mainstreet - election 2015 - final weekend

7/23/2019 Mainstreet - Election 2015 - Final Weekend

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METHODOLOGY

Mainstreet Research surveyed a random sample of 5,063 Canadiansby Smart IVR™ on October 17-18, 2015. A mixture of landlines and cell

phones were surveyed. Results were weighed by language, ageand gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.This poll has a

ATTRIBUTION

Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright.The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republishedwith full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.

REGIONAL MARGINS OF ERROR

ATLANTIC+/- 4.83%, 19 times out of 20

QUÉBEC+/- 3.12%, 19 times out of 20

ONTARIO+/- 3.17%, 19 times out of 20

MANITOBA

+/- 3.77%, 19 times out of 20SASKATCHEWAN

+/- 3.94%, 19 times out of 20ALBERTA

+/- 3.7%, 19 times out of 20BRITISH COLUMBIA

+/- 3.67%, 19 times out of 20



FINAL MAINSTREET POLL MOST ACCURATE ON MAJOR PARTIES

October 21, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – Mainstreet's analysis of election results has found Mainstreet was most accurate when it came to the Liberals, Conservatives & NDP.

We are very proud of the work we produced this election campaign," said Quito Maggi, presidentMainstreet Research. "Pollsters, in general, called this election correctly. I want to congratulate the opollsters and their staff for all of their hard work and their results. Collectively the industry was corr

And of course, I am happy to say that Mainstreet was the most accurate when you compare our resulthe final numbers for the Conservatives, Liberals and NDP."

Mainstreet submitted final numbers to Postmedia and Polling Aggregator threehundredeight.com

October 18th, 2015.

They were:Liberals - 39.0 (Actual: 39.5%)Conservatives - 31.9 (Actual: 31.9%)NDP - 20.9 (Actual: 19.7%)

This represents a total variance of 1.7%, with each number within the poll's margin of error. Mainstreet he lowest amount of variance for the three major parties of any pollster.

On October 13th, we predicted a Liberal majority. There were some who did not believe us then, and wtill did not believe us even after Atlantic Canada began reporting results. We did not hedge on

prediction because we believe in our work - we were so sure we even issued a press release re-affirmour public prediction. We look forward to continuing to poll Canadians," finished Maggi.

Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal Majority government.

ABOUT MAINSTREET RESEARCHMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels

government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of puopinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in BriColumbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate pol

firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet whe only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

-30-

Available for interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, President, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, 613-698-5524, [email protected]



CONSERVATIVENDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOIS

GREEN PARTY

BC34%26%29%

x

11%

AB57%13%26%

x

4%

SK44%30%21%

x

5%

MB37%19%36%

x

8%

QC20%26%36%14%

4%

ON32%18%47%

x

4%

Atlantic19%21%57%

x

3%

CPC NDP LPC GPCBQ

CONSERVATIVENDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTY

32%21%39%3%

5%

-1%-%+1%-1%

-

LEANING & DECIDED

3 2

%

2 1

%

3 9

%

3 % 5 %



The Question Was:“If the Federal Election were today,which party would you support?”

Party and Leader Name were givenie. The Conservative Party led byStephen Harper

AB54%12%

24%x

3%9%703

SK39%27%

18%x

3%14%620

MB33%17%

33%x

6% 9%674

Atla1617%

49x3%15%412

CONSERVATIVE (CPC)NDPLIBERAL (LPC)

BLOC QUÉBECOIS (BQ)GREEN PARTY (GPC)UNDECIDED (UD)

29%19%35%

3%4%9%

-1% -+1%

-1% --1%

FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION - INCLUDING UNDECIDED VOTERS

CONSERVATIVENDP

LIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDEDSAMPLE

QC19%

23%

32%12%3%10%987

CONSERVATIVE

NDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDEDSAMPLE

ON29%16%

43%x

3%9%955

BC32%24%

27%x

11%6%712

Male31%

19%37%3%4%8%

2264

Fem28%

19%343%5%11%

279

50-6430%

18%37%

3%3%11%

1599

65+31%

16%35%4%3%11%

1698

18-3426%

22%35%2%7%8%

533

35-4931%

19%35%3%4%9%

1233



FEDERAL VOTING INTENTION - INCLUDING UNDECIDED VOTERS

UDCPC NDP LPC GPCBQ

2 9 %

1 9 %

3 5 %

3 %

4 %

9 %



How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal Election?

Voted in the Advance Poll or by Special BallotAbsolutely certain to vote

Likely to voteMight vote

Unlikely to vote

And if the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?

Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper

NDP led by Tom MulcairLiberal Party led by Justin Trudeau

Bloc Québécois led by Gilles DuceppeGreen Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided

And which party are you leaning towards voting for? [Undecided Only]

Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperNDP led by Tom Mulcair

Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauBloc Québécois led by Gilles Duceppe

Green Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your min

before the next election? [Selected a Party Q2]

Strong supporterMight change your mind

Don’t know

And who would be your second choice? [Might Change/Don’t Know Only]

SCRIPT



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© 2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights res

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all th

evels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadpublic affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshotpublic opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Libgovernment in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet

been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoelection. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majo

government in the 2015 federal election.

mainstreet - election 2015 - final weekend

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