Managing coral reefs in the face of climate change: Is there any point?

Dr Paul MarshallDirector – Climate ChangeGreat Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority

Healthy reef

Bleached reef

Damaged reef

Degraded reef

Is management futile?

Pre-climate change

Worst-case scenario

1950 2000 2100

Re

ef c

on

dit

ion

2050

20092009 tempera

ture

Pre-climate change

Worst-case scenario

1950 2000 2100

Re

ef c

on

dit

ion

2050

20092009 tempera

ture

Best-case scenario

RESI

LIEN

CE

RESI

LIEN

CE

Is management futile?

A framework for management action

1.1. Understand problemUnderstand problem

Climate Change Vulnerability AssessmentClimate Change Vulnerability Assessment

2.2. Identify strategies for reducing riskIdentify strategies for reducing risk

Resilience analysis for priority ecosystems/sectorsResilience analysis for priority ecosystems/sectors

3.3. Prioritise adaptation activitiesPrioritise adaptation activities

Climate Change Adaptation PlanClimate Change Adaptation Plan

4.4. Build resilience Build resilience

ImplementationImplementation

Vulnerability

Exposure Sensitivity

Potentialimpact

Adaptivecapacity

Climate Change & the GBR: A Vulnerability Assessment

Introduction

Vulnerability of species and

species groups

Vulnerability of GBR

habitats

Enabling management

The Great Barrier Reef (GBR)Climate and climate change on the GBROceanography and climate changeResilience, climate change & the GBR

Marine microbesPlanktonMacroalgaeSeagrassesMangroves & tidal wetlandsReef-building coralsBenthic invertebratesFishesSharks & RaysSeabirdsMarine reptilesMarine mammals

Coral reefsPelagic systemsCoasts and estuariesIslands and caysGeomorphological featuresPalaeoecology

Industries and communitiesVulnerability & management

implications

Climate Change & the GBR: A Vulnerability Assessment

Prioritising management

Humans

Vulnerability

Exposure Sensitivity

Potentialimpact

Adaptivecapacity

Prioritising management

Resilience Analysis (corals)

Marshall & Schuttenberg 2007

New scienceReducing nutrients increases bleaching threshold

Wooldridge and Done, 2009

Adaptation Plan

Adapting management

1.1. Manage for process, not just stateManage for process, not just state• Restore water quality• Protect key functional groups• Protect refugia/critical habitats• Restore resilience of important components

 Photo © Georgette Douwma / naturepl.com.

2.2. Effectively prioritise effort & resourcesEffectively prioritise effort & resources• Urgency• Importance• Feasibility

Vulnerability

Exposure Sensitivity

Potentialimpact

Adaptivecapacity

Cost Values

ManagementPriority

Adapting management

3.3. Manage for social-ecological resilienceManage for social-ecological resilience• Resource-dependency

• Climate change as a common enemy

• Converting stakeholders to champions

Adapting management

Key messages

1.1. GHGs must be stabilisedGHGs must be stabilised

2.2. Management has never been more Management has never been more importantimportant

3.3. Management needs to adaptManagement needs to adapt• Resilience focus

• Triage

• Partnerships

4.4. Climate change is an opportunity, tooClimate change is an opportunity, too