march 2008

Epilogueb e c a u s e t h e r e i s m o r e t o k n o w

www.epilogue.in

Editor in ChiefZafar Choudhary

Consulting EditorD. Suba Chandran

Associate EditorIrm Amin Baig

Photo DivisionJ.P. Bandral

Designs & LayoutKeshav Sharma

Executive DirectorMohammad Yasmeen

Mailing AddressPO Box 50, HO Gandhi Nagar, Jammu

Phones & emailEditorial: +91 94194-80762Administration:+91 9419631610

+91 [email protected]@epilogue.in

Edited, Printed and Published byZafar Choudhary for CMRD Publications and Communications Published from ‘Ibadat’, Madrasa Lane, Bhatindi Top, Jammu, J&K

Printed at Dee Dee Reprographix, Jammu

Disputes, if any, subject to jurisdiction of courts and competitive tribunals in Jammu only.

Price : Rs 40

CONTENTS

Letters to the editor 2Prologue 3

Reports

The SOZ Factor 9Oil Hunt 10Land Of Rising Sons 12

Transparency

32

Special Report

37

Ladakh PoliticsLadakh UT Movement :

39Empty Rattling

CommentaryIndia’s Australia Series

42And Beyond

Review

Book 44Movie 45

Columns

Tareekh 47Jest Ponder 49

Security

Mizoram 51

AnalysisHuman Rights Situation In

Pak, Gilgit And Baltistan 52

Epilogue

From the Consulting Editor 54

Legal Opinion On

J&K RTI Amendment Bill

Salwa Judum :

A Purification Hunt ?

Volume 2, Issue 3, March 2008

IN FOCUS

The Return Of Democracy In Neighbourhood, its significance for

Jammu & Kashmir

Pakistan Election 2008 16

Return of Democracy ?29

Pakistan Elections And India-Pakistan 30Peace Process

Epilogue Ø × January 20081

the return ofdemocracy in

neighbourhood,its significance for

jammu and kashmir

the return ofdemocracy in

neighbourhood,its significance for

jammu and kashmir

LettersMail your letters to [email protected]

M A I L B O X

LETTERS TO THE EDITOR

Epilogue Ø 2 × March 2008

I FOUND EPILOGUE INTERESTING- B G Verghese

Center For Policy Research

Formerly Editor Indian Express, Hindustan Times, Advisor to Prime Minister Indira Gandhi

Many people may not be the immediate recent years. 2007 was, therefore, often beneficiaries or victims of any electoral described as a defining moment in the process but still a majority is seen as a history of Kashmir peace process. It all keen watcher of elections and processes derailed. The assassination of Benazir that involve change of regime. Our Bhutto came as most unfortunate event in immediate neighbourhood, Pakistan, the neighbourhood. With her death the went to elections on February 18 and in possibilities of stability returning to Jammu and Kashmir the event evoked a Pakistan appeared further grim. The keen interest. People remained glued to much awaited and the much suspected the television screens to watch the elections are now over. Contrary to wide outcome, the local press carried the apprehensions of rigging and violence, reportage prominently and the process the elections have been relatively fair involved a dominant discourse at all and free of any major incident of places –from casual discussions at the tea violence. Pakistan can be seen limping stalls to the working committee back to democracy though not much meetings of the political parties. It was towards normalcy. People had been not just the educated and the media- watching the Pakistan elections with conscious here that had focused keen interest but not knowing much attention on the Pakistan elections, about the internal political structure of every one was equally keen. Why the the country. Our Consulting Editor D Pakistan elections assumed so much of Suba Chandran with his expert team importance in Jammu and Kashmir? After including Rekha Chakravarthi, Devyani all it is our immediate neighbourhood. Srivastva had been keeping a keen eye “You can change a friend but not a on the neighbourhood. They bring the neighbour, therefore always pray for the exclusive reportage and analysis after wellbeing for the neighbour as it is in reading which you don't need to read your own interest”, says the wisdom. more about Pakistan politics at the Developments in Pakistan are always regional and provincial levels. A report keenly watched not only in J&K but also from Madiha Tallat, our associate in in most of India. This time, however, Lahore, brings a precise picture from people were not only watching the the ground and tells story of missing process but were also praying for the Kashmir from political discourse. positive outcome. For the internal Situation unfolding in the near future disturbance in Pakistan, the Kashmir has to bee seen keenly. As things move peace process stands stalled for almost toward stability in Pakistan, the signs a year. While there is no positive talking of instability are emerging from with Islamabad, the course of dialogue India. There are possibilities of between New Delhi and Srinagar too has country going to elections later this not been moving forward because year. If we realize the significance or stability in Pakistan has a direct bearing democracy in neighbourhood there is also on the peace process. Most mainstream need to realize the urgency of utilizing and separatist politicians here decided the opportunity. Once things settle to wait and watch till a clearer picture down in Islamabad, India and Pakistan emerged in Pakistan. Pakistan has seen should start talking peace and talking most turbulent times since the beginning Kashmir. of last year. Incidentally that was the time when the contours of peace process Feedback : and thus possibilities of stability in the

[email protected] were looking brightest in the


EPILOGUE aims at providing a platform where a meaningful exchange of ideas, opinion and thoughts can take place among the people and about the people of Jammu & Kashmir. The attempt is to research, investigate, communicate and disseminate information, ideas and alternatives for the resolution of common problems facing the state and society of Jammu & Kashmir and in the context of their significance to South Asia as a whole.

We welcome contributions from academics, journalists, researches, economists and strategic thinkers. We would also like to encourage first-time writers with the only requirements being a concern for and the desire to understand the prevailing issues and themes of life in Jammu & Kashmir

Contributions may be investigate, descriptive, analytical or theorectical. They may be in the form of original articles or in the form of a comment on current events. All contributions have to be neatly types in double space and may be sent to the address given alongside or e-mailed to the editor.

While the editor accepts responsibility for the selection of the material published, individual authors are responsible for the facts, figures and viess ithe tier articles.

P R O L O G U E

FROM THE EDITOR


Let’s Start Talking

Zafar Choudhary

H E A R A N D H E A R

WHO SAID WHAT


“Congress will be keeping its options open for the poll alliance with any party. I think PDP will

also have the same situation”Saifudin Soz

“The successive Governments in Delhi were never sincere to mitigate sufferings of the masses

instead, they played regional and communal cards for its own vested interests”Dr Farooq Abdullah

“The Army must only be used as a last resort and for a minimal period”Gen Deepak Kapoor, Chief of Army Staff, Indian Army

“According to our intelligence inputs, present number of militants in the Valley is 450” MS Gupta, IG CRPF Kashmir – Operations

“It is not our duty. It is for the executive to decide how to consider the matter. We cannot pass

such direction,” Chief Justice K G Balakrishanan heading the bench on expediting the execution of death sentence of Mohammad Afzal

“We are not selling the

land to outsiders, but it

could be provided to them

on lease for the development of infrastructure”

Ghulam Nabi Azad

C H R O N O L O G Y

J&K FEBRUARY 2008


February 1: Kashmir issue could be resolved through February 9: "sincerity, courage and flexibility". In a message on the "Kashmir solidarity day" Expressing serious concern over the The Bahujan Samaj Party of Mayawati has he said, "we firmly believe that an failure of various States including J&K to declared to contest elections on all 87 enabling environment is necessary for create better infrastructure for the assembly constituencies of J&K. the success of the peace process." "We judiciary, Chief Justice of India Justice K Elections are due later this year. Party remain engaged in a sincere, sustained G Balakrishnan said that judiciary national general secretary Narinder and purposeful dialogue with India on e m p o w e r e d w i t h a d e q u a t e Kashyap told a press conference in Kashmir. We believe that with sincerity, infrastructure can contribute to the Srinagar that BSP wants to play a serious courage and flexibility, we can achieve a overall growth of the country. "It is pity role in J&K. "People of the State are fed

that executive is neglecting judiciary solution to the long-standing Kashmir up with corrupt and self centered while carrying out infrastructure dispute," he said. politicians, and BSP will provide young, development. Executive should keep in dynamic and clean leadership which will mind that we don't have any financial work for peace and development of the February 5: output". He was addressing valedictory State," he added.function of Lok Adalat Week in the High

Heavy snowfall, rains and landslides Court Complex in Jammu. February 2: throw life out of gear across J&K. The

Jammu-Srinagar highway –only surface February 10: link between two capitals –is closed and First cross-LoC infiltration bid of this year hundreds of passengers get stranded on if foiled in Mendhar sector of Poonch

Three soldiers of Pakistan Army both sides. district in which three top militants, inadvertently land inside Indian territory believed to be Pakistanis, and two police in RS sector, close to IB in Jammu region.

personnel including a constable and a February 6: They have been identified as Nasir Special Police Officer are killed while an

Ahmed, Amzad Farooq and Syed Zia-ul-Army soldier is injured. A heavy exchange

Shah, aged between 24 and 26, were Punjab National Bank announces plan to of gunfighting started between the two unarmed. They were taken into custody put all branches in J&K on National sides after a contact with the infiltrators and questioning revealed that they were Network of Centralized Banking Solutions was established in dense Ghani forests, the sportspersons of Pak army who lost (CBS) by March 2008 and also to link these about a couple of kms inside the LoC. their way and landed in Indian side. They branches with other banks for National were later pushed off in a gesture of Electronic Fund Transfer (NEFT) system.

February 3: goodwill. Vivek Arya, PNB Zonal Manager, says that branches in rural areas would be linked to

PDP chief Mehbooba Mufti meets PM February 11: National Network with Double VSAT Manmohan Singh in New Delhi and connectivity while lease line and ISDN projects demand for safe return of medium provided by BSNL would be used 129 civilians cross Line of Control (LoC) youths and political leaders who had for city and district headquarters on Poonch-Rawlakot bus service from gone across during turmoil and are now branches. Chakkan-Da-Bagh in Poonch district. eager to return. She said any relief to the While 81 persons travelled from Poonch youth who had gone across for arms to Pakistan administered Kashmir, 48 February 7: training and are now eager to return and boarded the bus from PaK to Poonch. Out live normal life, should be extended to of 81 civilians, who travelled from

J&K DGP says that some 550 to 600 non-combatants as well who had gone Poonch to PaK, 29 were first timers militants infiltrated from across LoC into across during the turmoil, under visiting from this side to PoK to meet the state. He says that despite internal whatever circumstances. "It will be a divided families and relatives while 52 turmoil in Pakistan, there was not let up significant goodwill gesture and a were PaK citizens who went back homes

reconciliatory move of great essence on in infiltration. Based on inputs the DGP after spending two fortnights on this behalf of the Government of India," she says that terror infrastructure was intact side. Among 48 persons who came to said. in Pakistan and its administered Kashmir. Poonch from PaK, 21 arrived here from

PaK to meet their relatives while 27 were J&K citizens who returned after spending February 4: February 8: a month in PaK.

Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf At least 20 people are reported killed in February 11:

advocats the need for creating an different parts of state following heavy "enabling environment" for the success of snowfall and cold weather persisting for

The toll of militants in the Valley has the Indo-Pak peace process and said the last six days. Many still are missing.


decreased and presently it is less than regional card and tried to divide people killed and four others injured when a thousand which is lowest since inception of the State on regional and communal vehicle, they were travelling in, plunged of militancy. "According to our basis. "They want us to keep fighting with into a 100 feet deep gorge at Champeri intelligence inputs, present number of each other so that they can rule us", he on Jammu-Srinagar National Highway militants in the Valley is 450," MS Gupta, added. near Udhampur. IG CRPF Kashmir – Operations said. But it is a floating population and they are February 16: February 22: always on move. The maximum number could be upto 950. They (militants) are

NC President Omar Abdullah declared UPA chairperson and Congress president always on move. that his party was ready for pre-poll Sonia Gandhi accompanied by Home alliance with the like minded parties for Minister Shivraj Patil and a team of Union

February 12: forthcoming assembly elections in the Home Ministry visits the remote areas of state. He said "the question of thinking Bhadarwah, Navapachi and Marwah to about post poll alliance does not arise at The State Human Rights Commission review the situation caused by the recent this stage but we are open for the pre-(SHRC) today issues notices to Inspector heavy snowfall, which took 30 lives in the poll alliance with like minded parties to General of Police Kashmir range and State besides rendering several people face the coalition partners in the ensuing Deputy Commissioner Kupwara asking homeless. Assembly elections".

them submit a report on the alleged firing by Army on protestors at Kupwara.

