market transformation and trade in oil product2016/07/14 · ice crude & refined products...
TRANSCRIPT
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Market Transformation and Trade in Oil Product
Barış Sanlı
EPPEN – The Second Eurasia Summer School (İzmir)
14 July 2016
www.barissanli.com
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Disclamer
None of the ideas in this presentation represents the ideas and position of the institutions and agencies which Barış Sanlı works with. Ideas should be taken as Barış Sanlı’s personal views without prejudice.
None of these slides should be used for trading or commercial purposes. The sole aim is to give a brief overview of oil trading literature
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In 45 minutes – An Overview
• Recommendation• David Long-Oil Trading Manual_ A comprehensive guide to the oil markets-
Woodhead Publishing (2003)• Sally Clubley-Trading in oil futures and options-Woodhead Publishing (1998)• Morgan Downey – Oil 101 – Wooden Table Press (2009)• Salvatore Carollo-Understanding Oil Prices_ A Guide to What Drives the Price
of Oil in Today's Markets-Wiley (2011)• IEA – Oil Market Report
• Examples From : Mercatus Energy Advisors• Start from : https://www.mercatusenergy.com/blog/bid/86597/The-
Fundamentals-of-Oil-Gas-Hedging-Futures
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Inside
1. History of Pricing
2. Brent Era
3. Exchanges
4. A Game Theoretic World?
5. Products (Refining)
6. Seasonality
7. Oil Market Report
8. Why Trade?
9. Some Concepts of Oil Trade
10. Forward, Futures, Spreads, Options
11. Scenarios
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Energy Technology Relation
© Barış Sanlı
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History of Pricing
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Price Formation History
Rockefeller First refinery 1865Ida Tarbell (1902-1904)Sherman AntiTrust (1890)Split 1911
© Barış Sanlı
Official Posted PriceNetback pricingTarget Price
Brent Futures
Rationing
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Standard Oil
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Methods & Expansion
• Undercutting prices
• Railroad rebates
• Corporate espionage and violence
• Technical innovation
Financial panic 1873 – controls refineries in PA and NY
1878 – 90% oil refined
http://are.berkeley.edu/~sberto/StandardOil.pdf
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TRC
http://oilpro.com/q/1602/opec-playing-hardball-time-tx-railroad-commission-to-reassert-its
Production Prorationing
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OPEC Era
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Netback System
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April 1978- March 1979
https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/WPM4-WhoMakestheOilPriceAnAnalysisofOilPriceMovements1978-82-SRoberts-1984.pdf
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Understanding OPEC Era
https://www.oxfordenergy.org/wpcms/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/WPM4-WhoMakestheOilPriceAnAnalysisofOilPriceMovements1978-82-SRoberts-1984.pdf
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KSA
http://www.seec.surrey.ac.uk/research/SEEDS/SEEDS93.pdf
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Brent Era
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Suicide of OPEC ? (From Salvatore Carollo)
• Lack of agreement on production control
• December 1988 OPEC, guided by Saudi Arabia• Abandon OSP
• Adopting Brent
Understanding Oil Prices, Salvatore Carollo
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Brent Era
ICE Crude & Refined Products
Discovery July 1971First oil tanker 13 December 1976
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Futures
• 1983 – IPE (International Petroleum Exchange) first attempt
• WTI not a benchmark for Europe (1984/1985)
• May 1985 Crude oil price index – (Nov 85 - > cash settlement)
• 1988 Brent contract settled in cash
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Brent-ology
• Brent : an oil field
• Brent Blend: blend of North Sea fields
• Dated Brent: physical Brent crude with loading dates
• 15(later 21) day BFO,BFOE(forward Brent): forward cargo 500,000 bbls
• IPE Brent : Cash settled contract for 1000 bbls
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BFOE Historical Production
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Early age
• 1950s very very small
• 1960s-1970s nearly all refining capacity controlled by majors
• Independent refiners
• Independents buying crude on spot market, selling back to market
• 1980s, oil majors not interested in spot markets
• BP in 1983 - > buying more than 50% from spot
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Before Shale Revolution
http://www.platts.com/im.platts.content/productsservices/conferenceandevents/2013/pc366/presentations/mike_davis_ice_future_enterprises.pdf
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Exchanges
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The ICE Perspective -
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Commoditization
http://apps.cnbc.com/view.asp?uid=stocks/charts&symbol=CLc1&tearoff=1
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A Game Theoretic World?
