manpower planning and forecasting assignment

1 Project-Manpower Planning By Antara

MANPOWER PLANNING

Manpower Planning and Forecasting

Manpower planning is the first step in the recruiting and selection process.

1. Decide what positions you’ll have to fill through Manpower planning and forecasting.2. Build a pool of candidates for these jobs by recruiting internal or external candidates.3. Have candidates complete application forms and perhaps undergo an initial screening interview.4. Use selection techniques like tests, background investigations and physical exams to identify viable candidates.5. Decide who to make an offer to, by having the supervisor and perhaps others on the team to interview the candidates.

Planning and forecasting:


Employment or Manpower planning is the process of deciding what positions the firm will have to fill, and how to fill them. Manpower planning covers all future positions from maintenance clerk to CEO. However, most firms call the process of deciding how to fill company’s most important executive jobs succession planning.

Employment planning should be an integral part of a firm’s strategic and HR planning processes. Plans to enter new businesses, build new plants, or reduce costs all influence the types of positions the firm will need to fill. Thus, when JDS Uniphase, which designs, develops, and manufactures market products for the fiber optics market, decided to expand its Melbourne Florida, operations, its managers knew they’d have to expand its employment there from 140 people to almost 750. That meant they needed plans for who to hire, how to screen applicants, and when to put the plans into place.

One big question is whether to fill projected openings from within or from outside the firm. In other words, should you plan to fill positions with current employees or by recruiting from outside? Each option produces its own set of HR plans. Current employees may require training, development, and coaching before they’re ready to fill new jobs. Going outside requires a decisions about what recruiting sources to use, among other things.

Like all good plans, management builds employment plans on basic assumptions about the future. Forecasting generates these assumptions. If you’re planning for employment requirements, you’ll usually need to forecast three things: Manpower needs, the supply of inside candidates, and the supply of outside candidates. We’ll start with Manpower needs.

Forecasting Manpower Needs:

The most common Manpower planning approaches involve the use of simple techniques like ratio analysis or trend analysis to estimate staffing needs based on sales projections and historical sales to Manpower relationships.

The usual process is to forecast revenues first and then estimate the size of the staff required to achieve this sales volume. Here, HR managers use several techniques.

Trend Analysis: Trend analysis means studying variation in your firm’s employment levels over the last few years. You might compute the number of employees in your firm at the end of each of the last five years, or perhaps the number in each subgroup (like sales, production, secretarial, and administrative) at the end of each of those years. The purpose is to identify trends that might continue into the future. Trend analysis can provide an initial estimate, but employment levels rarely depend just on the passage of time. Other factors like changes in sales volume and productivity also affect staffing needs.

Ratio analysis: Another approach, ratio analysis, means making forecasts based on the ratio between (1) some causal factor like sales volume and (2) the number of employees required (for instance number of sales people). For example, suppose as salesperson traditionally generates $500,000 in sales. If the sales revenue to salespeople ration remains the same, you would require


six new salespeople next year (each of whom produces an extra $500,000) to produce an expected extra $3 million in sales.

Like trend analysis ratio analysis assumes that productivity remains about the same – for instance, that each salesperson can’t be motivated to produce much more than $500,000 in sales. If sales productivity were to increase or decrease, the ratio of sales to salespeople would change. A forecast based on historical ratios would then no longer be accurate.

Seven keys to successful HR outsourcing

During the last decade, industry analysts such as Everest, Gartner and others have made some interesting and spot-on observations about HR and payroll outsourcing trends. The HR and payroll outsourcing market is one of the fastest growing segments in business process outsourcing (BPO). The increase in HR outsourcing activity is, in large part, due to two dynamics. First, the full realization that a value-added HR department cannot be all things to all people. The greatest value an HR professional can deliver is in aligning a company's people practices (talent management, recruiting, succession planning, performance alignment, etc.) with its business strategy. And second, the reality that maintaining the technology, process and compliance components of an in-house HR administration solution can be very expensive, requiring expertise that just is not cost effective to maintain.

HR outsourcing solutions are more about business needs than what is happening in the larger economy Ceridian has noticed an increased interest in outsourcing in Michigan over past years. Is it due to the pressure in Michigan's economy? Perhaps. But a good HR leader always evaluates the function's administration model and explores alternative solutions that could make more sense for their business.

HR, payroll and benefits administration typically top the list. Many HR leaders are also starting to consider the administrative requirements of their strategic HR programs, such as recruiting and talent management, compensation planning, and learning management solutions.