February 23: February 17: Taking suo moto cognisance of reports in local media about the incident, acting

Army Chief, General Deepak Kapoor says Chairman of the SHRC H U Bhat directed Gujjar and Bakerwal Joint Forum serves that the infiltration of militants from IGP S M Sahai and Deputy Commissioner an ultimatum to the leaders of PDP and across the LoC in Jammu and Kashmir was NC who have been pursuing agenda of ST Asfandyar Khan to submit the report by

status to non-tribal Pahari speaking on decline but the attempts had gone up Feb 25. people to shun their anti-tribal Gujjar in the recent past. In 2006, the policies or remain prepared to face wrath infiltration was approximately 343 as per February 13: of STs in the State. our count. In 2007, the figure stood at

311," he said in a television interview. The Central government agrees to February 18: construct a 1000 MW thermal power

February 24: plant in Udhampur within a period of Clearing the air on buying land in Jammu three years. Decision is taken in a and Kashmir controversy, Chief Minister meeting between CM GN Azad and Union PDP President Mehbooba Mufti blames NC Ghulam Nabi Azad says there was nothing

Power Minister Sushil Kumar Shinde. The for turmoil in state. She also holds the wrong in offering land on lease to

Center also agreed to joint funding of the party responsible for killing prominent outsiders for development purposes. "We

Baglihar hydro-electric project on political leaders in Kashmir. Reacting to a are not selling the land to outsiders, but Chenab River. In yet another decision the statement of former CM Dr Farooq it could be provided to them on lease for modernization of Jammu and Srinagar Abdullah, the PDP chief says, "when Dr the development of infrastructure," he airports was agreed upon by the Civil Abdullah remains in the power he said adding that Jammu and Kashmir has Aviation Ministry, besides sanctioning showers all praises on the Delhi and to open up to achieve all round two new airports for rural area –Kishtwar speaks critical against Pakistan but starts development. and Surankote. outbursts against the Union Government

when he is out of the corridors of the February 19 : power".February 13:

Kashmiri Congress leader and Union In exercise of the powers vested in him Minister for Water Resources Saif-ud-Din February 25: under section 53 of the Constitution of Soz is formally appointed as president of Jammu and Kashmir, Governor Lt. Gen. J&K unit of Congress. (Retd) S.K. Sinha prorogues both the President of India, Pratibha Patil in her

Houses of State Legislature, which were address to join sitting of Parliament says adjourned sine die by Speaker Tara Chand February 14: that the Government is focusing on on January 30. confidence building in all sections of

society in Jammu and Kashmir by Former CM and NC leader Dr Farooq February 21: ensuring easier travel across the Line of Abdullah blames New Delhi for unrest

Control and meeting the aspirations of and militancy in state. He said that the people to foster peace and normalcy.Six persons including a Russian tourist are Central Governments always played

C H R O N O L O G Y

J&K FEBRUARY 2008

This Month Remind Your Friends, That You Care!

That, You Care for Their Intellectual Growth

The Journey to a Friend’s House

IS NEVER TOO LONG


Jammu and Kashmir’s Monthly Magazine

Makes The Journey To Your Friend’s House Easy

Instead of blindly focusing on sales, Epilogue seeks

to reach out to quality readers - who have the quest

for knowing more. Therefore, we want you to suggest

us some sharp minds. Please fill in names and

addresses of your 10 friends and relatives in the

columns overleaf. Fill in your address as well and

send this form to us. Your friends will get a free copy

of Epilogue magazine on your behalf and you will get

much more :

* The pleasure of gifting a quality magazine to

as many as 10 friends/relatives.

* 50% concession on Epilogue annual

subscription and a lasting relation with a

growing knowledge bank

Fill in the form overleaf and mail this to :General Manager, Epilogue Magazine, ‘Ibadat’ Madrasa Lane, Bathindi Top, Jammu

One Little Step Towards

A Shared Values

Community

My Name :__________________________________________________

Age :_________ Address :______________________________________

____________________________________________________________

Town :______________________ Pin :____________ Tel. :___________

E-Mail :_____________________________________________________

Occupation : Salaried Business Professional Student Housewife

PLEASE TICK HERE IF ALREADY SUBSCRIBER

Name :_____________________________________________________

Age :_________ Address :______________________________________

____________________________________________________________

Town :______________________ Pin :____________ Tel. :___________

E-Mail :_____________________________________________________


Name :_____________________________________________________

Age :_________ Address :______________________________________

____________________________________________________________

Town :______________________ Pin :____________ Tel. :___________

E-Mail :_____________________________________________________


Name :_____________________________________________________

Age :_________ Address :______________________________________

____________________________________________________________

Town :______________________ Pin :____________ Tel. :___________

E-Mail :_____________________________________________________


Name :_____________________________________________________

Age :_________ Address :______________________________________

____________________________________________________________

Town :______________________ Pin :____________ Tel. :___________

E-Mail :_____________________________________________________


Name :_____________________________________________________

Age :_________ Address :______________________________________

____________________________________________________________

Town :______________________ Pin :____________ Tel. :___________

E-Mail :_____________________________________________________


Please send a copy of Epilogue to following addresses on my behalf

Name :_____________________________________________________

Age :_________ Address :______________________________________

____________________________________________________________

Town :______________________ Pin :____________ Tel. :___________

E-Mail :_____________________________________________________


Name :_____________________________________________________

Age :_________ Address :______________________________________

____________________________________________________________

Town :______________________ Pin :____________ Tel. :___________

E-Mail :_____________________________________________________


Name :_____________________________________________________

Age :_________ Address :______________________________________

____________________________________________________________

Town :______________________ Pin :____________ Tel. :___________

E-Mail :_____________________________________________________


Name :_____________________________________________________

Age :_________ Address :______________________________________

____________________________________________________________

Town :______________________ Pin :____________ Tel. :___________

E-Mail :_____________________________________________________


Name :_____________________________________________________

Age :_________ Address :______________________________________

____________________________________________________________

Town :______________________ Pin :____________ Tel. :___________

E-Mail :_____________________________________________________



The Assembly elections in Jammu and priorities. Same year, Soz was inducted as

Kashmir are due later this year and the Union Minister for Water Resources and his

Congress party –currently leading the growing clout in Delhi started showing.

government in alliance with Peoples Despite his rise in the government and

Democratic Party –is preparing for the organization in Delhi, the Congress unit in

game in a different way. Eye brows were Jammu and Kashmir refused to be aligned

raised in the political circles when the with Soz. Instead a large majority

Congress president Sonia Gandhi continued to swear by Azad. Now when Soz

appointed Union Water Resources is president of the J&K unit of the

Minister Prof Saif-ud-Din Soz as Congress, a general feeling in the political

president of Jammu and Kashmir unit of circles says that Azad is being sidelined

Congress. The post had fallen vacant and Soz is being propped up as parallel

after res ignat ion of Peerzada power center in the state. The political

Mohammad Sayeed in January, who had observers and the Congress insiders

to quit as Minister also, following capable of reading the 'high command'

allegations of corruption. Opposition to pulse refuse to buy this theory.

the nomination of Soz is well known in

the rank and file of state Congress. Till who had been enjoying the 'Kashmir Background recently he was with the National space' in the party for nearly 30 years. In Conference but the Congress 'high 2004, Congress returned to power and After 1987 blot which it earned by rigging command' in Delhi pushed for his Ghulam Nabi Azad, also Rajya Sabha elections in alliance with National meteoric rise in organization as well as member from J&K, was inducted as Conference under the infamous Rajiv-in government since he played an Minister for Parliamentary Affairs. Azad Farooq accord, the Congress in Jammu instrumental role in the fall of BJP led was also an AICC General Secretary and and Kashmir had been relegated to NDA government in the devastating 1999 member of the Congress Working oblivion till 2002. Ghulam Nabi Azad was floor test in the Lok Sabha. Soz was Committee –the two most powerful appointed as state Congress president in subsequently expelled by the National positions anyone would aspire to have in April 2001 replacing Mohammad Shafi Conference. Later same year he the Congress. In November 2005, the

Qureshi –an honest politician with no contested election for Lok Sabha from Congress 'high command' decided to send

contacts with ground. Qureshi's vast the North Kashmir just to suffer a Azad back to Jammu and Kashmir to

experience of serving as Governor of humiliating defeat and even to loose his replace Mufti Mohammad Sayeed as

several states would often make him security deposits. Soz then stood in the Chief Minister under the PDP-Congress

allergic to the public and thus distance middle of nowhere before Congress power sharing pact of 2002. By this Congress from the grassroots. When Azad ventured out to honour him for the appointment he had to loose the position took over, he found the going tough. The symbolic role he played in fall of NDA of AICC General Secretary though he Congress was divided into dozens of government by abstaining voting in the remained an invitee to the CWC for a lobbies and there was a whole hostile Lok Sabha despite a clear party whip. A brief while by virtue of being the Chief atmosphere. Situation was more critical in couple of years later the Congress Minister of a Congress run state. Kashmir Valley where showing Congress formally inducted him into the party and Azad's exit from Delhi marked the flag was next to a sin. He had his political then rewarded with a seat in the Rajya organizational rise of Soz. Few months career at the cross roads. Elections were Sabha. later, he replaced Azad as member of the due next year and only a better

Soz's induction in the Congress in a way Congress Working Committee. This performance could have restored him the challenged the role of Ghulam Nabi Azad underlined Congress' redrawn Kashmir

powerful organizational position in Delhi.

‘High Command’ Balances Political Fulcrum Ahead Of Polls

Epilogue News & Analysis

R E P O R T S

THE SOZ FACTOR


He made a careful poll strategy and

embarked on Jammu-centr ic

campaign. “For first time since

independence, you will get a Chief

Minister from Jammu region” –this

become the central campaign theme

and there was an overwhelming

response cutting across all lines.

Congress fetched 15 seats from

Jammu, five from Kashmir and then

another group of five independent

legislators from Jammu region joined

the Congress as associate members.

The party was back to the power

structure after two decades. Azad

was recalled in Delhi with his fresh

election to Rajya Sabha and the

powerful post of AICC General

Secretary was restored to him.

Mapping Future

When Congress prepares for 2008

elections, things are not all the same.

At a time when the Kashmir peace

process can be seen entering a

defining moment, a national political

party like Congress can not afford to

make regions and sub-regions as

themes of poll campaign. The party

has given Jammu region the Chief

M in i s te r and there fo re the

organization president is from the

Valley. Then what difference Soz

makes when the previous party chief

was also from the Valley? Obviously,

his stature. Soz carries a profile which

matches that of Azad. Being a Union

Minister he will also wield some

symbolic clout and influence in the

Valley when the party embarks on poll

campaign later this year. If there

some discontent in the Valley about

the Chief Minister being from Jammu

region, the Soz does fact does some

balancing act. Soz's appointment, it is

believed, comes with full concurrence

of the Chief Minister Azad.

Feeback : [email protected]

R E P O R T S

OIL HUNT

“Geology is non political and does not countries, particularly Europe, Middle East

believe in boundaries”, if this realized by and Pakistan, gathered at Jammu University

the hostile South Asian neighbours –India campus and traveled across the rugged

and Pakistan –they can look at making terrains of Jammu region to study the rock

Jammu and Kashmir an area of patterns which if dug deep can make

cooperation rather than contentions as Jammu and Kashmir yet another Gulf.

this place been between the two

countries for sixty years now. The arrival “This Conference was not J&K specific or of leading Pakistani geologists and Indo-Pak specific on oil and gas exploration executives from the oil companies for as believed by many”, says Prof GM Bhat of exploring the oil and gas potential in the Department of Geology at JU. In fact, Jammu and Kashmir can be a beginning in Bhat says, the initiative was actually to this direction. study the rock patterns which are similar

to those in the oil rich regions of the world.

