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CHAPTER III

MEASURING PRICE FLUCTUATION USING MOVING

AVERAGE METHOD

3.1 INTRODUCTION

MOVING AVERAGE

This chapter deals with the analysis of price fluctuation of selected commodities using

Moving Average Analysis of 4 selected commodities.

The following are the description about the column used in the table, which showed the

analysis of moving average analysis.

Column Column Name Description

1 Date Trading Date

2 Close price Close Price in Rupees

3 Moving average

Moving average calculated for every month

available for trading in Rupees.

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MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

2012

MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 3.1 CHART 3.1

27000

27500

28000

28500

29000

29500

30000

30500

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

DECEMBER 2011

GOLD DECEMBER 2011

Date Close Price(Rs) Moving avg

1-Dec-11 28888

2-Dec-11 28891

3-Dec-11 28943 28907.333

5-Dec-11 28943 28925.667

6-Dec-11 29772 29219.333

7-Dec-11 30090 29601.667

8-Dec-11 30069 29977

9-Dec-11 29955 30038

10-Dec-11 29955 29993

12-Dec-11 29695 29868.333

13-Dec-11 29764 29804.667

14-Dec-11 29055 29504.667

15-Dec-11 28493 29104

16-Dec-11 28387 28645

17-Dec-11 28508 28462.667

19-Dec-11 28498 28464.333

20-Dec-11 28753 28586.333

21-Dec-11 28904 28718.333

22-Dec-11 28646 28767.667

23-Dec-11 28662 28737.333

24-Dec-11 28716 28674.667

26-Dec-11 28716 28698

27-Dec-11 28716 28716

28-Dec-11 28286 28572.667

29-Dec-11 27602 28201.333

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MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 3.2 CHART 3.2

27000

27200

27400

27600

27800

28000

28200

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

JANUARY 2012

GOLD JANUARY 2012

Date Close(Rs) Moving avg

2-Jan-12 27382

3-Jan-12 27656

4-Jan-12 27852 27630

5-Jan-12 27821 27776.333

6-Jan-12 27755 27809.333

7-Jan-12 27762 27779.333

9-Jan-12 27578 27698.333

10-Jan-12 27537 27625.667

11-Jan-12 27657 27590.667

12-Jan-12 27665 27619.667

13-Jan-12 27427 27583

14-Jan-12 27507 27533

16-Jan-12 27484 27472.667

17-Jan-12 27588 27526.333

18-Jan-12 27475 27515.667

19-Jan-12 27347 27470

20-Jan-12 27448 27423.333

21-Jan-12 27490 27428.333

23-Jan-12 27510 27482.667

24-Jan-12 27383 27461

25-Jan-12 27589 27494

27-Jan-12 27957 27643

28-Jan-12 27990 27845.333

30-Jan-12 28059 28002

31-Jan-12 28078 28042.333

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MOVING AVERAGE OF GOLD FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 3.3 CHART 3.3

27000

27500

28000

28500

29000

29500

30000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

FEBRUARY 2012GOLD FEBRUARY 2012

Date Close price Moving avg

1-Feb-12 28083

2-Feb-12 28155

3-Feb-12 27711 27983

4-Feb-12 27948 27938

6-Feb-12 28950 28203

7-Feb-12 28950 28616

8-Feb-12 29306 29068.67

9-Feb-12 29326 29194

10-Feb-12 29279 29303.67

11-Feb-12 29272 29292.33

13-Feb-12 29155 29235.33

14-Feb-12 29062 29163

15-Feb-12 29246 29154.33

16-Feb-12 29161 29156.33

17-Feb-12 29141 29182.67

18-Feb-12 29141 29147.67

20-Feb-12 29156 29146

21-Feb-12 29425 29240.67

22-Feb-12 29600 29393.67

23-Feb-12 29918 29647.67

24-Feb-12 29780 29766

25-Feb-12 29730 29809.33

27-Feb-12 29739 29749.67

28-Feb-12 29957 29808.67

29-Feb-12 29091 29595.67

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INTERPRETATION

The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of gold.

