lowes creek maryland precinct traffic, transport and

Lowes Creek Maryland Precinct

Traffic, Transport and Access Assessment

September 2018

GHD | Lowes Creek Maryland Part Precinct Rezoning Proposal| i

Executive summary

GHD has been commissioned to undertake a Traffic Assessment for the Lowes Creek Maryland

(LCM) Precinct and wider Context Plan area.

The Greater Sydney Region Plan: A Metropolis of Three Cities indicates that Sydney’s

population is projected to add an additional 1.7 million people by 2036 and approximately

725,000 additional homes to accommodate the growing population. Providing this

accommodation and supporting infrastructure is a key challenge Sydney will face over the next

20 years and beyond.

The LCM Precinct is located in the South West Growth Area (SWGA) consisting of 10,188

hectares of semi-rural land in the Liverpool, Camden and Campbelltown Local Government

Areas.

For planning purposes, the SWGA has been separated into 14 precincts, half of which have

been rezoned or partly rezoned. It is anticipated that upon full development, the SWGA will

provide approximately 80,000 homes for 256,000 residents.

Preliminary estimates (provided by the DPE) indicate that the:

LCM Precinct could accommodate approximately 6,983 dwellings

The other Context Plan areas could accommodate 9,950 dwellings.

Additionally, a series of retail, commercial, recreational and educational land uses are also

proposed to cater to LCM Precinct’s future residents.

Roads and Maritime Services (RMS) is upgrading The Northern Road and Bringelly Road as

part of the Australian and NSW Governments’ Western Sydney Infrastructure Plan (WSIP). The

WSIP will deliver $3.6 billion in road infrastructure improvements over the next 10 years, which

includes $1.6 billion allocated to The Northern Road and $509 million for Bringelly Road.

The Northern Road upgrade consists of conversion from a two lanes to a four lane divided road,

with the provision of a median allowing for 6 lanes to be provided in the future. The upgrade

includes the provision of 4 metre shoulders, which can be converted into bus lanes.

In accordance with instructions from RMS (see Appendix A) a three-tiered modelling process

has been adopted for the LCM Precinct Traffic and Transport Study, as follows:

Tier 1 – Strategic modelling using the EMME model provided by RMS.

Tier 2 – Mesoscopic modelling using AIMSUN to take into account the consideration of

time dynamics of the traffic demand.

Tier 3 – SIDRA intersection modelling using the traffic volumes identified in the previous

modelling processes, accounting for the existing/proposed infrastructure on the adjoining

road network.

The horizon years included in each of the modelling tiers is displayed in the table below.

Scenario 2015 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Tier 1: Strategic Modelling (Emme)

Tier 2: Mesoscopic Modelling (Aimsun)

Tier 3: Intersection modelling (SIDRA)

The key conclusions and recommendations drawn from each modelling tier is as follows:

Strategic modelling:

GHD | Lowes Creek Maryland Rezoning 2125621 |

GHD | Lowes Creek Maryland Rezoning 2125621 | ii

– By 2036 volume to capacity ratios of greater than 100 percent are shown over multiple

sections along The Northern Road particularly in proximity to Bringelly Road

intersection during both the AM and PM peak periods.

– The Northern Road should be widened to three lanes in either direction between 2031

and 2036, to facilitate capacity that can accommodate the expected travel demand.

Mesoscopic modelling:

– Volume to capacity ratios exceed 75 percent in the northbound direction along nearly

all sections of The Northern Road during the AM peak hour. This result indicates that

the two lanes per direction along The Northern Road should be widened to three lanes

in each direction after 2031.

SIDRA modelling:

– The signalised intersections of interest (internal and external) are expected to

predominantly operate with a good Level of Service (LOS) in the 2021 and 2026

horizon years.

– All the internal signalised intersection are expected to operate with a good LOS up to

and including the 2031 horizon year.

– The delays at intersections on The Northern Road with poor LOS (in Scenario A) are

predominantly associated with vehicles on the east and west approaches, as priority is

allocated to north and south through movements.

– Accordingly, left turn continuous lanes from the approaches onto The Northern Road

(Scenario B) improve overall intersection performance considerably and may delay the

requirement to upgrade The Northern Road to three lanes in either direction.

– All the internal roundabouts are expected to operate with a good LOS up to 2031.

Key features of the proposed road hierarchy are as follows:

Four-lane sub-arterial roads (60 km/h) bounding the northern, southern and western

perimeter of the precinct area that connects directly to The Northern Road and the

adjacent precincts.

Two-lane collector roads (50 km) that provide access to the interior of the precinct and

key land uses (such as the school and town centre) and connect to the sub-arterial roads

and local roads (in accordance with the proposed road hierarchy).

Both the sub-arterial and collector road networks will be designed to accommodate bus

routes (3.5 m travel lanes required).

Key intersections along the collector and sub-arterial road networks are signalised with

roundabouts to provide additional access and U-turn opportunities.

Additional access along sub-arterial roads and collector roads should only be provided

through left in / left out priority controlled intersections.

Local streets (50 km/h) that provide access to individual properties.

The recommended road and intersection types within the LCM Precinct are displayed in the

figure below.

GHD | Lowes Creek Maryland Part Precinct Rezoning Proposal| i

Table of contents

1. Introduction..................................................................................................................................... 1

1.1 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 1

1.2 Purpose of this report........................................................................................................... 1

1.3 Key Challenges .................................................................................................................... 2

1.4 Scope and limitations ........................................................................................................... 2

1.5 Report Structure ................................................................................................................... 2

2. Existing and Proposed Infrastructure ............................................................................................. 3

2.1 Regional Context ................................................................................................................. 3

2.2 Site Context ......................................................................................................................... 6

2.3 Planning and Land Use Context .......................................................................................... 6

2.4 Current Transport Context ................................................................................................. 10

2.5 Future Road Network ......................................................................................................... 12

2.6 Future Public Transport ..................................................................................................... 13

2.7 Future Active Transport ..................................................................................................... 14

2.8 Surveys .............................................................................................................................. 14

2.9 Existing Operational Performance Analysis ...................................................................... 18

3. Proposed Development ................................................................................................................ 22

3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 22

3.2 Proposed Land Uses ......................................................................................................... 23

3.3 Trip Generation Assessment ............................................................................................. 28

3.4 Trip Distribution .................................................................................................................. 35

3.5 Proposed Context Plan Road Network and Access .......................................................... 35

4. Traffic and Transport Assessment ............................................................................................... 42

4.1 Modelling Methodology ...................................................................................................... 42

4.2 Strategic Modelling ............................................................................................................ 42

4.3 Mesoscopic Modelling........................................................................................................ 50

4.4 SIDRA Modelling ................................................................................................................ 72

4.5 Road Network Master Plan ................................................................................................ 84

4.6 Travel Demand Management ............................................................................................ 87

5. Summary and Conclusion ............................................................................................................ 88

5.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................................ 88

5.2 Future Transport ................................................................................................................ 88

5.3 Proposed Land Uses ......................................................................................................... 88

5.4 Road Network and Access ................................................................................................ 90

5.5 Modelling Methodology ...................................................................................................... 90

5.6 Road Network and Access ................................................................................................ 92

GHD | Lowes Creek Maryland Rezoning 2125621 | ii

Appendices

Appendix A – RMS Modelling Method

Appendix B – Proposed Intersection Upgrades on The Northern Road

Appendix C – Traffic Survey Outputs

Appendix D – EMME Model Outputs

Appendix E – AIMSUN Calibration and Validation Report

Appendix F – Strategic Modelling Details (EMME to AIMSUN)

Appendix G – AIMSUN Delay Calculations

Appendix H – SIDRA Network Layouts

Appendix I – SIDRA Network Outputs

Table index

Table 2-1 – Journey to Work Data ......................................................................................................... 11

Table 2-2 – Level of Service Criteria ...................................................................................................... 19

Table 2-3 – SIDRA Modelling Parameters ............................................................................................. 20

Table 2-4 - Current Intersection Performance ........................................................................................ 21

Table 3-1 – Proposed LCM Precinct Residential Yield .......................................................................... 25

Table 3-2 – Proposed LCM Retail/Commercial Land Uses ................................................................... 26

Table 3-3 – Updated LCM Retail/Commercial Land Uses ..................................................................... 27

Table 3-4 – LCM Precinct Trip Generation 2021 (Stage 1) ................................................................... 31





Table 3-9 – Other Context Plan Areas Trip Generation 2026 (Stage 2) ................................................ 32

Table 3-10 – Other Context Plan Areas Trip Generation 2031 (Stage 3) .............................................. 33

Table 3-11 - Other Context Plan Areas – 2036 (Stage 4) ...................................................................... 33

Table 3-12 - Other Context Plan Areas – 2036 (Stage 5) ...................................................................... 34

Table 3-13 - Trip Generation Summary ................................................................................................. 34

Table 4-1 – Transport Modelling: Horizon Years Included .................................................................... 42

Table 4-2 – Strategic Modelling Scenarios ............................................................................................ 43

Table 4-3 – Alignment of LCM Staging with STFM Model Years ........................................................... 43

Table 4-4 – Mesoscopic Modelled Periods ............................................................................................ 50

Table 4-5 – Mesoscopic Modelling Lane Types and Assumed Capacities ............................................ 52

GHD | Lowes Creek Maryland Part Precinct Rezoning Proposal| iii

Table 4-6 – Intersection Upgrades along The Northern Road ............................................................... 53

Table 4-7 – Summary of Mesoscopic Modelling Results ....................................................................... 63

Table 4-8 - 2021 LOS Summary ............................................................................................................ 75

Table 4-9 – 2026 LOS Summary............................................................................................................ 77

Table 4-10 - 2031 SIDRA Results Summary (two travel lanes in either direction on The

Northern Road) .................................................................................................................. 79

