maritime domain awareness: c4i for the 1000 ship navy agnello...

1

Maritime Domain Awareness:

C4I for the 1000 Ship Navy

Agnello M., Astudillo J., Brown J., Jauregui M., and Krikorian B.,

AFCEA SOLUTIONS Series - George Mason University Symposium

“Critical Issues in C4I”

17 May 2010

2

Overview

• Introduction

• Problem Definition

• TSN Tenets

• Operational Domain Analysis

• System Domain Analysis

• Summary

• Q&A

3

Introduction

4

Preface

• Define a Thousand Ship Navy (TSN)-C4I Architecture

– System of systems based

– Define an information exchange standard to enable collaboration within TSN

• Apply structured systems engineering methodology

• Apply a representative set of NPS MSSE tools and techniques

– COREsim

– CADRAT

– Lattix

– Arena

– COCOMO II

– COSYMO

– MS Excel

5

Definition

• Overarching model

– Global Maritime Partnership (GMP) is the enterprise

– TSN-C4I capability is an enabling system of the GMP enterprise

• Title does not indicated size, but an approach

“The 1,000-ship Navy is not a thousand gray hulls flying the American

flag, but rather a voluntarily global maritime network that ties together

the collective capabilities of free nations to establish and maintain a

dramatically increased level of international security in the maritime

domain” (Martoglio and Morgan 2005)

6

Purpose

• GMP-TSN C4I to enable international security:

– Protection of Sea Lines of Communication (SLOC) fostering global

economic stability

– Humanitarian aid to peoples persecuted, exploited, and exposed to

disasters to foster political and social stability

• GMP relies on international maritime cooperation

• GMP sanctioned by U.S. National Security Council in 2008 as

an interagency strategy (Swartz and Duggan 2008)

7

History & Background

• Over millennia a large naval force has been the historical

measure of maritime dominance

– Persians employed 1000 ships to subdue the Greeks

– Greek states raised 1000 ships to sack Troy

– Greek states form the Delian League, providing commercial success for

the eastern Mediterranean

– Pax Romana subsumes and dominates the Greeks, providing prosperity

for the entire Mediterranean

8

Modern Era

• 1800-Present day involve vast improvements in technology and allow maritime dominance with far fewer ships

– U.K. employs 950 ships to achieve Pax Britanica, accounting for 2/3 of Europe's industrial growth

– Open Alliance provides mutual security among geopolitical allies

– NATO provides multi-national security for Atlantic Ocean region

• GMP- TSN to “watch over all the seas” (Sakhuja 2007)

9

Problem Definition

10

Threats

• Transnational

– Piracy, human trafficking, smuggling, etc.

– $150 million in ransoms (2008)

• Disasters requiring humanitarian aid

– Catastrophic storms, loss of arable lands, coastal flooding, etc.

– Cyclone Nargis negatively affected 2.4 million (2007)

• Environmental

– Dumping, oil spills, contamination, emissions…

– Exxon Valdez (1994)

– Gulf of Mexico (2010)

11

Existing Architecture Gaps

• U.S. Maritime Domain Awareness

– Lacks international participation

– U.S. centric

• FORCENet

– Naval Forces only

– Does not address humanitarian aid coordination

• CENTRIXS

– Classified datasets

– Limited to U.S. and its allies

• Caspian Guard

– Regional solution

– Politically constrained

12

Defining Statements

• Transnational Criminal Threat: “Modern-day pirates and other criminals [who] are well organized and equipped, often possessing advanced communications, weapons, and high speed craft to conduct smuggling of people, drugs, weapons, and other contraband [e.g. counterfeiting, illegal fishing, etc.], as well as piracy.” (DON CIO 2009)

• Humanitarian assistance: “conflict, disaster, and displacement from physical harm, persecution, exploitation, abuse, malnutrition and disease, family separation, gender-based violence, forcible recruitment, and other threats [to humanity]”. (U.S. Department of State. 2007)

13

TSN Tenets

14

Tenets and Impact

• Former CNO Admiral Mullen (U.S. Department of State 2005)

– U.S. Naval operations to have a broader range of maritime missions

– Promote global economic stability

– Collaborative effort between agencies, nations, and the private sector

• Mutual Interest

– Navies affect the global

economy

• Tenets form:

– International

cooperation

– Employ common

transparent methods

– Politically agnostic

voluntary participation

Impacts of Naval

Forward Presence

Foreign Exchange

Markets

Share Markets

Commodity

Markets

Oil Markets

Short Run Stock

Foreign Exchange

Markets

Share Markets

Commodity

Markets

Oil Markets

Longer-run

Adjustment

Increased

Effciency

Higher Rates of

Growth

Higher Rates of

Investment

Lower Inflation

Benefits for US

Economy

Increased

Importance of

Private Capital

Flows and FDI

Advances

Telecommunciations

and Transport

Integration of

World Capital

Markets

Increased Trade

Globalization

Components

Changes in Labor

Movement

Lowers price

Lowers price

raises index

strengthens

dollar

stabilizes

lower index

stable dollar

increase of

value

15

Operational Domain Analysis

16

Overview

Process Method Tool

Requirements Analysis Dendritic Decomposition ©Microsoft Visio

Functional Analysis Structure Analysis and Design ©ViTech COREsim®

Analysis of AlternativesAoA ©Microsoft Excel

Discrete Event Simulation Rockwell International Arena

Cost AnalysisCOCOMO II ©Softstar Systems Costar™ 7.0

COSYSMO NPS Web Site

17

Intelligence Functions

• Aligns with Network Centric Operations’ (NCO) communication service

orientated paradigm

• Each member is both a provider and consumer of information

C2 Functions

18

• Based upon Lawson’s model

Perform

Command and

Control

Sensor

Environment

Assess

Intentions and

Capabilities

Select

Alternatives

Plan Details

Detect Object and Conditions

Classify Object and Conditions

Identify Objects and Conditions

Develop Deviation Corrections

Develop Alternatives

Identify Criteria

Optimize Alternatives

Generate COAs

Transform Information

Evaluate Capabilities

Evaluate Intentions

Identify Resources

Predict Probability of Success

Generate Commands

Inform Community

Issue Commands

Direct

Response

Track Objects and Conditions

Evaluate Deviation

Evaluate Options

Develop Implementation

Prepare for Operations

Stakeholder organization

19

International

Signatory

Organizations

Private Vessels

Commercial

Vessels

Constabulary

Forces

Humanitarian

Aid

Organizations

Naval Forces

Evaluation Factor Weight

Political Feasibility 0.3

Arena Resource Duration 0.2

Arena Resource Usage 0.1

Number of Relationships 0.1

Number of New Capabilities 0.1

Use of Legacy 0.2

Sum 1

TSN Score Weighting

• Committee model offers best resource efficiency

− Promotes widespread stakeholder involvement

− Other models considered: Group, Team; Marakas (2003)

20

Arena Process Threads

Response

Request

Event

Background

Sense

Environment

Assess

Intentions and

Capabilities

Generate

COAs

Select

AlternativesPlan Details

Direct

Response

Task Data

CollectionProcess Data

Post

Intelligence

Products

Use

Intelligence

Update

Background

Additional

Intelligence

Required?