Understand potential key HR outsourcing benefits Outsourcing HR, payroll and related administration can help companies grow their business. For small companies, outsourcing HR can be an integral part of helping the business focus its attention on profitability, growth, retaining customers and on new product or service development -- the core elements of making companies successful. In mid-to-large companies, HR administration can be time consuming and complex. Too little attention to HR laws and regulations can cost a company money, time and customer goodwill.

Leverage your provider's expertise Evaluating an outsourcing model can be a good investment of your time and could be instrumental in freeing up the company's HR leader to help find and develop the workforce you need to support customers, enter new markets and improve profitability. Like any investment, though, outsourcing is not likely to net a good return if you are not clear on what you want to


achieve by outsourcing, do not want to take advantage of your outsourcing partner's expertise or are not willing to change your processes and practices to fit your provider's model. While the business may have to give up some of the homegrown, customized HR practices performed today, in the long run it will avoid the excessive cost of providing custom HR solutions.

The following four additional considerations can help guide companies through some of the difficulties of acquiring and implementing an HRO solution.

Know what you want to achieve through an outsourcing partnership Is it cost-savings? Then be sure to have a clear idea of your total expense, including what you are likely to spend on the cost of maintaining or upgrading your current solution. Are you looking for an HR transformation? Then remember that outsourcing your administration is just one component of increasing the added value of your company's HR function. Want to keep your staff, but significantly upgrade processes or technology? Then remember that a good HR service provider can offer you more than one type of outsourcing model.

Do not underestimate the value of your current subject matter experts (SMEs) In a rush to achieve immediate cost savings by outsourcing, some clients redeploy or release their HR subject matter experts. That is a mistake. You need the intimate knowledge that your SMEs have of your current practices and requirements to ensure that your new solution meets the mark.

Dismiss outdated perspectives on client-vendor relationships Old perspectives can leave you or your service provider in an adversarial, win-lose situation. Current thought leaders know that the best relationship is a partnership. You are in it together for the life of the partnership -- you and your service provider should be engaging each other in a robust dialogue about best practices, and you have to be open to modifying your current processes where it makes sense. There is a reason your provider is an expert in this line of business. Take advantage of their expertise. If your service provider does not come to the table prepared to offer you best practices, run -- do not walk -- in the opposite direction! You do not want a service provider to do "your mess for less." You want a partner who is committed to helping you stay current in your thinking about your HR service delivery model.

Recognize the natural tension of change Underestimating or neglecting how people experience change in your company is one of the number one reasons that large projects -- including outsourcing -- fail. How your colleagues experience change becomes the elephant in the room. Everyone knows it is an issue, but no one has a clue how to address it. Not everyone on your team or in your company will be open to the changes an outsourcing service model may bring (and some days, that may include you). To make your outsourcing partnership work, you will need to manage multiple stakeholders, some of whom may have conflicting agendas. You will need to be open to the normal dynamics that occur when you change policies, processes or roles to fit your outsourced model. Select an outsourcing partner that brings experience and a plan to help you work through the challenges and opportunities that outsourcing brings.

Over the past decade, Nicole Sherard-Freeman has experienced both sides of the HR and payroll


outsourcing equation. For the past five years, she has contributed to the growth of Ceridian's human resource outsourcing (HRO) business, working directly with Ceridian clients to ensure their HR and payroll outsourcing relationship delivers the best possible return on their investment. Nicole has also been a "buyer" of HR outsourced solutions. During her tenure with a large financial services company and a boutique HR consulting and administration firm, Sherard-Freeman was directly involved in making decisions to outsource administrative and payroll functions. Her experiences have given her insights into the growing HRO phenomena. For companies contemplating HR outsourcing, Sherard-Freeman has several suggestions for how to make the outsourcing solution a success.

Outsourcing has become an urgent business issue. Firms cannot ignore the potential cost savings in today's business environment. Services are now available for core business processes: customer service, manufacturing, marketing, supply chain management and more. Accounting, HR and IT outsourcing have become much more sophisticated. Web-based communications make outsourcing easier and cheaper. Significant cost savings are available.

However, it's hard to know what to outsource. Too much outsourcing risks losing control over key sources of profit. Too little outsourcing risks being stuck with high costs and low flexibility in an increasingly competitive marketplace. Objective advice is hard to come by - many large consulting firms are major players in the outsourcing business.