Table 4-11 - 2031 LOS Summary (three travel lanes in either direction on The Northern

Road) ................................................................................................................................. 81

Table 4-12 - 2031 SIDRA Roundabout Summary .................................................................................. 83

Figure index

Figure 2-1 – SWGA Location ................................................................................................................... 4

Figure 2-2 – SWGA Conext Plan ............................................................................................................. 5

Figure 2-3 – NSW Long Term Master Plan .............................................................................................. 8

Figure 2-4 - Western Sydney Road Infrastructure Upgrades ................................................................... 9

Figure 2-5 – The Northern Road (4 Lane) Cross Section (at intersections) .......................................... 12

Figure 2-6 – Proposed North South Rail Line and SWRL Extension ..................................................... 14

Figure 2-7 – Traffic Survey Locations .................................................................................................... 16

Figure 2-8 – Greendale Road Traffic Profile .......................................................................................... 17

Figure 2-9 – Bringelly Road Traffic Profile ............................................................................................. 17

Figure 2-10 – The Northern Road (north of Bringelly Road) Traffic Profile ........................................... 18

Figure 2-11 - The Northern Road (adjacent to the site) Traffic Profile ................................................... 18

Figure 2-12 – Current Signal Phasing Greendale Road, Bringelly Road and The Northern

Road................................................................................................................................... 20

Figure 3-1 – Context Plan and LCM Rezoning Area Boundaries .......................................................... 23

Figure 3-2 – LCM Precinct Indicative Layout Plan ................................................................................. 24

Figure 3-3 – LCM Preliminary Intersection Locations/Type ................................................................... 36

Figure 3-4 – LCM Indicative Road Network and Land Use Development Staging ................................ 38

Figure 3-5 – Road Reserve Requirements for Sub-Arterial Roads ........................................................ 39

Figure 3-6 – Road Reserve Requirements for Collector Roads ............................................................ 40

Figure 3-7 – Road Reserve Requirements for Local Roads .................................................................. 41

Figure 4-1 – LCM Strategic Modelling Results for 2021 – V/C Ratios ................................................... 45



Figure 4-4 – LCM Strategic Modelling Results for 2036– V/C Ratios .................................................... 48


GHD | Lowes Creek Maryland Rezoning 2125621 | iv

Figure 4-6 – LCM Mesoscopic Modelling Study Area and Long Term Road Network .......................... 51

Figure 4-7 – Access Principle 1: Full Access across the Median ......................................................... 56

Figure 4-8 – Access Principle 2: Partial Access via Left-In/Left-Outs ................................................... 57

Figure 4-9 – Access Principle 3: Combination of Principles 1 and 2 .................................................... 57

Figure 4-10 – Mesoscopic Modelling Intersection Treatments .............................................................. 58

Figure 4-11 – Future Travel Demand within the Study Area .................................................................. 59

Figure 4-12 – Intersection Optimisation Process ................................................................................... 61

Figure 4-13 – Optimised Traffic Progression along The Northern Road ............................................... 62

Figure 4-14 – Mesoscopic Modelling Results for 2021 (Stage 1) – Traffic Volumes and V/C

Ratios ................................................................................................................................. 64

Figure 4-15 – Mesoscopic Modelling Results for 2021 (Stage 1) – Average Delay .............................. 65

Figure 4-16 – Mesoscopic Modelling Results for 2026 (Stages 2 & 3) – Traffic Volumes and

V/C Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 66

Figure 4-17 – Mesoscopic Modelling Results for 2026 (Stages 2 & 3) – Average Delay ...................... 67

Figure 4-18 – Mesoscopic Modelling Results for 2031 (Stages 3 & 4) – Traffic Volumes and

V/C Ratios .......................................................................................................................... 68

Figure 4-19 – Mesoscopic Modelling Results for 2031 (Stages 3 & 4) – Average Delay ...................... 69

Figure 4-20 – Potential Sydney Outer Orbital ........................................................................................ 71

Figure 4-21 – Indicative Road geometry on The Northern Road ........................................................... 72

Figure 4-22 – Indicative Signal Phasing ................................................................................................. 73

Figure 4-23 – LCM 2021 SIDRA Network .............................................................................................. 75

Figure 4-24 – LCM 2026 SIDRA Network .............................................................................................. 76

Figure 4-25 – LCM 2031 Road Network (two travel lanes in either direction on The Northern

Road) ................................................................................................................................. 78

Figure 4-26 – LCM 2031 Road Network (three travel lanes in either direction on The

Northern Road) .................................................................................................................. 80

Figure 4-27 – LCM 2031 internal Roundabout Locations ...................................................................... 82

Figure 4-28 – Indicative Roundabout Geometry .................................................................................... 83

Figure 4-29 – Lowes Creek Maryland Proposed Road Hierarchy ......................................................... 85

Figure 4-30 – LCM Staged Implementation of the Road Network ......................................................... 86

GHD | Lowes Creek Maryland Part Precinct Rezoning Proposal| v

List of Abbreviations

AIS Association of Independent Schools (of NSW)

DCP Development Control Plan

DoE Department of Education

DoS Degree of Saturation

DPE Department of Planning and Environment

GFA Gross Floor Area

GLFA Gross Leasable Floor Area

JTW

LCM

Journey to Work

Lowes Creek Maryland

LGA Local Government Area

LILO Left in/Left out

LOS Level of Service

RMS Roads and Maritime Services

SWGA South West Growth Area

SWRL South West Rail Link

TfNSW Transport for New South Wales

V/C Volume-over-capacity ratio

WSIP Western Sydney Infrastructure Plan

GHD | Lowes Creek Maryland Rezoning 2125621 | 1

1. Introduction

1.1 Introduction

GHD has been commissioned by Macarthur Developments Pty Ltd on behalf of the Department

of Planning and Environment (DPE) to undertake a Traffic and Transport Assessment for the

Lowes Creek Maryland (LCM) Precinct.

Macarthur Developments entered into a Voluntary Planning Agreement (VPA – 1) with the

Minister for Planning and Environment on 25 September 2015. The VPA requires planning to be

undertaken for two areas:

1. Preparation of a Context Plan for the broader LCM and South Creek West land release

area.

2. Preparation of an Indicative Layout Plan (ILP) for Lowes Creek Precinct to deliver

housing and services infrastructure necessary to accelerate the Precinct.


LCM Precinct could accommodate approximately 6,983 dwellings.

The other Context Plan areas could accommodate approximately 9,950 dwellings.

Effective transport planning and management will be required within the Context Plan area to

ensure the provision of an extensive network of traffic and transport facilities that will provide

multi-modal travel options for future residents and visitors.

It is necessary to identify strategic traffic and transport improvements, with an aim to ensure the

transportation needs of the rezoned areas are managed in a sustainable and integrated way, as

the SWGA is developed.

1.2 Purpose of this report

This Traffic and Transport Assessment has been undertaken with the following key objectives to

support the proposed rezoning of the LCM Precinct and the overall Context Plan area:

To inform future planning controls to ensure a coordinated and efficient approach to land

use planning and transport infrastructure.

To provide an integrated approach to determining the optimal mix of land uses and

density concentrations as a means of minimising (where possible) trip generation and

transport-related demand.

To ascertain the cumulative and regional traffic and transport impacts associated with the

rezoning and general growth in the SWGA.

To maximise efficiency and safety of the existing and proposed transport systems in

proximity to the subject site.

Develop a preferred road and transport network to serve LCM Precinct that supports the

provision of a public transport network and is sensitive to the future needs of the

surrounding community.


1.3 Key Challenges

Some of the key challenges associated with the development of the lands subject to the

rezoning application are as follows:

Locate key access points to the rezoning land and minimise its impacts on the

surrounding higher order roads, particularly The Northern Road.

Ensure the safety and functionality of key access points to the Context Plan area.

Evaluate the traffic impacts of the LCM Precinct and overall Context Plan area in the

context of the proposed road/intersection upgrades on The Northern Road.

Evaluate the effects of the future M9 and M12 motorways that will provide access to the

employment precincts to the north of the subject site (including the Western Sydney

Airport).

1.4 Scope and limitations

The modelling methodology included in the assessment has been reviewed and approved by

Roads and Maritime Services (RMS) and includes the following steps:

Strategic modelling using the EMME model provided by RMS.

Mesoscopic modelling using AIMSUN to take into account the consideration of time

dynamics of the traffic demand.

SIDRA intersection modelling using the traffic volumes identified in the previous modelling

processes, accounting for the existing/proposed infrastructure on the adjoining road

network.

The letter detailing the modelling approach specified by RMS with respect to the Traffic and

Transport Assessment is included in Appendix A.

All source data employed in the preparation of the traffic and transport assessment has been

diligently collated and checked by GHD. However, given the level of detail of the assessment

and the reliance on assumptions, the accuracy of modelling predictions will be influenced by

unknowns or changes to what has been assumed to occur in the future.

Every effort has been made to ensure the veracity and accuracy of the analysis included in this

report.

1.5 Report Structure

This remainder of this report is structured as follows:

Section 2 (Existing and Proposed Infrastructure): presents a discussion of the land

use planning, transport planning and policy context within which the precinct planning

process was undertaken.

Section 3 (Proposed Development): outlines the scope of the development, including

the proposed access strategy, key planning considerations and the expected trip

generation characteristics.

Section 4 (Traffic and Transport Assessment): presents the results of the strategic

transport network and intersection assessment undertaken for each tier of modelling.

Additionally, it identifies the “preferred” road network hierarchy.

Section 5 (Summary and Conclusions): summarises the key findings of this study.


2. Existing and Proposed Infrastructure

This section outlines the location of the site, its environmental context, connections to the local

transport network, other development proposals that are under consideration in the area and

the proposed upgrades to the adjoining road network.