No

Yes

Situational

Awareness

Updates

Sense

EnvironmentProcess Data

Post

Intelligence

Products

Use

Intelligence

Products

Situational

Awareness

Updated

Intelligence

Posting

Task Data

CollectionProcess Data

Post

Intelligence

Products

Use

Intelligence

Products

Intelligence

Posted

Response

Situational Awareness

Intelligence

21

OV-1

22

Operational Node Diagram

23

System Domain Analysis

Overview

24

Process Method Tool

Functional Grouping Analysis

Interpretive Structural

ModelingProfessor Hitchin’s ©CADRAT

Design Structure Matrix

AnalysisLattix Software, Lattix

Cost AnalysisCOCOMO II ©Softstar Systems Costar™ 7.0

COSYSMO NPS Web Site

25

COREsim® FFBD’s

Provide Intelligence

Provide Command and Control

Operate Unit

26

COREsim® FFBD’s

Transnational Threat Operational Scenario

27

System to Operational Matrix

Ass

ess

Inte

nti

on

s an

d

Dir

ect

Res

po

nse

Gen

erat

e C

OA

s

Pla

n D

etai

ls

Sel

ect

Alt

ern

ativ

es

Sen

se E

nv

iro

nm

ent

Po

st I

nte

llig

ence

Pro

du

cts

Pro

cess

Dat

a

Tas

k D

ata

Co

llec

tio

n

Use

In

tell

igen

ce P

rod

uct

s

Ale

rt L

and

No

de

Ale

rt T

SN

No

de

Co

ord

inat

e U

nit

Op

erat

ion

s

Per

form

Un

it A

ctio

n

Pro

cess

Un

it I

nfo

rmat

ion

Pro

vid

e E

nv

iro

nm

enta

l A

lert

Pro

vid

e U

nit

Sen

sed

Co

nta

cts

Manage

Communications

and Networking

X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X

Develop Situation

AwarenessX X X X X X X X X X X

Develop Object of

Interest Tracks X X

Obtain Intelligence

Products X X X X X X X

Develop and

Evaluate Plans X X X X X X X

Coordinate and

Monitor

Operations

X X X

Generate After

Action Evaluation X

Operational Functions

System Functions

28

System Functional Hierarchy

• Level 1 and 2 system functions

• Ordered intuitively from left to right culminating in full TSN

C4I functionality

29

A-1 System Context Diagram

30

Assessment using DSM

• Operational DSM with a score of 72 percent substantiates ISM with score of 1.8

• System DSM with a score of 80 percent substantiates ISM with score of 1.5

Exte

rnal E

ntity

Node

Task D

ata

Colle

ctio

n

Pro

cess D

ata

Post In

tellig

ence P

roducts

Use In

tellig

ence P

roducts

Sense E

nviro

nm

ent

Assess In

tentio

ns a

nd C

apabilitie

s

Genera

te C

OA

s

Sele

ct A

ltern

ativ

es

Pla

n D

eta

ils

Dire

ct R

esponse

Unit N

ode

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

11

12

1 1 1 1 1

2 3 1

3 1 2 1 1 1 1

4 1 2

5 2 1 1 2

6 3 1 1 5 1

7 1 2 3

8 1 2

9 1 1 6

10 5 3

11 1 3

12 1 1 1Unit Node

C2 N

ode

Sense Environment

Assess Intentions and Capabilities

Generate COAs

Select Alternatives

Plan Details

Direct Response

$root

External Entity Node

Inte

ll Node

Task Data Collection

Process Data

Post Intelligence Products

Use Intelligence Products

Exte

rnal

Asset M

anagem

ent C

SC

I

Situ

atio

n A

ware

ness C

SC

I

Fusio

n C

SC

I

Inte

lligence C

SC

I

Mis

sio

n P

lannin

g C

SC

I

Mis

sio

n O

pera

tions C

SC

I

Mis

sio

n A

naly

sis

CS

CI

Info

rmatio

n R

ele

ase C

SC

I

Com

munic

atio

ns a

nd N

etw

ork

Managem

ent S

erv

ice

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

10

1 1 1 3 5

2 1 1 2

3 3 1 7

4 3 # 4

5 3 1 2

6 3 1 5 # 1 5

7 1 1 4

8 1 1 1 4

9 6

10 3

Mission Analysis CSCI

Information Release CSCI

Communications and Netw ork Management Service

Fusion CSCI

Intelligence CSCI

Mission Planning CSCI

Mission Operations CSCI

$root

External

Asset Management CSCI

Situation Aw areness CSCI

Operational Architecture

System Architecture

31

Requirements and CTP’s

• Example Requirements– • The TSN C4I system hardware must scale effectively with respect to

size, weight, and power variable for use on large (GWT > 300 tons) or small vessels (GWT > 1 ton) (objective).

– • The TSN C4I system operational availability must be 0.99 (threshold).

– • The TSN C4I system must support 24/7 continuous operations.

– • The TSN C4I system should operate in all climate zones.

Categories Parameters Values

Message Response Situation Awareness Update 30 minutes

Data Exchange Latency 5 minutes

Positional Accuracy Spatial Mean Error 3 meters

Language Translation Latency < 10 seconds

Accuracy < one error per 100 words

Language Types English, French, Spanish,

Japanese, Chinese, German

Reliability MTBF >500 hours

MTTR < 1 hour

Continuity of Operations Recovery Time Objective < 8 hours

Recovery Point Objective < 8 hours

32

Information Exchange

• 15 unique TSN network elements identified

• Each network element is further decomposed into specific data

elements patterned after AIS & LRIT standards

• System elements are derived from the COREsim® model

Element Nomenclature Element Nomenclature

TSN-001 Static Vessel Element TSN-009 International Objectives Element

TSN-002 Dynamic Vessel Element TSN-010 Common Operating Picture Element

TSN-003 Event and Request Element TSN-011 Communications Link Element

TSN-004 Planning Element TSN-012 Network Management Element

TSN-005 Asset Reporting Element TSN-013 Tracking Element

TSN-006 Open-Source Element TSN-014 Personal Identification Element

TSN-007 Object Information Element TSN-015 Logistics Request Element

TSN-008 Intelligence Report Element

33

Information Exchange

• COREsim® derived unique information and hardware configuration elements required for TSN

