market technicians association free of charge!files.meetup.com/81154/1019-murphy.pdf · analysis!...
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The Market Technicians Association is the premier global organization for those interested in technical analysis!
The cost of membership is $300 per year and includesThe cost of membership is $300 per year and includes the following services FREE OF CHARGE!
• Weekly technical analysis webcasts, like the one you are participating in today, with leading analysts
•A Knowledge Base of technical analysis information, whitepapers, and educational videos
•A private social network for technical analysts and other financial professionals, called MyMTA
• Local Chapter Meetings, Regional Seminars, and an Annual Symposium
Find out more at http://go.mta.org/benefits
Intermarket AnalysisIntermarket AnalysisIntermarket Analysis Intermarket Analysis Has Become AnHas Become AnHas Become An Has Become An
Indispensable Part of Indispensable Part of d spe sab e a t od spe sab e a t oTechnical AnalysisTechnical Analysis
John MurphyJohn MurphyJohn MurphyJohn MurphyStockcharts.comStockcharts.com
A REVIEW OF THE A REVIEW OF THE NEWNEW NORMAL NORMAL
IN INTERMARKETIN INTERMARKETIN INTERMARKET IN INTERMARKET RELATIONSHIPSRELATIONSHIPS
---- BONDS AND STOCKS TRENDBONDS AND STOCKS TREND INVERSELYINVERSELY
---- STOCKS AND COMMODITIES TREND STOCKS AND COMMODITIES TREND TOGETHERTOGETHER
---- THE MAIN REASON FOR THE CHANGES IS THE MAIN REASON FOR THE CHANGES IS THE DEFLATIONARY TREND OF THE LASTTHE DEFLATIONARY TREND OF THE LASTTHE DEFLATIONARY TREND OF THE LAST THE DEFLATIONARY TREND OF THE LAST
DECADE DECADE
””LINK BETWEEN BONDS AND LINK BETWEEN BONDS AND STOCKS CHANGED INSTOCKS CHANGED INSTOCKS CHANGED IN STOCKS CHANGED IN 19981998””::IntermarketIntermarket Analysis Analysis
Bond Yields Lead Stocks Lower at Recent Top
Stocks and Commodities Are Stocks and Commodities Are Trending Together Trending Together (Just like (Just like
in the Deflationary 1930s)in the Deflationary 1930s)in the Deflationary 1930s)in the Deflationary 1930s)
COMMODITIES LEAD COMMODITIES LEAD STOCKS LOWER SINCE MAY STOCKS LOWER SINCE MAY
FIRMING DOLLAR PUSHES FIRMING DOLLAR PUSHES COMMODITIES LOWER COMMODITIES LOWER
Inverse Relationship Between Inverse Relationship Between Stocks and the Dollar Stocks and the Dollar
Dollar September Surge Dollar September Surge C f SC f SConfirms Stock BreakdownConfirms Stock Breakdown
SECTOR ROTATION MODELSECTOR ROTATION MODELSECTOR ROTATION MODEL SECTOR ROTATION MODEL
S t R t tiSector Rotation Model:
Defensive Rotation Followed Defensive Rotation Followed Sector Model at Market TopSector Model at Market Top
Global LinkagesGlobal Linkagesgg Global Stocks are Closely CorrelatedGlobal Stocks are Closely Correlated
Commodities Tied to Emerging MarketsCommodities Tied to Emerging Markets
hi ilhi il China Imports: Brazil ExportsChina Imports: Brazil Exports
Dollar Direction Impacts Foreign StocksDollar Direction Impacts Foreign StocksDollar Direction Impacts Foreign StocksDollar Direction Impacts Foreign Stocks
Rising Dollar Hurts Foreign Shares Rising Dollar Hurts Foreign Shares
INFLUENCE OF DOLLAR ONINFLUENCE OF DOLLAR ONINFLUENCE OF DOLLAR ON INFLUENCE OF DOLLAR ON FOREIGN STOCKSFOREIGN STOCKS
Foreign Markets Are Leading Foreign Markets Are Leading U.S. Market Lower U.S. Market Lower
Commodities Fall With Commodities Fall With Emerging Markets Emerging Markets
PEAK IN EURO LED TO PEAK IN EURO LED TO O S SO S SWEAKER EURO SHARESWEAKER EURO SHARES
German Stocks and CRB German Stocks and CRB Bounce off Support TogetherBounce off Support TogetherBounce off Support TogetherBounce off Support Together
CRB and Stocks Get October CRB and Stocks Get October B t F F lli D llB t F F lli D llBoost From Falling DollarBoost From Falling Dollar
Rising CRB and S&P 500 Rising CRB and S&P 500 Punish BondsPunish BondsPunish Bonds Punish Bonds
2011 Intermarket 2011 Intermarket RelationshipsRelationships
Dollar Dollar andand CRB CRB ↨↨ OppositeOpposite
D llD ll dd St kSt k ↨↨ O itO it DollarDollar and and StocksStocks ↨↨ Opposite Opposite
StocksStocks and and CRB CRB ↑↑↑↑TogetherTogether↑↑↑↑ gg
BondsBonds ↨↨ Stocks and CRBStocks and CRB
Bond YieldsBond Yields & & StocksStocks ↑↑↑↑ TogetherTogether
WHAT INTERMARKET WHAT INTERMARKET ANALYSIS DOESANALYSIS DOESANALYSIS DOESANALYSIS DOES
Bridges Gap Between EconomicBridges Gap Between Economic Bridges Gap Between Economic, Bridges Gap Between Economic, Fundamental and Tech. AnalysisFundamental and Tech. Analysis
Helps Move Technical Analysis Helps Move Technical Analysis Into Financial Mainstream Into Financial Mainstream
Adds New Dimension to Adds New Dimension to Traditional Technical AnalysisTraditional Technical AnalysisTraditional Technical AnalysisTraditional Technical Analysis
Thank You for Attending!If you’re interested in learning more about membership with theIf you re interested in learning more about membership with the
MTA, please contact Shane Skwarek at [email protected]
To find out more about the MTA, visit www.MTA.org