mapping fertilizer trends in major producing regions …...all analysis and opinions, data,...

Fertilizers

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Fertilizers

illuminating the markets

Market Reporting

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Events

Mapping fertilizer trends in major producing regionsOliver Hatfield, VP Business Development, Argus Media Ltd

September 2019

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Over 30 experts globally across 7 offices


Analytics keycontent

Key content New

Price forecast

Published Methodology:

-15yr cyclical and reversion forecast updated quarterly

-25yr LRMC forecast updated annually

S&D analysis for major markets Demand Forecasts derived from an Agricultural Model

Assessment of new capacity Project Screening to filter out future capacity

Cost analysis Full Cost curve updated quarterly or annually (depending on product)

Frequency of Updates 4 Quarterly updates + 1 Annual spotlight

Data available on Argus Direct Front End included

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Presentation overview

Mapping fertilizer trends in major producing regions

• Recent developments and short to long term market analysis for:

• Potash

• Phosphate

• Nitrogen

• Focusing on regions and countries that move the supply balance

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Potash

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• We are still feeling the effects of the upturn in potash

prices in 2008!

• New capacity has exceeded new demand since 2009.

• Creation of spare capacity normally weakens the market.

• Geography of expansions is focused on Canada, Russia, Belarus and China.

• While there have been some new entrants, generally the supply

concentration has remained relatively high.

• Oligopoly has meant pricing has been reasonably stable until recently.

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Recent potash prices

But we are starting to see the impact of the most recent expansions

Short-run MOP balance

-233

503

5

-845

-1,433

34

160

1,327

216 175

301

892

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

Q4 2019Q2 2019 Q2 2020Q2 2018

‘000 t

Q3 2020Q1 2018 Q3 2018 Q4 2018 Q1 2019 Q3 2019 Q1 2020 Q4 2020

MOP balance Surplus

Deficit

• Robust demand underlined a strong pick up in potash prices in 2018.

• But sentiment has softened in 2019.

• Our expectations are for weaker market in the short term.

• Key potash suppliers are adjusting capacity, looking for equilibrium.

• 2018 was a strong demand year.

• Q1 2019 was tight, but the balance shifted to equilibrium in mid-year.

• As we look forwards, we’re moving in to a period of surplus supply.

Forecast

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SupplyKey themes in mid-2019

Nutrien and Mosaic curtail MOP

supply as weak demand allows MOP

prices to fall; K+S follows

Bethune continues to face quality

issues, production ramps up,

maintenance planned

SQM continues to focus on lithium

China ramps up pressure in SOP market

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MOP Capacity Forecast

MOP capacity forecast to 2024: Includes firm and probable MOP projects

0.5

0.0

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2022

Million t

2017 2018 2019 20232020 2021 2024

Ø 2.2

1.4

2.01.9

1.8

2.82.7

2.8

2.0

Bolivia

Canada Greenfield

China + Laos

Turkmenisatan

Jordan

Spain

Belarus Petrikov

Canada Brownfield

Russia Greenfield

Russia Brownfield

Capacity represents Argus’

assessment of operable

capacity, rather than

design/nameplate capacity.

• The biggest changes to capacity in 2019 are Belaruskali adding capacity

at Petrikov, and ongoing ramp up of Eurochem new mines.

• By 2021, we see brownfield expansions in Canada with Mosaic ramping

up Esterhazy K3, while K+S plans to increase production at Bethune (2nd

phase). Uralkali is also expanding capacity at Solikamsk 3

• By 2023, we should see new capacity from Uralkali Ust-Yayvinksy starting

up. Nutrien is also planning substantial new brownfield capacity

expansion.

• MOP incremental capacity addition run rate in recent years has been

around 2 million t/y.

• For the period between 2019 to 2024 this will increase to 2.4 million t/y.

• Major recent projects in recent years were Bethune in Canada and two

Eurochem projects, which are gradually ramping up.

• Other small additions have been projects in China, Laos, Turkmenistan, by

APC in Jordan and YLB in Bolivia

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MOP Forecast Net Capacity

Mine 2018 2019 2020 2024

Sigmundshall -900 0 0 0

Picadilly -2,000 0 0 0

Boulby -1,040 0 0 0

Vilafruns (Sallent) 0 0 -500 0

Taquari Vassouras 0 0 0 -625

Berezniki 2 -200 0 -290 -410

Total -4,140 0 -790 -1,035

Global Capacity Forecast: adjusting for mine closures

1

-5

2

-2

-1

-3

-4

0

3

2021

2.8

Ø 1.4

2022

Million y/t

1.4

2017

-2.1

2.6

2018

1.9

2019

1.0

2020

2.7

2023

1.1

2024

Closure: Canada (Picadilly)

Closure: Germany (Sigmundshall)

Capacity expansions

Closure: UK (Boulby)

Closure: Spain (Sallent)

Closure: Brazil (Taquari)

Closure: Russia (Berezniki 2)

Net capacity

• Substantial closures will to some extent offset the additional capacity outlined previously.