• Items are architected as severable efforts for integrator development

• Each element is further decomposed into specific elements

CSCI Nomenclature

SW-001 Distributed Communications and Networking Management CSCI

SW-002 Distributed Situational Awareness Development CSCI

SW-003 Information Fusion CSCI

SW-004 Distributed Intelligence Product Acquisition CSCI

SW-005 Distributed Mission Analysis CSCI

SW-006 Distributed Mission Operations CSCI

SW-007 Distributed Mission Planning CSCI

SW-008 Asset Management CSCI

SW-009 Distributed After Action Report Generation CSCI

HWCI Nomenclature

HW-001 External Communications HWCI

HW-002 Networking HWCI

34

SE Cost Model Drivers

Application Cost Drivers

Team Cost Drivers

Size Drivers

• Cost basis– $60/hour labor rate

– 152 hour work-month

• Effort estimate (C.L. 50%)– 448 labor-months

– $4.09M

35

SW Cost Model Drivers

Scale Drivers

Score Value

Very Low 1

Low 2

Nominal 3

High 4

Very High 5

Extremely High 6

Early Design Factors

Early Design

Effort Multiplier

Post-Architecture Effort

Multiplier

Post-Architecture

Score

Early Design

Score

Reliability (RELY) Very High 5

Database size (DATA) High 4

Complexity (CPLX) Very High 5

Product

Reliability and

Complexity (RCPX) Documentation (DOCU) Nominal 3

5 Very

High

Required

Reusability

(RUSE)

Reusability (RUSE) Very High 5 5 Very

High

Time constraint (TIME) Nominal 3

Storage constraint (STOR) Nominal 3 Platform

Difficulty (PDIF) Platform volatility (PVOL) Nominal 3

3 Nominal

Analyst capability (ACAP) Nominal 3

Programmer capability (PCAP) Nominal 3

Personnel

Capability

(PERS) Personnel continuity (PCON) Nominal 3

3 Nominal

Analyst experience (AEXP) Nominal 3

Programmer experience (PEXP) Nominal 3 Personnel

Experience

(PREX) Language experience (LTEX) Nominal 3

3 Nominal

Software tool usage (TOOL) Nominal 3 Facilities (FCIL)

Multisite development (SITE) Very High 5 4 High

Development

Schedule (SCED) Development schedule (SCED) Nominal 3 3 Nominal

• Cost basis– $60/hour labor rate

– 152 hour work-month

• Effort estimate (C.L. 80%)– 612.5 labor-months

– $5.59M

36

Summary/Future Work

37

Concept and Problem

• The Global Maritime Partnership (GMP) enterprise objective is to pursue an international consensus of cooperating national navies to stabilize global maritime operations, a concept referred to as the Thousand Ship Navy (TSN)

• There exists a lack of a C4I system that enables a TSN to coordinate response to transnational threats, events compelling humanitarian assistance, and environment governance

• TSN shifts the historical military coalition to an inclusive participatory and voluntary maritime alliance with a global economy focus

38

Approach

• Develop a TSN C4I operational architecture, system

architecture, and corroborating analysis

• Information exchange standard to support TSN

• Analysis of Alternatives (AoA) supported by Arena’s Discrete

Event Simulation (DES)

• The analysis considered team, group and committee

organizational models for TSN

• Functional analysis methods transformed operational functions

into system functions that enabled the determination of

structure, process flow, inputs and outputs in the system domain

39

Future Work

• This study architected and cost estimated the follow-on design

• Effort serves as the basis for

– Establishing a full set of stakeholder capabilities

– Sub-system level hardware and software block diagrams

– Information exchange data structure

– Performance analysis

– HW and SW CI platform cost

– Suitability Analysis

– Life cycle cost

40

References

41

References (1of 2)

• Martoglio, C. W., RADM USN, and Morgan J. G., ADM USN. 2005. “The 1000-Ship Navy: Global Maritime Network”, United States Naval Proceedings 131 11: 14-18.

• Swartz, Peter. M., Duggan K. 2008. “U.S. Navy Capstone Strategies Visions & Concepts (1970 – 2009)”, downloaded 11 April 2009 from http://www.cna.org/documents/D0019819.A1.pdf.

• Sakhuja, V. 2007. “Any Asian takers for a 1000 Ship Navy”, downloaded 20 June 2009 from http://www.opinionasia.org.