Being non-political in nature and for the The participation of delegates from

absence of J&K Chief Minister as Chief Pakistan, of course, makes the event

Guest, an international conference important as Northern and Western areas

hosted by the University of Jammu in of India share the same geological patterns

February could not the media attention as with Pakistan which are believed to be rich

this subject and its future course should in oil. The field trips and the brainstorming

have got. 140 geoscientists drawn from 60 sessions examine the neoproterozoic

Geology : Fueling Indo-Pak Cooperation

Epilogue News & Analysis

near Batote comprises grey phyllites, buff ystematic geological mapping of S quartzite, carbonaceous phyllite, pale Sirban Limestone in Reasi inlier yellow and fragile argillite with a gypsum revealed the existence of black shales, band. The lithologs of exploratory m u d s t o n e s i n t e r b e d d e d w i t h boreholes in Kaurapani and Ramban areas stromatolitic dolomite. This clastic-drilled for the gypsum exploration have carbonate suite of rocks is associated been also prepared. The Sirban Limestone with orthoquartzite beds in the has similarity with coeval hydrocarbon measured sections in Reasi inlier. The bearing rocks in Siberia, north Africa, black shale and mudstone/mari bleds, Oman and other areas in the world. laterally pinching are traceable from Therefore, these rocks need to be studies west of Reasi Town in Talwar to Bukkal, for their potential for hydrocarbons. The Mari, Anji in the northwest to Kotli in the Proterozoic dolomite-evaporite succession southwest. We also took a few traverses of Doda and Ramban districts is equally across Proterozoic evaporate-dolmite important as it is overlain by diamictite succession in Doda and Ramban Districts bearing strata of Ramban Formation which and ob se r ved occu r rence s o f may turn out to be glaciogenic in origin.carbonaceous phyllite and carbonaceous

shale units in association with limestone

bands interbedded with gypsum beds. HL Langeh, Rajinder Singh, JU The stratigraphic section at Chakwa nala

Proterozoic and Evaporite-Dolomite

Succession of Jammu –A Note


You have visited J&K twice in scientists who dropped their proposed delegates sought an appointment from

connection with geological research visit as they could not be convinced the Prime Minister of India to discuss the

and deliberations. What was your about the positive situation prevailing issue, they were granted a 5 minutes

impression about this state before you here. I found a huge presence of troops time but they ended up on a 40 minute

visited first and now? here but I see this as a positive sign as this meeting. This underlines the seriousness.

gives a sense of security. Even Prime Minister was confident of a

positive future development and an Before coming here there was a lot of enhanced cooperation in the area. fear about the security situation and like Kashmir is a bone contention. Do you

many other people I too was suspicious. think India and Pakistan can actually Now being twice, I hardly find any truth look at working together on oil and gas What next?

about what the exploration in this place? world is told about

We have had deliberations and field trips J a m m u a n d

Of course yes. Geology is not political, it here. In November this year we will be Kashmir. But this

does not believe in boundaries. Besides picking up threads in next round of such o p i n i o n i s

delegates from other parts of world, I conference in Libya. The conveners of obtained after my

have been working with the scientists the conference are keeping the pe r sona l v i s i t

from India and Pakistan and I find them gove rnment s i n fo rmed o f the here. People still

optimistic about working together. The developments. Our role is limited to carry fears on

way Pakistan agreed to send their people research only and it is for the their minds. There

in Jammu and Kashmir is a positive governments to commission the a r e m a n y

beginning in that direction. When out explorations. professors and

Interview

Juergen Thurow Department of Earth Sciences,University College London

stromatolite dolomitic sequence in exchanged and Bhat landed in London in It was rather more difficult in getting the

Jammu region. April 2006 for further discussion. This delegates from Pakistan in Jammu. The

paved the way for an international delegates were ready to travel, Pakistan

conference at Jammu which saw government too was exceptionally So, what brought all these geoscientists participation of leading Geoscientists of encouraging but there were unusual from the world to Jammu? It was a the world, more significantly seven from hiccups from the India side. “I owe the meeting of Geoscientists in London in Pakistan, and concluded with a resolve to entire success of conference to the Vice 2004 which studied the particular rock see that the oil wells are dug eventually Chancellor Prof Amitabh Mattoo who patterns and oil potential in countries enriching economies and relations pursued the matter with External Affairs like China, Australia and Oman. Further between India and Pakistan. After all Ministry and saw that the best studies revealed that same rock pattern Jammu and Kashmir is the epicenter. Geoscientists from the world participate existed in Jammu and Kashmir, parts of

in the deliberations”, says Prof Bhat. Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan in India

which extend through the neighbouring The conference was not an easy to hold

areas in Pakistan. Bindra Thussu, a native event. The troubled land of Jammu and The International Conference on Geology

of Kashmir, working as Research Kashmir and its false image of daily and Hydrocarbon Potential of the

Supervisor with Maghreb Petroleum violence saw many scientists backing Neoproterozoic-Cambrian Basins in

Research Group at the University College out. Some of them joined the pre- India, Pakistan and the Middle East was a

London went thinking homewards. “I conference field trip to Rajasthan but joint initiative of the University of

tried to find out if there were any they returned from Delhi being wary of Jammu, Eni Milan, Maghreb Petroleum

organized research on the oil potential in the situation in J&K. Delegates from Research Group and Department of Earth

Jammu and Kashmir”, Thusu told many countries either refused to set out Sciences, University College London.

Epilogue in an exclusive interview. It was for this state or had to drop their travel

a google search which took him to a plans at the last minute owing to the

fellow Geologist Prof GM Bhatt at the negative advisories on J&K put by their Feedback : [email protected] of Jammu. Ideas were respective foreign offices.

R E P O R T S

OIL HUNT


he former Jammu and Kashmir Chief

Minister Mufti Mohammad Sayeed may Thave earned brickbats from the

nationalists for proposing his model of 'self rule'

to resolve Kashmir issue but his successor Ghulam

Nabi Azad has quietly implemented a part of it.

Whether it helps in resolution of Kashmir issue or

strengthens the local electoral constituency is a

separate question but a part of self rule proposal

is now working in Jammu and Kashmir. Complete

localization of the bureaucracy is one of the

major proposals in the PDP version of self rule –a

model tossed by General Pervez Musharraf.

Though the Peoples Democratic Party is yet to

make public the document which it claims has the

well defined measures for lasting solution to

Kashmir imbroglio but in its public-opinion

building campaigns in late 2006, the party told

people that officers of the All India Services will

be packed off to Delhi and only locals will man the

administration.

For more than a year now, the PDP has not been

talking about its self rule proposal and is hardly

making any mention of the bureaucratic

arrangement it had wanted to put in place. On

the contrary, the present Chief Minister Ghulam

Nabi Azad, whose Congress party shares power

with the PDP and has his opposition to the self

rule well known has partly and subtly

implemented Mufti's agenda without making any

noise about it. Under Azad's regime the sons of

soil are literally rising and shining in the

bureaucratic landscape of Jammu and Kashmir.

At present, 18 of the total 22 Deputy

Commissioners –a key post and the main interface

between people and the government –are natives

of Jammu and Kashmir. One of them is a direct IAS

recruits while the majority is drawn from the

state services, popularly known as Kashmir

Administrative Services (KAS). Interestingly, a

look at the top heavy power structure at the civil

secretariat would reveal that the entire decision

State Services Man Key Positions as IAS Officers Prefer Central Duties

Zafar Choudhary

R E P O R T S

LAND OF RISING SONS

BUREAUCRACY

Most of the key administrative responsibilities are

now in the hands of officers from state services.

How do you look at this emerging scenario?

See, officers from the Kashmir Administrative

Services are the real people who contributed to the

development and peace in Jammu and Kashmir. They

come from the local social fabric and have long

standing stakes in the society. Their coming to the

forefront of things is a compliment to their dedication

and sincerity to the system.

What dedication and sincerity? IAS

officers too are performing well.

I have always maintained that the

IAS and KAS are two faces of the

same coin. Therefore, they deserve

equal treatment in delegation of

key responsibilities. When I talk

about the dedication and sincerity

of the KAS officers, it is not only me

talking about it, this is a widely

acknowledged fact. They have

worked and continue working in

difficult terrain and hostile

circumstances. These were the

officers who served as true

representatives of people when

there was no elected government in the state. An

advisor to the then Governor (somewhere between

1990-1996) talked to the Government of India and

informed the Prime Minister about the role played by

KAS officers when Jammu and Kashmir was passing

through most difficult circumstances.

Being an elected representatives of the KAS

Interview Farooq Renzu,President of KAS officers Association


On Record:

GHULAM NABI AZAD Chief Minister, J&K

Our government has brought local officers on the centre

stage of policy and decision making and for the first time

in the history of the State local officers are holding 90

percent key positions in the administration. The

argument that local officers in J&K are not on top

administrative positions does not hold good anymore.

This casts a greater responsibility on them to perform

and come up to the expectations of the people.

My government has involved in major number local officers in decision making

process, assigning them key positions. The topmost position of Chief Secretary and

Director General of Police are both held by local officers today. for the first time, 19

out of 22 District Development Commissioners in the State belong to J&K itself.

Earlier, the case was reverse. Similarly, hardly a secretary to government level local

officer was seen in the civil secretariat but today there were as many as 27 local IAS

and KAS officers holding the position of Financial Commissioner, Principal Secretary

and Secretary to Government. Recently as many as six important departments like

education, tourism, housing and urban development and health were given under

the independent charge of local officers. In the police department also local

officers hold important positions today.

With this scenario obtaining in the civil and police administration, the local officers

have to prove their mettle and deliver. there is no room now for the blame for

inefficiency being put at the door of the government for ignoring local officers in the

decision making process. My government has changed the tradition and given local

officers the responsibilities of development and progress of the State. They have to

prove worthy of the trust the government has reposed in them. Restructuring of the

KAS cadre recently was aimed at bringing local officers on the centre stage of policy

and decision making in the State. The officers should emulate missionaries in the

service to people although they do not get perks and promotions and often have to

work in climatically and politically hostile environment, their dedication to their

mission could be a guiding force for the government employees who were paid for

their job. The government officials should consider themselves fortunate that they

had been chosen to serve the people and receive remuneration for the services as

well. I have already issued instructions to the Chief Secretary and the General

Administration Department to stop posting of non-cadre officers on cadre posts. The

issue of common seniority for KAS is also under consideration of the government. the

Government would constitute a Cabinet Sub- Committee to look into the demands of

the Association and also come up within six months with a concrete proposal on

tacking the problem of unemployment.

(Excerpts from CM's speech at a convention of KAS officers in Srinagar on July 30,

2007)

'We have brought local officers on center stage of decision making system'

R E P O R T S

LAND OF RISING SONS

officers, are you satisfied with the

responsibilities delegated to the

officers of state services.

Though I place on record on behalf of all

KAS officers our deep appreciations for

the present Chief Minister Mr Ghulam

Nabi Azad for realizing the importance of

state services but this just the beginning

and we need to go a long way. There

should be promotion avenues parallel to

the IAS officers and the KAS officers

should get the opportunity of reaching to

the positions of Principal Secretaries and

Financial Commissioners. We are not

asking this just on the basis that Jammu

and Kashmir is special category state;

many other states in the country like

Uttar Pradesh and West Bengal have a

similar system.

M o r e o v e r, a t p r e s e n t d u a l

superannuation age structure is existing

in J&K state. The officers of one premier

service retire at the age of 60 while as

officers and employees of other cadres

retire at the age of 58. The association

believes that uniform retirement age

structure will be made applicable for all

services functioning in the state

including KPS

Isn't it like cutting through the space of

IAS officers?

Not at all. I must tell you, the IAS officers

are pleading our cause more vigorously.

Though it is natural to expect such support

from the officers like Mr BR Kundal, the

Chief Secretary and Mr Khurshid Ahmed

Ganai, the Principal Secretary GAD being

the local IAS officers, the officers from

outside like Mr BB Vyas, the Commissioner

Secretary Finance are supporting our

cause pro-actively.