2.1 Regional Context

The subject site is located in Western Sydney within the SWGA, which is approximately 10,188

ha in size and includes parts of Liverpool, Camden and Campbelltown Local Government Areas

(LGA).

The SWGA is divided into 14 precincts that are progressively being released for planning and

rezoned, to accommodate the ongoing population growth in Western Sydney.

The growth area is proposed to provide 80,000 homes for 256,000 residents. The projected

yields for precincts within or in proximity to the Context Plan include:

Oran Park – 7,540 dwellings, a town centre and new schools.

Pondicherry – 5,000 dwellings, one town centre and several neighbourhood centres.

South Creek West – 2,000 dwellings and several neighbourhood centres and

employment areas.

Maryland – 9,000 dwellings and several neighbourhood centres and employment areas.

The SWGA Status Map is displayed in Figure 2-1.


Figure 2-1 – SWGA Location

Lowes Creek Marylands


The location of the SWGA in the wider context of Western Sydney is displayed in Figure 2-2.

Figure 2-2 – SWGA Conext Plan

.


2.2 Site Context

The Context Plan area is proposed to be developed primarily for residential land uses. It is

proposed to include a centrally located town centre with a concentration of retail and

commercial developments, lower order neighbourhood centres, schools and recreational

facilities.

The Context Plan area is approximatley 1,400 hectares and currently occupied by

predominately large landholdings.

The subject site predominantly operates as a rural farmland, but includes the following

properties:

Hi-Quality Group – A transport and waste management company, located at 761 The

Northern Road, Bringelly.

Birling Avian Laboratories – A laboratory and research centre.

Boral Bringelly Brickworks, located at Lot 2 Greendale Road, Bringelly.

Bringelly Village Shopping Centre, located at the corner of Greendale Road and The

Northern Road.

A small number of low-density residential dwellings.

The Camden Local Environmental Plan (2010) currently zones the context plan RU1 Primary

Production, RU4 Primary Production Small Lots, and B1 Neighbourhood Centre (Bringelly

Village Shopping Centre).

2.3 Planning and Land Use Context

Planning for the rezoning of the LCM Precinct is guided by a number of policy documents,

including:

The Camden Local Environmental Plan (2010).

State Environmental Planning Policy (Sydney Regional Growth Centres) 2006.

Camden Growth Centre Precincts DCP (2015).

In addition, the following documents provide the strategic context of the proposal and the

adjoining road network.

2.3.1 Greater Sydney Regional Plan - A Metropolis of Three Cities

The South West Growth Area is identified as being located within the Western Parkland City,

which is intended to grow from a population of 740,000 people in 2016 to 1.1 million by 2036.

Visions / strategies for the Western Parkland City include:

The Badgerys Creek Aerotropolis and Western Sydney Airport are economic catalysts for

the district.

A polycentric city capitalising on established centres of Liverpool, Greater Penrith and

Campbelltown – Macarthur, promoting a 30 min city.

Sustainability, liveability and placemaking are core considerations in driving productivity.

Improving transport connections across the Western Parkland City.

Prioritising public transport investments to improve north-south and east-west

connections to the metropolitan cluster.


2.3.2 Western City District Plan (2018)

The Western City District Plan (District Plan) is a 20-year plan to manage growth in Western

Sydney. Key directions in the District Plan include:

Providing housing supply, choice and affordability, with access to jobs, services and

public transport.

Creating and renewing great places and local centres, and respecting the District’s

heritage.

Establishing the land use and transport structure to deliver a liveable, productive and

sustainable Western Parkland City.

2.3.3 Future Transport 2056

Future Transport Strategy 2056, provides a 40 year vision for customer mobility in NSW and is

intended to guide transport investments to support a modern transport network across a

“metropolis” of three cities.

The vision for Greater Sydney is one where people can access jobs and services in their

nearest metropolitan city and strategic centre within 30 minutes by public transport,

Committed initiatives (0 – 10 years) in the Western Parkland City include:

The Western Sydney Infrastructure Plan.

The Western Sydney Growth Roads Program.

Initiatives for investigation (0 – 10 years) include:

Infrastructure to support rapid bus connections between WSA-Badgerys Creek

Aerotropolis and Greater Penrith, Liverpool, Blacktown and Campbelltown-Macarthur.

Leppington to WSA-Badgerys Creek Aerotropolis rail link.

Infinitives for investigation (10 – 20 years) include:

Outer Sydney Orbital (motorway and freight rail) from Great Western Highway and

Western Line to WSA-Badgerys Creek Aerotropolis.

Western Sydney Freight Line.

2.3.4 NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan

The NSW Long Term Transport Master Plan (Transport for NSW, 2012) identifies The Northern

Road as one of the corridors that will face “increased demand” in accordance with the ongoing

development of the western suburbs of Sydney. Additionally, in Section 5.8 “Providing essential

greenfield infrastructure for growth centres”, the plan identifies the upgrade of The Northern

Road as a “medium to longer term” priority.


Figure 2-3 – NSW Long Term Master Plan

2.3.5 South West Growth Area Context Plan

The South West Growth Area Context Plan provided a strategic framework on delivery on new

communities in the SWGA. The context plan was prepared in 2006 during the establishments of

the North West and South West Growth Areas.

The Context Plan is currently under review and will ultimately be superseded by the South West

Land Use and Infrastructure Implementation Plan (SWLUIIP).

The SWLUIIP will be a strategic document to enable coordination of infrastructure to unlock new

communities.

Western Sydney Infrastructure Plan

RMS is currently upgrading The Northern Road and Bringelly Road as part of the Australian and

NSW governments’ Western Sydney Infrastructure Plan (WSIP), which will deliver $3.6 billion in

road infrastructure improvements over the next 10 years.

As displayed below in Figure 2-4, upgrades include investment of $1.6 billion for The Northern

Road and $509 million for Bringelly Road. Current information indicates that the works

associated with the WSIP will be completed in 2019.

South West Growth Centre

Northern Road


Figure 2-4 - Western Sydney Road Infrastructure Upgrades

2.3.6 The Northern Road Corridor Strategy

The Northern Road Corridor Strategy (RMS, 2009) sets out the need and a vision for the

upgrade of The Northern Road as a principal transport corridor for the South West Growth Area.

The Northern Road upgrade strategy is being delivered in stages and will facilitate the Long

Term Transport Master Plan and WSIP objectives to improve connectivity to and from the South

West Growth Area.

Subject Site

Northern Road


2.4 Current Transport Context

2.4.1 Public Transport

The 856 bus route, Bringelly to Liverpool via Leppington Station and Prestons, operates on

Bringelly Road and The Northern Road north of the Context Plan area. The 856 buses run very

infrequently with 5-6 services/day/direction with the majority of activity occurring during periods

of peak road network activity.

There are no current public transport routes operating on The Northern Road in proximity to the

subject site.

Leppington Station is located approximately 7 km to the east of the subject site. Leppington

Station is located on the T2 Inner West and Leppington Line and T5 Cumberland Line, which

provide direct connectivity to a number of Sydney’s key commercial, and population centres

including Liverpool, Parramatta, Strathfield, and the Sydney CBD.

The 856 bus route provides a feeder service to Leppington Station. In addition, a large park and

ride facility is provided at the station. It is expected park and ride service may provide some

utility to the future residents of the Context Plan area.

School bus services operate in the area, serving both Bringelly Public School and Rossmore

Primary School.

2.4.2 Road Network

The location of the LCM Precinct in the context of the adjoining road network is displayed in

Figure 2-7.

A brief description of the major road network in proximity to the subject site is provided below.

The Northern Road

The Northern Road is an arterial road (which forms part of the A9 Western Sydney Bypass),

runs adjacent to the east of the subject site and is managed by RMS. The Northern Road

connects Narellan in the south-west through to the Great Western Highway.

The Northern Road was constructed as a single carriageway with a travel lane in either

direction. However, as part of the WSIP, The Northern Road is currently being upgraded by

RMS from two lanes to a four-lane divided road (and bus jump off lanes at intersections), with

the provision of a wide median allowing for 6 traffic lanes be provided in the future.

Prior to construction, in the vicinity of the subject site, The Northern Road operated with an 80

km/h speed limit. Speeds are currently reduced to account for construction activity. Upon

completion of roadworks, RMS have indicated it will operate with an 80 km/h speed limit.

Bringelly Road

Bringelly Road is an arterial road which is managed by RMS and connects The Northern Road

at Bringelly, through to Camden Valley Way at Horningsea Park.

Bringelly Road is approximately 10 km in length and is an undivided carriageway with one lane

in each direction, unsealed shoulders and a sign posted speed limit of 80 km/h. However,

residential precincts are sign posted at 60 km/h speed limit. Rossmore Public School is located

on Bringelly Road west of North Avenue. In the vicinity of the school, there is a school zone with

a posted speed limit of 40 km/h.

The Australian and NSW governments have provided $509 million to upgrade Bringelly Road

between Camden Valley Way and The Northern Road to support the development of growth

areas, employment and the proposed Western Sydney Airport at Badgerys Creek.


This 10 km project will include the upgrade of Bringelly Road from two lanes to a six lane

divided road between the eastern side of Upper Canal Bridge and the western side of the

Eastwood Road Intersection, through the future Leppington Town Centre. The rest of Bringelly

Road will also be upgraded from two lanes to a four lane divided road with a central median.

Greendale Road

Greendale Road is a collector road under the management of Liverpool City Council, which

connects from Park Road at Wallacia, through Greendale rural area to Bringelly Road and The

Northern Road signalised intersection at Bringelly. Greendale Road is around 16 km in length

and is an undivided carriageway with one lane in each direction with unsealed shoulders.

Greendale Road typically has a sign posted speed limit of 80 km/h with residential precincts

sign posted at 60 km/h speed limit.

