march 2016 greater boston real estate market trends report

March 2016 Quick Facts

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City of Boston OverviewRegional Map

Median Sales PriceHousing Affordability IndexInventory of Homes for SaleMonths Supply of InventoryDays on Market Until SalePercent of Original List Price Received

Monthly Indicators

Negative housing headlines should be read with calm or skepticism, not alarm. National housing trends, like the steady rise in home prices and decline in inventory, should certainly be observed with care, but tracking wider economic conditions is also necessary. Buyers want to get into the market, but unlike the rising-price sales environment of ten years ago, people are not diving headlong into risky mortgages or uncomfortable situations. This carefulness should be celebrated, not feared.

Closed Sales increased 12.5 percent for Single-Family homes and 30.0 percent for Condominium homes. Pending Sales increased 35.9 percent for Single-Family homes and 18.0 percent for Condominium homes. Inventory increased 14.8 percent for Single-Family homes and 5.6 percent for Condominium homes.

The Median Sales Price was up 0.6 percent to $472,000 for Single-Family homes and 5.5 percent to $480,000 for Condominium homes. Days on Market decreased 13.0 percent for Single-Family homes and 9.1 percent for Condominium homes. Months Supply of Inventory increased 4.8 percent for Single-Family homes but remained flat for Condominium homes.

Employment figures are positive, wages are going up and employers are hiring. Consumers are holding for the right deal, even in the face of extremely low mortgage rates. As seller and builder confidence increases, we should see more activity in Q2 2016. The second quarter tends to rank as the best time to list a home for sale. But if inventory stays low, it will be difficult to sustain sales increases in year-over-year comparisons. Prices are seemingly not so high as to stall the market completely. Demand is present but an abundance of choice is not, and therein lies the rub.

Data is refreshed regularly to capture changes in market activity so figures shown may be different than previously reported. Current as of April 18, 2016. All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2016 ShowingTime 10K.

Single-Family Home Market Overview

+ 20.5% + 12.5% + 30.0%

This is a research tool provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS®. Percent changes are calculated using rounded figures.

Condominium Market Overview

Year-Over-Year (YoY) Change in Closed Sales

All Properties


Single-Family Only


Condominium Only

Closed Sales

Pending SalesNew Listings

Single-Family Home Market Overview

Historical Sparkbars 3-2015 3-2016 PercentChange YTD 2015 YTD 2016 Percent

Change

+ 41.0%1,506 2,196 + 45.8% 2,998 4,228

Current as of April 18, 2016. All data from MLS Property Information Network, Inc. Provided by the Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® and the Massachusetts Association of REALTORS®. Report © 2016 ShowingTime 10K. | 2

+ 0.5%

Pending Sales 1,118 1,519 + 35.9% 2,467 3,134 + 27.0%

Pct. of Orig. List Price Received 96.5% 97.6% + 1.1% 95.9% 96.4%

New Listings

--

Days on Market Until Sale 92 80 - 13.0% 90 80 - 11.1%

Months Supply of Inventory 2.1 2.2 + 4.8% -- --

- 4.4%

Inventory of Homes for Sale 2,280 2,618 + 14.8% -- -- --

Housing Affordability Index 92 90 - 2.2% 90 86

2,208 + 13.9%

Median Sales Price $469,000 $472,000 + 0.6% $475,000 $490,000 + 3.2%

1,938

Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Single-Family Homes Only.

Closed Sales 687 773 + 12.5%

Key Metrics

Mar 2014 Sep 2014 Mar 2015 Sep 2015 Mar 2016









Condominium Market Overview


Change

Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for Condominium Properties Only.