In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.30,090 and the minimum price is

Rs.27,602. In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.28,078 and the minimum price is

Rd.27,347. In the February month, the maximum price is Rs.29,957 and the minimum price is

27,711. It indicates that in the month of January there was high decline of gold because of the

recession and in the month of February there was a high fluctuation throughout the month.

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MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

2012

MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 3.4 CHART 3.4

51000

52000

53000

54000

55000

56000

57000

58000

59000

60000

61000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

DECEMBER 2011SILVER DECEMBER 2011

Date Close(Rs) Moving

avg

1-Dec-11 54953

2-Dec-11 55076

3-Dec-11 55270 55099.667

5-Dec-11 55501 55282.333

6-Dec-11 60101 56957.333

7-Dec-11 60525 58709

8-Dec-11 59656 60094

9-Dec-11 59656 59945.667

10-Dec-11 59656 59656

12-Dec-11 59851 59721

13-Dec-11 59800 59769

14-Dec-11 58777 59476

15-Dec-11 56810 58462.333

16-Dec-11 56922 57503

17-Dec-11 56922 56884.667

19-Dec-11 56423 56755.66720-Dec-11 56679 56674.667

21-Dec-11 56679 56593.667

22-Dec-11 56239 56532.333

23-Dec-11 56500 56472.667

24-Dec-11 57254 56664.333

26-Dec-11 56449 56734.333

27-Dec-11 56242 56648.333

28-Dec-11 54797 55829.333

29-Dec-11 52795 54611.333

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MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 3.5 CHART 3.5

49000

50000

51000

52000

53000

54000

55000

56000

57000

58000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

JANUARY 2012Date

SILVER JANUARY 2012

Close Moving avg

2-Jan-12 51330

3-Jan-12 53109

4-Jan-12 52761 52400

5-Jan-12 52740 52870

6-Jan-12 51868 52456.333

7-Jan-12 51845 52151

9-Jan-12 51749 51820.667

10-Jan-12 52566 52053.333

11-Jan-12 52607 52307.333

12-Jan-12 52770 52647.667

13-Jan-12 52001 52459.333

14-Jan-12 52124 52298.333

16-Jan-12 52315 52146.667

17-Jan-12 53207 52548.667

18-Jan-12 53428 52983.333

19-Jan-12 53387 53340.667

20-Jan-12 54825 53880

21-Jan-12 55548 54586.667

23-Jan-12 55565 55312.667

24-Jan-12 55365 55492.667

25-Jan-12 56411 55780.333

27-Jan-12 57165 56313.667

28-Jan-12 57229 56935

30-Jan-12 56992 57128.667

31-Jan-12 56422 56881

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MOVING AVERAGE OF SILVER FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 3.6 CHART 3.6

54000

55000

56000

57000

58000

59000

60000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

FEBRUARY 2012SILVER FEBRUARY 2012

Date Close

price

Moving

avg

1-Feb-12 56834

2-Feb-12 57023

3-Feb-12 56161 56672.67

4-Feb-12 56157 56447

6-Feb-12 56426 56248

7-Feb-12 57265 56616

8-Feb-12 56821 56837.33

9-Feb-12 57177 57087.67

10-Feb-12 56915 56971

11-Feb-12 56875 56989

13-Feb-12 56664 56818

14-Feb-12 56416 56651.67

15-Feb-12 56303 56461

16-Feb-12 56216 56311.67

17-Feb-12 55926 56148.33

18-Feb-12 56108 56083.33

20-Feb-12 56320 56118

21-Feb-12 57157 56528.33

22-Feb-12 57257 56911.33

23-Feb-12 58677 57697

24-Feb-12 58404 58112.67

25-Feb-12 58435 58505.33

27-Feb-12 58710 58516.33

28-Feb-12 60883 59342.67

29-Feb-12 57783 59125.33

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INTERPRETATION

The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of silver.

In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.60525 and the minimum price is Rs.52795.

In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.57229 and the minimum price is Rd.51330. In the

February month, the maximum price is Rs60883 and the minimum price is 56108. The table and

chart indicates that in the month of December there was a decline in silver price and in the month of

January and February there was a slow and steady increase in silver price.