2.4.3 Active Transport

Concrete footpaths are located on the north side of Greendale Road in proximity to the primary

school and on the western side of The Northern Road in proximity to the school and shopping

centre. However, concrete footpaths are typically not provided on the roads in proximity to the

Context Plan area.

The Camden Council Bicycle Map (1996) identifies The Northern Road as a “regional route’

(proposed). However, given the road’s narrow shoulders and high design speeds, it has not

been suitable for inclusion as part of a bicycle network. The widening of The Northern Road (as

described in Section 2.5) provides the opportunity to develop improved active transport facilities.

Walking and cycling opportunities via dedicated infrastructure in proximity to the subject site are

currently limited.

2.4.4 Journey to Work Trips

Data has been obtained from the Bureau of Transport Statistics for the Journey to Work (JTW)

for the residence of the Camden LGA and the Transport Zones located on either side of The

Northern Road between Oran Park and Bringelly. The JTW data is provided in Table 2-1.

Table 2-1 – Journey to Work Data

Mode Zones within Context Plan Camden LGA

Vehicle driver 86% 83%

Vehicle passenger 4% 5%

Train 4% 7%

Bus - 1%

Walk only 2% 1%

Other modes 4% 3%

Total 100% 100%

The data in Table 2-1 indicates very similar patterns between the Transport Zones located in

proximity to the subject site and the Camden LGA, with the use of private vehicle being the

predominant mode of travel (88 percent to 90 percent of work trips), and relatively small portions

of people utilising active and public transport.


2.5 Future Road Network

2.5.1 The Northern Road

The MR154 The Northern Road Upgrade between Old Northern Road and Mersey Road (SKM

2012) provides an assessment of the existing and horizon year operation of intersections along

the Old Northern Road. The scope of works included the development of a “SATURN” model for

2016 (based on the existing geometry), 2026 (4-lane configuration) and 2036 (6 lane

configuration).

The key features of The Northern Road upgrade are:

Two lanes in each direction with a four metre wide shoulder and wide central median

allowing for widening to six lanes when required in the future.

Additional short right and left turning lanes.

A grade separated interchange at Bringelly Road to the east of Bringelly Village shops

and the existing intersection with Bringelly Road/Greendale Road.

A three metre wide shared pedestrian and cyclist path on the eastern side of The

Northern Road and designated turning lanes at traffic lights.

Bicycle and pedestrian crossing provisions at traffic lights.

Bus priority lanes at traffic lights and indented bus bays.

Nine intersection upgrades with new traffic lights (seven of which are located within the

Context Plan area).

The four lane cross section (at intersections) of The Northern Road is displayed in Figure 2-5.

Figure 2-5 – The Northern Road (4 Lane) Cross Section (at intersections)

The intersection layouts presented in the detailed drawings and SKM report have helped inform

the road geometry included in the traffic modelling undertaken in this report.

Additionally RMS have prepared detailed design drawings of the proposed intersection

upgrades on The Northern Road and these are included in Appendix B.

2.5.2 Bringelly Road

The Australian and NSW Governments have provided $509 million to upgrade Bringelly Road

between Camden Valley Way and The Northern Road to support the development of growth

areas, employment and the proposed Western Sydney Airport at Badgerys Creek.

As part of the WSIP works, RMS are planning to grade-separate the interchange of The

Northern Road and Bringelly Road. The Northern Road/Bringelly Road Grade Separated

Interchange Traffic and Transport Assessment indicates that while the intersection is currently


operating with an acceptable level of service, with no improvements, it is expected to operate

unacceptably by 2019. Additional modelling indicated that the proposed grade separated layout

would be required to facilitate an acceptable level of service.

The grade separation proposal includes the following:

Relocating the interchange approximately 300 m to the east of its current location.

Providing a new signalised junction on Bringelly Road.

Providing dual right lanes for all movements to and from The Northern Road.

RMS’s detailed design drawings display the intended layout of the proposed grade separated

interchange as indicated in Appendix B.

2.5.3 Other Roads

The Australian and NSW Government are proposing to build the M12 Motorway, which would

provide direct access to the proposed Western Sydney Airport. The proposal is for an east-west

motorway between the M7 Motorway and The Northern Road to the north of the subject site.

The M9 Motorway (Outer Sydney Orbital) is proposed to consist of an orbital road running from

the Central Coast to Illawarra via a corridor to the west of the M7 and the LCM Precinct. In 2014

the NSW Government announced provided $4.6 million for planning the M9 Motorway.

There is no available information indicating when these roads will be constructed and become

operational. The preliminary M12 and M9 are displayed in Figure 4-20.

2.6 Future Public Transport

As described previously, the proposed The Northern Road upgrade includes the provision of

bus lanes in either direction. Currently, no bus services operate on The Northern Road in

proximity to the LCM Precinct. However, as the South West Growth Area is developed,

increased population densities may encourage the introduction of new bus routes in the region.

Sydney’s Bus Future (2013) specifies that rapid service routes will be provided for western

growth areas. Accordingly, The Northern Road could potentially be included on any future rapid

bus routes.

The South West Rail Link (SWRL, which commenced operation in 2015) is a NSW Government

initiative to provide additional connectivity to facilitate the mobility of resident / visitors in the

developing suburbs of Southwest Sydney and includes an 11.4 km rail line between Glenfield

and Leppington.

In order to facilitate the possible future extension of the SWRL (as part of the North South Rail

Line), the NSW Government is protecting a public transport corridor in Western Sydney. The

extension corridor is proposed to connect Leppington Station to Bringelly and meet up with the

proposed North South Rail Line.

A number of new stations are proposed for this extension. The preliminary routes and station

locations of the North South Rail Link are displayed in Figure 2-6.


Figure 2-6 – Proposed North South Rail Line and SWRL Extension

TfNSW sought feedback on the transport corridors, which closed on 1 June 2018. Corridor

identification is currently in the post-exhibition stage.

For the purposes of analysis and as specified by RMS, it has been assumed that North South

Rail Link in proximity to the site will not become operational in the horizon years of analysis,

undertaken in this assessment.

2.7 Future Active Transport

The Northern Road upgrade includes the:

Provision of signalised junctions with pedestrian phasing between Peter Brock Drive and

Mersey Road, including intersections adjacent to the LCM Precinct at Lowes Creek Road,

Maryland Link Road Number 2 and Maryland Link Road Number 3.

The introduction of a 3 m wide shared path along the length on The Northern Road.

The introduction of on-road bicycle paths on Maryland Link Road 3, Maryland Link Road

2, Maryland Link Road 1 and Lowes Creek Road in proximity to the subject site.

Upon completion, The Northern Road upgrades will facilitate a significantly improved active

transport environment for residents and visitors of the proposed development and its surrounds.

The LCM Precinct internal road network will be developed (in accordance with the Camden

Growth Centre Development Control Plan) to expedite the mobility of pedestrians and bicycle

riders (see Section 3.5.1).

2.8 Surveys

In order to identify the current vehicle activity in proximity to the subject site (and to calibrate the

base AIMSUN model), turning movement surveys were undertaken on Wednesday 31st August

2016 at the following intersections:

Greendale Road/Tyson Road

Subject Site


Greendale Road/Hutchinson Road

Greendale Road/Bringelly Road/The Northern Road

The Northern Road/Loftus Road

The Northern Road/Robinson Road

The Northern Road/Belmore Road

The Northern Road/Carrington Road.

The Greendale Road/Bringelly Road/The Northern Road intersection is signalised, whilst the

other intersections are currently priority controlled.

The surveys were undertaken in 15 minute increments on a weekday between the following

times in order to identify the peak periods of road network activity:

6:00 am – 10:00 am

3:00 pm – 7:00 pm.

Analysis of the survey data indicated that the peak hours of road network activity occurred

between:

7:15 am – 8:15 am

4:30 pm – 5:30 pm.

Additionally, week-long tube counts (automatic traffic counts) were undertaken at the following

locations:

Greendale Road west of The Northern Road

The Northern Road north of Greendale Road/Bringelly Road

Bringelly Road east of The Northern Road

The Northern Road adjacent to the development subject site.

The locations of the surveys are displayed below in Figure 2-7 and the survey outputs are

included in Appendix C.


Figure 2-7 – Traffic Survey Locations

A review of the survey data indicates that:

The traffic volumes identified on each weekday of the tube counts are consistent with

each other, with no significant variations.

The volumes identified at the intersections of interest were consistent with the average

weekday travel volumes identified in the tube counts.

The outputs of the tube counts displaying average weekday traffic volumes for Greendale Road,

Bringelly Road and The Northern Road are presented below in Figure 2-8 to Figure 2-11.

13

4

2

Intersection Traffic Count Location

Automatic Traffic Count Location

N

1 23

45

6

7

Greendale Road

Bringelly Road

The Northern Road


Figure 2-8 – Greendale Road Traffic Profile

Figure 2-9 – Bringelly Road Traffic Profile

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Figure 2-10 – The Northern Road (north of Bringelly Road) Traffic Profile

Figure 2-11 - The Northern Road (adjacent to the site) Traffic Profile

The above figures indicate distinct morning and afternoon peaks. This is consistent with

individuals driving to work in the morning and returning to their homes in the afternoon /

evenings.

2.9 Existing Operational Performance Analysis

2.9.1 Midblock Capacity

A midblock link capacity analysis of the existing road network was undertaken using the

Austroads Guide to Traffic Management Part 3 – Traffic Studies and Analysis, Section 5.2.1 and

explanatory notes.

Volume to capacity ratio (V/C) for the peak direction traffic volumes at each of the four tube

count locations was calculated by adopting a capacity of 900 vehicles per lane per hour (based

on a single lane in either direction).

As can be seen from the above figures The Northern Road currently experiences volumes in

excess of its capacity during periods of peak road network activity.

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2.9.2 Intersection Performance.

