1 1

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Market Outlook

May 28, 2018

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Market Cues

Indian markets are likely to open flat tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.

U.S. Stocks turned in a lackluster performance during trading on Friday. The major

averages spent the day bouncing back and forth across the unchanged line before

closing mixed. The Dow Jones dipped by 0.2% to 24,753 and the Nasdaq climbed

up by 0.1% to 7,434.

U.K. stocks rose modestly during the last trading session to rebound from two days

of losses as the pound selloff resumed amid growing Brexit uncertainty and after the

release of first-quarter GDP data. The benchmark FTSE 100 was up by 0.1% at

7,730.

On domestic front, Indian shares posted strong gains for the second straight session

as investors took trade worries in their stride and oil prices eased on expectations of

a gradual increase in output from Russia and other large producers. The rupee's

rebound from multi-month lows also offered some support. The BSE Sensex closed

up by 0.8% at 34,925.

News Analysis

Sebi serves notice on ICICI Bank CEO Chanda Kochhar in Videocon Loan Case

Detailed analysis on Pg2

Investor’s Ready Reckoner

Key Domestic & Global Indicators

Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks

Refer Pg5 onwards

Top Picks

Company Sector Rating CMP

(`)

Target

(`)

Upside

(%)

Blue Star Capital Goods Buy 704 867 23.2

Dewan Housing Finance Financials Buy 616 720 16.9

Parag Milk Foods Others Buy 335 410 22.4

Navkar Corporation Others Buy 149 265 77.4

KEI Industries Capital Goods Buy 475 589 24.1

More Top Picks on Pg4

Key Upcoming Events

Date Region Event Description Previous

Reading

Consensus

Expectations

May 29, 2018 Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence 0.20 0.20

May 30, 2018 US Consumer Confidence 128.70 127.90

May 30, 2018 US GDP Qoq (Annualised) 2.30 2.30

May 30, 2018 China PMI Manufacturing 51.40 51.40

May 31, 2018 Germany Unemployment change (000's) (7.00) (10.00)

More Events on Pg7

Domestic Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

BSE Sensex 0.8 262 34,925

Nifty 0.9 91 10,605

Mid Cap 1.6 243 15,904

Small Cap 1.2 198 17,151

Bankex 1.0 299 29,541

Global Indices Chg (%) (Pts) (Close)

Dow Jones (0.2) (59) 24,753

Nasdaq 0.1 9 7,434

FTSE 0.2 14 7,730

Nikkei (0.0) (6) 22,445

Hang Seng 0.4 134 30,722

Shanghai Com (0.1) (4) 3,137

Advances / Declines BSE NSE

Advances 1,609 1,175

Declines 1,043 622

Unchanged 153 68

Volumes (` Cr)

BSE 3,025

NSE 30,928

Net Inflows (̀ Cr) Net Mtd Ytd

FII (262) (6,318) 1,079

*MFs 760 10,529 56,282

Top Gainers Price (` ) Chg (%)

GDL 199 20.0

TIMETECHNO 155 14.6

MCX 819 13.8

IFCI 19 11.9

HATHWAY 31 9.3

Top Losers Price (` ) Chg (%)

GRANULES 79 -4.4

SOBHA 524 -4.0

RAJESHEXPO 609 -3.5

GET&D 321 -3.1

IDBI 65 -3.1

As on May 25, 2018

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Market Outlook

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News Analysis

Sebi serves notice on ICICI Bank CEO Chanda Kochhar in Videocon

Loan Case

Market regulatory Sebi has served a notice on ICICI Bank CEO and MD Chanda

Kochhar on dealings of the bank with Videocon Group and Nupower, an entity in

which her husband Deepak Kochhar has economic interests, the private sector

lender. Appropriate response would be submitted to the Sebi, the country's largest

private bank said in a stock exchange filing. The CBI has launched a preliminary

investigation into Rs 32.50 billion loan ICICI Bank had extended to Videocon in

2012 and the possible role of Kochhar's husband -- Deepak Kochhar.