• Nutrient announced the closure of it 2 million t/y Picadilly mine in Saskatchewan. However, it will have relatively minor

commercial impact.

• European closures have greater commercial impact in Spain, Germany and UK.

• Note that this is based on committed capacity, it doesn’t capture losses of production due to commercial decisions, e.g.

SQM.

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Significant ramp up in capacity, mostly in Russia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

mn t

20302010 2015 2020 2025

‘18-23

Uralkali Russia 13,000 12,600 13,200 15,400 600

EuroChem Russia 0 400 5,300 7,500 4,900

Belaruskali Belarus 10,800 12,900 14,400 14,400 1,500

Turkmenhimya Turkmenistan 0 300 650 1,300 350

Uzkimyosanoat Uzbekistan 200 600 600 600 0

FSU nameplate capacity 24,000 26,800 34,150 39,200 7,350

FSU production 17,112 24,150 29,197 32,510 5,047

FSU op. rate 71% 90% 85% 83% -5%

FSU demand 2,220 2,026 2,199 2,370 173

FSU S/D Balance 21,780 22,124 26,998 30,140 4,874

Regional demand

Belarusian ProductionOthers

Russian Production

0.0

0.5

1.0

3.0

1.5

2.5

2.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

mn t

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

EuroChem production

Usolskiy capacity

Volgakaliy capacity

• The biggest change in capacity in this region in the next five years is

Eurochem’s potash investment.

• Usolskiy first phase produced 467kt in 1H 2019, FY target of 1.1

mt. Design capacity likely by 2021, upgrade possible by 2022.

• Usolskiy phase II underway, likely 2023. Capacity total = 4mt.

• Volgakaliy more complicated. Assuming 2.3 mt by 2023, phase I;

phase II to follow.

• We expect to see other project activity also from Acron and Slavkaliy,

which could be new entrants in this timeframe.

• FSU regional exportable surplus increasing from 22mn t to 30 mn t by

2028.

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North American MOP balance North America MOP Capacity Expansions/Closures

• Canadian potash capacity is predicted to continue to expand, resulting in an increasing exportable surplus.

• Brownfield investment will result in 3 million t/y of capacity being added in the next 5 years.

• The biggest increase is predicted to take place beyond 2024, with the emergence of BHP’s greenfield investment.

• With some modest increase in regional demand, it means that the exportable surplus of potash capacity should increase by

around 50%.

MOP capacity expansion in Canada will magnify the region’s exportable supply surplus

9.6 11.3 10.5 11.1 10.7 10.8 10.9 11.0 11.1 11.5 11.8

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

20222018

Million t/y

202020192016

-11.5 -13.6

2017

-13.9

2021

-14.5

2023 2024

-18.3

2028

-15.8

2033

-10.0-14.2

-22.1

-13.9 -14.9

Imports (Outside NAm)

Exports (Outside NAm)

Apparent Demand

Production

42

44

46

32

-2

40

0

28

30

34

36

38

38.9

2019 2021

43.5

2017

45.9

20282022 2023

Million t/y

20332024

37.0

20202018

36.1 36.333.9

38.2

35.936.7

Picadilly

Nutrien Various

Jansen

Bethune

Esterhazy ramp up

Existing NAm capacity

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MOP net balance

Global MOP balanceUnprecedented MOP demand growth in 2018 helped absorb capacity additions but from 2019 a supply surplus builds y-o-y until 2024

• Robust demand growth in 2017

and 2018, combined with some

closures, led to a significant deficit

and tightening of the market.

• We are already seeing that shift in

to reverse in 2H 2019. Demand

growth this year is expected to be

flat while capacity ramps up at

various new/recent projects.

• As we move forward, we will see a

gradual and persistent supply

surplus as the ramp up of new

project activity, adjusted for

closures, exceeds incremental

demand growth.

• Will new entrant tonnes make

pricing more competitive?