The SIDRA 7 intersection modelling software was used to assess the proposed peak hour

operating performance of the intersections of interest. The criteria for evaluating the operational

performance of intersections is provided by the Guide to Traffic Generating Developments

(RMS, 2002) and reproduced in Table 2-2.

The criteria are based on a qualitative measure (i.e. Level of Service (LOS)), which is applied to

each band of average vehicle delay. It is noted that LOS ‘D’ is generally an acceptable

operating condition on urban roads.

Table 2-2 – Level of Service Criteria

LOS Average Delay (secs/vehicle)

Traffic Signals/Roundabouts Priority Controlled

A < 14 Good operation Good operation

B 15 to 28 Good with acceptable delays

and spare capacity

Acceptable delays and

spare capacity

C 29 to 42 Satisfactory Satisfactory, but accident

study required

D 43 to 56 Operating near capacity Near capacity and accident

study required

E 57 to 70

At capacity; at signals, incidents

will cause excessive delays

Roundabouts require other

control modes

At capacity, requires other

control mode

F > 70 Over Capacity

Unstable operation

Over Capacity

Unstable operation

Source: Guide to Traffic Generating Developments (RMS 2002)

Notes:

1. The average delay for priority-controlled intersections is selected from the movement on the approach with the highest average delay.

2. The level of service (LOS) for priority-controlled intersections is based on the highest average delay per vehicle for the most critical movement.

3. The degree of saturation (DoS) is defined as the ratio of the arrival flow (demand) to the capacity of each approach.


The parameters utilised in the SIDRA analysis are displayed in Table 2-3.

Table 2-3 – SIDRA Modelling Parameters

Model Parameters Parameter Settings

SIDRA version 7

Site Process Network module

Pedestrian Unit Time for Volumes 60 minutes

Peak Flow Period 30 minutes

Volume (per 60 minutes) 50 pedestrians

Peak Flow Factor 95%

Traffic Volumes Unit Time for Volumes 60 minutes

Peak Flow Period 30 minutes

Volume Data Method Separate

Peak Flow Factor 95%

Phasing & Timing Signal Analysis Method Fixed-Time/Pre-timed

Yellow Time 4 seconds

Red Time 2 seconds

If signal optimisation is needed

Optimum Cycle Time

Model Settings Level of Service Method Delay (RMS NSW)

Level of Service Target LOS D

Performance Measure Degree of Saturation

Percentile Queue 95%

The phasing data for the Greendale Road, Bringelly Road and The Northern Road intersection

has been provided by RMS and is presented in Figure 2-12.

Figure 2-12 – Current Signal Phasing Greendale Road, Bringelly Road and The

Northern Road

As indicated above, right turning vehicles on The Northern Road are required to filter through

straight movements from the opposite direction.

The results of the current morning and evening performance at the intersections of interest, are

presented in Table 2-4.

Legend:


Table 2-4 - Current Intersection Performance

Intersection Morning peak Evening peak

AVG

delay

(sec)

LOS DoS 95th %

Queue

(m)

AVG

delay

(sec)

LOS DoS 95th %

Queue

(m)

Greendale Road/Tyson

Road 0.3 A 0.06 0.1 0.5 A 0.65 0.1

Greendale

Road/Hutchinson Road 1.3 A 0.06 0.7 1.6 A 0.06 0.8

Greendale

Road/Bringelly

Road/The Northern

Road

27.6 C 0.89 371 44.8 D 1.07 387

The Northern

Road/Loftus Road 0.3 A 0.55 1.9 0.2 A 0.54 0.7

The Northern

Road/Robinson Road 0.2 A 0.56 0.2 0.4 A 0.53 1.7

The Northern

Road/Belmore Road 0.2 A 0.56 0.9 0.1 A 0.54 0.2

The Northern

Road/Carrington Road 1.2 A 0.65 2.8 1.9 A 0.53 13.5

The data in Table 2-4 indicates that the intersections of interest are currently operating with an

overall acceptable LOS.

However, with respect to the Greendale Road, Bringelly Road and The Northern Road

intersection the following is noted:

In the morning peak right turning vehicles on Bringelly Road and Greendale Road

operate with delays consistent with a LOS E and relatively long queues form on the north

leg of The Northern Road.

In the evening peak right turns from Bringelly Road operate with delays consistent with a

LOS F, right turns on The Northern Road (south) and Greendale Road operate with

delays consistent with a LOS E and relatively long queues form on the north leg of The

Northern Road.

These results indicate that the signalised intersection is approaching capacity and will require

mitigation measure in the future. This analysis is consistent with RMS proposal to grade-

separate the intersection of Greendale Road, Bringelly Road and The Northern Road.

The results in Table 2-4 are consistent with the 2015 analysis detailed in The Northern

Road/Bringelly Road Grade Separated Interchange Traffic and Transport Assessment, which

indicated that the intersection is currently operating with an average delay of 33 seconds in

morning peak periods and 41 seconds in evening peak periods.


3. Proposed Development

3.1 Introduction

Macarthur Developments has entered into a Voluntary Planning Agreement (VPA – 1) with the

Minister for Planning and Environment to undertake the following:

1. Preparation of a context plan for the broader LCM and South Creek West land release

area.

2. Preparation of an Indicative Layout Plan for Lowes Creek Maryland Precinct to deliver

housing and service infrastructure necessary to accelerate the Precinct.

As described previously the subject site is located within the SWGA and has been identified as

an area that can accommodate significant residential growth.

The Context Plan area includes pockets of lands between the LCM Precinct and Oran Park (to

the south of the subject site) and between the LCM Precinct and Greendale Road to the north of

the subject site). These areas (which are not owned by the Macarthur Developments) may

become isolated if not accounted in terms of Context Planning. Accordingly, the analysis

undertaken in this report has accounted for the potential yields and traffic impacts associated

with these sites.

The site boundaries for the Context Plan area, is presented below in Figure 3-1.


Figure 3-1 – Context Plan and LCM Rezoning Area Boundaries

Source: Lowes Creek Maryland Context Plan Principles

3.2 Proposed Land Uses

The land uses associated with the LCM Precinct and Context Plan areas are described in

greater detail in this section.

LCM Precinct

Northern Area

Southern Area


The land uses and staging data described in this section have been based upon the available

information at the strategic planning stage of the precinct development. They may be subject to

minor changes at a later time as a result of site specific constraints identified in other technical

studies undertaken in subsequent planning stages for the proposed LCM Precinct.

The ILP for the LCM Precinct (issued on the 13th August 2018), is displayed in Figure 3-2.

Figure 3-2 – LCM Precinct Indicative Layout Plan


3.2.1 Residential Land Uses

It is proposed to provide a variety of different dwelling types within the LCM Precinct, as follows:

High density residential dwelling of up to five stories (high density) with up to 60 dwellings

per hectare near mixed use and highway services.

Medium density residential dwelling with up to 35 dwellings per hectare.

Low density residential dwelling with an average density 20 dwellings per hectare.

It is proposed to construct the apartments in Stage 3 of the development (see Table 3-1 below).

The residential land use schedule for the LCM Precinct, by stage is displayed below in Table

3-1.

Table 3-1 – Proposed LCM Precinct Residential Yield

Stage Timing Low Density Medium Density

High Density Total

Stage 1 2017 to

2021 500 240 0 740

Stage 2 2022 to

2026 1,080 300 0 1380

Stage 3 2027 to

2031 1,000 340 0 1340

Stage 4 2032 to

2036 1,000 340 400 1740

Stage 5 2037 to

2041 1,000 340 520 1860

Total 4,580 1,560 920 7,0601

The information contained in Table 3-1 indicates that by 2041, 7,060 dwelling will be

constructed on the LCM Precinct subject site.

Utilising a rate of 16 dwellings per hectare (as specified by the DPE) the following yields are

expected in the other Context Plan areas:

Southern area – 4,200 dwellings

Northern area – 5,750 dwellings.

When full development is complete, the overall Context Plan area is expected to provide 17,510

dwellings.

There is currently no development program/schedule for the development of the northern and

southern areas (which are displayed in Figure 3-1) however, it is expected that the

development of the southern area will commence prior to the northern area.

For the purposes of analysis (based on discussions with DPE), it has been assumed that:

Construction of the southern area will commence in Stage 2 (from 2022).

Construction of the northern area will commence in Stage 3 (from 2027).

1 The modelling was undertaken assuming 7,060 dwellings. As a result of subsequent studies relating to drainage basons and

riparian corrdidors the net developable area of LCM Precinct is cuurently 6,983 dwellings.


For each area, 1,250 lots will be developed in each stage of development.

It is noted that the delivery timeframe for dwellings will be dependent on development rollout,

which may differ from the timeframes detailed above. However, for the purposes of analysis,

these assumptions have been discussed and agreed with the DPE.

3.2.2 Retail and Commercial Uses

The Draft Lowes Creek Maryland Precinct Economic (Retail and Employment) Analysis 2016

provides a preliminary estimate of retail/commercial land uses that are proposed to be

developed within the Context Plan area.

A summary of the each of the retail/commercial uses for each location identified in the above

figure, is presented below in Table 3-2.

Table 3-2 – Proposed LCM Retail/Commercial Land Uses

Area

Discount

Department Store

(GFA m2)

Supermarket

(GFA m2)

Speciality

Retail

(GFA m2)

Commercial

(GFA m2)

Town Centre 7,500 8,000 9,500 5,000

Mixed Use

Precinct - - 3,000 1,000

Convenience

Centre - 2,000 1,000 1,000

Maryland South

Village - 4,000 1,500 1,000

Bringelly Village - 4,000 2,000 1,500

Total 7,500 18,000 17,000 9,500

Within the LCM Precinct, the following retail/commercial facilities are proposed:

A “local centre” with a concentration of retail and commercial facilities. The local centre is

expected to be anchored by a supermarket and include a number of speciality stores and

discount department stores. Commercial facilities, such as banks, hairdressers, etc., will

also be provided. Upon completion it is expected that the local centre will operate as a

sub-regional centre, predominantly serving the residents of the Context Plan area.

