this was likely to be a correction after the steep rise in the previous year.

Rental rates of grade A office building have remain stable from 2007 while grade B recorded a small drop. Colliers International Thailand have noticed that some landlords have offered more

favourable terms for tenants to maintain occupancy during difficult economic times, especially for small businesses.

HisToRical RenTal RaTe in 3 Main locaTions, 2001 – Q1 2010

BY gRaDe



RenTal RaTe



foRecasT

Limited new supply for the next two quarters is likely to main-tain current rental and occupancy rates despite ongoing political tensions dampening demand. The addition of Sathorn Square in Q4 2010 will be a significant amount of space to absorb if the current impasse continues throughout the year.

Limited market activity is expected for Q2 due to the ramping up of political tensions that could define that quarter. A return to stability could lead to a rise in occupancy due to companies

resuming their growth strategies on the back of an increase in industrial activity.

A widening of incentives from the Board of Investment for the non-hospitality service sector would help encourage growth in the burgeoning BPO market as well as other areas that can help to drive demand for office space. A focus on the regions would help kick start office development where it is currently non-ex-istent.



conTacT infoRMaTion

THailanD: Patima Jeerapaet Managing Director [email protected]

Antony Picon Senior Manager | Research [email protected]

Surachet Kongcheep Manager | Research [email protected]

This report and other research materials may be found on our website at www.colliers.co.th. Questions related to information herein should be directed to the Research Department at the number indicated above. This document has been prepared by colliers international for advertising and general information only. colliers international makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. colliers international excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. colliers international is a worldwide affiliation of independently owned and operated companies.

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ASSET MANAGEMENTWasan Rattanakijjanukul | ManagerNukarn Suwatikul | Manager

CONSULTANCYNapart Tienchutima | Manager

COMMERCIAL / INDUSTRIAL /RETAILNarumon Rodsiravoraphat | Senior Manager

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bangkok office market q1 2010

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