(RENZU is presently

Deputy Commissioner, Badgam)


making authority is consolidated in the who ret ired in October 2007. finding takers in the public. Not only that

Interestingly, Phunsog had earlier Azad has localized the bureaucracy, he has hands of local bureaucrats whether they replaced Vijay Bakaya –a Kashmiri –who taken care that the local communities, are from IAS or KAS. Out of the 24 key

regions and sub regions too get due had taken over from Sudhir Singh departments, the administrative representation in the decision making Bloeria. This is how the seat of the top secretaries of 19 are from Jammu and process. Though officers from the bureaucrat has been shifting from one Kashmir. Scheduled Castes have often found region to another in a regionally chances to serve at important positions in polarized state after the ouster of

If one major thing for which National administration but it is perhaps first time National Conference government Conference regime always earned the in the history that a member from the headed by Dr Farooq Abdullah. It is peoples' wrath is that Dr Farooq marginal tribe of Gujjars too has become a noteworthy that when Phunsog was Abdullah made his bureaucracy most Deputy Commissioner. “Problems in appointed Chief Secretary in 2006, he powerful with all significant and Jammu and Kashmir are peculiar and superseded at least two of his seniors. decision making positions manned by officer from Bihar or Maharashtra can However, one of them –Amit Kushari of the IAS officers drawn from several neither understand these problems nor West Bengal –sought premature other states. Officers from Jammu and have any stakes in the local issues”, says retirement while the other one –B R Singh Kashmir, even if they belonged to the Abdul Aziz Zargar a veteran politician and of Haryana –went to the media with his IAS, were kept for the fringe operations Minister for Agriculture. “We need to have dissent and later proceeded on a protest while those from Bihar and Haryana local officers at forefront of things and leave and simultaneously applied for called the shots. Farooq's cabinet that is the real healing touch to the premature retirement. ministers hardly minced any words in bruised people”, he adds. saying that they often found it difficult

Things are almost the same in Police seeking an audience with the Chief The two coalition partners –Congress and department. Last year, the state Secretary Ashok Jaitley and CM's the Peoples Democratic Party –despite cabinet, in a surprise decision, Principal Secretary BR Singh. The then being shareholders in power have been appointed Kuldeep Khoda –a Kashmiri IPS Chief Secretary popularly known as Tony fighting on a variety of issues. However, officer –as Director General of the state would keep the legislators waiting for there appears a complete consensus Police. Khoda's appointment as DGP yet even months to finally grant them an between the two on strengthening the KAS again had two interesting angles. First, interview. a n d g i v i n g l o c a l o f f i c e r s k e y that there was no other post higher than responsibilities. With the political mood in the rank of DGP where the then

When Mufti Mohammad Sayeed took favour of the locals, the KAS officers too incumbent Gopal Sharma –a native of over as Chief Minister in 2002 he have organized themselves to press for Rajasthan –could have been posted. probably had read the pulse carefully. more. They have got their cadre Therefore, for a while he was adjusted as Mufti's regime saw the return of the post restructured and are now asking for Security Advisor to the Chief Minister till of Chief Secretary to a native officer promotion avenues parallel to the IAS Union Home Ministry arranged a suitable after a decade long staggering gap. officers so as to reach the positions of posting for him. Second, as was the case Initially seen as a leader of Kashmir Financial Commissioners and Principal with the appointment of Chief Secretary centric vision, Mufti picked up Sudhir Secretaries to the Government. The Chief in 2006, Khoda too superseded at least Singh Bloeria –a native of Kathua district Minister recently said, “the KAS cadre has one senior officer to take over as DGP. in Jammu region –as his Chief Secretary. been re-structured creating more Therefore, Khoda's senior PS Gill –a A Kashmiri KAS officer Nayeem Akhter, promotion avenues for the local officers Punjabi –was appointed as Transport completely sidelined during NC regime, who would now be posted on important Commissioner in the rank and status of was elevated as Secretary in Chief administrative positions”. He said for the DGP. Minister's Office and another Kashmiri first time in 60 years, there were as many IAS officer Iqbal Khandey took over as as 14 local officers independently heading

While Mufti had localized the Chief Principal Secretary to CM. different departments in civil secretariat.

Minister's Secretariat and the top Their cadre strength was increased by

bureaucratic position of Chief Secretary, 130. “Steps are also taken for their At present BR Kundal –a native of Jammu his predecessor Azad has gone down to training in prestigious institutes of the is the Chief Secretary. He superceded at level of districts to see that all key country to change their outlook and least two seniors to reach the top positions are manned by the local broaden their horizon”, says the CM. bureaucratic seat in the civil officers. In some cases the merit has

secretariat. Kundal had taken over from been overlooked but the Chief Minister At present barring some key departments C Phunsog -an IAS officer from Ladakh has been selling his scheme hard which is

R E P O R T S

LAND OF RISING SONS

R E P O R T S

LAND OF RISING SONS

like Home and Finance almost all major 55 are through direct recruitment. 40 of amendment in Article 312 of the

departments are independently headed the directly recruited IAS officers of J&K Constitution of India.

by the local officers are administrative cadre are drawn from different states

secretaries. The departments directly while only 15 are native of this state. The Jammu and Kashmir Administrative connected with the people like Health, Service was initially constituted in 1962 Education, Public Works, Revenue, and re-structured in 1965 then in 1976 and The ratio of IAS officers to the local Tourism, Rural Development, Industries 1983 to broad base its cadre base by officers is already low in Jammu and etc all have local officers as adding 11 feeding services which were Kashmir. Under a special dispensation, administrative secretaries. Except for subsequently increased to 18 from the the ratio of civil services here is few officers like Khurshid Ahmed Ganai, four services in 1965. There had not been maintained on the basis of 50:50 instead the Principal Secretary GAD and any career review of the KAS since 1997. of 67:33 in other states –which means 67 Mohammad Iqbal Khandey, the Principal The KAS Officers Association took up the per cent from the All India Services and Secretary Planning and Development, issue with the government and following 33 per cent from the local services. Anil Goswami, Principal Secretary in CM this, the establishment-cum-selection Before this dispensation comes to end Office almost all administrative committee considered proposals of the this year, the Chief Minister is reported secretaries are drawn from the state GAD on career review and with the to have already written to the Prime services. Even though the political approval of Chief Minister it placed Minister for further extension in 50:50 leadership claims that the officers from recommendations before the state patterns. “Chief Minister has written to state services have been given cabinet which approved a much more Prime Minister to extend the special assignments as measure of local expanded cadre. dispensation of 50 percent quota to the empowerment but there is another All India Services in the state for a reason also which gives the local officers further period of five years”, says former The duty posts in the cadre of the service a chance to serve at top positions. As Chief Secretary C Phunsog. This, he said, have been enhanced from 318 to 406, the many as 20 out of the total 55 directly would provide an opportunity for a large number of super time scale from 5 to 10, recruited IAS officers (including those number of officers of the state service to special scale from 34 to 72 and selection from home state) are currently on get inducted into the IAS. scale from 103 to 120. This is expected to central deputation. Against the accelerate the progression of the sanctioned strength of 110, there are at members of the service on a scale never It may be mentioned here that present 96 IAS officers in Jammu and witnessed before. administration in Jammu and Kashmir Kashmir (including two probationers). continued to be manned by the local Out of these 96 officers, 43 are by officers till 1958 when All India Services Feedback : [email protected] from the state services and were first extended to this state by an


1. Place of Publication Madrasa Lane, Bathindi Top, Jammu 2. Periodicity of its publication Monthly 3. Printer’s Name

Whether Citizen of India Address

Zafar Choudhary Yes Madrasa Lane, Bathindi Top, Jammu

4. Publisher’s Name Whether Citizen of Idnia Address


5. a) Editor’s Name Whether Citizen of India Address


6. Name and Addresses of individual who own the Newspapers

Zafar Choudhary CMRD Publications and Communications Madrasa Lane, Bathindi Top, Jammu

I, Zafar Choudhary, hereby declare that the particulars given above are true to the best of my knowledge and belief. Sd/- Date : March 1, 2008 Zafar Choudhary Publisher

STATEMENT OF OWNERSHIP AND OTHER PARTICULARS OF EPILOGUE, JAMMU AS REQUIRED UNDER RULE 8 OF THE REGISTRATION OF NEWSPAPERS (CENTRAL) RULES, 1956

FORM – IV(See Rule 8)

I N F O C U S

PAKISTAN ELECTION


What was the outcome of 2008 elections ?

Who were the leading political parties ?

How did they perform in the National Assembly and the

Provincial Assemblies?

What were the results of 2002 elections and who were the

leading political parties then ?

How has the situation changed and what are the major lessons in

2008 elections?

A group of keen Pakistan watchers

D SUBA CHANDRAN,

REKHA CHAKRAVARTHI &

DEVYANI SRIVASTVA

bring the exclusive reportage and indepth analysis

on return of democracy in our neighbourhood

his is not the first election that Pakistan has voted and certainly this is unlikely to be

the last one. But, it is certainly an important one. If there is a hall of fame for Pakistan Telections, this would certainly go as the third most important in Pakistan's electoral

history after the elections of 1970 and 1988.

Why this election is important and be considered the third important one? Like the two

previous important elections of 1970 and 1988, this election also follows after a long direct

and indirect military rule. It is pertinent to underline that it was in 1970, for the first time

people of Pakistan walked to an electoral booth to directly choose their representatives.

Though the country faced a military defeat and a violent break up immediately after the

elections, Zulfikar Ali Bhutto became the undisputed leader and the first elected Prime

Minister of Pakistan. And his Pakistan's Peoples Party, the first mass based party. Though the

Muslim League existed, by 1970s, it was a pale shadow of what Jinnah had founded. Had

Jinnah been alive, it is highly unlikely whether he could have recognized the Muslim League in

the 1970s or even contested as a part of it.

Though the first elected assembly lasted its full term, the second elections only resulted in

instability, ultimately resulting in the military taking over. Zia ul Haq, Bhuto's hand picked

Chief of Army Staff, not only over threw his mentor and put him in jail, but also made sure he

never came back alive. Bhutto was hanged; along with him died the first wave of democracy in

Pakistan.

Pakistan Elections 2008

I N F O C U S

PAKISTAN ELECTION


voters for the 2008 elections would be 77 ow free and fair the elections were? million. However, according to this Election Many expected that these elections H Commission's new list, there are only 52 would be rigged, given the electoral million voters. Where did the 25 million history under Pervez Mushrraf. A Presidential voters go? election and a referendum, general elections

of 2002 and local bodies election of 2005 – all

Besides, Musharraf and the PML-Q used the of them were highly rigged in different ways.

local government functionaries effectively to

organize support for certain candidates. The The electoral process running up to 18 Nazims owe their allegiance to Musharraf to February elections – were dotted with PML-Q, for they have been created in the controversies and confusions. It all started aftermath of 2005 local elections. They were with the sacking of Iftikhar Chaudhary, the used in siphoning off the development funds Chief Justice of Pakistan in March 2007. It was to favor a particular candidate. Besides, the a clear blow to the independent nature of

political parties accused the Pakistan's judiciary and was Nazims for playing a aimed at keeping it weak decisive role in choosing the and under control. Clearly, returning and poll ing the move to gag the officers and also for judiciary was a strategy, instrumental in picking up carefully crafted to steal police officials in their the elections. With an respective constituencies. independent and impartial

Iftikhar Chaudhary leading

It was in this backdrop the the Supreme Court, it was

elections were held on essential to demolish any

February 18. However, f u t u r e j u d i c i a l

despite accusations of interventions. I f the

rigging and voters not being sacking of Chaudhary in

allowed to vote, the M a r c h 2 0 0 7 w a s a

elections were free of any beginning, Musharraf's

large-scale manipulations. arbitrary removal of 60

Thus, the polling, certainly judges from the Supreme

was relatively free and fair. and High Courts, was aimed

Even, in terms of violence, at keeping the judiciary

there were occasional weak.

events, that are generally assiocaited with

the electoral culture in South Asia. The performance of the Election Commission

of Pakistan (ECP) during the pre-election

Given the fact that Benazir Bhutto, leader of period was hardly encouraging. It was far

the PPP was assassinated in an electoral rally from being independent and impartial. The

and there were at least two suicide bombs ECP, though consisted of five members and

during the campaign by other parties as well, the Chief Election Commissioner, it was

one expected large scale violence on 18 severely handicapped. In terms of the

February. Perhaps, in one of those rare numbers, only half of the members were

occasions, Musharraf did deliver, what he had nominated. According to the 2002 elections,

promised earlier. By and large, 18 February the number of eligible voters was 72 million;

was peaceful and there were no large scale taking into account the population growth, it

violence.was expected that the number of eligible

What followed was a decade,

that sowed the seeds of all of

Pakistan's ills that it is facing

t o d a y . Z i a u l H a q

systematically attempted to

wipe off the mainstream

secular democratic parties,

especially the PPP. The

growth of religious parties,

sectarian violence, use of

jihad as foreign policy in

Afghanistan, a highly secretive

nuclear weapons programme

and the deliberate abuse of the

Durand Line – the bad list of

Pakistan's contemporary

troubles were systematically

sowed and deliberately

grown.