A “mixed use precinct” adjacent to the local centre - primarily expected to serve residents

of the high density developments.

A small “convenience centre” located at the north east corner of the subject site is

proposed to include a supermarket and speciality stores will operate as a “neighbourhood

centre” to service areas that do not have good access to the local centre.

Within the northern and southern areas, the following retail/commercial facilities are proposed.

The “Bringelly Village”, is proposed to be connected to the existing retail facilities

currently located at the corner of Greendale Road and The Northern Road and include a

small supermarket and speciality retail.

Maryland South Village, is proposed to be a supermarket based neighbourhood centre.


A highway service/employment area within the LCM Precinct with left in/left out

access/egress provided from The Northern Road. This area is intended to provide local

opportunities for a range of service businesses and semi-industrial land uses such as

vehicle repair, warehousing, showrooms and big-box retail. Retail and Employment Study

indicates that the highway services/employment area will have a GFA of approximately

11,000 sqm.

Based upon information included in an Indicative Layout Plan (ILP V07) issued by the DPE in

December 2017, the size of the local centre has been reduced to 20,000 sqm and the

Convenience Centre to the Mixed Use Precinct to 2,000 sqm. The updated retail / commercial

yields are presented in Table 3-3.

Table 3-3 – Updated LCM Retail/Commercial Land Uses2

Area

Discount

Department

Store (GFA m2)

Supermarket

(GFA m2)

Speciality

Retail

(GFA m2)

Commercial

(GFA m2)

Town Centre 5,000 5,333 6,333 3,333

Mixed Use Precinct - - 1,500 500

Convenience Centre - 2,000 1,000 1,000

Maryland South

Village - 4,000 1,500 1,000

Bringelly Village - 4,000 2,000 1,500

Total 5,000 15,333 12,333 7,333

To enable residents of the Context Plan area to access the employment area without exiting the

development onto The Northern Road, it has been assumed that there will be some internal

connectivity between the Context Plan area and the bulky goods/employment area. RMS have

indicated that they will only support ingress from The Northern Road into the southern bulky

goods site, with egress provided via the internal road network.

The following has been assumed with respect to the timing of the development of the retail

facilities:

Local Centre:

– In Stage 1 (2018 to 2021), 70 percent of the supermarket and a third of the speciality

retail/commercial will be developed

– In Stage 2 (2022 to 2026), the remaining 30 percent of the supermarket, two-thirds of

the speciality retail/commercial and the discount department store will be developed.

Mixed use development will be developed in Stage 3 (2027 to 2031).

Convenience centre will be developed in Stage 4 (2032 to 2036).

Maryland South Village will be developed in Stage 3 (2027 to 2031).

Bringelly Village will be developed in Stage 4 (2032 to 2036).

Highway services/employment area 50 percent will be developed in Stage 3 (2027 to

2031) and 50 percent in Stage 4 (2032 to 2036).

2 As a result of ongoing precinct planning the expected retail and commercial comonents of the LCM Preccinct have been

subject to minor changes with the mixed use centre increased to 4,000 m2 and the highway services reduced to 9,000 m2.


3.2.3 Recreational and Educational Uses

Recreational facilities including parks, sports ovals and playing fields will be provided to serve

the residents of the LCM Precinct. The sports/ovals and playing fields are proposed to be

concentrated to the north of the local centre, while parks will be distributed throughout the

precinct to provide convenient access for residents.

The proposed development will include the following educational facilities:

One primary school and one high school within the LCM Precinct subject site.

An additional two primary schools and one high school within the remaining Context Plan

area.

Demand for educational facilities will increase as the Context Plan area is developed as the

residential population grows. Accordingly, the following, has been assumed with respect to the

timing of the development of the educational facilities:

A primary school and high school will be constructed within the LCM Precinct in Stage 1

(2017 to 2021).

Within the southern area, a primary school will be constructed in Stage 3 (2027 to 2031)

and a high school in Stage 4 (2032 to 2036).

Within the northern area, a primary school will be constructed in Stage 3 (2027 to 2031).

Information provided by the Department of Education (DoE) indicates that for both primary and

high schools, student populations are typically in the order of 0.2 students per dwelling.

Accordingly, upon full development, the Context Plan is expected to have a population of 3,500

primary school students and 3,500 high school students.3

For the purposes of analysis, it has been assumed that these student populations will be

distributed approximately evenly between the proposed schools, therefore:

Each high school is expected to have a population of approximately 1,750 students

(based upon two high schools within the Context Plan area).

Each primary school is expected to have a population of approximately 1,170 students

(based upon three primary schools within the Context Plan area).

3.3 Trip Generation Assessment

3.3.1 Trip Generation Rates

The trip generation assessment for the Context Plan and the LCM Precinct has been

undertaken in accordance with the:

The Guide to Traffic Generating Developments Updated traffic surveys – Technical

Direction TDT2013/04a.

The RMS Guide to Traffic Generating Developments.

The ITE Trip Generation Manual (5th addition).

The Technical Note provides the following trip rates that are applicable to the proposed

development:

Low density dwellings – 0.95 trips per dwelling in AM peak periods and 0.99 trips per

dwelling in PM peak periods.

3 This was calculated on the premise that upon full development the Context Plan area will

accommodate approximately 17,000 dwelling.


High density dwellings (as applicable to the 6 storey apartment blocks) – 0.19 trips per

dwelling in the AM peak hour and 0.15 trips per dwelling in the PM peak period.

The Guide to Traffic Generating provides the following rates for shopping centres:

Discount department stores – 51 trips per 1,000 sqm GLFA.

Supermarkets – 155 trips per 1,000 sqm GLFA.

Speciality stores – 46 trips per 1,000 sqm GLFA.

Offices – 22 trips per 1,000 sqm GLFA.

These rates are applicable to Thursday evening trade and are consistent with a “worst case”

scenario.

The trip generation characteristics of the highway service/employment area on the northern

periphery of the LCM Precinct subject site has been assessed in accordance with the trip rates

for “Business Parks”.

Business parks are identified as providing a range of developments including industrial,

manufacturing, warehousing, commercial, retail and recreational land uses, which is consistent

with the expected land uses in this area.

The trip generation rate applicable to business parks is 1.1 vehicle trips per 100 sqm GLFA.

RMS do not provide trip rates for educational facilities. Accordingly, the trip generation

characteristics of the proposed primary schools and high schools have been identified in

accordance with the rates detailed in the ITE Trip Generation Manual (5th addition), as follows:

Primary school – 0.3 trips/student in morning peak periods.

High school - 0.41 trips/student in morning peak periods and 0.08 trips/student evening

peak period.

3.3.2 Mode Split

As displayed in the JTW data (Table 2-1) public transport utilisation in the proximity to the

subject site is low (in the order of 4 percent). The introduction of a rapid bus route on The

Northern Road may facilitate an increased public transport mode share.

Accordingly, for the purposes of analysis, it is assumed that 5 percent of the peak hour trips

generated by the residential components of the proposed Context Plan will utilise public

transport.

3.3.3 Trip Generation Characteristics

Residences

For the purposes of analysis, it has been assumed that for residential land uses, trips will be 80

percent outbound and 20 percent inbound in morning peak periods and 80 percent inbound and

20 percent outbound in evening peak periods.

Retail

Retail developments (shopping centres) typically generate negligible trips during morning peak

hour periods. For the retail facilities it has been assumed that during peak evening periods of

road network activity, trips will be 50 percent inbound and 50 percent outbound. It has further

been assumed that gross leasable retail areas will be 75 percent of gross floor areas.

For mixed use developments a portion of trips are typically internal, namely trips that both begin

and end within the development. This could consist of a resident walking or driving to an onsite

retail/commercial facility. As a result, a mixed-use development that generates a given number


of total trips creates less demand on the external road system than single-use developments

generating the same number of trips.

The proposed developments retail/commercial components are intended to operate as a sub-

regional centre and neighbourhood centres and are expected to predominantly serve residents

of the Context Plan area. They are expected to generate little (if any) external trips.

Accordingly, for the purposes of analysis, it has been assumed that all the trips they generate

will be internal to the development.

In accordance with the proximity of the retail and residential facilities and the proposed provision

of an active transport network, it has also been assumed that 10 percent of the retail trips will

utilise walking/cycling as the mode of travel.

During periods of peak road network activity, a significant portion of the trips generated by the

retail facilities will be passer-by trips (also referred to as drop-in trips). Passer-by trips/drop in

are applicable to retail developments and consist of traffic on the adjoining road network that

enters a site as an intermediate stop to another destination.

The volume of passer-by trips is typically dependent on the nature of retail facilities. Service

stations and fast food restaurants typically experience extremely high volumes of passer-by trips

(approximately 50 percent).

The Queensland Department of Main Roads Guidelines for Assessments of Road Impacts of

Development specifies the following rates for passer-by trips for “shopping centres”:

Shopping centres of less than 3,000 sqm, - 19 percent passer-by trips.

Shopping centres of 3,000 sqm – 20,000 sqm – 28 percent passer-by trips.

The retail components of the Context Plan area will typically be between 3,000 sqm – 20,000

sqm, accordingly a passer-by rate of 28 percent has been utilised in the analysis.

The highway services/employment area is proposed to be left in from Northern Road with

vehicle exiting via the internal road network.

In accordance with some of the proposed land uses such as warehousing, vehicle repair and

storage units and its location on The Northern Road, it is expected that a portion of trips it

generates will be external to the Context Plan. Further, as only northbound vehicles on The

Northern Road will have direct access to the employment area, it is expected that there will be a

reduction in passer-by trips, compared to other proposed retail facilities.