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New World – KSA – Game Theoretic Approach
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Oil Game
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ProductsHistory, Refining
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© Barış Sanlı
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Ref: ENI
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http://www.gasandoil.com/news/2011/03/global-refining-capacity-at-clouse
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Oil 101
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Refinery
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https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/60/RefineryFlow.png
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• http://www.gasandoil.com/news/2011/03/resolveuid/dfe2e5d3f6ae9302059c39ec8357f238
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Different Countries – Different Settings
http://www1.eere.energy.gov/vehiclesandfuels/pdfs/deer_2007/session7/deer07_williams.pdf
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Yields
IEA. (September 2012) IEA REfinery Margins,MEthodology Notes. Retrieved 10 Jul 2016, from
https://www.iea.org/media/omrreports/Refining_Margin_Supplement_OMRAUG_12SEP2012.pdf
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6e/Crude_Oil_Distillation-en.svg/2000px-Crude_Oil_Distillation-en.svg.png
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https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1035002/000119312514065039/d680806dex9901.htm
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Toppling/HydroSkimming refinery
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Catalytic Cracking
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Complex Refineries
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Canada – Yields vs Technology
Natural Resources Canada. (2016) Refinery Economics. Retrieved 10 Jul 2016, from
http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/energy/crude-petroleum/4561
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Global Refining Capacity
Table 3: Source. OGJ, P&G, C1 Energy and own research March 2011.http://www.gasandoil.com/news/2011/03/global-refining-capacity-at-clouse
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Europe
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Refinergy Net Cash Margin
http://www.woodmac.com/content/portal/energy/highlights/wk2__13/Jubail_Insight.pdf
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Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Seasonality
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Turkey
http://www.barissanli.com/calismalar/2014/bsanli-akaryakit-dinamikleri-subat2014.pdf
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Turkey - 2013
http://www.barissanli.com/calismalar/2014/bsanli-akaryakit-dinamikleri-subat2014.pdf
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Refinery Seasonality
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Total Products Demand - OMR
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Oil Market Reporthttps://www.iea.org/media/omrreports/fullissues/2016-06-14.pdf
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Price
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Crude Prices
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Panama
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IEA/KBC Global Indicator Refining Margins
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Why Trade?
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Price-3D
© Barış Sanlı
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© Barış Sanlı
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E&P
http://blog.ihs.com/north-american-eps-hedging-drops-off-in-2016,-exposing-group-to-reality-of-low-price-environment
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Affecting Shale Production
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2004 US DoD
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How airlines hedge?
