mainstreet october national

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 5,197 Canadians by Smart IVR™ on September 30- October 1st, 2015. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Results were weighed

by language, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.

CONSERVATIVES LEAD NATIONALLY

October 6, 2015 (Toronto, ON) – A new national Mainstreet/Postmedia poll conducted before Friday night’s TVA debate, finds the Conservatives holding onto a lead with the NDP slipping. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of error of 1.36%, 19 times out of 20.

“The National stalemate that dominated the vast majority of this election campaign appears to be at an end,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “As the campaign enters the final two weeks, the Conservatives (37%) have opened up a substantial lead over the Liberals (29%). The Liberals have now also opened up a substantial lead over the NDP who have dropped to just 24% among decided and leaning voters.” “In recent weeks we have looked at some regions and Provinces and those results seemed to point to a significant decrease in support for the NDP and a rise for both the Conservatives and Liberals. When we look across the National picture, we find these regional gains have favoured the Conservatives.”

“In British Columbia, where early campaign polls showed a significant NDP lead, we found them trailing the Conservatives and a surging Liberal vote, these numbers reflect a slight comeback from those numbers but continued Conservative and Liberal strength. British Columbia will be home to the most close three way races we can expect to see on October 19th.”

“In Ontario, we found that provincial NDP supporters were the least brand loyal to their federal cousins and had dropped well back of the Conservatives and Liberals. These results continue to show weakness for the NDP and Tom Mulcair in Ontario where a full third of the seats are found. Regional races here will be the key, and many close races could be decided with ground game e�orts in these closing two weeks.”

“Quebec is now arguably a four way race between a sagging NDP and the surging Liberals, Conservatives and Bloc Quebecois. The vote in Quebec is the most volatile of any across Canada and it will be hard to get a clear picture of ballot results until just days before the election. The only thing that is clear, is that the NDP stranglehold on support they enjoyed for most of this campaign has been reduced significantly. ”

“Atlantic Canada continues to show strong support for the Liberal party with the NDP and Conservatives in a close 2nd and 3rd position. It is hard to imagine anything less than a dominant election day performance by the Liberals across the Atlantic provinces with the NDP and Conservatives holding on to just a few seats.”

A2

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.

“Alberta will be the most interesting province to follow on election night as the province wide picture masks some interesting regional races in both Calgary and Edmonton. The NDP surge that began with a victory for Rachel Notley's NDP here may have come to an end, but there are still pockets of strength in Edmonton. Expect both the Liberals and the NDP to make gains in Alberta but we still expect the vast majority of seats here to remain Conservative.”

“In Saskatchewan we find a continued lead by the Conservatives and the NDP continue in second place, with some signs of life for the surging Liberals. We would expect to see competitive races mostly in the Saskatoon and Regina ridings, with the Conservatives largely dominating rural Saskatchewan.”

“Manitoba is another Province where we expect the Liberals to make significant gains, they continue to close on the leading Conservatives and break away from a sagging NDP. Expect some big upsets here on October 19th based on what we are seeing today, a few weeks out from election day,” he finished.

-30- About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public a�airs. Di�erentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoral election.

-30-

Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - [email protected]

A3

A4

CONSERVATIVENDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTY

37%24%29%4%7%

CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTY

BC29%33%28%

x10%

AB67%12%17%

x4%

SK49%29%17%

x5%

MB45%17%35%

x3%

QC21%32%27%16%5%

ON42%18%32%

x8%

Atlantic22%29%44%

x6%

CPC NDP LPC GPC BQ UD

+6%-6%

--%+1%

CPC NPD LPC BQ GPC

37%

24%

29%

4% 7%

A5

CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDEDSAMPLE

BC25%28%24%

x9%13%794

AB61%11%16%

x4%9%459

SK37%23%15%

x3%21%583

MB38%12%30%

x2%18%626

QC19%27%23%13%4%13%1034

ON36%15%26%

x7%16%1290

CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDED

Certain35%19%24%3%5%13%

Might17%14%38%0%2%

29%

Likely23%24%23%3%10%18%

Unlikely6%26%12%7%10%40%

CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTYUNDECIDEDSAMPLE

18-3429%24%23%4%9%12%436

35-4933%20%22%3%5%17%976

50-6431%18%27%3%5%15%1754

65+39%16%26%2%3%14%2031

Female30%22%23%3%5%17%

2824

Male35%18%26%3%6%12%

2373

The Question Was:“If the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?”