Accordingly, the following assumptions have been made with respect to the highway

services/employment area:

14 percent of trips will be passer-by trips.

Of the remaining trips, 50 percent will be internal to the Context Plan and 50 percent will

be external.

Schools

The ITE Trip Generation Manual suggests that:

Primary school trips are 60 percent inbound and 40 percent outbound in morning peak

periods.

High schools are 68 percent inbound and 32 percent outbound in morning peak periods

and 29 percent inbound and 71 percent outbound in evening peak periods.


The schools provided within the Context Plan will predominantly serve the nearby residents.

However, it is recognised that some students will be educated at private and independent

schools in the surrounding areas,

School statistics provided by the Association of Independent Schools of NSW (AIS) indicates

that 12 percent of primary school students and 22 percent of high school students attend

independent schools. These rates have been applied to the Context Plan’s expected school

population to quantify the expected external trips

Given the expected proximity of the schools and residences within the Context Plan and the

proposed provision of active transport facilities, it is expected that a significant proportion of

students will walk to/from school.

The NSW Travelsmart Schools Program 2006 – 2007 Summary Report provides survey outputs

of modes of travel children utilise to ingress/egress five schools, the location/name of these

schools is not provided. The data indicates that on average 35 percent of students walk to

school in the morning and 43 percent walk home from school in the afternoons and these rates

have been utilised in the trip generation assessment. The Summary Report does not provide

information with respect to cycling.

3.3.4 Trip Generation

In accordance with the above specifications/assumptions, the expected trip generation

characteristics of the LCM Precinct (per stage of development) are presented below in Table

3-4 - Table 3-8.

Table 3-4 – LCM Precinct Trip Generation 2021 (Stage 1)

Land Use Morning peak Evening peak

Inbound Outbound Inbound Outbound

Dwellings 141 562 586 147

Supermarket (internal trips) - - 141 141

Specialty Retail (internal trips) - - 24 24

Commercial (internal trips) - - 6 6

Primary School (internal and external trips) 145 87 - -

High School (internal and external trips) 355 153 30 66

Total 641 802 786 383




Dwellings 262 1,049 1,093 273


Specialty Retail (internal trips) - - 47 47





Discount Department Store - - 62 62

Total 262 1,049 1,274 455




Dwellings 255 1,018 1,061 265

Highway Services - - 18 18

Total 255 1,018 1,079 283




Dwellings 256 1,025 1,054 263


Speciality Retail (internal) - - 11 11

Commercial (internal) - - 5 5

Highway Services (internal and external trips) 18 18

Total 256 1,025 1,163 373




Low Density Dwellings 117 469 489 122

The expected trip generation characteristics of the other Context Plan Areas (northern and

southern see Figure 3-1) per stage of development are presented in Table 3-9 to Table 3-12.

Table 3-9 – Other Context Plan Areas Trip Generation 2026 (Stage 2)



Low Density Dwellings (south) 226 903 941 235


Table 3-10 – Other Context Plan Areas Trip Generation 2031 (Stage 3)



Southern Area



Speciality Retail (internal trips) - - 17 17



Subtotal 371 990 1,113 408

Northern Area


Total 597 1,892 2,054 643

Table 3-11 - Other Context Plan Areas – 2036 (Stage 4)



Southern Area



High School (internal and external trips) 355 153 30 66

Subtotal 726 1,142 970 301

Northern Area



Speciality Retail (internal trips) - - 22 22


Primary School 145 87

Subtotal 371 990 1,122 416

Total 1,097 2,132 2,092 717


Table 3-12 - Other Context Plan Areas – 2036 (Stage 5)



Low Density Dwellings (north) 226 903 941 235

A summary of the expected trip generation characteristics of the LCM Precinct and Context Plan

areas (per stage of development), is presented in Table 3-13.

Table 3-13 - Trip Generation Summary



LCM Precinct 2021 (Stage 1) 641 802 786 383

LCM Precinct 2026 (Stage 2) 262 1,049 1,274 455




Sub-Total 1,675 4,937 5,370 1,760

Other Areas 2026* (Stage 2) 226 903 941 235

Other Areas 2031* (Stage 3) 597 1,892 2,054 643

Other Areas 2036* (Stage 4) 1,097 2,132 2,092 717

Other Areas 2041* (Stage 5) 226 903 941 235

Sub Total 2,145 5,829 6,026 1,831

TOTAL 3,820 10,766 11,396 3,591

* Includes the northern and southern areas.

The data in Table 3-13 indicates that:

The LCM Precinct is expected to generate up to approximately 6,104 – 7,034 trips during

peak periods of road network activity.

The other Context Plan areas (see Figure 3-1) are expected to generate up to

approximately 7,974– 7,857 trips during peak periods of road network activity.


3.4 Trip Distribution

The following assumptions were used to distribute the trips generated by the LCM Precinct and

the Context Plan areas (see Figure 3-1) :

Distribution to external zones was calculated based on the distribution of trips included in

the RMS’s Strategic Traffic Forecasting Model.

Internal trips to and from residential zones have been distributed based on the

approximate number of dwellings in each zone (gravity method).

The northern and southern areas of the Context Plan are assumed to generate internal

trips or to generate trips that are external to the Context Plan area. That is, there are no

trips between the northern area / southern area and the LCM Precinct area. This is

because each area provides a range of facilities so that trips to the other areas would not

be required.

The exception to this is the Bringelly Village Area, which is forecast to increase in size in

the future. Provision for trips between the northern area’s residential developments and

this zone has been accounted for.

3.5 Proposed Context Plan Road Network and Access

The proposed road structure / hierarchy for the Context Plan (as detailed in the Lowes Creek

Maryland Context Plan Principles), is as follows:

A north-south sub-arterial road that intersects Greendale Road to the north and Oran

Park Town Centre to the south.

Two east-west sub-arterial roads that connect the north-south sub-arterial road with The

Northern Road.

A collector road network that distributes local traffic throughout the subject site that

provides access to residential lots and directs vehicles to sub-arterial roads at key

intersections on The Northern Road.

Local roads to provide access to residential dwellings.

A shared path network to encourage active transport within the subject site and provide

connectivity to external active transport networks.

For the purpose of analysis, it has been assumed that the sub-arterial road provides two travel

lanes in either direction and the collector road / local road networks a single travel lane in either

direction.

As displayed in Figure 3-3, within the proposed development, the intersections along the sub-

arterial road are predominantly proposed to be signalised.

The intersections on the collector road network are typically proposed to be priority controlled

(at local roads) with roundabouts and traffic signals at key locations i.e. at junctions with the

sub-arterial road network and in proximity to the schools and local centre.


Figure 3-3 – LCM Preliminary Intersection Locations/Type

The Context Plan is based on an interconnected, legible, urban-scale grid street pattern that will

provide optimal opportunities and safety for residents and visitors. The road network has been

planned and spatially integrated with the land use planning. This has facilitated a higher order

road network that is appropriate to its role (within the hierarchy) and the expected traffic

demands that will be placed upon it.

Pedestrians will be provided for on all routes with pedestrian paths provided on both sides of the

roads where active land uses are located adjacent to them. Shared pedestrian and bicycle

paths are proposed to be provided along key landform features including creeks and ridge lines

and the arterial road network.

During the next stages of the planning process, pedestrian pathways and shared

cycle/pedestrian pathways will form an essential element in the design of the proposed road

hierarchy.


In summary, the key features of the proposed road network are:

Provide a safe and convenient transport, pedestrian and cycleway network.

A road hierarchy that is compatible with the land use and range of roles that each key

road is likely to serve. This incorporates a grid of sub-arterial and collector roads to

distribute traffic within the Context Plan area and promote access to the regional road

network.

A hierarchy of roads that allows clear and direct access to The Northern Road and the

internal sub-arterial road.

An alignment of roads and intersections that support the existing and proposed road

structure and form.

Local roads will intersect collector roads at left in/left out junctions so that motorists can

utilise nearby roundabouts to undertaken U-turn manoeuvres.

Infrastructure that supports active transport utilisation within the subject site, particularly

for short (local) trips.

RMS have provided some preliminary comments with respect to the road network/access

arrangements for the LCM Precinct subject site, as follows

The grade separation of the intersection of The Northern Road and Maryland Link Road

No.3 is not supported.

The grade separation of pedestrian via a pedestrian bridge at this location is not

supported, signalised pedestrian crossings should be provided instead.

The local centre should not be located adjacent to or be accessed from The Northern

Road.

Left in/left out movements on The Northern Road between Maryland Link Roads No. 2

and No. 3 should be restricted to a service centre and a declaration lane should be

provided

The LCM Precinct Indicative Layout Plan has been designed in accordance with these

specifications.

The indicative staging of the proposed road network is displayed in Figure 3-4.


Figure 3-4 – LCM Indicative Road Network and Land Use Development

Staging

3.5.1 Road Reserve Requirements

The Camden Growth Centre Precincts: Development Control Plan (DCP) 2016 specifies the

road reserve requirements / layouts applicable to the LCM Precinct.

Not the only consideration, traffic volumes are an important input into the choice of road

reserve, as it frequently dictates the number of lanes and roadside services to be

accommodated, such as parking provisions and pedestrian accommodations. As a requirement,

the road network should also address local traffic management controls and intersection

treatments to regulate vehicle movements efficiently within the LCM Precinct.


In addition to the Camden Growth Centres DCP, GHD consulted a number of planning

guidelines and studies from councils located in or around the SWGA to gain a holistic overview

of typical road reserve requirements.

DPE ongoing investigations on integrated transport and land use planning in SWGA.

Mulgoa Road / Castlereagh Road Corridor Upgrade Between Glenmore Parkway,

Glenmore Park and Andrews Road, Penrith: Preferred Option Report (April 2017).

Penrith Development Control Plan 2014 – Volume 1, Part C: City-wide Provisions.

