market situation and outlook 2016-201872nd session committee on commodity problems 26 –28...

72nd Session Committee on Commodity Problems26 – 28 September | FAO - Rome, Italy

MARKET SITUATION AND OUTLOOK 2016-2018

72nd Session Committee on Commodity Problems26 – 28 September | FAO - Rome, Italy 2

Significance of Tropical Products to Food Security

Sugar, 100%

Tea, 73%

Tea, 89%

Sugar, 37%

Bananas, >100%

Swaziland

Sri Lanka

Kenya

Guyana

Ecuador

Percentage of Food Import Bill covered by Export Earnings of Tropical Products in selected Countries (2016)


Monthly Price movements of Tropical Products 2000-2018

3

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Ap

r-0

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Oct

-00

Ap

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Oct

-01

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Oct

-03

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Oct

-04

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Oct

-05

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6

Oct

-06

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Oct

-07

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8

Oct

-08

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9

Oct

-09

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Oct

-10

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Oct

-11

Ap

r-1

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Oct

-12

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Oct

-13

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4

Oct

-14

Ap

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5

Oct

-15

Ap

r-1

6

Oct

-16

Ap

r-1

7

Oct

-17

Ap

r-1

8

Global Benchmark Price Indices for Sugar and Tropical Beverages (January 2000 = 100)

Sugar Coffee Tea FAO Food Price Index


Global Benchmark Price Indices for Jute, Hard Fibres and Cotton (January 2000=100)

4

0.0

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400.0

500.0

600.0

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Oct

-13

Ap

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4

Oct

-14

Ap

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5

Oct

-15

Ap

r-1

6

Oct

-16

Ap

r-1

7

Oct

-17

Ap

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8

Cotton Sisal Abaca Jute Coir


Market Development for selected commodities Tea global Market Developments 2010-2016

0

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1/5/02 1/6/02 1/7/02 1/8/02 1/9/02

Chart Title

Open High Low Close

0.00

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0.80

1.00

1.20

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0.0

1000.0

2000.0

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6000.0

7000.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Tho

usa

nd

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nn

es Kgs per capita

Production Consumption

Exports Per capita consumption- China (Mainland)

Per capita consumption -India


Sugar Global Market Developments 2010-2016

6

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25

30

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20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

200,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

US

cen

ts/l

b

Tho

usa

nd

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es

Production World domestic utilisation Exports Sugar ISA daily prices


Jute and Hard Fibres Global Market Development2010-2016

7

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Tho

usa

nd

to

nn

es

Production of coir fibre and coir yarn

Production of abaca

Production of sisal, henequen and other similar hardfibres

World production of jute, kenaf and allied Fibres

World exports of raw and processed jute, kenaf andallied fibres (in fibre equivalent)

World exports of coir fibre and coir yarn fromproducing countries (total including coir pith from SriLanka)

World exports of sisal and henequen fibres andmanufactures from producing countries


Global Production of Bananas and Tropical Fruits

8

95

100

105

110

115

120

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

Mill

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nn

es

Tropical Fruits Bananas * Preliminary estimate


Bananas Global Market Developments 2012-2017

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2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

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World Export EU Imports US Imports


Tropical Fruits Global Market Developments 2012-2017

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017*

Mill

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es

Mill

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World Exports EU Imports US Imports


Global Benchmark Price Indices for Selected Tropical Fruits2008-2017

0

50

100

150

200

250

January 2008 = 100

Avocado Pineapple Banana


Key factors likely to affect trade in tropical products

Supply side

• Extreme weather events under climate change

• Spread of pests and diseases (e.g. fruit fly, TR4, BBTV)

• Labor shortage in fast urbanization context (Jute, tea...)

• Export promotion in major producing countries

• Product diversification & new niches (Jute, sisal, coir...)

12

Demand side

• Rising purchasing power in emerging economies

• Health & fitness trends in major markets

• Rising awareness of sustainability issues (labels, taxes?)

• Market access: both liberalization & protectionism

trends

• Impacts of ICT (e.g. blockchain, e-commerce, …)


Suggested action by the Committee

The Committee is invited to take note of the market situation and outlook for the various food and agricultural commodities

and to discuss their implications in terms of food security for the current and coming seasons. The Committee may also wish

to:

Stress the importance of FAO’s commodity market monitoring, assessment and outlook work and reports for improved

market transparency and informed policy decisions;

Request FAO to strengthen these activities and support Members in this regard in an effort to achieve target 2c of the

second Sustainable Development Goal (SDG 2), which calls on governments to “Adopt measures to ensure the proper

functioning of food commodity markets and their derivatives and facilitate timely access to market information, including

on food reserves, in order to help limit extreme food price volatility”;

Urge governments and other stakeholders to keep enhancing the monitoring of supply, demand, trade and prices of food

and agricultural commodities and to make the data and information publicly accessible in a timely manner.

13


THANK YOU

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market situation and outlook 2016-201872nd session committee on commodity problems 26 –28...

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