Party and Leader Name were givenie. The Conservative Party led by Stephen Harper

CONSERVATIVE (CPC)NDPLIBERAL (LPC)BLOC QUÉBECOIS (BQ)GREEN PARTY (GPC)UNDECIDED (UD)

32%20%24%3%6%15%

+6%-4%

--

+1%-3%

Atlantic18%21%35%

x5%

20%411

A6


CPC NDP LPC BQ GPC UD

32%

20%

24%

3% 6% 15%

A7

Regional Margins of Error:British Columbia +/- 3.48%

Alberta +/- 4.57%Saskatchewan: +/- 4.06%

Manitoba: +/- 3.92%

British Columbia Alberta Saskatchewan Manitoba

A8

Regional Margins of Error:Ontario +/- 2.73%Quebec +/- 3.05%Atlantic +/- 4.83%

Ontario Québec Atlantic

A9

CONSERVATIVE NDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTY

BC29%32%28%

x11%

AB67%12%17%

x4%

SK47%29%19%

x5%

MB46%15%36%

x3%

QC22%32%27%15%5%

ON43%18%31%

x8%

Atlantic22%27%44%

x6%

CONSERVATIVENDPLIBERALBLOC QUÉBECOISGREEN PARTY

38%23%29% 4% 7%

+6%-6%

---

CPC NDP LPC BQ GPC

38%

23%

29%

4% 7%

WHICH PARTY ARE YOU LEANING TOWARDS? (UNDECIDED ONLY)

A10


18-344%19%17%3%8%

57%

35-4923%18%9%3%3%

42%

50-6412%10%18%1%5%51%

65+11%10%17%2%5%57%

Female13%14%16%3%5%51%

Male13%16%14%1%4%51%


BC13%22%11%x

3%51%

AB7%6%3%x

3%81%

SK27%14%3%x

3%53%

MB7%15%3%x

5%69%

QC5%16%13%10%4%52%

ON18%12%22%

x7%41%

Atlantic7%17%13%

x6%

63%


13%

15%

15%

2%5%

51%

A11

Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you wil change you mind before the next election?

CONSERVATIVESTRONG 82%MIGHT CHANGE MIND 15%DON’T KNOW 3%

NDPSTRONG 69%MIGHT CHANGE MIND 25%DON’T KNOW 6%

LIBERALSTRONG 63%MIGHT CHANGE MIND 29%DON’T KNOW 8%

And who would be your second choice?

A12


CPC NDP LPC BQ GPC UD

10%

34%

24%

4% 9% 20%

A13

Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Canada has increased or decreased in the last few years?

INCREASEDSTAYED THE SAMEDECREASEDNOT SURESAMPLE

18-3447%22%13%17%436

35-4946%19%13%22%976

50-6439%22%15%23%1754

65+41%21%12%26%2031

Female46%18%14%23%2824

Male42%25%13%20%2373


BC37%22%18%23%794

AB57%20%6%17%459

SK59%18%5%18%583

MB58%21%5%16%626

QC40%24%17%19%1034

ON41%23%14%22%1290

Atlantic53%18%15%14%411

Increased Stayed The Same Decreased Not Sure

44%

21%

13%

22%

A14

Thinking about Canada’s immigration system, do you approve or disapprove of making family reunification a priority?

