mainstreet - cpc leader april 2016

Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 4,998 Canadians by Chimera IVR™ from April 26-27, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 1.39%, 19 times out of 20. Conservative Leadership Race margin of error: +/- 2.4%, 19 times out of 20. Total Conservative respondents: 1,676.

METHODOLOGY

CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP

AMBROSE WOULD SHAKE UP CONSERVATIVE LEADERSHIP RACE

April 29, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the Liberal party would be the runaway winner if an election were held today. Meanwhile, Rona Ambrose would shake up the Conservative Party leadership race if she were allowed to enter. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.39%, 19 times out of 20.

“It appears that the honeymoon with Justin Trudeau continues,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “The Liberals now enjoy the support of 49% of Canadians with the Conservatives holding fairly steady at 30%, up 3%. The NDP and Thomas Mulcair keep testing new bottoms and remain at 14%. The Bloc and Greens remain steady with 3% and 4% respectively. If an election were held today these numbers would translate into a mega-majority for the Liberals.”

“We took a look at the emerging Conservative leadership race asking decided and leaning Conservative Party Voters about their impressions of key Conservative Party personalities. With Conservatives beginning to discuss the possibility of allowing their interim leader to run in the leadership we tested Rona Ambrose among the current potential field of candidates. Were she to enter, she would enter the race with a significant lead (26%). Her potential candidacy appears to negatively affect Lisa Raitt, and Kelly Leitch whom see their support greatly diminished with her inclusion in the field.”

“Possible contenders Peter McKay and Kevin O'Leary continue to have significant support, coming in 2nd and 3rd to Ambrose. Tony Clement and Maxime Bernier round out the top five.”

“Approvals for Rona Ambrose among Conservative supporters are impressive, by far the highest among all the contenders and possible contenders.”

“The Conservative leadership will not be decided by Conservative voters, it will be decided by members who pay a fee. These results do act as a barometer for support but experienced candidates with established networks of supporters can outperform public support significantly. These numbers are instructive in that they show the potential for all candidates at a particular moment and time among Conservative Party voters,” finished Maggi.

Note: Questions about the Conservative Party leadership race were only posed to decided and leaning Conservative Party voters (refer to script page, A14).

About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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Available for Interview from Ottawa: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - [email protected]

"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.

A2

If a Federal Election were held today, which party would you support?

A3

CPC NDP LPC GPCBQ UD

Libe

ral

Cons

erva

tive

ND

P

BQ

Gre

en

Not

Sur

e

45%

27%

13% 2%

4% 10%


A4

Liberal

Conservative

NDP

BQ

Green

Undecided

Sample

18-34

48%

22%

15%

3%

5%

8%

594

35-49

44%

26%

11%

3%

5%

11%

1,264

50-64

46%

29%

10%

2%

3%

9%

1,506

65+

39%

31%

12%

2%

2%

13%

1,634

Male

45%

28%

12%

2%

4%

9%

2,435

Female

45%

25%

13%

3%

4%

11%

2,563

Liberal

Conservative

NDP

BQ

Green

Undecided

Sample

BC

39%

25%

14%

0%

11%

12%

875

AB

31%

46%

8%

0%

2%

13%

856

Prairies

44%

31%

9%

0%

2%

14%

674

ON

53%

25%

11%

0%

3%

8%

1,188

QC

41%

19%

17%

10%

2%

10%

896

ATL

47%

27%

10%

0%

5%

11%

509

Nat.

45%

27%

13%

2%

4%

10%

4,998

Decided and Leaning

A5

CPC NDP LPC GPCBQ

Libe

ral

Cons

erva

tive

ND

P

BQ

Gre

en

49%

30%

14% 3%

4%

Decided and Leaning

A6

Liberal

Conservative

NDP

BQ

Green

Sample

18-34

52%

23%

16%

3%

5%

577

35-49

47%

31%

14%

3%

5%

1,152

50-64

50%

31%

12%

2%

4%

1,463

65+

46%

36%

13%

3%

3%

1,528

Male

48%

32%

13%

2%

5%

2,347

Female

50%

28%

14%

3%

4%

2,373

Liberal

Conservative

NDP

BQ

Green

Sample

BC

44%

27%

18%

0%

12%

830

AB

35%

52%

11%

0%

3%

831

Prairies

49%

36%

11%

0%

4%

645

ON

56%

29%

11%

0%

4%

1,059

QC

47%

20%

19%

11%

2%

847

ATL

52%

30%

12%

0%

6%

508

Nat.

49%

30%

14%

3%

4%

4,720

Favourability Ratings

A7

Ambrose

Bernier

Chong

Clement

Kenney

Leitch

MacKay

O'Leary

Raitt

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

68% 11% 12% 9%

18% 13% 30% 39%

19% 34% 44%

30% 19% 26% 25%

35% 12% 31% 22%

12% 12% 42% 34%

53% 15% 22% 10%

48% 18% 19% 15%

14% 5% 27% 54%

Approve Disapprove Not Sure Not Familiar

Conservative Leadership with Ambrose as Candidate [Conservative Decided/Leaning Only]