Our view is that outsourcing must increase profitability in the short and long term. Before outsourcing, executives should ask two questions:

1) Where do our profits come from? And

2) Where will our future profits come from? Executives can then tackle key issues:

What is critical for us to keep within the firm? Which services are reliable enough to use? What cost savings are available? Does the reward justify the effort? If we do choose to outsource, how should we manage it?

Percipient Consulting can provide an objective evaluation of the benefits and costs of outsourcing for your company. We have advised on multi-billion dollar business process outsourcing, functional (such as HR, accounting and procurement) and IT outsourcing.


Forecasting: Estimating and predicting future conditions & Events and the needs & opportunities associated with them.

Developing

Procedures/Processes

Tasking Budgeting

Developing Objectives

Activities of Planning

Forecasting

Scheduling

Developing StrategiesDeveloping

Policies

Planning: To predetermine a course of action.

(Manpower Planning)


Techniques for Forecasting

Step 1 Determine forecasting period. (First of all, we need to specify period which may be 1 year or more)

Step 2 Determine critical factors to be forecasted. (Than we need to identify critical Factors in the environment internal & external factors like industry trend, market condition, & internal growth plans & requirement of manpower, these factors will affect our Manpower Planning)

Step 3 Select Forecasting methods. (Than after we will select a forecasting method For ex. Managerial Judgment, Trend analysis, and ratio analysis.)

Step 4 Gather information about the predicted environment. (Study the history & current situation of the factor selected, like no of audits & present strength of the firm, data should be reliable information can be collected through survey)

Step 5 State assumptions and develop scenarios. (Develop worst case, best case or most likely case,)

Step 6 Complete Performance (SWOT) analyses. (Estimate how the environment will affect our Manpower planning, positively or negatively. Analyze commitment made for use of resources: purpose, product/services, value, client/customer, summarize strength, weakness, opportunity & threat for each commitment & maximize strength eliminate weaknesses, optimize opportunities & neutralize threat.)

Step 7 Validate or develop a new mission. (Get the understanding & acceptance of your peer customers/client; your direct report group & approval of your manager.)

Developing Specific Objectives: What Measurable results will satisfy the identified need or issue? Results are stated which are measurable and time-limited.

Techniques for Developing Specific Objectives

Step 1 Use a title that summarizes the work to be done. (Increase of 20% Manpower of firm’s present strength)

Step 2 State both the work to be done. (State what & why both, what is stated above & why: To fulfill Firm’s Manpower Requirement)

Step 3 State the results to be achieved. (To fulfill firm’s timely manpower requirement so that we can recruit right no of employee in the firm with in specified time of 1 year.)


Step 4 Verify real problems will be solved if objective is achieved. (To beat timely insufficiency of Human Resource)

Step 5 Verify only one result contained in the objective. (If not, revise as necessary)

Developing Strategies: A General approach to follow, in achieving a mission or objective.

Techniques for Developing Strategies

Step 1 Validate or develop a new mission. (Assure it is still relevant to the needs of Key Peer Group, external customer, i.e. applicants.)

Step 2 Determine type of strategy you need. (Customer/Client Strategy i.e. we will maintain the policies, program, selection, retention practices that assure strong employee relation.)

Step 3 Identify alternative strategies. (Purpose, Customer/client, Product/service, People Strategy.)

Step 4 Evaluate Alternatives.

Step 5 Select the best strategy.

Tasking: Establishing the sequence of work steps to be followed to achieve the objectives.

Techniques for Tasking

Step 1 Identify action steps. (List separately each step you can think of, without trying to define the sequence in which the steps must be accomplished.)

Step 2 Specify what is to be done. (Specify what is needed to be done in each action step.)

Step 3 Arrange the steps in Sequence. (Make sure that whether any step is prerequisite to other or not, whether the completion of one step overlap with the completion of another or not, will any steps be completed simultaneously or not.)

Step 4 Specify accountability for each step. (Indicate accountability for each action Step

in order to make delegation easier & to eliminate misunderstanding about individual work.)


Scheduling: Establishing a time sequence for action steps.

Techniques for Scheduling

Step 1 Consider the principle of the Critical Few. (The small no of causative factors in a

Situation which give rise to the largest part of the results. For example, some 20% of customers

Usually account for about 80% of the sales of a product or service.)

Step 2 Use the Minimax Scheduling technique.

a) Determine how long similar projects have taken in the past.

b) Calculate the minimum time.

c) Calculate the maximum time.

d) Estimate the most likely time.

f) Make trade offers as required.