0

-3

-6

-5

-2

-4

1

-1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2016 2017 202420182015

Mn t

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

Cumulative net change

Net change

Demand growth

Inoperable

Capacity closures

Capacity expansions

To surplus

To deficit

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Phosphate

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Global phosphates market is becoming increasingly regionalised

Canada &

Latin America

dominated by

US

Brazil still globally competitive market but

Chinese influence in retreat

Indian

subcontinent

dominated by

Saudi Arabia

and China

Africa –increasingly targeted by OCP and

Saudi product (east coast)

Europe dominated by North African

and Russian DAP

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China becomes net DAP exporter in 2007

But Chinese production is facing come challenges

• Zero growth in domestic fertilizer demand by 2020

• Permitting of rock mining tightened

• Ongoing environmental control

• DAP exporters facing increased competition

Capacity additions are slowing due to the chronic DAP oversupply

Market consolidation is happening:

• Kailin-Wengfu merger was confirmed after a year of rumours

• China's 2nd and 3rd largest producers overtaking YTH with 10mn t/yr of DAP/NPK capacity

Likely future outcomes:

• Vertical integration encouraged

• Older, higher cost producers forced out of business

• Fewer participants remaining with higher utilisation

• Longer term capacity decline likely, but weighted against macro demands of China’s economy

Chinese phosphates sector undergoing consolidation

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China DAP exports continue

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2017 2018 2019

‘t Total China DAP exports in January-April 2017-19

January February March April

Source: GTT

• Weak domestic Chinese demand in 1Q19

• Suppliers look to meet Indian DAP demand

• China ships 1.3mn t in January-June 2019 to India –up by 34%

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Reason:

• Phosphate rock reserves depleting and permitting is difficult

• Environmental issues (Phosphogypsum)

Result:

• Mosaic now owns 70pc of DAP/MAP/MES capacity

• Nutrien owns 20pc

Implications:

• Higher concentration

• New export strategy orientation/MWSPC

• DAP Tampa no longer international benchmark

North America – horizontal consolidation2005 • US Chem exits market

2006 • Mosaic closes Green Bay plant

2010 • Agrifos switches away from phosphates

2013 • Mosaic acquires CF phosphate assets

• PhosChem disbands

2014 • May: OCP agrees supply deal with PCS

• December: MissPhos ceases production

2016 • PCS /Agrium merger– Nutrien formed

2017 • Mosaic idles Plant City (1.8mn t/yr, mainly DAP)

2019 • Nutrien ceases MAP production at Redwater in

Canada, starts to convert unit to AS

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Capacity growth driven by Morocco and Saudi Arabia, timing is important

Yara, BrazilMAP/TSP - Galvani, Serra do Salitre (+180,000 t/yr P2O5, 2020/21)

OCP, MoroccoDAP/MAP/NPS – JPH 3.4mn t/yr P2O5

DAP/MAP/TSP/DCP/MCP – SPH - 1mn t/yr P2O5

DAP/MAP - PhosBoucraa 330,000 t/yr P2O5

China Molybdenum, BrazilMAP/TSP - Catalao - +200,000 t/yr P2O5, 2020/21

Kazphosphate, KazakhstanMAP - Taraz (+110,000 t/yr P2O5, 2018)NPK/DCP – Eurochem ( +250,000 t/yr P2O5

Ma’aden, Saudi ArabiaDAP/MAP/NPS – Ma’aden 3 - +1.7 mn t/yr P2O5, ~2024

JPMC, IndonesiaPupuk Kaltim, Bontang (200,000 t/yr P2O5, 2019)Pupuk Sriwijaya (Pusri), Palembang (200,000 t/yr P2O5, 2020)

Mosaic, US – Plant City closure, -1mn t PhosAcid :• Lower operating costs and improve system-wide margins• Reduce CAPEX requirements• Serve own distribution business and other India customers

with low-cost MWSPC JVBase Case assumes plant will not restart

China– Industry restructuringArgus assumed the closure of small inefficient plants Equivalent to -0.7mn t P2O5 PhosAcid

Nutrien, Canada Redwater MAP plant conversion to AS - 2019 (-345,000 t/yr P2O5)

Nutrien, USGeismar plant to close end-2018(-200,000 t/yr P2O5)

EgyptPhosacid – NCIC (2019)– 360,000 t/yr P2O5

Phosacid – Misr (2022)– 500,000 t/yr P2O5

Kribhco/OCP JV, IndiaDAP/NPK – 1.2mn t/yr - 2022

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Nitrogen

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Global urea capacity forecast, 2018-2033Argus is tracking 36.0 million t/y of new urea capacity; either at the construction stage or in feasibility

Global Capacity expansions

Forecast capacity expansions

Possible capacity expansions

Speculative capacity expansions

Limited investment potential in

Europe and the Americas. Instead

capital is flowing to the following

regions.