Closed Sales 577 750

Median Sales Price $455,000 $480,000

Inventory of Homes for Sale 1,399 1,478

Days on Market Until Sale 66 60

Housing Affordability Index 94

+ 30.0%

Key Metrics

1,827 + 20.6%1,515

88 - 6.4% 97 92 - 5.2%

+ 5.5% $443,500 $460,000 + 3.7%

--

-- --

+ 5.6% -- --

Months Supply of Inventory 1.6 1.6 0.0% --

- 9.1% 66

+ 26.2%

Pct. of Orig. List Price Received 98.7% 99.7% + 1.0% 98.3%

- 9.1%

98.7% + 0.4%

60


+ 27.1%Pending Sales 995 1,174 + 18.0% 2,109 2,680

New Listings 1,264 1,530 + 21.0% 2,601 3,282










Closed Sales

Closed Sales Single-FamilyYear-Over-Year

Change CondominiumYear-Over-Year

Change

Apr-2015 767 -6.0% 691 -23.8%

May-2015 1,063 -10.1% 956 -9.6%

Jun-2015 1,873 +11.1% 1,390 +5.8%

Jul-2015 1,908 +8.8% 1,374 +13.2%

Aug-2015 1,711 +11.5% 1,252 +7.7%

Sep-2015 1,221 +17.5% 943 +7.0%

Oct-2015 1,121 +8.3% 832 -4.7%

Nov-2015 1,011 +7.8% 773 +16.4%

Dec-2015 1,252 +11.3% 912 +8.1%

Jan-2016 845 +17.9% 607 +24.9%

Feb-2016 590 +10.5% 470 +4.0%

Mar-2016 773 +12.5% 750 +30.0%

12-Month Avg 1,178 +8.3% 913 +5.0%

Historical Closed Sales by Month


A count of the actual sales that closed in a given month.

666704687

577

773 750

Single-Family Condominium

March

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

1-2003 1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016


1,8561,728

1,938

1,515

2,208

1,827


Year to Date

2014 2015 2016

+ 30.0%- 18.0%+ 12.5%+ 3.2% - 12.3%+ 13.9%+ 4.4% + 20.6%

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016

- 11.9% - 6.8% + 3.7%+ 5.5%

Median Sales Price

Median Sales Price Single-FamilyYear-Over-Year


Change

Apr-2015 $510,000 +5.2% $436,000 +9.0%

May-2015 $520,000 +5.7% $462,000 +10.5%

Jun-2015 $560,000 +4.7% $460,000 +7.0%

Jul-2015 $550,000 +5.8% $460,000 +10.0%

Aug-2015 $529,500 +2.8% $455,000 +8.9%

Sep-2015 $492,000 +7.2% $425,900 +3.5%

Oct-2015 $475,000 +0.8% $455,000 +15.2%

Nov-2015 $518,000 +6.6% $450,000 +7.1%

Dec-2015 $500,501 +5.4% $445,000 +5.4%

Jan-2016 $490,000 +0.9% $442,000 -1.1%

Feb-2016 $518,750 +10.1% $449,500 +7.2%

Mar-2016 $472,000 +0.6% $480,000 +5.5%

12-Month Avg* $511,313 +4.3% $451,700 +7.4%

Historical Median Sales Price by Month

* Median Sales Price for all properties from April 2015 through March 2016. This is not the average of the individual figures above.


Point at which half of the sales sold for more and half sold for less, not accounting for seller concessions, in a given month.