• U.S. Department of State. 2005. “International Outreach and Coordination Strategy for the National Strategy for Maritime Security” downloaded 12 July 2009 from http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/HSPD_IOCPlan.pdf.

• U.S. Department of Navy, Chief Information Officer (DON CIO). 2009. “Maritime Domain Awareness Architecture Management Hub Plan”, downloaded 10 April 2009 from http://www.doncio.navy.mil/Download.aspx?AttachID=876.

42

References (2of 2)

• U.S. Department of State. 2007. “Strategic Plan Fiscal Year 2007-2012”,

downloaded 24 April 2009

http://www.state.gov/documents/organization/86291.pdf.

• Keegan, J. G., Kelliher, T. P., and Oliver, D.W. 1997. Engineering

Complex Systems with Models and Objects, New York, New York:

McGraw-Hill.

• Marakas, George M. 2003. Decision Support Systems, Upper Saddle River,

New Jersey: Prentice Hall.

• Bayne J. PhD, and Paul R. PhD. 2005. “Scale-free Enterprise Command

and Control Unified Command Structures”, Technical Report for 10th

International Command and Control Research and Technology

Symposium, Echelon 4 Corporation, Thiensville, Wisconsin.

• Hwang J., Schutzer D., Shere K., Vena P., eds. 1982. Selected Analytical

Concepts in Command and Control, New York, Gordon and Breach

Science Publishers.

43

Back-up

44

Political Feasibility

Value Sum

1,1,1 3

2,1,1 4

2,2,1 5

2,2,2 6

3,2,3 8

3,3,3 9High value added, High sense of fair play, High advocacy

Dimension ranking


Score

10

20

40

60

80

Medium value added, Low sense of fair play, Low advocacy

Medium value added, Medium sense of fair play, Low advocacy

Medium value added, Medium sense of fair play, Medium advocacy

High value added, Medium sense of fair play, High advocacy

Low value added, Low sense of fair play, Low advocacy

90

Political Feasibility Score

y = -1.6667x3 + 17.5x2 - 35.119x + 30

0

20

40

60

80

100

3 4 5 6 8 9

Sum Weight

Scale

d S

co

re

45

Stakeholders

• First order categorical representation of the TSN community

• TSN relies heavily on International Signatories

46

Dendritic Model

• Parent-child data structure

• Decomposition flows from left to right

• Organizes functions into different levels of abstraction

Parent Function A

Child Function A1

Child Function A2

Child Function A3

Child Function A4

Parent Function B

Child Function B1

Child Function B2

Child Function B3

Child Function B4

Parent Function C

Child Function C1

Child Function C2

Child Function C3

Child Function C4

47

Functional Modeling

• Level of structure abstraction includes classification,

interconnection, and aggregation (Keegan et al. 1997)

• Establishes the relationship framework between the classes of

model entities

48

DoDAF

• DoDAF models in CORESim® subscribe to version 1.5

• Seven Operational Views (OV-1* through OV-7)

• Ten System Views (SV-1 through SV-10)

• One Technical View (TV-1)

Mi li tary Un it Send Coordination

Inte l li gence Receive Safety /Distress Summ ary

Constabulary Uni t Send Inte ll ig ...

Maritim e Comm ercia l Send Tracks

Inte l li gence Receive LRIT Inform ation

Se

a P

OE

Re

ceiv

e G

MS

A

Mi li tary Un it Send Inte l li gence

Hum anitarian Unit Re ceive GMS A

Constabulary Uni t Receive GMSA

Mi li tary Un it Send Movem ent

Constabulary Uni t Send Tracks

Ma

riti

me

Pri

va

te P

rov

ide

Ex

plo

ita

ble

Fe

atu

res

TSN Receive Inte ll ige nce Inform ation

Maritim e Comm ercia l Receive P RC Inform ation

Maritim e Comm ercia l Receive P NT

TSN Receive Poli cy In formation

Hum anitarian Request

Maritim e P ri vate Send Tracks

Maritim e Comm ercia l Send Mov ement

TSN Receive Law Enforcem ent Informatio n

PRC Receive GMSA

Maritim e P ri vate Send Env ironm ent Alert

Constabulary Uni t Receive Inte l li ge...