When the second wave of

d e m o c r a c y s t a r t e d i n

Pakistan, the trouble in

Afghanistan was far from over.

Zia was killed in air crash and

the military was in a dilemma

whether to go ahead with the

elections or proceed with

controlling the polity. Benazir

Bhutto returned to Pakistan

and led the PPP to an

outstanding victory in 1988.

The elections of 1988 were the

second most important, for it

witnessed the return of

democracy and also the return

of PPP.

2008 elections are the third

most important in Pakistan's

electoral history precisely for

the above mentioned reasons.

Nearly after a decade of direct

and indirect military rule, this

election has just witnessed

the return of democracy and

also the return of the PPP.

It was in this backdrop the

elections were held on

February 18. However,

despite accusations of rigging

and voters not being allowed

to vote, the elections were free

of any large-scale

manipulations. Thus, the

polling, certainly was

relatively free and fair.

Elections: Free and Fair?


Muslims. Members of the National minorities' seats are distributed among akistan is a federation of four Assembly and Provincial Assemblies are the parties in proportion to the overall provinces, a capital territory and P directly elected by voting in a seats secured by them. (See Table 1, 2 & federally administered tribal constituency. Women and minorities' 3) The Election Commission of Pakistan areas. At the national level, Pakistan

elects a bicameral legislature – the

Parliament of Pakistan – which comprises

of a President and two Houses – a 100-

member Senate and a 342-member

National Assembly whose members are

chosen by elected provincial legislators.

The Prime Minister of Pakistan is elected

by the National Assembly, while the

President is elected by the Electoral

College of Pakistan consisting of both

houses of Parliament together with the

provincial assemblies. The National

Assembly draws its seats from Islamabad

– the federal capital, Balochistan, NWFP,

Punjab, Sindh, and the Federally

Administered Tribal Areas (FATA).

Figure 1: Provinces of Pakistan

(Map modified. Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/

Image:Pakistan_New_Provinces.gif

The Senate consists of 100 members

including 17 seats reserved for women & 17

seats reserved for technocrats and Ulema.

The National Assembly consists of 342

seats from Islamabad (Federal Capital),

Punjab, Sindh, NWFP, the Federally

Administered Tribal Agencies (FATA) and seats in the National Assembly are (ECP) is responsible for conducting free Balochistan including 60 seats reserved calculated in accordance with the and fair elections. The ECP is constituted for women and 10 seats for non-Muslims. formula given in the Constitution. The by the President and consists of five The Provincial Assemblies consists of 728 parties are given women seats in members – a retired Supreme Court seats including 128 seats reserved for proportion to the general seats won in justice and a serving high court judge women and 23 seats reserved for non- each province. The 10 reserved from each province.

I N F O C U S

PAKISTAN ELECTION

Table 1: Number of Seats for Senate Seats reserved for Province/Area General Seats

Women Technocrats and Ulema

Total

Federal Capital 2 1 1 4

Punjab 14 4 4 22

Sindh 14 4 4 22

NWFP 14 4 4 22

FATA 8 - - 8

Balochistan 14 4 4 22

Total 66 17 17 100

(Source: http://www.elections.com.pk/contents.php?i=9#Senate)

Table 2: Number of Seats for National Assembly

Seats reserved for Province/Area General Seats

Women Non Muslims

Total

Federal Capital 2 - 2

Punjab 148 35 183

Sindh 61 14 75

NWFP 35 8 43

FATA 12 - 12

Balochistan 14 3

10

17

Total 272 60 10 332+10=342

(Source: http://www.elections.com.pk/contents.php?i=9#National)

Table 3: Number of Seats for Provincial Assemblies

Seats reserved for Province General Seats

Women Non Muslims

Total

Punjab 297 66 8 371

Sindh 130 29 9 168

NWFP 99 22 3 124

Balochistan 51 11 3 65

Total 577 128 23 728

(Source: http://www.elections.com.pk/contents.php?i=9#Provincial)

National and Provincial Assemblies : An Overview


n the 2002 elections, the PML-Q gained

maximum number of seats and formed the Igovernment with allies including the MQM

and MMA. Like the 2008 elections, no party won

a majority even in the 2002 elections. The PML-

Q bagged 76 seats, the PPP won 62, MMA 45,

PML-N 14, and independents won 26. The PML-Q

secured 17 reserved seats for women in the

National Assembly and 26 seats in the Punjab

Assembly, PPP won 14 and 16 seats while the

PML-N got 3 and 9 seats. Elections in 2002 were

considered largely rigged with Musharraf and

the PML-Q resorting to unfair tactics thereby

reducing the chances of PPP and PML-N in

gaining a majority.

I N F O C U S

PAKISTAN ELECTION

witnessed the exit of the religious parties' alliance – the he lower house of Pakistan's Parliament has 342 seats, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA) from 59 seats in the NA to a out of which 272 were directly elected by the people T mere 7 seats and this, in fact, has been the greatest from four provinces, Islamabad and FATA. On 18 achievement of the 2008 elections. Maulana Fazlur Rahman, February, elections were held in 268 constituencies out of the

total 272; in those four provinces elections have been leader of the Jamait-e-Ulema-e-Islami lost the one seat he was

postponed due to excessive violence and the death of contesting; the defeat of MMA has resulted in the party losing candidates. Of these two belong to the tribal areas and the control in NWFP and Balochistan provincial assemblies. other two were Larkana and Lahore-II. While the large-scale

violence in FATA region has resulted in the postponement in the The Muttahida Quami Movement (MQM) won 19 general seats,

first two, assassination of Benazir Bhutto and the killing of a all from Sindh, and the Awami National Party won 10 seats in

PML-N candidate have resulted in postponing the elections in NWFP thereby promising a much needed peace and stability that Larkana and Lahore-II respectively.were denied to the province during the reign on the MMA.

Out of these 268 constituencies, the

Pakistan People's Party (PPP) emerged as

the single largest party winning 88 seats

from all the four provinces. The Pakistan

Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) has emerged

as the second largest party in the NA with 67

seats to its credit. The King's Party (PML-Q),

that gained the maximum numbers of seats

in the 2002 elections, suffered a crushing

defeat with almost the entire previous

cabinet – including 22 former ministers –

facing humiliating losses.

The PML-Q managed to win just 41 seats in

the National Assembly. The elections also

National Assembly Party Position

118

80

59

18 175

1.47%4.78%5.15%

16.54%

23.16%

33.82%

PML-Q PPP MMA PML-N MQM PLM-F

No. of Seats (incl reserved seats) % of Seats Won

National Assembly Party Position

113

84

55

2514

7 5

33

9.70%

1.50%2.30%3.80%

7.20%

15.50%

25.30%

33.20%

PPP

PML-

N

PML-

QM

QM

ANP

MM

A

PML-

F

Ind/O

ther

s

No. of Seats (incl reserved seats) % of Seats Won

2002 Elections: An Overview

Who Voted for Whom?


The polls had predicted 12 per cent vote other hand PML-N scored massive election has had a pro-democratic

leaning, with the PPP and the PML-N for the PML-Q, 22 per cent for the PML-N, victories in most of Punjab.

performing better than they did in the and 50 per cent for the PPP. While the 2002 elections. However, a closer PPP's vote bank looks impressive, it is far At the outset, looking at the trends from analysis reveals that the 2008 elections from what was predicted and on the 2002 and 2008, it is clear that the present have been more anti-Musharraf and anti-

MMA than reflecting a complete

democratic stance with no single party

securing a majority.

The biggest triumph of the 2008 elections

has been the fall of religious extremists

(MMA) from 59 seats in 2002 to a skimpy 7

seats in 2008. The Taliban movement in

Pakistan has been vetoed by the people;

consequently does this mean the end of

Islamism in Pakistan? The Awami National

Party, on the other hand, has allied with

the PPP to form a government in the

much troubled NWFP. Owing to its secular

stance the ANP appears, at least for now,

to be the biggest winner this election.

PPP: Back in Action

fter the assassination of Benazir

Bhutto, the PPP was predicted to Awin 50 per cent of the seats

considering the pro-Benazir sympathy

wave that the party had intended to cash

on. Though the results did not place the

PPP as an undisputed political party,

February 18 election has certainly

revived its clout in all the four provinces.

Consider the following figures.

The PPP has won 45 seats in Punjab. It is

certainly a record, considering its

performance in Punjab during the last

three or four elections. In 1997 and 2002

elections, the PPP performed very badly

in Punjab. In fact, many considered that

the PPP was totally wiped off from

Punjab, given its declining electoral

strength. February 18, has certainly

changed the trend for the PPP. It has got

PPP back into business in Punjab.

Besides winning 45 seats for the National

Assembly from Punjab, it has also won 77

I N F O C U S

PAKISTAN ELECTION

80

113

18

84

118

55

1725

59

714

PPP PML-N PML-Q MQM MMA ANP

Major Political Parties - No. of Seats Won

Year 02 Year 08

23.16%

33.20%

5.15%

25.30%

33.82%

15.50%

4.78%

7.20%

16.54%

2.30%

1.13%

3.80%

PPP PML-N PML-Q MQM MMA ANP

Major Political Parties - % of Seats Won

Year 02 Year 08

Total Votes Secured Party

2002 2008

PPP 7,277,794 10,588,168

PML-N 3,314,603 6,759,711

PML-Q 7,567,753 7,901,492

MQM 926,116 2,571,184

MMA 3,329,325 751,087

ANP 324,649 699,517


seats for the Punjab provincial Assembly. Besides, the PPP has also won 66 seats for PPP has emerged the second largest

In fact, the PPP is the second largest the Sindh Provincial Assembly, out of the party in the NWFP provincial assembly

party today in the Punjab provincial total 125 seats. The PPP can form a with 18 seats. The ANP has secured

assembly after the PML-N. Nawaz's PML-N government on its own Sindh. It has maximum seats – 29 for the provincial

has won 102 seats for the Punjab almost bulldozed the PML-Q from Sindh. assembly.

provincial assembly, followed by PPP's The former rulers could manage only 5

64. PML-Q, which ruled Punjab could seats for the National Assembly and 10 In Balochistan, the largest province of secure only 64 seats for the provincial for the Sindh provincial assembly. Pakistan, but with smallest number of assembly. seats for the National Assembly, the PPP

In NWFP, PPP's performance is certainly has emerged the most successful. Of the

In Sindh, the PPP has emerged as the laudatory, given the declining support in total 14 seats reserved for the National

undisputed leader in rural areas. Though the recent elections and also the fact Assembly, the PPP has won four seats,

Sherpao faction has made a considerable while the PML-Q has won only three and the PPP has failed to make a dent in

dent in its electoral strength. the MMA two. Besides, the PPP has also urban Sindh, especially Karachi, the

won seven seats for the Balochistan party has managed to secure 29 seats for provincial assembly.the National Assembly, out of the total 61 In 2008, out of the total 35 seats for the

seats. If the elections are held for National Assembly from the NWFP, the Larkana, one is sure it would increase the PPP has secured ten seats, equaling the Certainly, with 88 seats from all over tally to 30. Thus winning half of the total record of the Awami National Party Pakistan, the resurgence of the PPP is the seats allocated for the National Assembly (ANP), which has also secured the same most successful story of February 2008 from Sindh. number of seats. More importantly, the elections.

I N F O C U S

PAKISTAN ELECTION

PML-N: The Brothers Strike Back

or the Sharif brothers, it was as if the history was repeating

in Punjab almost after ten years. In 1997, the Sharif brothers Fled the PML-N to an unprecedented victory in the electoral

history of Pakistan. Consider the 1997 figures: The PML-N secured

137 seats for the National Assembly from all the four provinces. In

Punjab it won almost 60 percent of the total votes polled resulting

in becoming the undisputed party at the national level, relegating

the PPP to a regional force in Sindh.