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Some Concepts of Oil Trade
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Europe
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US
https://rbnenergy.com/netback-netback-to-where-you-started-from
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Brent/WTI Spread
Importance: a spread between waterborne cargo in North Sea and crude in Cushing
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Brent Dubai Spread
The spread between light and sour crude
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2:1:1 Transatlantic Crack
Two barrels of Brent, 1 heating oil and 1 gasoline
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Main Oil Future Contracts (Oil 101)
NYMEX Ticker
WTI Crude Oil CL
Heating Oil HO
Gasoline RB
ICE Futures Ticker
Brent LCO (Reuters)CO (Bloomberg)
Gasoil LGO (Reuters)QS (Bloomberg)
Jan, Feb…… December F,G,H,J,K,L,M,N,Q,U,V,X,Z
WTI for August 2016 : CL + Q + 6
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CLQ6
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CLc1 – Front Month
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Contango and Backwardation
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Contango - Backwardation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contango#/media/File:Contangobackwardation.png
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Fundamental Info
• Nymex• WTI, NY ULSD(former heating oil), RBOB gasoline
• ICE• Brent, gasoil
• Futures: right & obligation , centralized
• Forward:
• Short: sell
• Long : buy
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Forward, Futures, Spreads, Options
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Forward vs Futures
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Forward
• Physical contract• Extension of spot market
• Hard to distinguish
• Paper Contracts• Take the opposite position with a different counter party
• “Bookouts”
CFD (Contracts for Differences): Purely financial, price swap rather than futuresFor example Differential to June 15-day Brent … May2-6 = June+0.13, May 9-13 = +0.09
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Futures
• Hedging mechanism
• 99% not result in physical delivery
• EFP (Exchange for Physicals)• Using futures to price a physical transaction without getting involved in
exchange delivery process
• Physical deal normal way
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Futures Exchanges
• NYMEX
• ICE
• DME – Dubai Mercantile Exchange
• Shangai Futures Exchanges
• TURDEX
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_futures_exchanges
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Short Hedge
Oil Trading Manual, David Long, 6
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Long Hedge
Oil Trading Manual, David Long, 6
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Example
• To hedge October production, sell November crude futures
• Why? November expire middle of October
• November crude oil future $46.93
• When November settles with $35
• You gain 11.93
https://www.mercatusenergy.com/blog/bid/86597/The-Fundamentals-of-Oil-Gas-Hedging-Futures
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Speculation
• Opposite of Hedging
• Just for profit
• Hedge funds
Oil Trading Manual, David Long, 6
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Arbitrage
• Simultaneous buying of a product/crude in one market and sell in another
• If price diffs widen
Oil Trading Manual, David Long, 6
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Spreads
• Time
• Location
• Grade
Oil Trading Manual, David Long
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Spreads
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Options
• Like insurance• Call option – holder right to buy (ceiling)
• Put option – holder right to sell (floor)
• Pays a premium
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Buy a call option
Oil Trading Manual, David Long
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Put option
Oil Trading Manual, David Long
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Basis Risk
• Difference in price between the product/crude to be hedged and the hedging instrument being used (UK – David Long)
• The price difference between the price of an energy commodity in one market and the price of an energy commodity in different market. (US- Mercatus Energy)
Locational Basis- US Golf Coast ULSD vs New York Harbor ULSDProduct/Quality Basis- Singapore gasoil vs Singapore Jet fuelTime frame (calendar basis)- November NYMEX WTI crude oil futures vs calendar asp
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Long and Short Positions
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Type of deliveries
• FOB(Free on Board) : buyer takes title & risk at load port
• CFR (Cost and Freight) : seller arranges the transport, purchaser buys
• CIF(Cost, Insurance and Freight): Seller delivers to port, CFR+insurance
• DES (Delivered Ex Ship) : Seller tries to sell during the voyage, delivery takes place at destination
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Crack Spreads
• 1:1• Theoretical refining margin• Sell refined (diesel/gasoline) buy crude
• 3:2:1 and 5:3:2• 3:2:1
• Three crude futures, two gasoline one ULSD• 5:3:2
• Five crude, sell 3 RBOB gaso, 2 ULSD
• Paper refinery• Selling crack: sell gas/buy crude• Buying crack : buy gas/sell crude
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/files/EN-211_CrackSpreadHandbook_SR.PDF
https://www.theice.com/publicdocs/Oil_Futures_Forward_Curves.pdf
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https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/files/EN-211_CrackSpreadHandbook_SR.PDF
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Example
• In January, April Crude $90, May RBOB $109.20 (2.60/gallon)• 1:1 crack spread RBOB – Crude = 109.20-90 = $19.20
• In Cash market (physical) - March• Sells 1000 barrel gasoline $2.75/gallon• Buys 1000 barrel crude 100 $• Net positive cracking margin of 15.50
• Hedged 19.20• Unhedged 15.50
https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/energy/files/EN-211_CrackSpreadHandbook_SR.PDF
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Scenarios
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S 1- Market Wars
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S 2 – Petrodollar Deathend
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S 3 – Technology
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S 4 – Geopolitical Risks
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Thank you
• Barış Sanlı
• www.barissanli.com
• @barissanli