Maritim e Comm ercia l Prov ide E xploitable Features

TSN Send Inte ll igence Inform ation

Com mercia l Enterprise Receive GMSA

Mi li tary Un it Send Env i ronm ent Alert

Maritim e Comm ercia l Send Own ship Inform ation

Inte l li gence Receive Securi ty Alert Sum m ary

Hum anitarian Unit Prov ide Exploitable Features

Hum anitarian Unit Re ceive PNT

Maritim e P ri vate Rece ive GMSA

Mi li tary Un it Receive PRC Inform ation

Constabulary Uni t Send Env ironm ent Ale rt

Sea POE Receive Env ironment Inform ation

Inte l li gence Receive Env i ronm ent Inform ation

Maritim e Comm ercia l Send Security Alert

Constabulary Uni t Pro v ide Exploi table Fe atures

Constabulary Uni t Send Coordinat...

Constabulary Uni t Receive PRC Inform ation

Inte l li gence Receive AIS Inform ation

Constabulary Uni t Receive USCG Message

Maritim e P ri vate Rece ive PNT

Mi li tary Un it Receive GMSA

NGO Receive GMSA

Constabulary Uni t Send Safety /Distress Alert

NCA Receive GMSA

Mi li tary Un it Send Tra cks

TSN Send Tracks

Mi li tary Un it Prov ide Exploi table...

Mi li tary Un it Receive PNT

Constabulary Uni t Send Movem ent

Maritim e Comm ercia l Send Safety & Distress Alert

TSN Send Constabula ry Unit COA

Maritim e Comm ercia l Send Env ironment Alert

Hum anitarian Unit Se nd Tracks

Mi li tary Un it Receive Inte l li gence

TSN Receive PNT

Maritim e P ri vate Send Safety & Di stress Alert

Constabulary Uni t Receive PNT

Maritim e Comm ercia l Receive GMSA

1.1

C2.TSN

Node

1.2

Port.Sea

Node

1.3

Uni t.Constabulary

Node

1.4

Uni t.Huma nitari an

Node

1.5

Uni t.Mari tim eCom mercia l

Node

1.6

Uni t.Mari tim e Private

Node

1.7

Uni t.Mil itary

Node

1.8

Cel l.Inte ll i gence

Node

EXT.1

External Nodes

External

Date:Saturday , August 01, 2009

Author:Adm ini stra tor

Num ber:1

Nam e:TSN

* OV-1 developed in ©Microsoft Visio

49

Use of Patterns

• Shows the relationships between operational domain and system domain

• Operational patterns represent recurring approaches for conducting activities, operational functions, in a given mission context

50

Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM)

• Graphs allow the architect/designer to visualize the

relationships between functions and components

• ISM analysis uses “strength of association” to represent the

relative importance of one relationship to another

51

Design Structure Matrix (DSM)

• DSM analysis provides an objective score of the operational and system stability based upon the results of functional analysis and interface development

• Provides insight of series, parallel, and coupled patterns that visually represent feedback patterns

52

Organizational Alternatives

• Determine which organizational model is best suited for the operational concept of TSN C4I

• Three generalized, multi-stakeholder organizational models are selected from a paper by Marakas (2003)

International Signatory

Organizations

Humanitarian Aid

Organizations

Commercial Vessels

Private Vessels

Naval Forces

Constabulary Forces

Constabulary

Forces

Naval Forces

Private Vessels

Commercial

Vessels

Humanitarian Aid

OrganizationsInternational Signatory

Organizations

Constabulary

Forces

Naval Forces

Private Vessels

Commercial

Vessels

Humanitarian Aid

OrganizationsInternational Signatory

Organizations

Team Organization

Group Organization

Committee Organization

53

Characterization and Scoring

C4I Functions vs. Stakeholders

Co

nsta

bu

lary

Fo

rces

FB

I/In

terp

ol

Board

er

Patr

ol/C

usto

ms

Port

Polic

e

Coast G

uard

Navie

s

Surf

ace C

om

bata

nts

Aircra

ft C

arr

iers

Patr

ol C

om

bata

nts

Mobile

Logis

tics

Coasta

l D

efe

nse

Pri

vate

Vessels

Ple

asure

Researc

h

Passenger

Private

Fis

hin

g

Co

mm

erc

ial S

hip

pin

g In

du

str

y

Oil

Food

Raw

Mate

rials

Consum

er

Pro

ducts

Fis

hin

g Industr

y

Hu

man

itari

an

Aid

Org

an

izati

on

s

Inte

rnational R

ed C

ross

World F

ood P

rogra

m

Peace C

orp

s

Docto

rs W

ithout B

oard

ers

Inte

rnati

on

al O

rgan

izati

on

s

United N

ations

Inte

rnational M

aritim

e O

rganiz

ations

NA

TO

Perform Command and Control

Sense Environment

Assess Intentions and Capabilities

Generate COA's

Select Alternatives

Plan Details

Direct Response

Produce Intelligence

Task Data Collection

Process Data

Post Intelligence Products

Use Intelligence Products

Provide Communications

Transmit Information

Receive Information

Involved Legacy

Involved New

Not Involved O

N

L 0

0

0

Evaluation Factors Group Alternative Score Weight Score Team Alternative Score Weight Score Committee Alternative Score Weight Score