In 2002, however, the situation totally changed for the Sharif

brothers. They were exiled and they saw their party being

manipulated and split by Pervez Musharraf, then the Chief of Army

Staff and the President of Pakistan. The result was even more

spectacular. In 2002 elections, the Sharif brothers lost Punjab and

also lost their own party! The PML-N could secure only 19 seats for

the National Assembly. The PML-N, undoubtedly, was resurrected

back into Pakistan politics winning almost 4 times more than it did

in 2002. Fading back into pavilion with just 18 seats in 2002,

Nawaz Sharif's PML-N secured 84 seats in total. More importantly,

the PML-N has won 102 seats for the Punjab provincial assembly

and thus being in an ideal position to form the next government

there. Thus the non-performance of the PML-N in Sindh and

Balochistan, has been sort of compensated with its better

performance in Punjab. Both in Sindh and Balochistan, the PML-N

had failed to win even a single seat for the National Assembly,

though it has won four seats from the NWFP.

MMA: Fall of the Religious Elements

f PPP and PML-N are two great success stories of 2008

election, the MMA along with the PML-Q are the two great Ifailures. A non-entity electorally, but with significant

street power, the rise of religious political parties under the

banner of Mutahida Majlis-e-Amal was spectacular in 2002

elections. For the very first time in the electoral history of

Pakistan, the religious parties were able to secure 16 percent

of the total votes polled for the National Assembly. In terms of

seats, it was translated into 59 seats in the Parliament, thus

becoming the opposition party, again for the first time in the

history of Pakistan. What is even more spectacular after the

2002 elections, was the fact the religious parties were able to

form governments in two provinces – NWFP, on their own and in

Balochistan along with the PML-Q.

The fall of MMA, in 2008 elections was as spectacular as its rise

after in 2002. The fall of the MMA, in fact started much before

the 2008 elections. The decline had in fact started when the

two major components of the MMA – Jamaat-e-Islami led by

Qazi Hussain Ahmed and the JUI led by Fazlur Rehman,

developed differences amongst them. Ironically, the reason

was Pervez Musharraf. Qazi Husaain Ahmed wanted to

withdraw the support of the MMA in the National Assembly,

when Musharraf failed to give up his uniform in 2006. Qazi

wanted the MMA to resign both from the National Assembly and


I N F O C U S

PAKISTAN ELECTION

also from the NWFP, whereas Fazlur

Rehman was against that idea.

After the sacking of Iftikhar Chaudhary

and the beginning of the entire judicial

crisis in Pakistan, Qazi wanted to boycott

the elections, unless the judiciary was

restored to its pre-March 2007 position.

When JUI-F decided to go ahead with

taking part in elections, the MMA of 2002

was almost dead. The February 18

elections only finalized the formalities.

Fazlur Rehman seriously mis-calculated

the popular mood in the NWFP. Give the

fact the pashtun community was

extremely angry with the ongoing War

against Terrorism and upset with Pervez

Musharraf, he expected his party had a

good chance to repeat the 2002

performance, at least in the NWFP.

Besides the above two factors, he was

also aware the frontier province was

brimming with anti-US feelings, which he

was sure would get converted into votes

for his JUI-F. Those anti-Musharraf and

anti-US feelings did convert into votes;

unfortunately not for the MMA, but for

the ANP, the secular and moderate

political party.

Consider the following numbers, for it

would tell the tale of a mighty fall. From

59 seats in 2002 elections, the MMA could

only secure only five seat for the National

Assembly – three from NWFP and two from

Balochistan. Had the regional political

parties in Balochistan decided to take

part in the elections, the MMA would not

have secured those two seats also from

there. For the provincial assembly of

NWFP, the MMA could secure only 8 seats,

gaining less than one sixth of what it got

in 2002 election.

The fact that Maluana Fazlur Rahman lost

the election in Dera Ismail Khan in NWFP

itself will tell the story of how the

fortunes of the MMA have turned this

time.

he Punjab Assembly has

maximum seats in Pakistan T- 371, including 8 seats

reserved for non-Muslims and 66

for women. Punjab province also

holds the key for the National

Assembly with 183 seats

including 35 reserved for women.

Punjab determines which

political party will form the

government in Islamabad and this

is mainly due to the huge

d i spar i ty in the s ize of

populations in the four provinces.

Punjab alone accounts for 55 per

cent of seats; when compared

with it, Sindh accounts only for 25

per cent, while NWFP and

Balochistan account for 15 per

cent and 5 per cent respectively.

Punjab has been the hub of power

in Pakistan; in the 1970s, the PPP

and the Muslim League were the

two dominating parties, while in

1997, the PML under Nawaz Sharif

emerged as the single dominant stellar performance in Punjab. party in Punjab completely eclipsing

the PPP.In 2002, the PML-Q swept through Punjab

winning 131 seats in the provincial In 2002, the Muslim League split into assembly elections securing Musharraf's PML-Q and PML-N and so did the pro-Establishment PML-Q a hearty win votes in Punjab. The PML-Q won 131 whereas in 2008 Punjab voted against seats out of the 297. The PML-Q won Establishment. The PML-Q managed to 68 general seats from Punjab win only 68 seats in the Punjab Assembly whereas the PPP won 35 general in the current elections. seats from Punjab and PML-N won

PML-N, contrary to pre-poll predictions, just 14 general seats from Punjab.

scored massive victories in most of The trend has changed again in

Punjab enabling it to emerge as the 2008, with both the PPP and PML-Q

second largest party with 67 general securing 79 and 104 assembly seats

seats in the National Assembly. PML-N and 45 and 59 out of 147 seats in the

won 104 seats in the Punjab Assembly as National Assembly. Nawaz's fierce

compared to the 2002 elections wherein anti-establishment stance and the

it barely managed to win 38 seats and a PPP's party manifesto of being pro-

total of 18 seats in the National poor including the pro-Benazir

Assembly. sympathy wave resulted in their

2008 Provincial Assembly Elections

MMA, 2

Ind/Others, 35

PML-Q, 68

PPP, 79

PML-N, 104


PML-Q, 131

MMA, 9

Ind/Others, 40 PML-N, 38

PPP, 62

Provincial Roundup-I

Punjab: Return of the Brothers

I N F O C U S

PAKISTAN ELECTION


provincial assembly and 19 seats for the indh, in terms of seat for the National Assembly. However, the winning Na t i ona l and p rov inc i a l S streak of the MQM is limited only to urban assemblies, is the second largest Sindh, especially Karachi. In rural Sindh, it in Pakistan. It has 61 elected seats for is yet to make an impact. 17 of its 19 seats the National Assembly and 125 for the for the National Assembly has been won in provincial assembly. In 2002, the PML-2008 from Karachi. Even for the Sindh Q was able to get a sizeable number of

provincial assembly, out of the total 42 seats – both for the provincial and

national assemblies from Sindh. seats it has won, 35 are from Karachi. The

MQM, certainly could be called the King of

Karachi. On the contrary, the PML-Q was Following the assassination of Benazir ousted in Sindh with just 10 seats in the Bhutto, PPP emerged as the single provincial assembly in spite of the fact largest party in the Sindh assembly that it ruled the province prior to the winning 68 seats. PPP also won the elections in alliance with the MQM and most National Assembly seats in the PML-F. Sindh province with 29 seats. The

Mohajir Quami Movement (MQM) led

by Altaf Hussain, living in exile in PPP's performance was no surprise since London was able to repeat its 2002 the party was predicted to win with huge performance. In fact, it is the only margins when compared to other parties

party among the ruling coalition, because of the sympathy wave triggered

which has succeeded in retaining the by Benazir's assassination. The PML-N national and provincial levels.seats it had in 2002. Both the PML-Q failed to win even a single seat while the

and MMA which ruled respective ANP won 2 seats. The Jamaat-e-Islami (JI)

provinces failed miserably both at The MQM secured 38 seats for the Sindh boycotted the elections.


PPP, 68

PML-Q, 10

MQM, 38

ANP, 2


PPP, 51

PML-Q, 11MMA, 8

MQM, 32

seats. The MMA which had won 12 seats in as compared to the 2 seats in 2002 alochistan proved to be the PML-the 2002 elections managed to win only 7 provincial elections. Similar to the Q's saving grace in 2008 elections B seats this time. The PPP made its NWFP, independents emerged as the wherein the party emerged as the comeback in Balochistan winning 7 seats second largest group securing 11 seats. single largest party bagging 18 of the 51

PPP 7

PML-Q 18

ANP 2

MMA 7


PPP 2

PML-Q 11

MMA 13


Provincial Roundup-II

Sindh: The Land of Bhuttos

Provincial Roundup-III

Balochistan : Saving PML-Q’s Grace


n terms of seats, NWFP is the third largest. It has 35 seats

for the National Assembly and 99 seats for the NWFP Iprovincial assembly.

In 2008, the most stunning victory was for the ANP in NWFP

followed by the PPP, thereby ousting the MMA. The ANP won 31

seats for the provincial assembly as compared to 10 seats it

won in 2002 elections. The independents, with 20 seats,

emerged as the

second largest group

in the assembly. The

PML-N retained its

number winning 5

seats in both 2008

and 2002 elections

while the PML-Q was

one down with 5

seats as compared to

its 6 seats in 2002.

The PPP rose from 8

seats in 2002 to win

17 in the current

assembly elections,

thereby emerging as

the second largest

p a r t y i n t h e

province. The six-

p a r t y r e l i g i o u s

a l l i a n c e ( M M A )

s u f f e r e d a

humiliating defeat in the province with just 10 seats, while it

ruled the roost with 46 seats in 2002 provincial elections. It was

comeback time for both the ANP and the PPP in the province,

signifying reform and stability in the region.

The ANP regained in its former strongholds of Peshawar,

Nowshera, Charsadda and also won all the seats in Swat

and Buner district. The PPP also gained in Peshawar,

Nowshera, Upper Dir, Lower Dir and Malakand. JI's

boycotting of the elections confined the competition

between the ANP and the PPP in the province. Both the

parties secured 10 seats out of the 35 National Assembly

seats in the province. Adding more fuel to the fire was JUI-

F leader Maulana Fazlur Rehman's loss to a PPP candidate in

his home constituency of Dera Ismail Khan.

I N F O C U S

PAKISTAN ELECTION

PPP 8PML-N 5 PML-Q 6

ANP 10

MMA 46


PPP 17

PML-N 5

PML-Q 5

ANP 31

MMA 10

No. of Seats


Provincial Roundup-IV

NWFP: Re-emergence of

the Regional Forcesebruary 18 was only a beginning. Pakistan has a long

way to go. Much would depend on how the leading Fpolitical parties – PPP and PML-N would respond to

each other and rise to the occasion. Following a period of

deadlock and hard negotiations immediately after the

elections, the PPP and the PML-N agreed to form a coalition

government at the national level. With 84 seats of the PNL-N

and 113 seats of the PPP, the two parties together enjoy a

substantial majority in the national assembly; the PML-Q –

which has emerged as the biggest loser in the election – is the

third largest party in the assembly, thereby constituting the

main opposition. Amidst a rare atmosphere of camaraderie,

the two parties have resolved resolve to work towards

strengthening democracy in Pakistan. They further pledged

to not cooperate with any pro-Musharraf parties or religious

parties within Pakistan.

The coming together of the two biggest parties of Pakistan,

who were till date each other's biggest rival, is a moment of

historic significance. Strong mistrust has marked their

political relations since 1988 and both have used the military

to oust the other party in power. Zardari spent eight years in

prison under Sharif facing charges of murder and corruption.

The two parties have decided to put their old politics behind

and “work together to uphold the democratic values and

traditions and the supremacy of the judiciary.” However, the

two parties have to cover a large distance between them.

While a common goal of strengthening the democratic forces

within Pakistan has united the two parties, significant

differences persist on their stand on some of the important

national issues.