Reports have alleged that Videocon chairman Venugopal Dhoot invested Rs 640

million in Nu Power Renewables, a firm owned by Deepak Kochhar after Videocon

secured a loan from a consortium of banks, including ICICI. ICICI has denied any

wrongdoing in the loan, saying it was part of a consortium of lenders that

extended the facility to Videocon. The notice, it further said has been issued based

on information furnished by the Bank/its MD & CEO to diverse queries made by

Sebi concerning dealings between the bank and Videocon Group and certain

dealings allegedly between Videocon Group and Nupower, an entity in which

Deepak Kochhar spouse of MD& CEO has economic interests.

Economic and Political News

Saudi Arabia, Russia plan to raise oil production by 1 mn barrels/day

CII lauds Modi govt, says Indian economy strong, reforms on track

Govt orders out-of-turn coal for state-run power firms, pvt ones to be hit

Railways plans to hike coal supply to power firms as inventories plunge

Corporate News

Mother Dairy plans milk unit, distribution centre in Odisha for Rs 1.75 bn

L&T, Reliance bidders for Yogi's flagship Rs 182 bn Purvanchal Expressway

ONGC to quadruple output from Bay of Bengal gas field that cost $1 bn

L&T Construction- Marubeni JV bags Rs 31.9 bn order for Dhaka Metro

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May 28, 2018

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Quarterly Bloomberg Brokers Consensus Estimate

Larsen & Toubro Ltd – May 28, 2018

Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)

Sales 41,067 36,618 12.2 28,747 42.8

EBIDTA 5,011 5,394 (7.1) 4,658 7.5

% 12.2 14.7

16.2

PAT 2,994 3,180 (5.9) 1,617 85.2

NTPC Ltd – May 28, 2018

Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)

Sales 21,604 20,416 5.8 20,774 3.9

EBIDTA 6,128 4,679 30.9 5,217 17.4

% 28.4 22.9

25.2

PAT 2,714 2,079 30.5 2,360 15.0

Auro Pharma Ltd – May 28, 2018

Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)

Sales 4,187 3,641 14.9 4,336 (3.4)

EBIDTA 962 721 33.4 1,025 (6.2)

% 22.9 19.8

23.6

PAT 606 532 13.9 595 1.8

NMDC Ltd – May 28, 2018

Particulars ( ` cr) 4QFY18E 4QFY17 y-o-y (%) 3QFY18 q-o-q (%)

Sales 3,532 2,871 23.1 2,469 43.1

EBIDTA 2,009 932 155.6 1,209 66.2

% 56.8 32.5

49.0

PAT 1,294 511 153.2 886 46.1

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Market Outlook

May 28, 2018

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Top Picks

Company Market Cap

(` Cr)

CMP

(`)

Target

(`)

Upside

(%) Rationale

Alkem Laboratories 23,386 1,956 2,441 24.8

Strong growth in domestic business due to its

leadership in acute therapeutic segment. Alkem

expects to launch more products in USA, which

bodes for it s international business.

Blue Star 6,759 704 867 23.2

Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur well

for Cooling products business which is out pacing

the market growth. EMPPAC division's profitability

to improve once operating environment turns

around.

Dewan Housing Finance 19,323 616 720 16.9

With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)

consumer segment, the company has increased its

presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth

opportunity i s immense.

ICICI Bank 1,90,636 297 416 40.3

Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives

sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster

resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost ,

which would help to report better ROE.

KEI Industries 3,721 475 589 24.1

High order book execution in EPC segment, rising

B2C sales and higher exports to boost the revenues

and profitability

Music Broadcast Limited 1,926 338 475 40.7

Expected to benefit from the lower capex

requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast

licensing.

Navkar Corporation 2,248 149 265 77.4

Massive capacity expansion along with rail

advantage at ICD as well CFS augur well for the

company

Siyaram Silk Mills 2,850 608 851 40.0

Strong brands and distribution network would

boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades at

an inexpensive valuation.

Maruti 2,58,183 8,547 10,619 24.2

GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to

improve the company’s sales volume and margins,

respectively.

GIC Housing 2,063 383 655 71.0

We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next

two year; change in borrowing mix will help in NIM

improvement

LT Foods 2,455 77 128 66.8

We expect sales/PAT to grow at 13.5%/20% over

next two years on the back of strong di stribution

network & addition of new products in portfolio.

