March 4, 2008

Climate Prediction Center

Strategy for Developing Climate Forecast

Products in Cooperation with Partners

Wayne Higgins and Mike HalpertNOAA’s Climate Prediction Center

1

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Outline

Message Role in NOAA Climate Services Operational Activities Partnerships

– “White Paper” Climate Test Bed

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Message

Collaborative partnerships are a key element of future success:– To gain a predictive understanding of climate variability and change– To accelerate development & delivery of useful climate products – To make climate relevant to the daily lives of users

CPC has a framework to develop climate products with partners:– Climate Forecast Product Teams– Leverage jointly sponsored NCEP and CPO initiatives, such as

Climate Test Bed, to accelerate R2O and O2R

Let’s work together as partners to accelerate development of Let’s work together as partners to accelerate development of climate forecast products that meet user needs.climate forecast products that meet user needs.

Research, Development and Technology Infusion

Respond & Feedback

Path to NOAA’s Seamless Suite of Products and Forecast Services…

IBM Supercomputer Gaithersburg, MD

Distribute

LocalOffices

CentralGuidance

-Process-Assimilate-Predict

Observe

Products & Forecast Services

To Serve Diverse Customer Base

e.g., Emergency Managers, Water Resource Agencies…

NCEPCPC

NCEP provides operational support. CPC delivers operational climate forecast products and services. CPO provides support for research and transition activities to accelerate improvements.

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CPC Role in NOAA Climate Services

Focus: climate forecast products (weeks, months, seasons, years) that serve a diverse customer base

Official Products for the Nation Forecasts in collaboration with

other NCEP Centers, NOAA line offices, other agencies and labs

Integral to NOAA Seamless Suite of Products

“CPC serves the public by assessing and forecasting the impacts of short-term climate variability, emphasizing enhanced risks of weather-related extreme events, for use in mitigating losses and maximizing economic gains.”

2007/082007/08

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• Climate Forecast System: first dynamic operational coupled climate forecast model (implemented Aug 2004) at NCEP

• Climate Test Bed: jointly established by CPO and NCEP in 2005 and focused on accelerating improvements in the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products

• Increases in the skill of CPC official seasonal outlooks (20% or more; O’Lenic et al. 2007) due in part to CFS and to CTB milestones (e.g. consolidation tool).

Climate Prediction Advancements at NCEP

(0.5 Month Lead – 4 yr running avg vs. GPRA Goal)

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Operational Activities Monitoring Products Outlooks (GPRA Measure - U.S. Seasonal Temp.) Assessment Products

How do we accelerate improvements in the above?

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Outreach and Feedback Partnerships Applied Research Transition Activities (R2O; O2R)

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Climate Monitoring Products

– Primary modes of climate variability (ENSO, MJO, NAO, PNA, AO,...)

– Atmospheric Circulation (global troposphere and stratosphere)

– Storm Tracks and Blocking– Monsoons– Oceanic Conditions (global)– Precipitation and Surface Temperature

(global and US)– Drought (US, North America; NIDIS)

Note: Note: There has been a concerted effort to improve and There has been a concerted effort to improve and expand the CPC monitoring product suite in response expand the CPC monitoring product suite in response to user community requests.to user community requests.

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Climate Outlook Products Tropical Pacific SSTs Seasonal and Monthly Outlooks for Precipitation & Temperature

(3rd Thu. of the month; Monthly update)

Seasonal Drought Outlook (1st and 3rd Thu. of the month)

Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks (Atlantic and Eastern Pacific - issued in May, updated in Aug.)

6-10 Day (week-1) and 8-14 Day (week-2) Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks (updated daily 3:00pm)

Day 3-14 Hazards Assessments (US, Global Tropics)

Note: Note: We recognize that we need to do more than T & P – and in We recognize that we need to do more than T & P – and in particular – more climate-weather type products, more particular – more climate-weather type products, more variables. What are your needs?variables. What are your needs?

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Climate Assessment Products

Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (monthly, available on web) ENSO Diagnostics Discussion (monthly, PDF and MS WORD) Weekly ENSO / MJO updates (.ppt, PDF versions available on web) Seasonal Climate Summaries (available on web) Special Climate Assessments (extreme events due to persistent patterns,

available on web) Annual Climate Assessment (multi-agency summary published in the AMS

Bulletin) Hazards Assessments (US, Africa, and Global Tropics) – Day 3-14 – Weather /

Climate Connection

Note: Note: These products should connect climate to people’s lives. These products should connect climate to people’s lives. How How should we expand and improve the current suite of should we expand and improve the current suite of products to do this? products to do this?