Budgeting: Allocating the Resources necessary to achieve the objective.

Techniques for Budgeting

Step 1 Select the needed Resources.

(Select the needed resources like Man, Machine, Money, Material, and Information. Although normally these resources are converted into the equivalent amount of money. In case of manpower planning, we need to select resources required to complete the Manpower planning. People (Work force), time, relevant information, and finance.)

Step 2 Allocate the Resources necessary to complete the work and Objective.

Allot no of people, amount of time, relevant information, and finance to complete the work.

-How much time is required to complete the manpower planning project?

-How many people are required to complete the manpower planning project?

-What information is required to complete the manpower planning project?

-How much finance is required to complete the manpower planning project?


Developing Policies: Establishing standing decisions that apply to recurring questions and problems of concern to the enterprise, or a component thereof, in achieving its objectives.

Techniques for Developing Policies

Step 1 Define the issue or problem.(In case of Manpower planning, first we need to define problem that what is the problem, why we want to do manpower planning & i.e. Timely unavailability of Manpower)

Step 2 Gather necessary information on the issue.(Once we define the problem, we need to gather information to develop the policy Exp: No of employee, No of audit assignment handled previous year(s), No of new audit assignments in the coming year, No of employee required per audit.etc.)

Step 3 Secure recommendations from seniors.(Seniors & Departmental head would provide the suggestions & inputs for developing policy)

Step 4 Draft Policy (Develop the policy on the basis of inputs & information)

Step 5 Make revisions (Review the policy)

Step 6 Adopt policies (Implement the policy after final approval)

Step 7 Oversee Policy Implementation (supervise/observe after implementation effects.)

Step 8 Policy Evaluation and Revision or Modification (Evaluate, review & modify the policy, if any need arises.)

Developing Procedures: A standardized & continuing method of performing repetitive work.

Developing Processes: A series of work steps formed by taking input, adding value to it, and providing an output that meets the needs of internal or external customers.


Figure: Manpower Planning Steps

Figure: Process of Manpower Planning


Figure: Manpower Planning Steps

Figure: Manpower Forecasting Methodology


MODEL OF MANPOWER PLANNING

University OPP roll out

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Faculty/Division OPP roll out

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Discussion with Faculty/Division about strategic issues

CONDUCT environmental scan and identify impact REVIEW OPP strategies, services/products, budget, benchmarking information and

KPIs IDENTIFY high level critical capabilities required to meet KPIs DISCUSS Forecasting impact – Staff: student ratios, demographic profile, turnover,

absenteeism, survey results Discuss Supply impact – succession planning, retirement planning

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Discussion with Faculty/Division about the planning process

DEVELOP communication strategies for deployment Develop capabilities matrix – how gap is closed and when IDENTIFY current practices, HR programmes to close gap e.g. job design, Position

Description, flexible employment, development, etc Identify improvements or new HR programmes to develop e.g. graduates Develop and implement HR programmes, practices EVALUATE and review


Manpower Planning Overview

Manpower Planning which is also called as Human Resource Planning consists of putting right number of people, right kind of people at the right place, right time, doing the right things for which they are suited for the achievement of goals of the organization. Human Resource Planning has got an important place in the arena of industrialization. Human Resource Planning has to be a systems approach and is carried out in a set procedure. The procedure is as follows:

1. Analyzing the current manpower inventory 2. Making future manpower forecasts 3. Developing employment programmes 4. Design training programmes

Steps in Manpower Planning

1. Analyzing the current manpower inventory- Before a manager makes forecast of future manpower, the current manpower status has to be analyzed. For this the following things have to be noted-

Type of organization Number of departments Number and quantity of such

departments Employees in these work units

Once these factors are registered by a manager, he goes for the future forecasting.

2. Making future manpower forecasts- Once the factors affecting the future manpower forecasts are known, planning can be done for the future manpower requirements in several work units.

The Manpower forecasting techniques commonly employed by the organizations are as follows:

i. Expert Forecasts: This includes informal decisions, formal expert surveys and Delphi technique.

ii. Trend Analysis: Manpower needs can be projected through extrapolation (projecting past trends), indexation (using base year as basis), and statistical analysis (central tendency measure).

iii. Work Load Analysis: It is dependent upon the nature of work load in a department, in a branch or in a division.

iv. Work Force Analysis: Whenever production and time period has to be analyzed, due allowances have to be made for getting net manpower requirements.


v. Other methods: Several Mathematical models, with the aid of computers are used to forecast manpower needs, like budget and planning analysis, regression, new venture analysis.