Safari Industries 1,422 639 750 17.4

Third largest brand play in luggage segment

Increased product offerings and improving

distribution network is leading to strong growth in

business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4

years

HSIL Ltd 2,479 343 510 48.8

We expect HSIL to report PAT CAGR of ~15% over

FY2017-20E owing to better improvement in

operating margin due price hike in container glass

segment, turnaround in consumer business.

Source: Company, Angel Research

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Top Picks

Company Market Cap

(` Cr)

CMP

(`)

Target

(`)

Upside

(%) Rationale

Aditya Birla Capital 31,464 143 218 52.5

We expect financialisation of savings and

increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund

would ensure steady growth.

Parag Milk Foods 2,818 335 410 22.4

One of the leading Indian dairy products

companies in India created strong brands in dairy

products. Rising revenue share of high-margin

Value Added Products and reduction in interest cost

is likely to boost margins and earnings in next few

years.

Matrimony.com Ltd 1,701 749 1,016 35.7

We expect MCL to report net revenue CAGR of

~15% to ~`450cr over FY2018-20E mainly due to

strong growth in online matchmaking & marriage

related services. On the bottom-line front, we

expect a CAGR of ~28% to `82cr over the same

period on the back margin improvement.

HDFC Bank 5,22,421 2,012 2,315 15.1

HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the

4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.

Steady growth in interest income and other income

aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise

and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning

visibility. At the current market price, the bank is

trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.

M&M 102638 857 990 15.5

We expect strong PAT growth on back of healthy

growth in automobile segment (on back of new

launches and facelifts in some of the model ) and

strong growth in Tractors segment coupled by its

strong brand recall and improvement in rural

sentiment

Source: Company, Angel Research

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Market Outlook

May 28, 2018

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Fundamental Call

Company Market Cap

(` Cr)

CMP

(`)

Target

(`)

Upside

(%) Rationale

CCL Products 4,189 315 360 14.3

CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth trajectory

over FY18-20 backed by capacity expansion and

new geographical foray

Nilkamal 2,441 1,636 2,178 33.1

We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of

~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of

healthy demand growth in plastic divi sion. On the

bottom-line front, we estimate ~10% CAGR to

`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.

Elantas Beck India Ltd 1,633 2,059 2,500 21.4

Elantas Beck India i s the Indian market leader in

liquid insulation segment used in electrical

equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives

demand from several industries which are expected

to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming

years.

Greenply Industries 3,396 277 395 42.6

Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood

& allied products and medium density fibreboards

(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to

~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy

growth in plywood & lamination business on the

back of strong brand and di stribution network

GMM Pfaudler Ltd 1,273 871 920 5.6

GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian market

leader in glass-lined (GL) steel equipment. GMM is

expected to cross CAGR 15%+ in revenue over the

next few years mainly led by uptick in demand from

user industries and it is also expecting to increase its

share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.

L&T Finance Holding 33,668 169 210 24.5

L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve

ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of

`3000cr would support advance growth.

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Market Outlook

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Key Upcoming Events

Result Calendar

Date Company

May 28, 2018 Bank of India, Rural Elec.Corp., NMDC, Finolex Cables, MM Forging, Cadila Healthcare, Aurobindo Pharma

May 29, 2018 M&M, BHEL, IOB, Coal India, BPCL, Siyaram Silk Mills, Glenmark Pharma., Ipca labs, Power Grid Corpn, MT Educare

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Global economic events release calendar

Date Time Country Event Description Unit Period

Bloomberg Data

Last Reported Estimated

May 29, 2018 2:30 PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence Value May F 0.20 0.20

May 30, 2018 7:30 PM US Consumer Confidence S.A./ 1985=100 May 128.70 127.90

6:00 PM US GDP Qoq (Annualised) % Change 1Q S 2.30 2.30

6:30 AM China PMI Manufacturing Value May 51.40 51.40

May 31, 2018 1:25 PM Germany Unemployment change (000's) Thousands May (7.00) (10.00)