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Partnerships Collaborative partnerships are a key element of CPCs future success:

– to gain a predictive understanding of climate variability and change– to accelerate development & delivery of useful climate products – to enhance the value of NOAA’s climate services

The partnership “landscape” is complex. – NOAA – Federal Labs and Programs– Academia– Federal Mission Agencies – Emergency Managers and Planners– Federal State and Local Governments– International– Industry– Media

Partners include both the providers and users of climate information. Regional partnerships are increasingly important.

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268,762 RSF; includes 800+ Feds, contractors and visiting scientists • 5 NCEP Centers• NESDIS research & satellite services• OAR Air Resources Laboratory

40 spaces for visiting scientists

NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Predictionat the UMD Research Park (M-Square)

Date

ConstructionStart May 9, 2007

Move Start Dec 2008

Move Complete Summer 2009

Construction Schedule

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CPC/CTB “White Paper”

Strategy for Developing Climate ForecastProducts in Cooperation with Partners

Table of Contents

Executive Summary 21.0 Background and Purpose 3 2.0 Climate Forecast Products for Decision Support 4 3.0 Implementation Strategy 7 4.0 Future Priorities 10 5.0 Budget 10

APPENDIX A. Guidelines for Adding Models 11APPENDIX B. CPC-RISA Workplans 12APPENDIX C. Climate Products List 14 APPENDIX D. Collaborative Transition Projects 17 APPENDIX E. Strategic Challenges 18APPENDIX F. Acronyms 21 APPENDIX G. Contact Information 22

RISA Contacts Areas of CollaborationSoutheast Climate Consortium (SECC)

Muthuvel Chelliah (CPC)Jim Jones, Keith Ingram, Jim O’Brien

Downscaling CPC Outlooks, Regional ENSO Impacts; Crop Yield Forecasting; Applications of high resolution GCM,CFS hindcasts.

Western Water Assessment (WWA)

Michelle L’Heureux (CPC)Andrea Ray

Intraseasonal forecasts and applications; Decision support related to drought mitigation and response; user feedback to enhance CPC products.

Climate Assessments for the Southwest (CLIMAS)

Ed O’Lenic (CPC)Holly Hartmann

Improve users’ ability to access and interact with, and make decisions based upon CPC outlooks.

Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP)

Jon Gottschalck (CPC)Sarah Fleisher Trainor

Development and improved utilization of storminess related products, aid Alaska’s drought / fire related challenges through better application of CPC official outlooks and the use of new precipitation databases.

Pacific Climate Information System (PaCIS)

Luke He (CPC)Eileen Shea, Jim Weyman

Pacific Rainfall Atlas; Climate Teleconferences and User Training, Research for Improving Climate Service and Forecasts for the Pacific region.

California Application Program (CAP)

Kingtse Mo (CPC)Dan Cayan, John Roads

Soil moisture analyses from 4 NLDASs and regional reanalysis, CFS-based drought forecasts, MME applications to SI forecasts, week 1, week 2 E, P, soil moisture relationships from NLDAS.

University of Washington Center for Science in the Earth System (CSES)

Doug LeComte (CPC)Dennis Lettenmaier

Enhancements to U.W. surface water monitor, Improved tools for Drought Monitor and Drought Outlook.

CPC-RISA Program

Goal: to meet RISA-customer needs for climate forecast productsActivities: exchanges via CPC & RISA focal points; workplans tailored to customer needs.

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RISA Contacts: Sarah Fleisher Trainor (Outreach Coordinator, ACCAP)

Area of Collaboration: • Development and improved use of storminess products• Aid Alaska’s drought and fire related challenges through better application of CPC official outlooks and new precipitation databases

Status:• Prioritized stakeholder feedback from July 2007 storminess related teleconference• Ongoing research towards improved storminess guidance at extended ranges (week 2 – seasonal)• Strategy being finalized to aid Alaska drought / fire related challenges

RISA: Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Policy (ACCAP)

CPC/CTB Contact: Jon Gottschalck

Sample CPC-RISA Workplan:

SEE POSTERSSEE POSTERS

Conversion of CPC Monitoring and Forecast Products to GIS Format

Viviane Silva Lloyd Thomas, Mike Halpert and Wayne Higgins

BEFOREBEFORE

AFTERAFTER

The CPC conversion to GIS started at CPAS 2 years ago!

Interoperability &

Zoom In

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Climate Products List (Compiled by Kelly Redmond (WRCC) based on NOAA RISA Program input)

General Comments:

Output and products geared to the regional level (most recurrent theme). Access to all forecast elements, rather than just focusing on temperature

and precipitation at the surface, including lower troposphere, planetary boundary layer properties, cloud cover information, daily and hourly temperature, time series, and wind speed and direction.

Model and forecast verification data. Tropical cyclone and tropical storm predictions (from a few weeks to

seasonal time scales). Physical basis for / elucidation of / existence of / role of / properties of / all

the “oscillations”: ENSO, PDO, NPO, AMO, SOI, AO, NAO, MJO More detailed and sustained interaction, formal and informal, through

workshops, seminars, and meetings.