The Torturous Roads Ahead

The foremost issue is that of establishing and strengthening

democratic forces within Pakistan. While both the parties are

committed to fighting for democracy in Pakistan, there are

fundamental differences in the philosophical thrust of their

understanding of democracy. According to the PML-N, “true

democracy is based on a sovereign parliament, independent

judiciary and free and fair electoral process.” Accordingly, the

PML-N adopts an institutional approach towards strengthening

democracy in Pakistan – it calls upon re-establishing the

supremacy of the parliament, restoring an independent

judiciary, ensuring maximum provincial autonomy through

Challenge 1:

Revival of Democracy and Restoring Judiciary


decentralisation of administrative and other hand lays greater emphasis on an postpone it indefinitely by restoring the

financial powers and limiting the role of economic policy driven by the market judges. Political analysts of Pakistan

the armed forces as laid out in Pakistan's forces and the businessmen. posit that the party's attitude towards

constitution. The strategy of the party is the judiciary in general and the deposed

to work as a bulwark against the judges in particular is based on its These differing values and priorities military. The PPP on the other hand historical experience. have already begun to create ripples unde r s t and s democ racy a s a between the two parties in their various “commitment to freedom and However, since the issue enjoys demands. The judicial crisis of Pakistan fundamental rights, including freedom tremendous civil society support, it is since the launch of the lawyer's from hunger and want.” likely that the PML-N will get its way on movement in March last year and the

this issue, especially considering that issue of restoring an independent The PPP aims at creating a just and the Supreme Court Bar Association judiciary has evoked different equ i tab le soc ie ty w i th equa l (SCBA) president, Mr Aitzaz Ahsan, has reactions within the two parties. opportunity for all its citizens. It regards given the two mainstream parties the

the guarantee of the fundamental and task of reinstating the judges before 8 The PML-N has been very aggressive in its

basic rights of every citizen as its prime March, or else face a Long March of demand for reinstating of the deposed

objective, and therefore commits itself lawyers and civil society activists to judges and has pledged to initiate a

to the principle of 5 E's – employment, Islamabad against them. Notwithstanding number of reforms of the judicial system

education, energy, environment and the lawyers euphoria, the matter is also that include among others reform in the

equality. In political science parlance tricky on legal grounds for since the appointment of judges. The main

therefore, the PML-N adopts a 'top- lawyers consider the emergency order of 3 driving factor behind the PML-N's

down' approach to reform whereas the November as invalid for it was validated by insistence on the deposed judge's issue is

PPP symbolises the 'bottoms-up' an invalid Supreme Court, analysts have to get the President ousted by a

approach. This fundamental difference pointed out that the new National reinstated Supreme Court. This has put

in democratic values underlines their Assembly is to take oath under the tremendous pressure on the PPP whose

economic objectives as well. For the constitution with a new article added stand on the deposed judge's issue has

PPP, “social policy objectives drive during the time of emergency. This raises been at best ambiguous.

economic policy whereby development questions over the validity of the new

shall be measured in terms of welfare of national assembly, and is likely to create The PPP would rather seek a the people rather than in terms of flutter between the parties in the days to constitutional solution to the crisis than financial statistics.” The PML-N on the come.

I N F O C U S

PAKISTAN ELECTION

the President, or else face an oving ahead, another thorny impeachment. issue between the two parties is Mthe role of the army and the

future of President Musharraf. The PML-N The PPP on the other hand has been more

has been vociferous in its critique of the open to working with President Musharraf

role of the military in weakening especially after he abdicated the post of

Pakistan's democratic institutions in the chief of army staff.

past eight years including the

parliament, the judiciary and the The PPP wants to first form the electoral process. Nawaz Sharif has government and then take up the issues demanded the resignation of President in Parliament. Dismissing the idea of Musharraf on the ground that election impeaching the President, the Vice-results have proven the unpopularity of Chairman of PPP, Makhdoom Amin Fahim,

Challenge 2:

What to do with Musharraf?


h e n e x t

c on ten t i ou s Tissue between

the two parties is

likely to be the fight

against terrorism and

militancy in Pakistan.

T h e P M L - N h a s

ind icated a few

measures to fight

m i l i t a n c y t h a t

includes 'the use of force against the foreign and local terrorists and

strengthening of the law enforcement agencies.' In addition, it has

not ruled out 'a process of political engagement in the tribal areas in

order to win the hearts and minds of the people.'

The PPP on the other hand while has not enumerated any strategy for

fighting militancy directly, has stressed on a number of reforms

intended to fight the forces of terrorism such as madrassah reforms,

FATA reforms, police reforms, and prison reforms. Analysts have

pointed out that this election presents a unique opportunity to defeat

terrorism for the main problem with the military operations in

Pakistan's northwest and the tribal areas was that it lacked political

legitimacy. The Daily times reported that the wide disagreement

between the civilian leaders and the military on the course of action

against militancy had a deep demoralising effect on the soldiers'

morale.

The newly appointed government along with the moderate chief of

army staff General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani have a golden opportunity to

combine the political and military forces to fight militancy in

Pakistan.

oreign Policy is likely to be another area of

concern. The main thrust of the PML-N's foreign Fpolicy is strengthening of Pakistan's defences in

order to maintain peace and stability in the region, and

establishment of political and civilian control over

Pakistan's foreign policy. It is worthwhile to recall that

Pakistan acquired nuclear weapons under Sharif's rule. It

is therefore likely that the party will press for a national

security state. While the party also stresses upon

strengthening relations with other developing countries

of Asia, Africa and Latin America, there is no mention of

the United States. The US itself is not very comfortable

with the resurrection of Sharif to power mainly because

of his party's bleak record in the past. For instance, one

of the last acts of the PML-N before the military coup in

99 was to try to impose shariah law.

Moreover, he is also believed to have regular contact with

Osama bin laden and other Saudi terrorist outfits through

the 1990s. It is perhaps for this reason that Afghanistan

also does not find a mention in the party's foreign policy

objectives. The PPP on the other hand underlines good

friendly relations with Afghanistan, India, Iran and the

Peoples Republic of China as well with the USA, Canada,

European Union, Japan and the Commonwealth. Special

mention is made of Afghanistan where the PPP envisages

a policy of non-interference in Afghanistan's internal

affairs and a strict check on cross-border terrorism into

Pakistan. The main thrust of PPP's foreign policy is

strengthening of social and economic ties with Pakistan's

neighbours.

I N F O C U S

PAKISTAN ELECTION

stated that the transition of power from administration. Besides, there will be corruption case against Zardari that had

the military to civilian must be gradual. tremendous pressure from the western been stalled last year following

countries to retain Musharraf in the reconciliation between Bhutto and

scene. Musharraf. Such tactics reveal that This issue could push the government in a Musharraf is likely to play on differences crisis for, apart from the demand of the between the two parties and create PML-N, President Musharraf himself has However, the popular sentiment in friction between them. At the same not given any inclination of stepping Pakistan is clearly against Musharraf and time, it also might have the unintended down. Although the election verdict has the new government cannot ignore the effect of pushing the two parties closer clearly rejected his policies and his public opinion. Moreover, post-elections, together. Zardari for instance might take supporters, Musharraf still holds Musharraf has resorted to using pressure a stronger stance against Musharraf considerable sway in the political system tactic against a united front and as a following the reopening of the case. of Pakistan, be it in the army, or the result has reinvigorated a Swiss

Challenge 3 :

Jihad against JihadChallenge 4

Foreign Policy


n the NWFP, the Awami National is important that the newly formed enough to form a government on its own,

Party (ANP) under the leadership of government focus more on its social and but has opted to form a coalition along IMr Asfandyar Wali Khan emerged as economic agenda rather than trying to with Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM)

led by Altaf Hussain that won 38 seats. The the single largest party with 31 seats out create a sub-national identity within

main motivating factor behind such a of the 96 contested where as the PPP thte fold of national unity.

coalition for the PPP is that it wants to secured the second highest with 17

take the MQM along in order to ensure seats. The two parties have reportedly In Balochistan, despite having been peace in Sindh and create new economic agreed on a power-sharing arrangement virtually routed in three provinces, the opportunities. The MQM on its part has in NWFP with the former taking the Pakistan Muslim League-Q (PML-Q) led by pledged to be a part of the democratic chief minister's position and the latter Chaudhary Shujjat Hussain has emerged process in Pakistan. Since its inception (as getting the offices of senior minister as the largest single party in the a student movement in the University of and speaker of the provincial assembly. Balochistan assembly, bagging 17 of 51 Karachi in 1978, and subsequently The PML-N who has secured five seats is seats. The performance of the PML-Q in converting into a political party in 1997), also likely to be a part of the coalition. Sindh can be attributed to the boycott of the party has enjoyed large support With this verdict, the religious alliance elections called by the Balochistan among the urdu-speaking population of of Muttahida Majlis-i-Amal (MMA) has nationalist parties including the Sindh. This election, the party launched a Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party. It is yet suffered a crushing defeat (partly due to pro-poor manifesto, similar to the PPP, not clear whether the party will form the the boycott of elections by one of its targeting the downtrodden masses at the government on its own or enter into a member party, the Jama'at-e-Islami and national level with a special focus on coalition with the PPP as the latter is partly due to the anti-incumbency improving the social and economic divided on the issue of cooperation with factor), and the people have rejected

a 'pro-Musharraf' party. The party's condition of Sindh. the rule of the mullah. Upholding the manifesto revolves around 5 D's namely verdict of the people in favour of Democracy, Development, Devolution, Pashtun nationalism, the ANP has The party has further called for “complete Diversity and Defence. promised to change the name of the provincial autonomy, elimination of

feudal system, religious militancy and NWFP province to Pakhtoonkhwa. The

extremism and promised to work for ANPs objective and priorities are similar It has remained silent on the crucial issue

provision of jobs, reduction in poverty of restoring of an independent judiciary to that of PPP. For instance, the ANP is in through various measures, reforms in and underlines an independent foreign favour of a strong federal structure and education, health sectors and reforms in policy for Pakistan where no foreign provincial autonomy and has promised madarasah and agriculture sector.” country has the right to interfere in to grant equal rights to all units within Despite a similarity in the objectives with Pakistan's internal affairs. The PML-Q the province. It has pledged action for the PPP, an alliance between them is likely faces tremendous challenge in the promot ion of democracy, to be precarious for various reasons. For Balochistan not only due to the strong establishment of independent judiciary, one, some of the newly-elected legislators anti-incumbency factor against the party freedom of media, abolition of poverty, of PPP in Sindh are against any but also because the party has suffered protection of human rights and socio-cooperation with the MQM primarily due many defections over the past few days. economic and political development. to the excesses it committed against the Many of its elected legislators are Moreover, it also supports the party in the last five years. Second, the reportedly looking out for other parties. strengthening of relations with India, party was part of the federal government The PPP on its part might be persuaded China and The US. It has spoken out of Musharraf and therefore faces the anti-to cooperate with the PML-Q in order to

strongly against Islamic militancy and Musharraf sentiment. And lastly, the MQM create considerable leeway for itself vis-

supports the war on terror. While ANP's has gain notoriety over the years for its à-vis the PML-N in the National Assembly.

victory in the northwest is an important involvement in terrorist activities step in the direction of a democratic, especially in Karachi. These factors could

In Sind, the PPP has won enough a secular Pakistan, it must not be flagged create friction in the alliance, but since staggering 65 seats of total 130 seats, as a validation of Pashtun nationalism. It the PPP enjoys a clear majority in the

I N F O C U S

PAKISTAN ELECTION

Challenge 5

Sharing Power in Provinces

ARE YOU MISSING YOUR

EARLIER STORIES ?