Arena Mission Duration

Arena Resource Usage

Number of Relationships

Number of New Capabilities

Use of Legacy

Score



Arena Resource Duration




Use of Legacy

Score



Arena Resource Duration




Use of Legacy

Score

Average

Disaster Relief/Protect Environment

Humanitarian Aid

Transnational Threat

• Organizational matrix identifies

– Preferred TSN organizational approach

– Based on highest aggregate score

• Stakeholder matrix identifies– Relationships between

stakeholders and functions

– New capabilities required by each stakeholder

54

Arena Simulation

• Based on 3 system process threads

– Conduct response

– Perform SA

– Gather intelligence

• Exponential arrival threat generation

• Triangle distribution modeling for each task in accordance with its organizational model

Integrate

Min Max

Mode

Resultant Team Distribution

Time (Parallel)

Min Max

Mode

Hub

Stakeholder

Min Max

Mode

Typical Distribution Time

Spoke

Stakeholder

Integrate

Min Max

Mode

Resultant Group Distribution

Time (Parallel)

Min Max

Mode

1 2 3 4 5

Results from increasing

Group Members

Min Max

Mode

Spoke #1

Min Max

Mode

Typical Distribution Time

Spoke N

. . .

Where N is 1 to 5

Min/N Max/N

Mode/N

From Group Distribution

New Min New Max

New Mode

Committee Distribution TimeMin/N x (1+ N x 0.1) Max/N x (1 + N x 0.1)

Mode/N x (1 + N x 0.1)

Spoke

Stakeholders Hub

Stakeholder

Team Organization

Group Organization

Committee Organization

55

Mission Success

• Measures preferred architectures mission success probability,

calculated from the likelihood of achieving mission objectives

• Established MOP’s per functional modeling architecture

output for COREsim®

• Oriented MOP’s in series and parallel combinations to

establish several mission scenarios

INPUT OUTPUT A B C

Series Network

Committee Network

56

Cost Modeling

• Used to estimate the developmental cost for TSN

• Software and systems engineering models used

– COCOMO II (software)

– COSYSMO (systems engineering)

14

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57

TNT Mission Success

Mission

Function

(leve l three)

O perational Function Calculated

MO E (%)

Serial Sub-

Functions

(leve l four)

Serial MO P

(%) Total

Paralle l Sub-

Functions

(leve l four)

Paralle l MO P

(%) Total

1.1.4 Use Intelligence Products 0.977 1.1.4.1 0.977 1.1.4.2.1,

1.1.4.2.2

0.999

1.2.2 Assess Intentions and Capabilit ies 0.912 1.2.2.1,

1.2.2.2,

1.2.2.3,

1.2.2.4

0.912 n/a n/a

1.2.3 Generate COAs 0.955 1.2.3.1,

1.2.3.2

0.955 n/a n/a

1.2.4 Select Alternatives 0.933 1.2.4.1,

1.2.4.2,

1.2.4.3-7

0.933 n/a n/a

1.2.5 Plan Details 0.933 1.2.5.1-5,

1.2.5.1,

1.2.5.3

0.933 n/a n/a

1.2.6 Direct Response 0.912 1.2.6.1,

1.2.6.2,

1.2.6.3,

1.2.6.4

0.912 n/a n/a

1.3.4 Perform Unit Action 0.977 n/a n/a n/a n/a

1.3.6 Coordinate Unit Operations 0.977 n/a n/a n/a n/a

1.3.7 Process Unit Information 0.977 n/a n/a n/a n/a

0.630Transnational Threat Enforcement Mission

Success

58

Arena Distribution Baselines

Response Functions Delay Type Minimum Mode Maximum (Units)

