making scotland’s rural environment more sustainable
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Overview. Making Scotland’s Rural Environment More Sustainable. Steve Albon. Aims and Thematic Objectives. Integrative research based around Scotland’s Natural Resources. To help - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Making Scotland’s Rural Environment More Sustainable
Steve Albon
Overview
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Aims and Thematic Objectives
Integrative research based around Scotland’s Natural Resources
To help• determine key factors influencing function and resilience
and which link to sustainability of Scotland’s ‘quality’ brand.
• improve knowledge on hazard identification, the threat that various risks pose, and solutions to adapt and mitigate.
• develop appropriate balance of land use: agriculture/forestry, environmental services, recreation, tourism, wildlife refuge.
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Addressing ‘Big’ Policy Issues
Sustainability of Rural Scotland
Protecting Biodiversity
Responding to Climate Change
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Sustainable Development (SD) Guiding Principles
• Living within environmental limits
• Ensuring a healthy and just society
• Achieving a sustainable economy
• Promoting good governance • Using sound science
responsibly
Wise use of Environment
Social justice
Economic prosperity
SUSTAINABILITY
Environmental Science
Social Science
Economic Science
SUSTAINABILITY
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Conceptual Frameworks for ‘SD’
Concept of resilience and adaptive cycles
(e.g. Gunderson and Holling, 2001)
Resilience: the capacity of a system to absorb perturbations and remain in a functionally similar state
Multiple stable states: a set of ‘functionally similar’ states for a system
Basins of attraction
Redrawn from Ritz et al 2003
PERTURB
RE
SP
ON
SE
TIME
RESILIENCE
RESISTANCE
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Structure of Talk
• Background
• Responding to Climate Change– Conservation of soil
carbon
• Protecting Biodiversity– Species Loss– Habitat Loss
• Sustainable Rural Development– Values and attitudes
Our Approach
• Detecting change
• Understanding key drivers and mechanisms
• Stakeholder involvement
• Integrated Modelling
• Scenario analysis
• Supporting policy development
• Knowledge Exchange
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1. Responding to Climate Change
Mid-Summer Day ChallengeCabinet Secretary for Finance
and Sustainable Growth John Swinney announced
“We will introduce a Scottish Climate Change Bill and consult on a mandatory long-term target to reduce our emissions by 80% by 2050”.
• equivalent to reductions of 3% each year.
• consult on proposals for targets based on average annual reductions over a 5 year period.
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A Low Carbon Rural Economy?
Adaptation and mitigation challenges
• Rural - Urban connections: carbon (C) footprint of transport
• Land use change to reduce Green House Gas emissions
• Feasibility of biomass crop and renewable energy
• Practices to conserve C and/or sequester more C
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Conservation of Soil Carbon
• Erosion (water and wind)• Floods and landslides• Decline soil organic matter
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Loss of Soil Organic Matter
Survey in England and Wales found significant rate of loss of soil organic matter (SOM) (Bellamy et al 2005)
• Scotland no contemporary estimates of SOM but more dissolved organic carbon (DOC) is being found in our lakes and rivers
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Understanding Changes in DOC
• Increases seen in 80% of 160 sites in Scotland
• Trend consistent in space & time - climate driver – ToC
• But increase in rate varies within & between catchments
• Geology, Soils, Land Use?
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Need Multi-disciplinary Science
Silica concentration
Nit
rate
co
nce
ntr
ati
on
Sources of flow
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Latest Statistical Methods
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
Date
Pro
po
rtio
n
OF GW SSF
25/4/00 26/4/00 27/4/00 28/4/00 30/4/00 1/5/00
Comparison of Proportions without Flow as a Covariate - 25/04/000
.00
.20
.40
.60
.8
Date
Pro
po
rtio
n
OF GW SSF
25/4/00 26/4/00 27/4/00 28/4/00 30/4/00 1/5/00
Comparison of Proportions with Flow as a Covariate - 25/04/00
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National Soils Inventory Scotland
Is Soil Carbon Changing?
