mark a. ruffalo , marco krapels , mark z. jacobson
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Planning for a Sustainable Future With Wind, Water and the Sun. Mark A. Ruffalo , Marco Krapels , Mark Z. Jacobson. Nantucket Project 2012, Nantucket, Mass., October 7, 2012. What’s the Problem? Why act Quickly?. Air pollution kills 2.5-3 million people worldwide each year. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Mark A. Ruffalo, Marco Krapels, Mark Z. Jacobson
Planning for a Sustainable Future With Wind, Water and the Sun
Nantucket Project 2012, Nantucket, Mass., October 7, 2012
What’s the Problem? Why act Quickly?
Air pollution kills 2.5-3 million people worldwide each year.
Arctic sea ice may disappear in 10-20 years. Global temperatures are rising at a faster rate than any time in history.
Increasing population is increasing pollution, global warming, and energy prices.
Higher energy prices lead to economic, social, political instability
Drastic problems require immediate and definite solutions
ELECTRIC POWER VEHICLES
Recommended – Wind, Water, Sun (WWS)
1. Wind 2. CSP WWS-Battery-Electric3. Geothermal 4. Tidal WWS-Hydrogen Fuel Cell5. PV 6. Wave7. HydroelectricityNot Recommended
Nuclear Corn, cellulosic, sugarcane ethanolCoal-CCS Soy, algae biodieselNatural gas, biomass Compressed natural gas
Cleanest Solutions to Global Warming, Air Pollution, Energy Security
Energy & Env. Sci, 2, 148 (2009)
WORLD U.S.NYS
2010 (TW) 12.5 2.500.094
2030 with current fuels 16.9 2.830.096
2030 converting all energy To wind-water-sun (WWS) and electricty/H2 11.5 1.78
0.060
2030 reduction (%) due to WWS 32 37 37
End Use Power Demand For All Purposes
TECHNOLOGY PCT SUPPLY 2030 NUMBER5-MW onshore wind turbines 10%4020 5-MW offshore wind turbines 40
12,7005-kW Res. roof PV systems 6
5 million100-kW com/gov roof PV systems 12500,00050-MW Solar PV plants 10
828100-MW CSP plants 10
387100-MW geothermal plants 5
361300-MW hydro plants 5.5
6.6 (89% in place)1-MW tidal turbines 1
26000.75-MW wave devices 0.5
1910
100%
Number of Plants or Devices to Power NYS
Area to power 100% of NYS for allpurposeswith WWS
Solar PV+CSP power plants0.85% of NYS
All rooftop PV(0.45% of NYS)
Onshore wind:footprint=0.05 km2
spacing=1.46% of NYS(blue is open space)
Geothermal0.01% of NYS Offshore
wind:spacing= 4.62% of
NYS (blue is open space)
Dvorak et al., 2011
New York StateWind Resources
Hart and Jacobson (2011); www.stanford.edu/~ehart/
Matching Power Demand With Solar, Wind, Geothermal, Hydro
California electricity was found to be obtainable from WWS for 99.8% of all hours in 2005, 2006 without over-sizing WWS capacity, using demand-response, or using much CSP storage.
ENERGY TECHNOLOGY 2008-2010 2020-
2030
Wind onshore 4-7≤4
Wind offshore 10-178-13
Wave >>114-11
Geothermal 4-74-7
Hydroelectric 44
CSP 10-157-8
Solar PV 9-135-7
Tidal >>115-7
Conventional (+Externalities) 7 (+5.3)=12.3 8-9.6(+5.7)=13.7-15.3
Costs of Energy, Including Transmission (¢/kWh)
Jacobson & Delucchi (2011)
Five states with highest percent of electric power from wind +2 ¢/kWh
Remaining 45 states+3.6 ¢/kWh
States with greatest increases in percent of electricity from wind experienced lowest electric power price increases.
Costs Increase of Residential Electric Power 2003-11
http://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/
)
Health Cost Savings due to WWS in NYS
Air pollution kills 4000/year in NYS, costing $33 billion/year, or 3% of NYS GDP
NYS needs ~270 GW ($570 billion) of installed power to convert to WWS for all purposes. Health cost savings alone would pay for WWS in ~17 y
July 15, 2012 by DS Jacobson
New Jobs and Price Stability From WWS in NYS
WWS will generate 71,000 permanent jobs/year for energy facilities alone.
Since >98% WWS will be in NYS but most fossils are from out of state, conversion to WWS increases NYS jobs.
Since WWS fuels are free, their prices do not fluctuate.
Info.ussolarinstitute.com
Converting to WWS and electricity/H2 will reduce NYS power demand
~37%
Eliminate ~4000 air pollution deaths/yr in NYSReduce air pollution cost to NYS by $33 billion/yr (3% of GDP)Reduce global warming cost to NYS by $3.2 billion/yr by 2050Generate 71,000 permanent jobs/yr for energy facilities
alone.
Economic electricity costs of WWS are now lower than those of fossil fuelsRequires only 0.96% more NYS land for footprint; 1.46% for spacingMultiple methods of addressing WWS variability.
www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html
Summary of Plan to Power NYS with WWS