A8

Ron

a Am

bros

e

Max

ime

Bern

ier

Mic

hael

Cho

ng

Tony

Cle

men

t

Jaso

n Ke

nney

Kelli

e Le

itch

Pete

r Mac

Kay

Kevi

n O

’Lea

ry

Lisa

Rai

tt

Som

eone

Els

e

Und

ecid

ed

26%

6% 3% 7% 6% 2% 16%

20% 1%

3% 10%

A9

Rona Ambrose

Maxime Bernier

Michael Chong

Tony Clement

Jason Kenney

Kellie Leitch

Peter MacKay

Kevin O’Leary

Lisa Raitt

Someone Else

Undecided

18-34

28%

7%

1%

5%

5%

1%

14%

22%

1%

4%

11%

35-49

26%

6%

4%

7%

4%

3%

16%

19%

1%

3%

11%

50-64

28%

4%

3%

7%

6%

2%

16%

21%

1%

3%

9%

65+

21%

7%

3%

9%

9%

3%

17%

18%

1%

2%

10%

Male

22%

6%

2%

6%

7%

1%

19%

23%

1%

4%

9%

Female

31%

6%

4%

8%

5%

3%

12%

17%

1%

2%

11%


Rona Ambrose

Maxime Bernier

Michael Chong

Tony Clement

Jason Kenney

Kellie Leitch

Peter MacKay

Kevin O’Leary

Lisa Raitt

Someone Else

Undecided

BC

25%

3%

3%

7%

6%

1%

18%

22%

1%

2%

11%

AB

26%

4%

2%

4%

7%

1%

13%

19%

1%

3%

19%

Prairies

40%

3%

2%

7%

4%

3%

17%

18%

1%

3%

4%

ON

23%

6%

5%

10%

6%

3%

15%

22%

1%

2%

7%

QC

26%

14%

1%

4%

6%

2%

16%

18%

1%

4%

9%

ATL

25%

3%

2%

5%

6%

2%

25%

17%

2%

4%

8%

Nat.

26%

6%

3%

7%

6%

2%

16%

20%

1%

3%

10%

A10


Conservative Leadership without Ambrose as Candidate [Conservative Decided/Leaning Only]

A11

Max

ime

Bern

ier

Mic

hael

Cho

ng

Tony

Cle

men

t

Jaso

n Ke

nney

Kelli

e Le

itch

Pete

r Mac

Kay

Kevi

n O

’Lea

ry

Lisa

Rai

tt

Som

eone

Els

e

Und

ecid

ed

8% 5% 8% 7% 3% 23%

22%

4% 4% 16%


A12

Maxime Bernier

Michael Chong

Tony Clement

Jason Kenney

Kellie Leitch

Peter MacKay

Kevin O’Leary

Lisa Raitt

Someone Else

Undecided

18-34

11%

3%

7%

5%

1%

18%

21%

3%

5%

25%

35-49

7%

6%

8%

5%

3%

24%

22%

4%

4%

18%

50-64

5%

6%

7%

8%

3%

27%

24%

4%

4%

13%

65+

10%

5%

10%

10%

4%

22%

20%

5%

4%

9%

Male

9%

5%

7%

8%

3%

25%

22%

3%

4%

14%

Female

7%

5%

9%

6%

3%

20%

22%

5%

4%

18%

Maxime Bernier

Michael Chong

Tony Clement

Jason Kenney

Kellie Leitch

Peter MacKay

Kevin O’Leary

Lisa Raitt

Someone Else

Undecided

BC

4%

3%

8%

7%

3%

26%

24%

4%

4%

16%

AB

4%

3%

5%

10%

2%

21%

22%

2%

6%

26%

Prairies

3%

3%

7%

5%

4%

33%

20%

13%

4%

9%

ON

9%

10%

13%

6%

4%

19%

24%

4%

2%

10%

QC

18%

1%

4%

7%

2%

22%

18%

2%

5%

21%

ATL

4%

2%

5%

7%

2%

35%

20%

4%

6%

14%

Nat.

8%

5%

8%

7%

3%

23%

22%

4%

4%

16%


A13


Conservative Party led by Rona AmbroseNDP led by Tom Mulcair

Liberal Party led by Justin TrudeauBloc Québécois led by Rheal FortinGreen Party led by Elizabeth May

Undecided

[Following question was asked with and without Rona Ambrose as option to Conservative Party Supporters (Decided or Leaning) Only]

The Conservative Party will be holding a leadership race to choose a new leader. Of the following candidates, whom would you vote for if you could to be the next Conservative Leader?

Rona AmbroseMaxime BernierMichael ChongTony ClementJason KenneyKellie Leitch

Peter MacKayKevin O’Leary

Lisa RaittSomeone Else

Undecided

[The following questions were asked to Conservative Party Supporters (Decided or Leaning) Only]

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Rona Ambrose?And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Maxime Bernier?And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Michael Chong?And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Tony Clement?And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Jason Kenney?And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Kellie Leitch?

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Peter MacKay?And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Kevin O’Leary?

And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Lisa Raitt?

FavourableUnfavourable

Not SureNot Familiar with [Name]

SCRIPT

A14

WHITBY

Most Accurate Pollster of the Whitby by election.

SASKATCHEWAN

Most Active Pollster of Saskatchewan’s general election, top results within MoE.

MANITOBA

Most Active Pollster of Manitoba’s general election, top results within MoE.

CALGARY GREENWAY

Most Accurate Pollster of the Calgary Greenway by election.

Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.

Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.

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TWITTER @MainStResearch

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mainstreet - cpc leader april 2016

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