Key points:• Data captured 1978-1987• 5 km grid (2826 sites), analytical data at 10 km points (721 sites)• Objective site selection - area estimates• Scottish National Soils Archive
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Monitoring Change in Soil C
To detect change
• in key soil properties e.g: carbon
• Compare sampling methods e.g: NSRI, CEH
• Test suitability of new indicators e.g: bulk density, porosity, measures of biodiversity
20 km re-sampling, similar to EU, as before aligned to OS Grid
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2. Protecting Biodiversity
Scotland’s Biodiversity Strategy
• Species and Habitat – halting loss
• People – raising awareness
• Landscapes & Ecosystems – enhancing biodiversity
• Integration and Coordination – framework for inclusion in all decision making
• Knowledge – best new and existing information for stakeholders
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Reversing loss of biodiversity
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Species solutions need research
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Priority Species for Action
Freshwater Pearl Mussel
Woolly Willow Salix lanata
Small Cow Wheat Melampyrum sylvaticum
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Across Scotland area heather moor reduced by 25% since 1945
Habitat loss & Landscape change
Expansion of forestry
Mammalian herbivores can be landscape engineers
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L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
West Grampian, 20020
20
60
04
0 n = 969
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
South Ross, 2000
02
06
00
40 n = 2041
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
Gairloch, 1998
020
600
40
n = 2651
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
North Ross, 2001
02
06
00
40 n = 819
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
West Sutherland, 2000
02
06
00
40 n = 836
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
Midwest, 2003
02
06
00
40 n = 719
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
South Loch Tay, 1998
02
06
00
40 n = 3437
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
Northern, 1999
02
06
00
40 n = 1182
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
East Sutherland, 2000
02
06
00
40 n = 972
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
Cairngorm-Speyside, 1997
02
06
00
40 n = 2072
L L/M M M/H H
Grazing Impact Class
P
erce
ntag
e
Angus, 1999
02
06
00
40 n = 1067
How Grazing Impact Varies
and which species?
Also cattle, rabbits, mountain hare, red grouse
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-0
.10
.10
.3
Me
an
Ch
an
ge
in
Pro
ba
bility
Sheep Cattle Rabbits Hares Deer Grouse-0
.10
.10
.3
Me
dia
n C
ha
ng
e in
Pro
ba
bility
Sheep Cattle Rabbits Hares Deer Grouse
M
ed
ian
pre
dic
ted
im
pact
Impact varies with species
And density
R2 = 0.2845
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Deer density km-2
Imp
act
Sco
re
Coarse grassland
R2 = 0.6891
0
1
2
3
4
5
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Deer density km-2
Im
pac
t S
core
Dwarf-shrub heath
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3. Sustainable Rural Development
• What sort of landscape do we want?
• Can we mitigate unwanted change?
• How can we adapt our demands to ensure the viability of rural livelihoods?
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Diversification for ‘SD’
Scientific American
Stewardship payments• Maintaining biodiversity
• Carbon conservation – in particular soil C
• Renewable power
• Sustainable timber
• Water resources – pollution and flood control
• Food security - premium
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Human-Environment Interactions
Societal values
HUMAN DIMENSION
ECOLOGICAL DIMENSION
Structures Processes
Ecosystem functions
Boundary conditions
What are key threats to resource & do we understand change processes?
What do people value about a resource and the changes to it?
• Provisioning services– benefits from provision
food, fibre or fuel• Regulating services
– benefits from erosion control, water purification
• Cultural services – benefits related to
recreation
Eco
syst
em s
ervi
ces
What are relevant issues that emerge from the interaction?
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Values, Attitudes and Behaviour
Beliefs/Values
AttitudesFocus Groups• Mountaineers
• Birdwatchers• Tourists
– within Scotland– outside
Scotland• Local residents• Foresters• Farmers
Human-Nature relationship
“sense of place”
Values attributed to ‘balance’ of
natureBenefits & function of biodiversity
• Emerging issues not based on expert knowledge alone, explicitly include ‘lay’ stakeholders’ perceptions
• Lay stakeholders’ understanding contingent on translation process and perception, prior knowledge and experience
• Not all ecosystem functions easily ‘translatable’ to allow lay stakeholders to make meaningful value judgements!
• General view on biodiversity management
• Specific attitude towards particular measures
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Institutions and Property Rights
Feasibility of Exclusion YES NO
Riv
alr
y in
con
su
mp
tion
YES
NO
• Sheep farm• Estate quarry
• Deer population
• Crofter’s grazings
• Landscape
Private Common Pool
Club
Public
Interactions with Governance • Economic – market orientated
• Regulatory - fines
• Voluntary - cooperation
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Stakeholder Involvement
• Who is currently involved?
• What interest do they represent?
• How is their involvement shaping the plan?
• How can conflicts of interest be resolved ?
• Innovative, interactive process – see this afternoon’s workshop!
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Summary: Science Integral to ‘SD’
Programme 3
Environmental
Economic
Social
Analys
ing
Change
Knowledge
of Processes
Reduce Uncertainty
Stakeholder Involvement
Evalu
atin
g
Policy
Development of Indicators
Developing
Intervention
Strategies
Scenario analysis
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Acknowledgements
Work Package CoordinatorsHelaina BlackIain BrownAlison HesterRupert HoughSimon LanganKeith MatthewsRobin PakemanAlan RenwickAndy Vinten
Speakers & Workshop Facilitators
Kirsty BlackstockColin CampbellBob FerrierAlison HesterWendy KenyonAlan Renwick
Graphics & LogisticsJohn BrownPat CarnegieJane LundLorraine Robertson
All the Poster authors/presenters
Staff of Main Research ProvidersProgramme 3 Advisory Board
Michael Usher, Maggie Gill and Ian Bainbridge