Nigeria: Cheap gas priced at $1.50-

2.00/MMBtu and cheap building costs

are offsetting risk.

India: Government is supplying cheap

capital to offset imports and support

the subsidy domestically.

Russia Central Asia: Cheap gas

$0.50-3.50/MMBtu is providing a

steady stream of projects.

SE Asia: Stranded gas in Brunei and

Australia is seeking monetisation.

Iran and Egypt: Government backed

building to support local economy

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Global urea capacity forecast, 2018-2024

• Basis for inclusion in

our firm listing in this

timeframe is projects

which are financed,

received all required

permits and have

begun construction.

Projects undergoing

feasibility are

excluded, as are those

without LT gas supply.

0.0

2.5

5.0

7.5

2023

mn t/y

202120172015 2016 20192018 2020 2022 2024

2.6

Americas

South Asia

CIS

SE Asia

Middle East

Africa

Pro-rated urea capacity forecast

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Dramatic expansion of West African urea supply will expand continent’s exportable supply surplus

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20202010

mn t/y

2015 2025 2030

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2010

mn t

2015 2020 2025 2030

Production

Production

2010 2015 2018 2025 ‘18-25

Egypt 5.1 5.9 6.8 7.3 +0.5

Algeria 0.0 3.0 3.4 3.4 +0.0

Nigeria 0.3 0.3 1.7 6.0 +4.3

Libya 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 +0.0

African capacity 6.4 10.2 12.8 17.7 +4.9

Technical surplus 4.0 7.7 10.1 14.3 +4.2

African production 5.8 4.8 11.4 15.6 +4.2

African op. rate 91% 47% 89% 88% -1%

African S/D Balance 3.4 2.2 8.7 12.2 +3.5

Kima II EgyptJul-

19520

Dangote I NigeriaJul-

211,271

Dangote II NigeriaJul-

221,271

Eleme II NigeriaJul-

221,400

NCIC EgyptJul-

23380

Existing

Expansion

Possible/Spec.

Exportable

surplus

• Three new trains in Nigeria will add close to 6 million t/y of capacity.

• The Dangote project recently signed a new gas supply contract with Chevron, though

still some questions.

• Eleme project understood to be on track.

• Regional demand expected to grow, but exportable surplus set to grow substantially.

• The NCIC project is not yet firm, but seems likely to progress. Egypt gas situation is greatly

improved.

• Elsewhere, capacity in Algeria has stabilised, operations at around 90% utilization. Exports

of 3.2 million t in 2018 likely will be repeated in 2019.

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Barauni has been connected to the Indian gas network

Existing

Expansion

Speculative

0

10

20

30

40

502

02

0

mn t/y

20

10

20

15

20

25

20

30

0

10

20

30

40

50

mn t

20302010 2015 2020 2025

2010 2015 2018 2025 ‘18-25

India 23.0 24.0 24.0 30.4 +6.4

Pakistan 4.6 6.3 6.3 6.3 +0.0

Bangladesh 3.0 3.0 3.5 3.5 +0.0

Afghanistan 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 +0.0

Other South Asia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 +0.0

S. Asian capacity 30.7 33.4 33.9 40.3 +6.4

Technical surplus -6.5 -9.4 -6.1 -1.3 +4.9

S. Asian production 28.3 30.5 30.6 36.7 +6.1

S. Asian op. rate 92% 91% 90% 91% +1%

S. Asian S/D Balance -9.2 -12.8 -9.7 -5.3 +4.4

Ramagundam India Mar-20 1,271

Matix Fert. India Oct-20 1,271

Gorakhpur India Mar-22 1,271

Barauni India Dec-22 1,271

Total firm 5,082

Sindri India Jul-23 1,271

Talcher India Jul-23 1,271

Polash Bangladesh Jul-24 924

Total speculative 3,465

Total: Firm + Speculative 8,547

Production

Capacity: Bangladesh

• We added the HURL project at Barauni to our list of firm projects, after progress on gas

supply.

• This raises our expectations of firm new Indian urea capacity to 4 projects, adding 5 million

t/y. Indian urea capacity would reach 30 million t/y.

• Two other projects are considered speculative at Talcher (coal-gasification) and in

Bangladesh.

• Collectively, firm project activity would reduce the regional urea import requirement from

nearly 13 million tonnes in 2015 to just over 5 million t/y.