6:00 PM US Initial Jobless claims Thousands May 26 234.00

Jun 01, 2018 1:25 PM Germany PMI Manufacturing Value May F 56.80 56.80

6:00 PM US Change in Nonfarm payrolls Thousands May 164.00 190.00

6:00 PM US Unnemployment rate % May 3.90 3.90

2:00 PM UK PMI Manufacturing Value May 53.90 53.60

Jun 05, 2018 1:25 PM Germany PMI Services Value May F 52.10

Jun 06, 2018 2:30 PM India RBI Reverse Repo rate % Jun 6 5.75

2:30 PM India RBI Repo rate % Jun 6 6.00

2:30 PM India RBI Cash Reserve ratio % Jun 6 4.00

Jun 07, 2018 2:30 PM Euro Zone Euro-Zone GDP s.a. (QoQ) % Change 1Q F 0.40

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

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Macro watch

Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends

Source: CSO, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: IIP trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends

Source: MOSPI, Angel Research

Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI

Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion

Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research as on 25 May, 2018

Exhibit 6: Key policy rates

Source: RBI, Angel Research

7.3 7.6

8.0

7.2

9.1

8.1

7.6

6.8

6.1

5.7

6.5

7.2

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

4Q

FY15

1Q

FY16

2Q

FY16

3Q

FY16

4Q

FY16

1Q

FY17

2Q

FY17

3Q

FY17

4Q

FY17

1Q

FY18

2Q

FY18

3Q

FY18

(%)

2.9

(0.3)

1.0

4.8

4.1

1.8

8.5

7.3 7.4 7.0

4.4

(1.0)

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

(%)

2.2

1.5

2.4

3.3 3.3

3.6

4.9

5.2 5.1

4.4 4.3

4.6

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

(%)

40.0

42.0

44.0

46.0

48.0

50.0

52.0

54.0

56.0 M

ar-17

Apr-17

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Mfg. PMI Services PMI

(5.0)

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

May-17

Jun-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Exports yoy growth Imports yoy growth(%)

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6.50

Jul-17

Jul-17

Aug-17

Sep-17

Oct-17

Oct-17

Nov-17

Dec-17

Dec-17

Jan-18

Feb-18

Feb-18

Mar-18

Apr-18

Apr-18

Repo rate Reverse Repo rate CRR (%)

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Global watch

Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research

Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries

Source: IMF, Angel Research

Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries

Source: IMF, Angel Research

0.3

2.5

5.3

6.9

1.1

5.0

5.8

3.7

1.5

2.2

0.8

1.8

1.4

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Bra

zil

Russia

Ind

ia

Ch

ina

South

Africa

Ind

onesia

Ma

laysia

Tha

ilan

d

UK

USA

Germ

any

France

Ja

pa

n

(%)

0.7

1.8

6.7 6.8

0.7

5.2 5.4

3.7

1.7

2.2 2.0

1.6 1.5

-

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Brazil

Russia

India

China

South A

frica

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

UK

USA

Germ

any

France

Japan

(%)

12

.0

5.8

19

.1

11

.9

15

.6

15

.8

15

.4

15

.4

13

.8

16

.0

13

.2

14

.6

13

.8

-

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Brazil

Russia

India

China

South

Africa

Indonesia

Malaysia

Thailand

UK

USA

Germ

any

France

Japan

(x)

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Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe

Returns (%)

Country Name of index Closing price 1M 3M 1YR

Brazil Bovespa 80,122 (6.4) (6.9) 30.1

Russia Micex 4,485 1.4 7.1 11.4

India Nifty 10,514 (0.1) 2.4 13.0

China Shanghai Composite 3,155 2.4 (1.4) 0.9

South Africa Top 40 50,346 (1.0) (2.6) 5.3

Mexico Mexbol 45,433 (6.2) (7.1) (8.2)

Indonesia LQ45 954 (6.7) (14.3) 1.2

Malaysia KLCI 1,776 (5.5) (4.4) (0.0)

Thailand SET 50 1,140 (3.0) (2.3) 17.0

USA Dow Jones 24,812 3.3 (0.6) 17.7

UK FTSE 7,717 4.3 6.5 2.2

Japan Nikkei 22,437 1.1 1.3 13.2

Germany DAX 12,855 3.3 4.0 2.9

France CAC 5,548 2.5 5.2 5.6

Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research As on 25 May, 2018

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Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls

Date Added Top Picks/Fundamental Stocks Reco Price Target/Revised Price Current Status

04-05-2018 Top Picks M&M 860 990 Open

03-05-2018 Fundamental L&T Finance Holding 171 210 Open

02-05-2018 Top Picks HDFC Bank 1944 2315 Open

04-05-2018 Top Picks Matrimony.com Ltd 810 1016 Open

20-04-2018 Top Picks Matrimony.com Ltd 781 984

15-05-2018 Top Picks Parag Milk Foods Limited 310 410 Open

16-04-2018 Top Picks Parag Milk Foods Limited 249 333

14-05-2018 Fundamental GMM Pfaudler Limited 818 900 Open

06-04-2018 Fundamental GMM Pfaudler Limited 712 861

07-03-2018 Fundamental Ashok Leyland Ltd 139 163 Closed (26/04/2018)

03-03-2018 Fundamental Greenply Industries 340 395 Open

16-04-2018 Top Picks Safari Industries 651 750 Open

21-02-2018 Top Picks Safari Industries 532 650

16-02-2018 Top Picks HSIL Ltd 433 510 Open

07-02-2018 Fundamental Elantas Beck India Ltd. 2155 2500 Open

01-02-2018 Top Picks ICICI Bank 352 416 Open

01-02-2018 Top Picks Aditya Birla Capital 167 218 Open

04-01-2018 Fundamental CCL Products 278 360 Open

03-01-2018 Fundamental Nilkamal Ltd 1880 2178 Open

01-01-2018 Fundamental Capital First Ltd 693 850 Closed (15/01/2018)

30-12-2017 Fundamental Shreyans Industries Ltd 205 247 Closed

Fundamental Prism Cement Ltd

160 Closed (09/05/2018)

21-12-2017 Fundamental Prism Cement Ltd 118 131

18-12-2017 Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited 92 114 Closed (17/01/2018)

14-12-2017 Top Picks Ruchira Papers Ltd. 188 244 Closed (09/02/2018)

17-05-2018 Top Picks Century Plyboards India 280

Closed(17/05/2018)

28-11-2017 Top Picks Century Plyboards India 317 400

19-12-2017 Top Picks LT Foods 85 128 Open

06-11-2017 Top Picks LT Foods 74 96

16-10-2017 Fundamental Endurance Technologies Ltd 1111 1277 Closed (01/12/2017)

11-09-2017 Top Picks GIC Housing 533 655 Open

10-10-2017 Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited 404 475 Open

20-07-2017 Top Picks Music Broadcast Limited 368 434

07-07-2017 Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd 149 179 Closed (28/8/2017)

06-07-2017 Fundamental Syngene International 478 564 Closed (1/3/2018)

05-07-2017 Top Picks Maruti 7371 10619 Open

05-06-2017 Top Picks Karur Vysya Bank 127 100 Closed (12/03/2018)

23-05-2018 Top Picks KEI Industries 481 589 Open

04-01-2017 Top Picks KEI Industries 125 485

01-12-2016 Top Picks Alkem Lab 1700 2441 Open

17-10-2016 Top Picks Asian Granito 267 534 Closed (18/02/2018)

17-05-2018 Top Picks TV Today Network 460

Closed (17/05/2018)

04-08-2016 Top Picks TV Today Network 297 603

05-04-2016 Top Picks DHFL 189 720 Open

05-01-2016 Top Picks Navkar Corporation 207 265 Open

08-12-2015 Top Picks Blue Star 357 867 Open

30-10-2015 Top Picks Siyaram Silk Mills 186 851 Open

Source: Company, Angel Research

7

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Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800 E-mail: research@angelbroking.com Website: www.angelbroking.com

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/dealing in securities Market. Angel or its associates/analyst has not received any compensation / managed or co -managed public

offering of securities of the company covered by Analyst during the past twelve months .

This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment

decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document sho uld

make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the

companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to de termine

the merits and risks of such an investment.

Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positio ns and

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