3. Developing employment programmes- Once the current inventory is compared with future forecasts, the employment programmes can be framed and developed accordingly, which will include recruitment, selection procedures and placement plans.

4. Design training programmes- These will be based upon extent of diversification, expansion plans, development programmes, etc. Training programmes depend upon the extent of improvement in technology and advancement to take place. It is also done to improve upon the skills, capabilities, knowledge of the workers.

Importance of Manpower Planning

1. Key to managerial functions- The four managerial functions, i.e., planning, organizing, directing and controlling are based upon the manpower. Human resources help in the implementation of all these managerial activities. Therefore, staffing becomes a key to all managerial functions.

2. Efficient utilization- Efficient management of personnels becomes an important function in the industrialization world of today. Setting of large scale enterprises requires management of large scale manpower. It can be effectively done through staffing function.

3. Motivation- Staffing function not only includes putting right men on right job, but it also comprises of motivational programmes, i.e., incentive plans to be framed for further participation and employment of employees in a concern. Therefore, all types of incentive plans become an integral part of staffing function.

4. Better human relations- A concern can stabilize itself if human relations develop and are strong. Human relations become strong trough effective control, clear communication, effective supervision and leadership in a concern. Staffing function also looks after training and development of the work force which leads to co-operation and better human relations.

5. Higher Productivity- Productivity level increases when resources are utilized in best possible manner. Higher productivity is a result of minimum wastage of time, money, efforts and energies. This is possible through the staffing and its related activities ( Performance appraisal, training and development, remuneration)


Need of Manpower Planning

Manpower Planning is a two-phased process because manpower planning not only analyses the current human resources but also makes manpower forecasts and thereby draw employment programmes. Manpower Planning is advantageous to firm in following manner:

1. Shortages and surpluses can be identified so that quick action can be taken wherever required.

2. All the recruitment and selection programmes are based on manpower planning. 3. It also helps to reduce the labor cost as excess staff can be identified and thereby

overstaffing can be avoided. 4. It also helps to identify the available talents in a concern and accordingly training

programmes can be chalked out to develop those talents. 5. It helps in growth and diversification of business. Through manpower planning, human

resources can be readily available and they can be utilized in best manner. 6. It helps the organization to realize the importance of manpower management which

ultimately helps in the stability of a concern.

Every good things have some side effects or you can say whenever you will try to make some good work (planning) some obstacles will made the way rough to success. In Manpower Planning also some obstacles are there. But don’t worry we will discuss them to make sure that our way to success should be smooth.

OBSTACLES OF MANPOWER PLANNING

Following are the main obstacles that organizations face in the process of manpower planning:

1. Under Utilization of Manpower: The biggest obstacle in case of manpower planning is the fact that the industries in general are not making optimum use of their manpower and once manpower planning begins, it encounters heavy odds in stepping up the utilization.

2. Degree of Absenteeism: Absenteeism is quite high and has been increasing since last few years.

3. Lack of Education and Skilled Labor: The extent of illiteracy and the slow pace of development of the skilled categories account for low productivity in employees. Low productivity has implications for manpower planning.

4. Manpower Control and Review: a. Any increase in manpower is considered at the top level of management b. On the basis of manpower plans, personnel budgets are prepared. These act as

control mechanisms to keep the manpower under certain broadly defined limits.

c. The productivity of any organization is usually calculated using the formula:


Productivity = Output / Input

. But a rough index of employee productivity is calculated as follows:

Employee Productivity = Total Production / Total no. of employees

d. Exit Interviews, the rate of turnover and rate of absenteeism are source of vital information on the satisfaction level of manpower. For conservation of Human Resources and better utilization of men studying these condition, manpower control would have to take into account the data to make meaningful analysis.

e. Extent of Overtime: The amount of overtime paid may be due to real shortage of men, ineffective management or improper utilization of manpower. Manpower control would require a careful study of overtime statistics.

Few Organizations do not have sufficient records and information on manpower. Several of those who have them do not have a proper retrieval system. There are complications in resolving the issues in design, definition and creation of computerized personnel information system for effective manpower planning and utilization. Even the existing technologies in this respect are not optimally used. This is a strategic disadvantage.

manpower planning and forecasting assignment

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