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MARKET PULSE July 2015 1

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C.A.R.’s Market Pulse Survey is a monthly online survey to gather California REALTORS®’ sentiment about their last closed transaction and business activity for the previous month and the last year.

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Page 1: Market Pulse, July 2015

MARKET PULSEJuly 2015

1

Page 2: Market Pulse, July 2015

Survey Methodology

• Monthly online survey of 300+ CA REALTORS®

• Respondents are asked about their last closedtransaction and business activity in their market areafor the previous month and the last year.

2

Page 3: Market Pulse, July 2015

LASTTRANSACTION

3

Page 4: Market Pulse, July 2015

Nearly 2/3 of TransactionsClosed at theAsking Price orbelow

Q: Did your last closed transaction sell over, at or below asking price?

34%

43%

24%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15

Over Below At

4

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 5: Market Pulse, July 2015

Premium Paid OverAsking Price Flat

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold over asking price?

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15

7.1%

11% 11%

Average

5

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 6: Market Pulse, July 2015

Discount on Asking Price Increases

Q: At what percentage was your last closed transaction sold below asking price?

-14.0%

-12.0%

-10.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

Jul-14Aug-

14Sep-

14Oct-

14Nov-

14Dec-

14Jan-15

Feb-15

Mar-15

Apr-15

May-15

Jun-15

Jul-15

Average -5.8% -5.6% -5.8% -6.3% -12% -13% -11% -11% -11% -11% -7.0% -11% -9.6%

6

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 7: Market Pulse, July 2015

67% of Properties Receiving MultipleOffers

Q: How many offers did the seller in your last closed transaction receive?

66%65%

67%

40%

45%

50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15

7

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 8: Market Pulse, July 2015

Number of Offers Received Remained Flat

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15

2.72.9 3.0

Average

Q: How many offers did your last closed transaction receive?

8

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 9: Market Pulse, July 2015

Proportion of Properties with Listing PriceReductions increased significantly from prior month

Q: Were there any listing price reductions before escrow opened in your last closed transaction?

25%

21%

28%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

9

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 10: Market Pulse, July 2015

A marginal increase of Previous Renters

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a renter immediately prior to purchasing the property?

32%

37% 38%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

55%

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15

10

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 11: Market Pulse, July 2015

Fewer Sellers Becoming Renters

Q: Did the seller of your last closed transaction become a renter immediately after selling the property?

15% 15%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

22%

24%

26%

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15

11

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 12: Market Pulse, July 2015

Share of First-time Buyers Fluctuating Less in RecentMonths

Q: Was the buyer of your last closed transaction a first-time buyer?

32%

30%

32%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%Ja

n-1

4

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-14

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-14

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-15

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

% First-time Buyers Long Run Average

12

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 13: Market Pulse, July 2015

Majority Purchases are Primary Residences

Q: What was the intended use of the property?

78% 75% 78%

15%16% 16%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-14

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-14

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-15

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Primary residence Investment Vacation home Other

13

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 14: Market Pulse, July 2015

International Buyers Fluctuate

Q: Was the buyer an international client (one who was not a citizen or permanent resident of the U.S.)?

6.1%

7.9%8.0%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-14

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-14

Dec

-14

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-15

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

% International Buyers Long Run Average

14

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 15: Market Pulse, July 2015

MARKET CONDITIONS

15

Page 16: Market Pulse, July 2015

Floor Calls from Potential Clients Declining

Q: Compared to last month, the number of floor calls from potential clients in your market area this month was …

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15

Down Flat Up

16

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 17: Market Pulse, July 2015

ListingAppointments/Presentations toClientsSlowing Down

Q: Compared to last month, the number of listing appointments and presentations to clients in your market areathis month was …

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15

Down Flat Up

17

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 18: Market Pulse, July 2015

Open HouseTraffic Declining

Q: Compared to last month/year, open house traffic in your market area this month was …

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15

Down Flat Up

18

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 19: Market Pulse, July 2015

Auctions Steady

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of auctions in your market area this month was …

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15

Down Flat Up

19

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 20: Market Pulse, July 2015

All Cash Purchases FlatteningOut

Q: Compared to last month/year, the number of all cash purchases in your market area this month was …

34%

46%

19%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15

Down Flat Up

20

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 21: Market Pulse, July 2015

1 In 4 REALTORS®AreConcernedAbout Inventory

21

26%

16%

12%

4.3% 3.9% 3.5% 3.2%1.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Q: What is your biggest concern about the current real estate market?SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 22: Market Pulse, July 2015

Majority of REALTORS® Expect Better/SimilarMarketConditionsOver the NextYear

Q: What are your expectations for market conditions over the next year?

17%

47%

36%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15

Worsen Same Improve

22

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 23: Market Pulse, July 2015

Why REALTORS® Expect MarketConditions toWorsen

Rise in interest rates

Poor economy

Uncertainty in market

Decrease in home affordability

Q: Why do you expect real estate market conditions to worsen over the next year?

23

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

Page 24: Market Pulse, July 2015

What are REALTORS® Saying?

Market activity is stagnant.

No longer a sellers market

Escrows are closing late

Buyer and seller expectations are not in sync

Q: Do you have any specific comments, professional observations, or information that you would like to sharewith us--such as information on multiple bidding, changing buyer preferences, mortgage credit issues, orother topics?

24

Page 25: Market Pulse, July 2015

Top 10 Counties

Q: In which county do you live?

25

SERIES: Market Pulse SurveySOURCE: CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

June 2015 July 2015

1 Los Angeles Los Angeles

2 San Diego Orange County

3 Riverside Sacramento

4 Orange Santa Clara

5 Alameda San Diego

6 Santa Clara Riverside

7 Sacramento Contra Costa

8 San Luis Obispo Placer

9 Marin Alameda

10 Sonoma San Mateo