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Climate Products List (Compiled by Kelly Redmond (WRCC) based on input from NOAA RISA Program)

Topical Area VariablesHydrology Seasonal evolution of snowpack; water budget; min T;

groundwater recharge; evapotranspiration budgets; mountain recharge; orographic enhancement; cloud microphysics; aerosol interactions; rain / snow levels

Coastal issues Inundation; sea level rise; climate variability / change issues in low-lying areas; sea breezes; upwelling and fisheries andcoastal ecosystems

Air Quality Inversions (individual & population; trends);Boundary layer characteristics (stability properties; trends; transport winds; pollution sources, sinks, trajectories; smokedispersion and trajectories)

Drought Soil moisture budget; evapotranspiration; causes of droughts;feedback mechanisms; tracking mechanisms; NIDIS / DEWSatmospheric effects on NDVI; multi-scale descriptors; SPI

Energy Factors affecting demand (temperature, ventilation, cloudiness); sea breezes; hydropower; wind power forecastsand trends; solar energy forecasts and trends

Ecological Health Fire and climate; downslope wind events (Santa Ana, Sundowner, etc); relationships to large scale; insects; pests,Pathogens; aquatic conditions; wildlife survival conditions; wildlife food supply; managed agriculture

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Framework for Developing Climate Products with Partners

(“White Paper”)

• A focused Climate Forecast Tool Development effort that builds on the success of the CTB and includes opportunities to develop new and improved tools; and

• Climate Forecast Product Teams that builds on the success of the CPC-RISA program to work with partners to leverage the improved tools and accelerate the development and delivery of user-demanded climate forecast products.

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Climate Forecast Tool Development Efforts to consolidate climate model forecasts have improved CPC’s official outlooks.

Future tool development efforts will build on CPC’s consolidation: - use new models with independent skill; - provide objective verification of all models and official forecasts

Develop guidelines to add a new model to CPC’s consolidation: - reproducibility on NCEP computer; - hindcast runs; - sufficient ensemble members and leads; key output variables; - available in real-time for dissemination. CTB (www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ctb) competitive grants program provides resources

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Climate Forecast Product Teams CPC wants to organize two teams that will serve as the functional core of the CPC strategy to accelerate development of climate products in collaboration with partners.

• The “Climate Products Outreach Team” (CPOT)

• The “Climate Products Implementation Team” (CPIT)

CPOT encourages and engages partnerships. The CPOT is partially mobilized (CPC-RISA program).

CPIT focuses on implementation.

While the two teams are charged to identify or implement climate forecast products, respectively, they also have complementary functions. A lot has been accomplished but additional resources are required.

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Message

Collaborative partnerships are a key element of future success:– To gain a predictive understanding of climate variability and change– To accelerate development & delivery of useful climate products – To make climate relevant to the daily lives of users

CPC has a framework to develop climate products with partners:– Climate Forecast Product Teams– Leverage jointly sponsored NCEP and CPO initiatives, such as

Climate Test Bed, to accelerate R2O and O2R

Let’s work together as partners to accelerate development of Let’s work together as partners to accelerate development of climate forecast products that meet user needs.climate forecast products that meet user needs.

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Climate Climate Test BedTest Bed

NCEP and CPO Climate Support: Climate Test Bed

Climate Community

Research &Development

NOAA ClimateForecast

Operations

Mission:Mission: To accelerate the transition of scientific advances from the climate research community to improved NOAA climate forecast products and services.

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NCEP and CPO Climate Support: Climate Test Bed

The CTB is a resource to accelerate scientific advances to operations – Bridge between research & operations– Embraces the R2O and O2R paradigms

The CTB emphasizes high profile science activities– CFS/GFS Improvements (CFSRR)– Multi-model ensembles (IMME, NMME)– Objective climate forecast products and applications (drought / NIDIS)

Competitive Grants Program CTB-COLA Seminar Series CPC-RISA Program Distinguished Visiting Scientist Program (FY09)

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Ongoing Strategic Priorities

• Accelerate improvements in the CFS through the Research to Operations (R2O) & Operations to Research (O2R) paradigm

• Enhance NCEP’s role in the transition process • Be a partner within the multi model ensemble

enterprise (IMME and NMME strategy)

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CTB infrastructure– Computing and human support for accelerating R2O– O2R Support – people, data access, helpdesk, training – to accelerate

R2O

Multi-Model Ensembles – National Strategy

Computer resources for generating hindcasts– Concept of Operations

Memoranda of Agreement with partners (International and US) for exchanges of operational models & forecast data

Challenges for CTB

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Summary

CFS and CTB advancing nicely NCEP’s role in R2O implies greater support for

O2R. (Research and transition activities need to build off the operational infrastructure.)

New NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction should help facilitate these.