Sense Environment Triangular 10.00 15.00 30.00 Minutes

Assess Intentions and Capabilities Triangular 1.00 2.00 4.00 Hours

Generate COAs Triangular 5.00 15.00 30.00 Minutes

Select Alternatives Triangular 0.75 1.00 1.50 Hours

Plan Details Triangular 8.00 12.00 24.00 Hours

Direct Response Triangular 1.00 2.00 3.00 Hours

Intelligence Functions

Task Data Collections Triangular 15.00 30.00 60.00 Minutes

Process Data Triangular 15.00 30.00 60.00 Minutes

Post Intelligence Products Triangular 5.00 15.00 20.00 Minutes

Use Intelligence Products Triangular 1.00 2.00 2.50 Minutes

Situational Awareness Functions

Sense Environment Triangular 6.00 8.00 10.00 Minutes

Process Data Triangular 0.33 0.83 1.00 Minutes

Post Intelligence Products Triangular 0.33 1.00 1.00 Minutes

Use Intelligence Products Triangular 0.50 0.75 2.00 Minutes

Event Mission Model Average Arrival

Time (hours)

Parameter

Lamda (λ)

Transnational Threat Transnational Threat

Enforcement

60 0.0167

Disaster Relief see below 106 0.0094

Protect Environment (oil

spills)

see below 2380 0.0004

Combined Disaster Relief/

Protect Environment

Disaster Relief/Protect

Environment Response

101 0.0099

Humanitarian Aid Humanitarian Aid 98 0.0102

59

Arena Resource and Time Outputs

Constabulary

Resource

Usage (percent)

National

Navies

Resource

Usage

(percent)

Private

Resource

Usage

(percent)

Commercial

Resource

Usage

(percent)

Humanitarian

O rganization

Resource Usage

(percent)

International

Resource

Usage

(percent)

Average

Resource

Usage

(percent)

Mission

Duration

Time

(hours)

Team Transnational Threat

16.400 29.100 0.000 0.000 3.400 3.000 8.65 26.17

Team Humanitarian Aid

23.500 50.300 0.000 0.000 6.700 4.500 14.17 21.90

Team Disaster Relief /

Protect Environment 11.000 18.800 0.000 0.000 3.600 5.600 6.50 22.70

Committee Transnational

Threat 8.900 4.600 3.800 4.500 3.900 21.700 7.90 26.32

Committee Humanitarian

Aid 6.700 3.500 3.800 4.400 3.900 6.200 4.75 20.84

Committee Disaster Relief

/ Protect Environment 6.800 3.700 3.800 4.500 4.100 9.000 5.32 21.48

Group Transnational

Threat 15.200 15.100 10.900 13.100 1.400 13.100 11.47 27.83

Group Humanitarian Aid

11.300 12.100 10.400 12.400 3.100 10.500 9.97 26.24

Group Disaster Relief /

Protect Environment 9.300 9.900 10.100 12.000 1.900 8.600 8.63 26.08

60

AoA Scoring Matrix

Evaluation Factors Group

Alternative

Value

Score Weight Score Team

Alternative

Value

Score Weight Score Committee

Alternative

Value

Score Weight Score

Political Feasibility 60.00 60.00 18.00 20.00 20.00 6.00 60.00 60.00 18.00

Arena Mission Duration 27.83 74.88 14.98 25.84 80.65 16.13 26.32 79.18 15.84

Arena Resource Usage 11.47 41.33 4.13 9.70 48.88 4.89 7.91 59.96 6.00

Number of Relationships 15.00 33.33 3.33 5.00 100.00 10.00 15.00 33.33 3.33

Number of New Capabilities 50.00 2.00 0.20 1.00 100.00 10.00 27.00 3.70 0.37

Use of Legacy 154.00 96.86 19.37 75.00 47.17 9.43 110.00 69.18 13.84

Score


Alternative

Value


Alternative

Value


Alternative

Value

Score Weight Score


Arena Resource Duration 26.24 79.42 15.88 25.94 80.34 16.07 20.84 100.00 20.00




Use of Legacy 159.00 100.00 20.00 53.00 33.33 6.67 110.00 69.18 13.84

Score


Alternative

Value


Alternative

Value


Alternative

Value

Score Weight Score


Arena Resource Duration 26.08 79.91 15.98 25.95 80.31 16.06 21.48 97.02 19.40




Use of Legacy 150.00 94.34 18.87 44.00 27.67 5.53 104.00 65.41 13.08

Sub-Total

Average

11.31 8.43 12.00

Humanitarian Aid

10.89 8.78 11.16

11.36 8.50 11.90

Disaster Relief/Protect Environment

9.5610.00 9.41

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