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MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO

MARCH 2012

MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 3.7 CHART 3.7

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

DECEMBER 2011ALUMINIUM DECEMBER 2011

Date Close(Rs) Moving avg

1-Dec-11 110.85

2-Dec-11 112.15

3-Dec-11 111.6 111.5333333

5-Dec-11 110.9 111.55

6-Dec-11 111.2 111.2333333

7-Dec-11 110.8 110.9666667

8-Dec-11 109.85 110.6166667

9-Dec-11 110.5 110.3833333

10-Dec-11 110.5 110.2833333

12-Dec-11 110.05 110.35

13-Dec-11 110.3 110.2833333

14-Dec-11 109.45 109.9333333

15-Dec-11 108.7 109.4833333

16-Dec-11 108.2 108.7833333

17-Dec-11 108.3 108.4

19-Dec-11 107.35 107.95

20-Dec-11 108.15 107.9333333

21-Dec-11 108 107.833333322-Dec-11 108.1 108.0833333

23-Dec-11 108.85 108.3166667

24-Dec-11 108.85 108.6

26-Dec-11 108.85 108.85

27-Dec-11 108.5 108.7333333

28-Dec-11 109.05 108.8

29-Dec-11 108.15 108.5666667

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MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 3.8 CHART 3.8

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

JANUARY 2012ALUMINIUM JANUARY 2012

Date Close Moving

avg

2-Jan-12 110.05

3-Jan-12 110.6

4-Jan-12 111.85 110.83333

5-Jan-12 110.6 111.01667

6-Jan-12 110.45 110.96667

7-Jan-12 110.45 110.5

9-Jan-12 112.4 111.1

10-Jan-12 113.1 111.98333

11-Jan-12 113.55 113.01667

12-Jan-12 114.05 113.56667

13-Jan-12 112.6 113.4

14-Jan-12 112.9 113.18333

16-Jan-12 112.85 112.78333

17-Jan-12 114.2 113.31667

18-Jan-12 113.25 113.43333

19-Jan-12 113.65 113.7

20-Jan-12 113.2 113.36667

21-Jan-12 113.2 113.35

23-Jan-12 113.25 113.2166724-Jan-12 113.85 113.43333

25-Jan-12 113.5 113.53333

27-Jan-12 113.75 113.7

28-Jan-12 113.5 113.58333

30-Jan-12 113.2 113.48333

31-Jan-12 113.4 113.36667

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MOVING AVERAGE OF ALUMINIUM FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 3.9 CHART 3.9

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

FEBRUARY 2012ALUMINIUM FEBRUARY 2012

Date Close price Moving

avg

1-Feb-12 112.65

2-Feb-12 110.2

3-Feb-12 110.8 111.2167

4-Feb-12 110.8 110.6

6-Feb-12 110.9 110.8333

7-Feb-12 111.85 111.1833

8-Feb-12 112.25 111.6667

9-Feb-12 113.7 112.6

10-Feb-12 112.65 112.8667

11-Feb-12 112.85 113.0667

13-Feb-12 110.95 112.15

14-Feb-12 110.65 111.4833

15-Feb-12 110.3 110.6333

16-Feb-12 108.95 109.9667

17-Feb-12 108.25 109.1667

18-Feb-12 108.2 108.4667

20-Feb-12 108.6 108.35

21-Feb-12 111 109.2667

22-Feb-12 112.55 110.7167

23-Feb-12 112.2 111.9167

24-Feb-12 111.65 112.1333

25-Feb-12 111.55 111.8

27-Feb-12 111.24 111.48

28-Feb-12 112.1 111.63

29-Feb-12 112.65 111.9967

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INTERPRETATION

The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of aluminium.

In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.112.15 and the minimum price is

Rs.107.35. In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.114.2 and the minimum price is

Rs.110.65. In the February month, the maximum price is Rs.112.85 and the minimum price is

Rs.108.2. The table and chart indicates that in the month of December there was a full decline and in

the month of January a slow and steady increase in aluminium. But in the month of February the

aluminium price was highly fluctuated.