Write to [email protected]


July 2007Policy Failure

June 2007Looking Beyond “K”

May 2007Peace Process

April 2007PDP-Congress Coalition

Schism

March 2007 Baglihar

February 2007The Promise Ahead

January 2007Book of the year


Sindh assembly, the MQM has little Pakistan, the PML-N has a powerful Above all, the reputation of the Pakistani

leeway in the alliance. bargaining card at the centre. state is perhaps at its lowest possible in a

long time and the new government must

at once shoulder the responsibility of In Punjab, Pakistan Muslim League-N The 2008 elections have gone strongly in regaining its lost legitimacy. It is very has emerged as the single largest party favour of the democratic process in important for the two parties as well as in the Punjab assembly by securing 102 Pakistan with the liberal, moderate

seats out of 292 seats with the Pakistan the regional parties to rise above their parties gaining a resounding victory. The People's Party and PML-Q trailing behind personal vendettas and vote bank politics PPP in particular has performed well with 78 and 66 seats. The PML-N has and work together for a common goal. The across Pakistan whereas the PML-N has largely gained votes due to the strong people of Pakistan have given the political resurged in Punjab. However, it must be anti-incumbency factor against the parties a unique opportunity to build a noted here that these two parties that former government, the sympathy wave strong, democratic and liberal Pakistan, are set to forma coalition at the centre for Bhutto and pro-democratic forces, and they must not let this historical have been out of power for almost a and to some extent, due to the Jama'at-

moment slip by. decade now. Moreover, they are going to e-Islami boycotting the election,

inherit a crumbling economy with shifting a small percentage of the right-

soaring fuel and energy prices and high of-centre vote in the urban areas to the Feedback :rate of unemployment. Pakistan's tribal PML-N. The PML-Ns manifesto has [email protected] are in dire need of immediate already been discussed. However, it is [email protected] to tackle the growing strength of important to state here that Punjab [email protected] Islamic extremists. being the most important province for

I N F O C U S

PAKISTAN ELECTION


thWith the results of the 18 February change is questionable as the largest to the demands of the day. This will general elections there has been much elected party the PPP is showing itself to determine whether Pakistan will finally be celebration as the “return of be all too keen to accept a government wrestled away from the grips of the democracy” in Pakistan has been with General Musharraf at its helm. This military and retuned to the people. The heralded. Apparently there has been a undoubtedly implies an acceptance of future of the country hangs in the balance. great upheaval, a democratic revolution many of the president's hugely unpopular of sorts which has unseated the king's policies and casts doubt on their ability Whither Kashmir? party replacing it with fervently anti- to initiate many of the much needed Musharraf leaders. The Pakistan Peoples changes for which they were elected and

Kashmir has been such an all pervasive Party (PPP) has surfaced as a truly indeed capitalized on in their election

part of Pakistan's state policy that it is national force winning a substantial campaign. Apparently democratic

often said to be a part of Pakistan's number of seats in all provinces and the policies of “Depoliticizing the military”

national identity. Yet the Kashmir issue centre. This is a heartening sign for the and removing military officials from

was conspicuous for its absence in the future of provincial cohesion which has civilian positions that are being hailed

election campaign. This lack of attention eluded Pakistan as of late. Other today were also propounded in the late to Kashmir has been a hallmark of the prominent parties such as the Muslim 80's when it is widely excepted now that Musharraf government which all but cut League-Nawaz have also managed to the military continued its rule from off ISI support to the previously heavily make their mark with their agenda of behind the scenes throughout the bolstered freedom fighters and washed his the restoration of the judiciary. The “democratic” rule in the 1990's with the hands of the UN resolution on Kashmir. response of the voters to such issue bureaucracy acting as its henchman. This dramatic change in policy stems based politics is an encouraging sign in a Thus, true political independence cannot perhaps from the presidents desire to be country where voting has more often be attained without a major harnessing of seen as “a man of peace” but a closer look been done on the basis of parochial the militaries ever increasing economic at the issue betrays a strategic distancing identities or under the influence of interests that create the impetus for its on the part of the military which political patronage. The distancing from political maneuvering and provide previously used Kashmir as a justification these trends is perhaps a result of incentive for the formation of a for its high budget allocations and stake in increasing urbanization and the bureaucratic-military nexus. state policy. With the war on terror taking weakening of caste and clan based ties center stage Kashmir is no longer needed

to serve this propagandist purpose. What and bodes well for an increasingly Moreover, despite jumping through the is surprising is that political leaders did conscientious voter base that is integral familiar hoops of democratic procedures not pick on this policy change when they in any truly democratic system. such as elections the attainment of a so eagerly capitalized on all other acts of truly substantive democracy that is the Musharraf regime. In part the

Amidst all this few have questioned responsive to the actual plight of the burgeoning food, electricity and internal

whether the soon to be formed people will require a long and sustained security crisis is to blame, which took the

government will actually be able to process of electoral politics that will lime light away from Kashmir and other

throw off the yoke of military control create an atmosphere of political pressing foreign policy issues. At best it is

that has prevailed in Pakistani politics accountability and weed out undesirable h o p e d t h a t t h e a c t s o f a n for much of its history for despite these candidates, something that has hence unrepresentative military leader are not positive indicators of democracy many far not been possible due to the unquestionably and unalterably allowed of the most basic issues that have engineered removal of governments in to change such a fundamental part of impeded the development of true rapid succession by undemocratic Pakistani state policy. democracy remain constant. The powers. The stage is set as anti-military

political wings of intelligence agencies sentiment is at its peak and formidable such as the ISI are as much part of the pressure groups exist in the shape of the

MADIHA TALLAT, based at Lahore, is with political picture as ever, manipulating non-contesting parties and an agitated

the Department for Law and Policy at and forging artificial alliances to serve legal community that will hold the new

Lahore University of Management their own long term interests. While government to its words. Much depends Sciences. once elected the commitment of the on this government's ability to grapple Feedback : [email protected] leaders to true meaningful with the interests of the military and rise

Return of Democracy?

Madiha Tallat, in Lahore

I N F O C U S

PAKISTAN ELECTION


The first 'free and fair' general elections for but hesitant of letting it out explicitly Lahore) links with Pakistan which stranded

of Pakistan on February 18, in as many as there was no other viable political many passengers on both the sides.

years augur well for the India-Pakistan option in sight. Now after the general

peace process. Many had expected that elections, India is hoping that a stable This was indeed the first time that India given the massive unpopularity of the government based on clear majority was not an issue in the Pakistani general Musharraf regime and the ruling would be better able to make a decisive elections. In fact one of the positive gains Pakistan Muslim League (PML)-Qaid-e- forward movement than any other type of the elections this time has been the way Azam (QA) faction (dubbed the 'King's of the government. Moreover, even in which Pakistani voters and political party), the military would try to rig the though New Delhi will have to deal with a parties have come to appreciate the outcome and cling on till last minute to newer set of people, it expects little Indian democracy and the lack of same in the power. However coming as they trouble as Indian diplomats are Pakistan. On its part too, the Indian were after the tragic assassination of politicians are aware of the working style government chose not to comment upon the former Prime Minister Benazir of both the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) the political developments in Pakistan so Bhutto, the general elections have been and Nawaz Sharif's PML. as to avoid allegations of interference in dubbed as the first step of Pakistani Pakistan's internal affairs. This studied polity towards democracy. The election campaign itself was marked silence was broken except at the time of

by suicide bombings and assassinations Bhutto's assassination when Prime Minister

Although the contours of the new likely of political leaders; most prominent Manmohan Singh and other Indian

dispensation in Islamabad are still to among them was that of former Prime ministers expressed shock and horror over

emerge, a new found optimism is Minister Benazir Bhutto ' s . Her the development and highlighted the

evident with regard to the India- assassination at an election rally in common threat posed by terrorism to both

Pakistan bilateral relationship. This is Rawalpindi on 27 October 2007 was a big the countries.

because any attempt to rig the elections blow for the democratic forces in

on the part of the Musharraf regime or Pakistan. Her party, PPP was tipped to If we take a look at the current scenario it pro-Musharraf forces would have sweep the elections which could have can be observed that the bilateral peace created further instability in Pakistan propelled her to the Prime Ministership process is stuck in stalemate. The much which in turn would have been a bigger for the third time. touted Joint Working Group (JWG) on headache for the Indian establishment. Terrorism established after the Havana Clearly the stability of Pakistan is a The assassination cast a shadow on the meeting between Manmohan Singh and crucial factor for India's foreign policy rest of the election campaign and General Musharraf in September 2006 has and also its international standing. resulted in elections being postponed proved to be ineffective and non-

from January 8 to February 18. It functional, despite the repeated

In any case, doing business with Pervez however helped to strengthen the focus statements coming from New Delhi and

Musharraf was kind of a 'necessary evil' on democratic forces. This also meant Islamabad that threat of terrorism looms

for the Indian establishment. Although that issues which have been the staple of large upon both the countries. Many

the peace process did tread the forward general elections in Pakistan in recent strategic experts from India have doubted

path during Musharraf's rule, the Indian years like corruption, Kashmir, India etc. the logic of this JWG in equating India- a

establishment was quite wary of dealing did not figure prominently in these victim of terrorism for a long time and

with him because of the Kargil elections. After the assassination, the Pakistan- a perpetrator of cross-border

incursions and the 2001 Agra summit Indian government as a precautionary terrorism and recent victim of terrorism.

fiasco. So, seeing a change of security measure temporarily suspended All the evidences that have been brought

government in Islamabad was always ra i l (Munnabao-Khokrapar and before the JWG by India related to the

something which New Delhi was eager Samjhauta Express) and bus (Delhi- terrorist support networks, their financial

Pakistan Elections AndIndia-Pakistan Peace Process

Sameer Suryakant Patil

I N F O C U S

PAKISTAN ELECTION


links etc. has been refuted by Pakistan Pakistani government. the government and in turn affect the

which has frustrated the security dynamics of the peace process.

establishment in New Delhi. The issue of I n add i t i on , Benaz i r Bhu t to ' s Siachen too has been on the 'verge of assassination by the suspected Al Qaeda Ultimately, whatever the outlook of the resolution' for quite some time now. Both suicide terrorists means that one of the new government in Pakistan, it is the countries are stuck on the point of primary agenda of the new government imperative upon both the governments in authenticating their positions on ground. would be to take on this terrorist group New Delhi and Islamabad to put the

s u p p o r t e d b y t h e r e l i g i o u s bilateral peace process on the

The only encouraging signs come from fundamentalists. The group has been irreversible path of normalisation. It is

the Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) spreading its tentacles in the areas pertinent to point out here that even as

in operation. Just a few days before the bordering Afghanistan for quite some the new government assumes reins of

general elections, both the countries had time now. The likely sustained power in Islamabad, the Congress led-

signed an agreement in Islamabad to government offensive would act as a United Progressive Alliance government

double up the number of weekly double-edged sword for India. If the is heading into an election year. The

passenger flights between the two onslaught on the terrorist and Indian government may give the benefit

countries to facilitate people-to-people fundamentalist forces succeeds, these of initial goodwill to the new Pakistani

contact, business and trade activities. forces would weaken. However that government, but that goodwill may

The only sore point of this increased air weakness may propel these forces to evaporate soon if Islamabad does not act

link is that there are still no direct flights increase the frequency of attacks against fast upon outstanding issues.

connecting the two national capitals. India and its security forces, particularly

in Kashmir valley.

Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's

visit to Islamabad too has been pending Moreover the new Pakistani Army Chief

for quite some amount of time. Singh has General Ashfaq Pervez Kiyani does not

made it clear that unless there is a seem politically inclined. Yet the

notable breakthrough on any of the influence of the army on the Pakistani

contentious issues, he would not like to politics will not subside. This also means

waste such an important opportunity. that the army would continue to dictate

Pakistani officials too are insisting that the policy on India and there would not

time has come now to move from the be any let off in the hostilities. The

CBMs to dispute resolutions. That in turn ceasefire on the Line of Control (LoC) is

has created pressure upon the diplomats expected to continue as it is in the

of both the countries to find a resolution interest of both the countries if the LoC

on any of the outstanding issues. Sir remains peaceful.

Creek issue can be such an issue ripe for

resolution where a slight difference One primary worry that India has with exists between the two countries. regard to the new Pakistani government

is that the history of both the PPP and

The agenda for the new Pakistani PML in working together has not been

government however would be primarily really promising. At this stage, since it is

domestic characterised by economic in interest of both the parties to work

reconstruction, social development, together, they may form an alliance as

strengthening the democratic forces and indicated by the announcements of PML

most importantly fighting the terrorist leader Nawaz Sharif and PPP leader Asif

and fundamentalist groups. Just a few Ali Zardari of forming a national

months back, religious fundamentalists government. But as the inherent

in Islamabad's Lal Masjid had put up a contradictions in the functioning of a

strong challenge to the authority of the coalition government become apparent

federal government. Hence acting and the political exigency disappears

against them is a necessity for the they may part ways which will weaken

In Jammu City

Get your copy of

Epilogue

delivered

at your

doorstep

Call :

9419180762

I N F O C U S

PAKISTAN ELECTION

march 2008

Documents

pakistan elections

o r e t o

keen watcher of elections

u s e t h e r e i s

focusthe return of democracy

significance forjammu

immediate neighbourhood

epilogueb e c