$465,000

$417,308

$469,000$455,000

$472,000 $480,000


March

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

1-2003 1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016


$450,000

$407,000

$475,000$443,500

$490,000$460,000


Year to Date

2014 2015 2016

+ 5.5%+ 9.0%+ 0.6%+ 0.9% + 9.0%+ 3.2%+ 5.6% + 3.7%

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016

+ 14.8% + 11.1% + 11.5%+ 6.3%

Housing Affordability Index

Affordability Index Single-FamilyYear-Over-Year


Change

Apr-2015 85 +4.9% 99 +1.0%

May-2015 84 +2.4% 94 -2.1%

Jun-2015 76 +1.3% 93 -1.1%

Jul-2015 76 -1.3% 91 -5.2%

Aug-2015 80 +2.6% 93 -4.1%

Sep-2015 87 0.0% 101 +4.1%

Oct-2015 90 +4.7% 94 -8.7%

Nov-2015 82 -2.4% 94 -3.1%

Dec-2015 85 -2.3% 96 -1.0%

Jan-2016 86 -3.4% 96 -1.0%

Feb-2016 82 -10.9% 94 -9.6%

Mar-2016 90 -2.2% 88 -6.4%

12-Month Avg 84 -0.2% 94 -3.6%

Historical Housing Affordability Index by Month


This index measures housing affordability for the region. An index of 120 means the median household income is 120% of what is necessary to qualify for the median-priced home under prevailing interest rates. A higher number means greater affordability.

85

9492 9490 88


March

40

60

80

100

120

140

1-2003 1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016


8897

9097

8692


Year to Date

2014 2015 2016

- 6.4%0.0%- 2.2%+ 8.2% 0.0%- 4.4%+ 2.3% - 5.2%

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016

- 17.5% - 14.6% - 14.9%- 11.3%

Inventory of Homes for Sale

Homes for Sale Single-FamilyYear-Over-Year


Change

Apr-2015 3,020 -3.5% 1,760 -5.1%

May-2015 3,567 -3.0% 1,969 -2.7%

Jun-2015 3,729 -1.2% 1,961 -1.3%

Jul-2015 3,733 +0.9% 1,921 +0.4%

Aug-2015 3,612 +1.7% 1,834 +4.7%

Sep-2015 3,921 +1.4% 2,127 +10.6%

Oct-2015 3,765 +0.5% 2,066 +5.6%

Nov-2015 3,131 +1.8% 1,821 +11.3%

Dec-2015 2,349 -3.0% 1,387 +9.0%

Jan-2016 2,252 -1.5% 1,360 +4.8%

Feb-2016 2,211 +6.2% 1,326 +6.2%

Mar-2016 2,618 +14.8% 1,478 +5.6%

12-Month Avg 3,159 +0.8% 1,751 +3.7%

Historical Inventory of Homes for Sale by Month


The number of properties available for sale in active status at the end of a given month.

2,639

1,664

2,280

1,399

2,618

1,478


March

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

1-2003 1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016


2014 2015 2016

+ 5.6%- 15.9%+ 14.8%- 13.6%2014 2015 2016

- 5.9% - 13.2%

Months Supply of Inventory

Months Supply Single-FamilyYear-Over-Year


Change

Apr-2015 2.8 0.0% 2.1 +5.0%

May-2015 3.3 0.0% 2.3 +4.5%

Jun-2015 3.4 0.0% 2.3 +9.5%

Jul-2015 3.4 +3.0% 2.2 +4.8%

Aug-2015 3.2 -3.0% 2.1 +5.0%

Sep-2015 3.5 -2.8% 2.4 +9.1%

Oct-2015 3.3 -5.7% 2.4 +9.1%

Nov-2015 2.7 -6.9% 2.1 +16.7%

Dec-2015 2.0 -9.1% 1.6 +14.3%

Jan-2016 1.9 -9.5% 1.5 0.0%

Feb-2016 1.9 0.0% 1.5 +7.1%

Mar-2016 2.2 +4.8% 1.6 0.0%

12-Month Avg* 2.8 -1.8% 2.0 +7.1%

Historical Months Supply of Inventory by Month

* Months Supply for all properties from April 2015 through March 2016. This is not the average of the individual figures above.


The inventory of homes for sale at the end of a given month, divided by the average monthly closed sales from the last 12 months.