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MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FROM DECEMBER 2011 TO MARCH

2012

MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF DECEMBER 2011

TABLE 3.10 CHART 3.10

385

390

395

400

405

410

415

420

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

DECEMBER 2011COPPER DECEMBER 2011

Date Close(Rs) Moving

avg

1-Dec-11 412.1

2-Dec-11 414.4

3-Dec-11 415.2 0

5-Dec-11 419.45 416.35

6-Dec-11 416.15 416.93333

7-Dec-11 416 417.2

8-Dec-11 413.45 415.2

9-Dec-11 418.9 416.11667

10-Dec-11 420.05 417.46667

12-Dec-11 414.25 417.73333

13-Dec-11 415.6 416.63333

14-Dec-11 404.5 411.45

15-Dec-11 397.85 405.98333

16-Dec-11 397.75 400.03333

17-Dec-11 400.5 398.7

19-Dec-11 397.55 398.6

20-Dec-11 403.75 400.6

21-Dec-11 405.35 402.21667

22-Dec-11 408.05 405.71667

23-Dec-11 413.6 409

24-Dec-11 414.35 412

26-Dec-11 414.25 414.06667

27-Dec-11 410.9 413.16667

28-Dec-11 407.5 410.8833329-Dec-11 407.5 408.63333

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MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF JANUARY 2012

TABLE 3.11 CHART 3.11

390

395

400

405

410

415

420

425

430

435

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

JANUARY 2012

COPPER JANUARY 2012

Date close Moving avg

2-Jan-12 415.5

3-Jan-12 417.65

4-Jan-12 407.5 413.55

5-Jan-12 406.3 410.4833333

6-Jan-12 406.3 406.7

7-Jan-12 405.8 406.1333333

9-Jan-12 402.95 405.0166667

10-Jan-12 407.75 405.511-Jan-12 411.15 407.2833333

12-Jan-12 420.3 413.0666667

13-Jan-12 419.5 416.9833333

14-Jan-12 419.65 419.8166667

16-Jan-12 422.05 420.4

17-Jan-12 423.4 421.7

18-Jan-12 422.8 422.75

19-Jan-12 427.55 424.5833333

20-Jan-12 421.15 423.8333333

21-Jan-12 421.85 423.5166667

23-Jan-12 424.9 422.6333333

24-Jan-12 426.1 424.2833333

25-Jan-12 427 426

27-Jan-12 429.6 427.5666667

28-Jan-12 429.7 428.7666667

30-Jan-12 425.85 428.3833333

31-Jan-12 422.35 425.9666667

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MOVING AVERAGE OF COPPER FOR THE MONTH OF FEBRUARY 2012

TABLE 3.12 CHART 3.12

400

405

410

415

420

425

430

435

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23

FEBRUARY 2012COPPER FEBRUARY 2012

Date Close price Moving

avg

1-Feb-12 423.45

2-Feb-12 416.8

3-Feb-12 424.15 421.4667

4-Feb-12 424.1 421.6833

6-Feb-12 423.8 424.0167

7-Feb-12 426.1 424.6667

8-Feb-12 429.8 426.5667

9-Feb-12 439.15 431.6833

10-Feb-12 429.9 432.95

11-Feb-12 430.15 433.0667

13-Feb-12 424.85 428.3

14-Feb-12 423.65 426.2167

15-Feb-12 421.7 423.4

16-Feb-12 421.3 422.2167

17-Feb-12 412.25 418.4167

18-Feb-12 413.15 415.5667

20-Feb-12 414.6 413.3333

21-Feb-12 421.9 416.55

22-Feb-12 422.9 419.8

23-Feb-12 418.9 421.2333

24-Feb-12 423.1 421.6333

25-Feb-12 422.6 421.5333

27-Feb-12 426.65 424.1167

28-Feb-12 428.65 425.9667

29-Feb-12 425.55 426.95

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INTERPRETATION

The above tables and charts reveal the price fluctuation of copper.

In the December month, the maximum price is Rs.112.15 and the minimum price is

Rs.107.35. In the January month, the maximum price is Rs.114.2 and the minimum price is

Rs.110.65. In the February month, the maximum price is Rs.112.85 and the minimum price is

Rs.108.2. The table and charts indicates that in the month of December and February the price of

copper was highly fluctuated and in the month of January there was a slow and steady fluctuation.

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