mark barry - a cardiff city region metro - at #cdf2026 08102013

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#CDF2026

Final view of Cardiff’s

LDPCardiff

CivicSociety

CymdeithasDdinesigCaerdydd

1Wednesday, 9 October 13

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#CDF2026

Mark Barry Consultant

Transport for Cardiff


Mark Barry M&G Barry Consulting Ltd

Cardiff Civic Society 8th October 2013 7th October V 1.0

The Metro Consortium

A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect


This document contains company confidential and/or proprietary information. Do not copy, distribute or otherwise communicate the contents of this document without prior written express consent from M&G Barry Consulting Limited. 1 Metro Presentation CONFIDENTIAL - Prepared by M&G Barry Consulting

V1.2 Sep 2013

Since then…. Valley Lines Electrification

GWML Wires to Swansea

City Region Debate

SEWTA Metro+

Metro Discussions

Task Forces

Metro Consortium

Now, new report for Minister….

In 2011…

A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect Background…



V1.2 Sep 2013

A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect The Metro Consortium...

CAPITA SYMONDS



V1.2 Sep 2013

Cardiff/Vale Gwent Valleys

Change in GVA by UK Nation and Region

70

90

110

130

150

170

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

East Midlands

East of England

London

North East

North West

Northern Ireland

Scotland

South East

South West

Wales

West Midlands

Yorkshire and the Humber

GVA /head in Wales lowest in the UK at ~74% of UK average, the valleys <60%

Aggregate figure for Cardiff City Region ~80%

Cardiff falling behind cities across the UK (102& vs >120% in Belfast, Edinburgh, etc)

Also, lowest levels of M&A, listed companies, exports, R&D......

A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect The Economic Challenge...

Wales !

“It’s the economy stupid…..”



V1.2 Sep 2013

The trend: Cardiff Vs Other UK cities, GVA 2001 – 2011 Cardiff lags behind the main regional centres

“It’s the economy stupid…..”



V1.2 Sep 2013

A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect Cardiff City Region, Snapshot – to inform Metro Planning…

Demographics

Employment

Commuting

Development Opportunities



V1.2 Sep 2013

A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect Regional population over 1.4M…

Cardiff rapid population rise >10% since 2001; most dense in region to ~430,000 by 2030 from 348,000 in 2012, only 310,000 in 2001 More modest or zero growth elsewhere in region



V1.2 Sep 2013

A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect Workplace employment…

1/3 of region’s workforce (210,000) work in Cardiff (stats wales)

80% net regional increase since 2001 from 180,000 to 210,000 Small rise, no change or falls elsewhere in region

But…..



V1.2 Sep 2013

More jobs in Cardiff 2011 Vs 2001 But lower GVA/Capita …?

From 110% GVA/capita Vs UK average in 2001 to 102% in 2011



V1.2 Sep 2013

The Future: High Value Job Growth, 2012-2017 Cardiff lags behind the main regional centres

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

Gro

wth

in h

igh

valu

e jo

bs, 2

012-

2017

Source: Jones Lang LaSallle & Oxford Economics, 2013



V1.2 Sep 2013

Increasing levels of commuting to/in Cardiff -Expect 110,000 daily i/w commuters by 2026 Vs 80,000 today -Expect >150,000 within the city today by 2026 Vs 120,000 today

30,000 into Newport….but not to city centre! Commuting flows between all local authorities

A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect Commuting…



V1.2 Sep 2013

A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect Commuting Vs other UK cities/regions…



V1.2 Sep 2013

City Region “Ideopolis”

Good Transport

Connectivity Access to

Capital

High Quality Urban

Environment

Leading University &

Skilled Workforce

Entrepreneurs

Ideas & Opportunities

Diverse, Multicultural, Critical Mass Population

Leadership &

Vision

A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect Ingredients of a successful economy…

The Work Foundation, “Welcome to the Ideopolis” Richard Florida, “Rise of the Creative Classes” EU, “State of European Cities” The Centre for Cities



V1.2 Sep 2013

A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect Metro Phase 1: Valley Lines Electrification by 2020…

“phase 1” of Metro is VLE and CASR TBC…by 2020?