2.3

1.8

2.1

1.6

2.2

1.6


March

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

1-2003 1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016


2014 2015 2016

0.0%- 11.1%+ 4.8%- 8.7%2014 2015 2016

- 11.5% - 18.2%

Days on Market Until Sale

Days on Market Single-FamilyYear-Over-Year


Change

Apr-2015 78 +9.9% 59 +1.7%

May-2015 58 +7.4% 45 -10.0%

Jun-2015 52 +4.0% 39 -13.3%

Jul-2015 49 -2.0% 40 -18.4%

Aug-2015 54 +5.9% 45 -10.0%

Sep-2015 57 -6.6% 50 -2.0%

Oct-2015 64 +4.9% 50 0.0%

Nov-2015 61 -7.6% 55 +3.8%

Dec-2015 70 +1.4% 52 -5.5%

Jan-2016 73 -13.1% 58 -1.7%

Feb-2016 91 -3.2% 64 -13.5%

Mar-2016 80 -13.0% 60 -9.1%

12-Month Avg* 66 -0.8% 51 -7.6%

Historical Days on Market Until Sale by Month

* Days on Market for all properties from April 2015 through March 2016. This is not the average of the individual figures above.


Average number of days between when a property is listed and when an offer is accepted in a given month.

75

63

92

66

80

60


March

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1-2003 1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016


76

65

90

66

80

60


Year to Date

2014 2015 2016

- 9.1%+ 4.8%- 13.0%+ 22.7% + 1.5%- 11.1%+ 18.4% - 9.1%

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016

- 21.9% - 22.4% - 17.7%- 7.4%

Percent of Original List Price Received

Pct. of Orig. List Price Received Single-Family

Year-Over-YearChange Condominium

Year-Over-YearChange

Apr-2015 97.4% -0.6% 100.6% +1.1%

May-2015 99.1% +0.4% 100.8% +0.1%

Jun-2015 99.7% +0.5% 101.6% +1.0%

Jul-2015 99.5% +0.9% 101.2% +1.3%

Aug-2015 98.5% +0.3% 100.6% +0.6%

Sep-2015 97.7% +0.8% 99.5% +0.5%

Oct-2015 96.7% 0.0% 99.7% +1.2%

Nov-2015 97.4% +0.8% 99.4% +1.3%

Dec-2015 96.1% +0.5% 98.4% +0.5%

Jan-2016 95.8% -0.1% 97.9% +0.1%

Feb-2016 95.7% +0.6% 98.1% -0.1%

Mar-2016 97.6% +1.1% 99.7% +1.0%

12-Month Avg* 97.6% +0.4% 99.8% +0.7%

Historical Percent of Original List Price Received by Month

* Pct. of Orig. List Price Received for all properties from April 2015 through March 2016. This is not the average of the individual figures above.


Percentage found when dividing a property’s sales price by its original list price, then taking the average for all properties soldin a given month, not accounting for seller concessions.

96.9% 98.6%96.5% 98.7%97.6% 99.7%


March

87.5%

90.0%

92.5%

95.0%

97.5%

100.0%

102.5%

1-2003 1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016


96.3% 98.0%95.9% 98.3%96.4% 98.7%


Year to Date

2014 2015 2016

+ 1.0%+ 0.1%+ 1.1%- 0.4% + 0.3%+ 0.5%- 0.4% + 0.4%

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016

+ 1.9% + 1.9% + 1.3%+ 1.2%

Pending Sales

Pending Sales Single-FamilyYear-Over-Year


Change

Apr-2015 1,554 +5.5% 1,276 +1.3%

May-2015 1,773 +10.1% 1,300 +11.2%

Jun-2015 1,793 +15.5% 1,383 +17.6%

Jul-2015 1,292 +9.1% 967 +2.1%

Aug-2015 1,127 +15.5% 821 +12.3%

Sep-2015 1,215 +17.2% 864 +0.3%

Oct-2015 1,264 +8.5% 958 +14.6%

Nov-2015 956 +6.2% 728 +10.5%

Dec-2015 666 +12.7% 522 +12.7%

Jan-2016 695 -2.1% 664 +21.2%

Feb-2016 920 +44.0% 842 +48.8%

Mar-2016 1,519 +35.9% 1,174 +18.0%

12-Month Avg 1,231 +14.0% 958 +12.6%

Historical Pending Sales by Month

A count of the properties in UAG status between the first and last day in a given month, regardless of current status (based on Off Market Date).


