mapping analytical & modeling tools ndc … 2_final.… · mapping tools to ndc process key...
TRANSCRIPT
Paving the Way for NDC Implementation San Jose, Costa RicaDecember 6-8, 2016
Suphachol SuphachalasaiPMR Secretariat
MAPPING ANALYTICAL & MODELING TOOLS
FOR NDC IMPLEMENTATION
2
Contents
Context and challenges
Mapping tools to NDC process
Key dimensions
Examples
Concluding thoughts
3
NDC cycle and analytical needs
I. NDC refinement policy options,
impacts, roadmap, sector targets, etc.
II. NDC submission
Institutional and multi-sectoral coordination, stakeholder engagement
III. NDC implementation
enabling policy and investment
framework, barriers removal,
complementary measures
IV. NDC monitoring and
tracking
country-level & global stocktake
V. NDC revision, ratcheting up
ex-post + ex-ante,
understanding gap and potential NDC cycle and
analytical needs
• 2018: Facilitative dialogue• 2020: Update NDCs• 2023: Global stocktake• 2025: Update NDCs• 2028: Global stocktake
4
Broad policy questions
How to translate overall pledges and broad pillars into concrete actions and enabling policies?
How to prioritize and time actions/policies under budget envelope?
How to make NDC implementable, and implement it effectively?
How has NDC performed?
What are potential options for ratcheting up?
NDC process requires technical capacity, supported by appropriate analytical approaches/tools
5
Challenge: what model(s) to choose?
Models included here are for mitigation and/or carbon pricing policies primarily in energy-related sectors, for ex-ante analysis and projection (excluding visualization/communication tools, and software)
6
NDC Modeling and Analytical Framework
NDC process
Policy question 1
Model A Model B
Policy question 2
Tool C
Policy question 3
Model D
Policy question 4
Challenge: model selection NDC modeling framework
7
Mapping tools to NDC cycle: country perspective
•Cross-sectoral consolidation, aggregation
• consensus building tools
•Granular tools targeting concrete actions/policies
•Wider impacts beyond GHG
• Forward-looking modeling tools
•NDC-sectors/GHGs
•Out to 2030 at least
• Same framework for ratcheting up
•Ex-post evaluation tool suitable to NDC metrics (indicators, projects, programs, sectors, policies)
NDC monitoring
and tracking
NDC refinement and update
NDC submission
NDC implementation
8
Modeling tools/framework: key dimensions
Geographical scale
Granularity of policies and measures
Time horizon
Sector and GHG coverage
Impact indicators
Theoretical foundation and model solution – the meaning behind the numbers
Ex-ante projection VS ex-post evaluation
o Dealing with uncertainty | adaptation linkages
9
Geographical scale
Scale Relevance to NDC process
Global • Global stocktake• Consolidate other models
Multi-country/region • International and regional policies/cooperation
• Global stocktake• Model comparison for large emitters
National • NDC process (refinement, submission, implementation support, ratcheting up)
• International linkage but limited
Sub-national (city, state) • Support NDC process, in tandem with country-level model
• City-/state-level action plans
10
Granularity of policy questions and impacts
Granularity Relevance to NDC process
Sector/sub-sector • Broad strategies and scenarios• Awareness raising• Communication
Sectoral with focus measures
• Broad strategies and scenarios• Initial policy dialogue • Initial target setting
Fuel-/technology-specific interventions
• NDC package of policies and measures• NDC economics and financials • NDC roadmap
Project-level and/or spatially explicit interventions
• NDC package of policies and measures• NDC economics and financials • NDC roadmap and concrete actions• Support NDC implementation
11
Mapping against geographical scale and granularity
Geographical scale: Globalmulti-country national sub-national
Granularity: Sector/sub-sector sectoral with focus measures fuel-/technology-specific interventions project-level and/or spatially explicit interventions
Ordinal categorization for illustration purpose only
12
Time horizon
Time horizon Relevance to NDC process
2030 • Support NDC refinement and implementation
2050 • Support NDC refinement and implementation
• Paris Agreement, Article 4, paragraph 19 • Mid-century, long-term low GHG emission
development strategies
2100 and beyond • Paris Agreement, Article 2 • Global stocktake• Ratcheting up NDCs
13
Sector and GHG coverage
Sector and GHG coverage Relevance to NDC process
Energy-related sub-sectors(power, transport, industry, building, etc)[CO2 only or all GHGs]
• Sub-sectoral contributions to NDC• Sub-sectoral NDC roadmap and
implementation
Energy system[CO2 only or all GHGs]
• Energy sector contribution to NDC• Energy roadmap and implementation
under NDC
Agriculture, waste, and LULUCF[All relevant GHGs]
• Sector contribution to NDC• Sector roadmap and implementation
under NDC
All NDC sectors and GHG • Overall NDC refinement and implementation
14
Mapping against time horizon and coverage of sectors and GHG
Time horizon: 2100 2050 2030
Sector and GHG coverage: all NDC sectors and GHGs energy system with all GHGs energy sub-sectors with all GHGs or CO2 only
Ordinal categorization for illustration purpose only
15
Example 1
Geographical scale: country-level (largely)
Granularity: policy-/technology-specific interventions
Time horizon: 2030 at minimum
Sector and GHG coverage: energy system
Impact indicators: emission, cost-benefit/MAC, investment/financing/resource requirement,
Theoretical foundation and model solution: engineering-economic approach, least-cost, constrained optimization
Ex-ante VS ex-post: Ex-ante [and use consistent approach for ex-post MRV]
Energy sector contribution to NDC target and action plan
16
Example 2
Geographical scale: country-level (largely)
Granularity: policy-specific interventions
Time horizon: 2030 at minimum
Sector and GHG coverage: energy and economic sectors
Impact indicators: emission, fiscal and macroeconomic implications, distributional/social impacts
Theoretical foundation and model solution: macroeconomic with micro foundation, household-level, fiscal policies, complementary measures
Ex-ante VS ex-post: Ex-ante
Economic impact of carbon tax and energy subsidy reform as part of NDC implementation
17
Example 3
Geographical scale: country-level (largely)
Granularity: policy-/technology-specific interventions
Time horizon: actual implementation period
Sector and GHG coverage: energy system
Impact indicators: emission
Theoretical foundation and model solution: engineering-economic approach, impact evaluation, evidence-based and MRV
Ex-ante VS ex-post: Ex-post
Past emission impact of carbon tax in NDC
18
Example 4
Geographical scale: global/multi-country
Granularity: flexible
Time horizon: 2100 or beyond
Sector and GHG coverage: all sectors and all GHGs
Impact indicators: emission
Theoretical foundation and model solution: accounting, simple models, consolidation/aggregation
Ex-ante VS ex-post: Ex-ante
Understanding gap between NDCs and 2C and global potential for increasing ambition
19
Concluding thoughts
Start from understanding NDC and analytical underpinning
Identify critical gaps – analytical/technical capacity and resources, Paris Agreement timeline
Data and assumptions are key to modeling tools
Models evolve overtime, but are path-dependent
Other issues, for example: Dealing with uncertainty (sensitivity analysis, stochastic, robust
decision making, model comparison)
Adaptation linkages (capturing key linkages, IAM)
Be critical of models and results
Trade-offs between models NDC modeling framework