STRONGLY APPROVESOMEWHAT APPROVESOMEWHAT DISAPPROVESTRONGLY DISAPPROVENOT SURESAMPLE

18-3429%17%19%17%18%436

35-4932%29%9%11%18%976

50-6431%29%12%11%18%1754

65+31%26%13%9%21%2031

Female30%27%12%12%19%

2824

Male31%23%14%13%18%2373


BC36%25%12%9%18%794

AB23%25%18%17%18%459

SK24%24%18%16%18%583

MB22%25%19%17%17%626

QC30%29%13%11%16%1034

ON26%27%15%12%19%1290

Atlantic25%25%11%28%11%411

APPROVE: 55% DISAPPROVE: 25% NOT SURE: 19%

55%

25%

19%

A15

And in your opinion, should immigration be kept at its current level, increased or decreased?

INCREASEDDECREASEDKEEPING AT CURRENT LEVELNOT SURESAMPLE

18-3434%31%28%7%436

35-4931%28%32%9%976

50-6433%27%31%9%

1754

65+34%26%29%11%

2031

Female33%27%29%10%2824

Male33%29%31%8%

2373


BC39%27%24%10%794

AB23%38%25%15%459

SK18%37%21%23%583

MB32%38%18%12%626

QC38%24%32%6%

1034

ON32%24%35%8%

1290

Atlantic34%38%22%6%411

Increased Keeping It At Current LevelDecreased Not Sure

33%

28%

30%

9%

A16

Recently there has been discussion about the Niqab, a veil worn by some Muslim women which covers the face apart from the eyes. Some have argued Musim women should not be able to wear the Niqab during citizenship ceremonies saying it is uncanadian. Others have argued they should be able to and that the government should not tell women what to wear or not. In your opinion, should the Niqab be allowed at citizenship ceremonies, or not?

YESNONOT SURESAMPLE

18-3427%57%16%436

35-4926%61%12%976

50-6427%63%10%1754

65+27%62%11%

2031

Female27%60%13%

2824

Male27%61%12%

2373

YESNONOT SURESAMPLE

BC27%63%10%794

AB29%58%13%459

SK23%56%21%583

MB23%68%9%626

QC12%70%18%1034

ON28%59%13%1290

Atlantic29%58%13%411

Yes No Not Sure

27%

61%

13%

A17

If Conservative Leader Stephen Harper wins the most seats in the election but not a majority, do you think he should be able to govern or should the opposition parties defeat his government?

HARPER SHOULD FORM GOVERNMENTOPPOSITION SHOULD DEFEAT GOVERNMENT NOT SURESAMPLE

18-3432%51%17%436

35-4949%37%14%976

50-6442%43%15%1754

65+46%35%20%2031

Female41%42%18%

2824

Male43%43%14%2373

HARPER SHOULD FORM GOVERNMENTOPPOSITION SHOULD DEFEAT GOVERNMENT NOT SURESAMPLE

BC34%47%19%794

AB75%18%7%459

SK37%41%21%583

MB38%44%18%626

QC38%50%12%1034

ON41%43%16%1290

ATL23%46%31%411

Harper Government Opposition Government Not Sure

42%

42%

16%

A18

If a minority government is elected – and defeated in the House of Commons, in your opinion what should happen next? Should there be a new election or should the governor general give a di�erent party an opportunity to form government?

NEW ELECTIONGIVE NEW PARTY A CHANCE NOT SURESAMPLE

18-3422%46%32%436

35-4930%45%25%976

50-6429%49%22%1754

65+24%49%27%2031

Female27%46%27%2824

Male26%49%25%2373

NEW ELECTIONGIVE NEW PARTY A CHANCE NOT SURESAMPLE

New Election Give New Party A Chance Not Sure

BC25%49%25%794

AB39%30%32%459

SK40%29%31%583

MB39%28%32%626

QC25%49%27%1034

ON29%44%27%1290

Atlantic24%56%21%411

26%

47%

26%

A19

And would you approve or disapprove of a coalition government of the Liberals and NDP led by Tom Mulcair?