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Chinese urea plant closures Chinese capacity, 2010-33

Chinese urea production, 2017-19 Chinese urea production, 2017-19

Chinese urea output has increased with gas availability Chinese urea capacity is forecast to stabilise between 65-70 million t/y over the medium term

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

mn t/y

20202010 2015 20302025

Chinese capacity

Chinese Capacity Expansions

Name Country Start Capacity

Erdos Wulan In. Mongolia Sep-19 1,200

Runjin Chem Shanxi Nov-19 300

Sanning Hubei Nov-19 795

Mingshengda Shandong H2 2020 795

XLX Jiangxi Jiangxi H2 2020 525

Hongtaixing Heilongjiang H2 2020 300

Linggu Chem Jinagsu H2 2021 1,680

Zhengyuan Hebei H2 2021 248

Total firm 6,368

50

51

52

53

54

55

0

5

10

Jul-17

mn t/y

Jan-18

mn t/m

Jan-17

Jan-19

Jul-18

Jul-19

Production

Consumption

Monthly Chinese production

Annualised production

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan

mn t

MayFeb AugMar Apr Jun Jul Sep Oct Nov Dec

2017

2015

2016

2018

5.3

4.5 4.5

3.8

0

2

4

6

2016 2017 2018 2019

mn t/y1. Capacity closure rate is slowing, but for now

we are still seeing net decrease in capacity.

2. Operating rates have improved towards

80%, while higher gas availability means

more production over the winter.

3. Urea production up ~2.0 mn t this year…

4. …and we are seeing this increment being

passed into the export market.

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Market Balance: Five-year OutlookCheaper inputs, a weak RMB and capacity make the market look moderately over-supplied in the year

ahead

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2019

mn t/y

20222016 2018 20242017 2020 2021 2023

Net Change

Capacity expansion

Chinese export delta

Demand

Iran export delta

Closures

Restarts

• The withdrawal of Chinese exports in 2016

and 2017 contributed to a reduction in

the net change surplus, then a deficit in

2018, which brought a tighter market in

that year.

• We had been expecting a tighter 2019,

but a weak RMB and weak energy prices

mean that Chinese urea exports have

tipped the balance towards surplus.

• For the period 2020-21, the market looks

to be shifting to surplus with 5 million t/y

of new export oriented capacity

exceeding new demand growth, so the

market likely to weaken.

• For 2023-2024, the rate of new capacity

additions slows, and we can expect a

tighter market. But there’s a risk that some

projects move ahead and tip the balance.

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Copyright notice

Copyright © 2019 Argus Media Ltd. All rights reserved. All

intellectual property rights in this presentation and the

information herein are the exclusive property of Argus and

and/or its licensors and may only be used under licence from

Argus. Without limiting the foregoing, by reading this

presentation you agree that you will not copy or reproduce

any part of its contents (including, but not limited to, single

prices or any other individual items of data) in any form or for

any purpose whatsoever without the prior written consent of

Argus.

Trademark notice

ARGUS, ARGUS MEDIA, the ARGUS logo, DEWITT, FMB,

FUNDALYTICS, METAL-PAGES, JIM JORDAN & ASSOCIATES,

JJ&A, ARGUS publication titles and ARGUS index names are

trademarks of Argus Media Limited.

Disclaimer

All data and other information presented (the “Data”) are

provided on an “as is” basis. Argus makes no warranties,

express or implied, as to the accuracy, adequacy, timeliness, or

completeness of the Data or fitness for any particular purpose.

Argus shall not be liable for any loss or damage arising from

any party’s reliance on the Data and disclaims any and all

liability related to or arising out of use of the Data to the full

extent permissible by law.

… thanks for your attention!


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Fertilizer Analytics services

4 Quarterly Reports Interactive Excel Spreadsheets 1 Annual LT Report



Key content New

Price forecast










Analytics data visualisation dashboard

Argus is continuously seeking to improve

data delivery and user experience. Our team

is developing a new interactive platform for

you to easily access all fundamentals data.


Dashboard shows capacity by country, location


Shows prices and trade flows plus advanced chart builder


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… and last but not least, Fertilizer Focus magazine

• • •

The leading fertilizer industry magazine is undergoing a revamp:• Widest and most credible fertilizer industry

circulation• Best in class articles on the sector• The most compelling vehicle for advertising

to reach a qualified fertilizer audience

mapping fertilizer trends in major producing regions …...all analysis and opinions, data,...

Documents