V1.2 Sep 2013

A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect Only ~40% pop within 1.2Km of station post VLE/CASR…

An opportunity for Metro to connect the most densely populated “unconnected” parts of the region

Source: Capita Symonds, Metro Consortium



V1.2 Sep 2013

A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect Road network experiences congestion at key times…

An opportunity for Metro to help address peak time congestion?

Source: SEWTA, ARUP



V1.2 Sep 2013

Metro What is it?

Connect more people, to more places and also to…

Enable Development

Stimulate Regeneration

Deliver Modal Shift



V1.2 Sep 2013

Metro – a catalyst for investment?



V1.2 Sep 2013

Strategic Developments in Cardiff -NW//N/NE Cardiff, St Mellons, Bay, City Centre, etc -150,000 people with no rail access -40,000+ new homes to 2026

Ebbw Vale Enterprise Zone

Regeneration/development in Pontypridd

Newport City Centre

Aggregate new valley housing in fewer higher density locations near Metro stations

A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect Some development opportunities…


Central Cardiff EZ



V1.2 Sep 2013

Merthyr Tydfil – accessible housing?



V1.2 Sep 2013

A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect Focussed economic interventions…

NW Cardiff /Lower RCT & St Mellons

Pontypridd Newport

most accessible location in 1.4M City Region

Best location for access to London/Heathrow

Location for Corporate HQ, Financial Services, etc

Public sector economic interventions and support to focus on locations most likely to engage private sector & create most jobs:

Ebbw Vale Airport Bridgend

Cardiff Enterprise Zone & Bay…



V1.2 Sep 2013

A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect Benefits the whole region…

Connected City Region

Enable a coherent city region plan

Catalyst for development & regeneration

Reverse a long term decline

Modal shift and CO2 reductions

Plan out to 2030

New Metro report now with the Minister for consideration



V1.2 Sep 2013

Some challenges

Vision Ambition Realism Governance Organisation Funding



V1.2 Sep 2013

…not a new idea, from, “South Wales Needs a Plan”, by H A Marquand published by George Allen & Unwin Ltd in 1936!

Seems even more appropriate today…!

“ … a more rapid movement of population up and down the valleys must be encouraged,

so as to save the inhabitants of the northern towns from economic isolation. How that

rapidity of movement can best be secured should be decided by an authority responsible

for a co-ordinated transport service throughout the Region. No such authority exists.

“With rapid transport, it should be no more difficult for workers from Aberdare or Ebbw

Vale to reach Cardiff or Newport than it is for clerks to travel to their daily work in the City

of London from Wimbledon or Ealing”

…” political and social institutions have failed to adopt themselves with sufficient rapidity

to the economic changes that have taken place. One small symptom of this is the

maintenance of local government boundaries which have long lost their significance and

of authorities which are inadequate to the larger tasks which need to be undertaken.”



V1.2 Sep 2013

For further information please contact: Mark Barry T: +44 (0)7771 893292 E: [email protected] W: www.mgbarryconsulting.com Twitter: www.twitter.com/markdafyddbarry

M&G Barry Consulting Ltd Contact Details

Mark Barry was born and grew up in Cardiff. He left in 1981 to study at Manchester University where he graduated in Physics and The Analysis of Science and Technology in 1985 before working in London and overseas in the IT/Software industry. From 1997, Mark spent five years in Management Consultancy working for the PA Consulting Group leading projects for blue chip and government clients in both Europe and North America. In 2003 he founded and was, until 2009, Chief Executive of Cardiff Biotech Company, Q Chip Ltd.

Mark now has his own consultancy business offering services including strategic economic and transport policy development, programme management, business strategy, and fund raising, especially for new technology companies.

Mark is the author of the paper, “A Metro for Wales’ Capital City Region – Connecting Cardiff, Newport and The Valleys” published by the Cardiff Business Partnership and the Institute of Welsh Affairs in February 2011. He also wrote “A Cardiff City Region Metro: transform | regenerate | connect” with The Metro Consortium.

www.metroconsortium.com


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