18-3425%20%18%25%12%436

35-4923%21%14%26%15%976

50-6423%18%17%26%16%1754

65+18%16%22%28%15%2031

Female23%17%17%26%17%

2824

Male23%21%18%26%11%

2373


BC24%21%15%24%16%794

AB9%13%20%49%8%459

SK9%12%21%48%9%583

MB8%12%23%47%9%626

QC26%24%20%18%12%1034

ON21%21%20%25%13%1290

Atlantic46%19%13%14%8%411


42%

44%

14%

A20

And would you approve or disapprove of a coalition government of the NDP and Liberals led by Justin Trudeau?


18-3416%32%17%27%8%436

35-4925%18%16%28%13%976

50-6427%20%15%27%11%

1754

65+25%15%18%30%12%2031

Female24%21%15%27%13%

2824

Male23%23%17%29%9%

2373


BC24%23%16%25%13%794

AB13%16%18%47%7%459

SK12%16%17%49%6%583

MB13%15%17%48%8%626

QC25%27%18%22%7%

1034

ON24%23%16%28%9%

1290

Atlantic48%21%11%17%4%411


45%

44%

11%

A21

How likely are you to vote in the upcoming Federal Election?

Absolutely certain to voteLikely to vote

Might vote Unlikely to vote

And if the Federal Election were today, which party would you support?

Conservative Party led by Stephen HarperNDP led by Tom Mulcair

Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Bloc Québécois led by Gilles Duceppe

Green Party led by Elizabeth MayUndecided

And which party are you leaning towards voting for? [Undecided Only]


Liberal Party led by Justin Trudeau Bloc Québécois led by Gilles Duceppe


Do you consider yourself to be a strong supporter of this party, or is there a chance you will change your mind before the next election? [Selected a Party Q2]

Strong supporter Might change your mind

Don’t know

And who would be your second choice? [Might Change/Don’t Know Only]


Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauBloc Québécois led by Gilles Duceppe


A22

Do you think the number of immigrants coming to Canada has increased or decreased in the last few years?

IncreasedStayed The Same

DecreasedNot Sure

Thinking about Canada’s immigration system, do you approve or disapprove of making family reunification a priority?

Strongly approveSomewhat approve

Somewhat disapproveStrongly disapprove

Not sure

And in your opinion, should immigration be kept at its current level, increased or decreased?

IncreasedDecreased

Keeping It At It’s Current LevelNot Sure

Recently there has been discussion about the Niqab, a veil worn by some Muslim women which covers the face apart from the eyes. Some have argued Musim women should not be able to wear the Niqab during citizenship ceremonies saying it is uncanadian. Others have

argued they should be able to and that the government should not tell women what to wear or not. In your opinion, should the Niqab be allowed at citizenship ceremonies, or not?

YesNo

Not sure

If Conservative Leader Stephen Harper wins the most seats in the election but not a majority, do you think he should be able to govern or should the opposition parties defeat his

government?

Stephen Harper should govern if he wins the most seats but not a majorityThe Opposition Parties should defeat his Government if he does not win a majority

Not Sure

A23

If a minority government is elected – and defeated in the House of Commons, in your opinion what should happen next? Should there be a new election or should the governor general give

a di�erent party an opportunity to form government?

A New ElectionThe Governor General should give a di�erent party a chance to form Government

Not Sure

And would you approve or disapprove of a coalition government of the Liberals and NDP led by Tom Mulcair?



Not sure

And would you approve or disapprove of a coalition government of the NDP and Liberals led by Justin Trudeau?



Not sure

CONNECT WITH US: WEBSITE mainstreetresearch.ca

TWITTER @MainStResearch

FACEBOOK fb.com/mainstresearch

© 2015 Mainstreet Research. All rights reserved

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public a�airs.

Di�erentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta (2015), a majority Liberal government in British Columbia, and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Most recently, Mainstreet was the most accurate pollster of November’s Toronto mayoral election.

mainstreet october national

Documents

significant ndp lead

sagging ndp

ndp stranglehold

provincial ndp supporters

surging liberals

election campaign

substantial lead

close races