1,213

1,0691,118995

1,519

1,174


March

250

500

750

1,000

1,250

1,500

1,750

2,000

1-2003 1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016


2,589 2,4872,467

2,109

3,134

2,680


Year to Date

2014 2015 2016

+ 18.0%- 6.9%+ 35.9%- 7.8% - 15.2%+ 27.0%- 4.7% + 27.1%

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016

- 12.4% - 13.0% - 6.9%- 12.6%

New Listings

New Listings Single-FamilyYear-Over-Year


Change

Apr-2015 2,482 +13.2% 1,742 +9.2%

May-2015 2,548 +5.1% 1,662 +9.6%

Jun-2015 2,277 +13.3% 1,563 +15.3%

Jul-2015 1,634 +12.7% 1,119 +3.4%

Aug-2015 1,335 +11.5% 937 +17.9%

Sep-2015 1,957 +8.1% 1,440 +12.1%

Oct-2015 1,526 +3.0% 1,161 +4.0%

Nov-2015 884 +18.5% 766 +26.8%

Dec-2015 558 +10.5% 469 +17.0%

Jan-2016 905 +7.1% 810 +14.1%

Feb-2016 1,127 +74.2% 942 +50.2%

Mar-2016 2,196 +45.8% 1,530 +21.0%

12-Month Avg 1,619 +15.5% 1,178 +14.5%

Historical New Listings by Month


A count of the properties that have been newly listed on the market in a given month.

1,695

1,3081,506

1,264

2,196

1,530


March

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

1-2003 1-2004 1-2005 1-2006 1-2007 1-2008 1-2009 1-2010 1-2011 1-2012 1-2013 1-2014 1-2015 1-2016


3,618

3,0832,998

2,601

4,228

3,282


Year to Date

2014 2015 2016

+ 21.0%- 3.4%+ 45.8%- 11.2% - 15.6%+ 41.0%- 17.1% + 26.2%

2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016 2014 2015 2016

+ 6.5% - 4.4% - 9.0%- 8.0%

City of Boston - Market Overview


Change

Key market metrics for the current month and year-to-date figures for the City of Boston.

Closed Sales 298 347 + 16.4%

Key Metrics

879 + 15.4%

Median Sales Price $487,000 $548,000 + 12.5% $489,000 $529,000 + 8.2%

762

Housing Affordability Index 97 85 - 12.4% 97 88 - 9.3%

----

Months Supply of Inventory 1.6 1.7 + 6.3% --

Inventory of Homes for Sale 684 774 + 13.2% --

64 58

-- --

+ 13.1% 1,068

- 9.4%

Pct. of Orig. List Price Received 97.6% 99.0% + 1.4% 97.0% 98.0% + 1.0%

Days on Market Until Sale 64 58 - 9.4%


+ 19.0%

1,601 + 22.5%

1,271

New Listings 620 761 + 22.7% 1,307

Pending Sales 482 545










Regional Map

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Eastern Middlesex Region Southern Norfolk RegionBurlington AvonMalden BellinghamMedford CantonMelrose FoxboroNorth Reading FranklinReading MansfieldStoneham NorfolkWakefield NorwoodWilmington RandolphWinchester SharonWoburn Stoughton

WalpoleMetro Boston Region WestwoodArlington WrenthamBelmontBostonBrooklineCambridgeChelseaDedhamEverettMiltonNewtonRevereSomervilleWalthamWatertownWinthrop

A map of the the 64 areas and 5 regions that make up "Greater Boston."

Greater Boston Association of REALTORS® Regional Map

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march 2016 greater boston real estate market trends report

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