The road reserve elements described in this section should not be interpreted to be a design in

and of themselves; rather, they consider typical elements to be accommodated when

considering an appropriate road reserve.

The final cross-section should be confirmed during detailed design and with the approval of

Camden Council. A road reserve width should be carefully chosen to adhere to both the

Council’s requirements, as well as to provide the required cross-sectional elements safely and

be adaptable to future interventions.

Based on the combined results of the traffic modelling, road network master planning best

practice and the requirements of the Camden Growth Centres DCP, the recommend road

reserves are described below.

Sub-arterial roads

Key features of the proposed LCM Precinct sub-arterial road network (as is shown in Figure

3-5) include:

A 29.1 m road reserve width (including a 4.2 m median).

No provision for on-street parking.

Shared paths (for pedestrians and bicycle riders) on both sides of the road.

Figure 3-5 – Road Reserve Requirements for Sub-Arterial Roads

It would be possible to narrow the sub-arterial road width by reducing the median (as a width of

4.2 m is not needed). However, a median of 6.8 m would allow for a centre-running dual-

direction BRT-type service or even a tram if the need arises in the future for a dedicated, high-

medium capacity public transport service.

Accordingly, it is recommend that a 32 m road reserve for all sub-arterial road within LCM

Precinct would provide for the future provision of higher order public transport services, in

accordance with the expected increases in residential densities.


Collector roads:

The Camden City Council provides for two typical design for Collector roads, namely Type 1 –

Collector road with off-road cycle paths and Type 2 – Collector road with on-road cycle paths.

Both types provide a 20 m road reserve.

Based upon discussions with the DPE, it is propoed to provide collector roads within the LCM

precinct with 21 m road reserves (see Figure 3-6), that will be bus and heavy vehicle capable. It

will include 2.5 m shared paths to encourage active transport.

Figure 3-6 – Road Reserve Requirements for Collector Roads

Local streets:

Local streets are typically low-volume streets that connect to the higher order network (via the

collector road network) and provide access to residential properties.

Key features of the proposed LCM Precinct local street road network (as shown in Figure 3-7)

include:

A road reserve width of 16 m.

A carriageway width of 9 m.

Footpaths on either side of the road (1.2 m width).

A travel lane and a parking lane in either direction.

Cyclist are typically accommodated on the road, in non-designated infrastructure. This is

consistent with the low traffic volumes expected on the local road network.


Figure 3-7 – Road Reserve Requirements for Local Roads


4. Traffic and Transport Assessment

4.1 Modelling Methodology

4.1.1 Introduction

In accordance with instructions from RMS (see Appendix A) a three-tiered modelling process

has been adopted for the LCM Precinct Traffic and Transport Assessment, as follows:

Tier 1 – Strategic modelling using the EMME model

provided by RMS.

Tier 2 – Mesoscopic modelling using AIMSUN to

take into account the consideration of time dynamics

of the traffic demand.

Tier 3 – SIDRA intersection modelling using the

traffic volumes identified in the previous modelling

processes, accounting for the existing/proposed

infrastructure on the adjoining road network.

As typical for traffic modelling projects, the scope of this work entails a number of limitations, as

follows.

The road network structure within the mesoscopic model focuses on the higher order

road network only – motorways, arterials and sub-arterials.

Road network coding considers the coarse network developed within the Context Plan

area (i.e. arterial and sub-arterial roads). Further refinement of the local and collector

road network will be required as part of the precinct planning process.

Traffic analysis has been undertaken for the weekday morning and evening peak periods.

Traffic simulation has been limited to mesoscopic simulation of private vehicles only and

excludes public transport operations.

Table 4-1 summarises, the horizon years included in each tier of modelling (in accordance with

the proposed staging of development detailed in Table 3-13). The remainder of this Section

discusses the individual modelling tiers in detail.

Table 4-1 – Transport Modelling: Horizon Years Included

Scenario 2015 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041

Tier 1: Strategic Modelling (EMME)

Tier 2: Mesoscopic Modelling (AIMSUN)

Tier 3: Intersection modelling (SIDRA)

4.2 Strategic Modelling

This section provides an overview of the strategic modelling task, carried out using RMS’s

Strategic Traffic Forecasting Model (STFM), built using the EMME software platform.

The strategic traffic modelling is required to:


Distribute the trip ends4 produced in the trip generation analysis in a realistic manner.

Assign the resulting trip matrices, combined with forecast background traffic for the years

and scenarios shown in Table 4-2.

Provide analysis of the strategic impacts of the LCM Precinct and the wider Context Plan

area rezoning.

Produce traversal demand matrices that represent the project as a subarea within the

Greater Sydney Area for all scenarios to assist in the development of the mesoscopic

modelling.

RMS’s strategic model contains the background traffic demand growth derived from Bureau of

Statistical Analytics (BSA) and therefore, is suitable for traffic assignment for the wider road

network. The strategic model includes the years starting from 2015 up to 2041 with increments

of 5 years.

The model coding updated in the strategic modelling to reflect the most up-to-date development

land use and road network assumptions for the Context Plan area, including:

Future road network in the vicinity of development.

Development traffic generation and attraction.

Table 4-2 presents all the scenarios for which the strategic modelling was undertaken.

Table 4-2 – Strategic Modelling Scenarios

Scenario 2015 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 Notes

Base Year RMS model

Business As Usual RMS model



Wider Context Plan Area

All development (including northern and southern areas)

In accordance with the indicative development staging plan for LCM Precinct (Figure 3-4),

Table 4-3 overlays the indicative development stages with the STFM horizon year models.

Table 4-3 – Alignment of LCM Staging with STFM Model Years

Development Stage Development Timelines Included in STFM Model

Year

Stage 1 2017 to 2021 2021

Stage 2 2022 to 2026 2026

Stage 3 2027 to 2031 2031

Stage 4 2032 to 2036 2036

Stage 5 2037 to 2041 2041

Some of the key assumptions that were used for the strategic modelling tasks include the

following:

4 A ‘trip end’ is the number of trips going to or from a travel zone (the ends of the trip). This is

equivalent to the trip generation of the travel zone.


The provision of a future train station in proximity to the subject site is excluded from the

transport modelling (in accordance with instruction from RMS).

The Bringelly Village area trip generation is assumed to be additional to the trips included

in the RMS STFM.

Figure 4-1 through Figure 4-5 present the results strategic modelling (2021 – 2041), expressed

as volume-over-capacity (V/C) ratios (accounting for the trips generated within the wider

Context Plan area) for the AM and PM peak periods.

The V/C ratios are informative, as they are indicative of road network operations and provide

high-level indications of where additional travel lanes might be required. V/C ratios greater than

80 percent are indicative of a road network approaching capacity, while V/C ratios of 100

percent (or more) are indicative of road networks experiencing traffic demand in excess of their

capacity.

In summary, the following conclusions are drawn from the strategic modelling outputs:

Prior to 2026 (see Figure 4-1), no links have a V/C ratio greater than 80 percent. In

general terms, this means congestion on the network is minimal.

In 2026 (see Figure 4-2), during both the AM and PM peaks the V/C ratio exceeds 80

percent along The Northern Road between the northernmost access road to the Lowes

Creek Precinct and Bringelly Road. A V/C ratio exceeding 100 percent is shown over a

short section along The Northern Road.

By 2031 (see Figure 4-3), additional north / south road linkages between Lowes Creek

Maryland Precinct and the adjacent context plan areas have been included. These

alleviate congestion along The Northern Road (by providing alternative routes), where the

V/C ratios are less than 100 percent even though the traffic volumes have increased. This

highlights the benefit of providing additional connectivity between the precincts in parallel

to The Northern Road.

By 2036 (see Figure 4-4), V/C ratios of greater than 100 percent are shown over multiple

sections along The Northern Road particularly in proximity to Bringelly Road during both

the AM and PM peak periods. It is noted that without the trips generated by the LCM

Precinct, sections of The Northern Road would likely continue to operate with a V/C ratio

greater than 100 percent.

In 2041 (see Figure 4-5):

– Within the LCM Precinct, all links are shown to have V/C ratios lower than 80 percent.

– Within the larger Context Plan, only one link (located in the southern area) has a V/C

ratio that exceeds 100 percent.

– Nearly the entirety of The Northern Road (northbound) has a V/C ratio that exceeds

80 percent.

– Similar to the observations for 2036, all approaches at The Northern Road at the

Bringelly Road intersection have V/C ratios that exceed 100 percent.

In summary, the outputs of the strategic modelling indicates that even without the trips

generated by the Context Plan area, The Northern Road should be widened to three lanes in

either direction between 2031 and 2036, to facilitate capacity that can accommodate the

expected travel demand.

More details of the strategic modelling outputs are included in Appendix D.


Figure 4-1 – LCM Strategic Modelling Results for 2021 – V/C Ratios

AM Peak Period (07:00 – 09:00)

PM Peak Period (16:00 – 18:00)


Figure 4-4 – LCM Strategic Modelling Results for 2036– V/C Ratios




4.3 Mesoscopic Modelling

Mesoscopic modelling takes account of the time dynamics of traffic. It is useful for determining

optimum vehicle routes between all origins and destinations in the network based on congestion

and travel times throughout the modelled period. Mesoscopic modelling provides a greater level

of understanding of network operations than strategic modelling can provide.

4.3.1 Base Year Traffic Modelling

GHD developed a base model using AIMSUN (version 8.1.3 R40314) for the traffic analyses

undertaken in 2016 that was based on the Context Plan. The base AIMSUN model has been

calibrated using traffic data collected during its development in 2016, as well as validated

against surveyed travel times in the same year. Appendix E contains a short report detailing

the development, calibration and validation of the Base 2016 AIMSUN model.

In summary, the Base 2016 AIMSUN was developed for the four periods displayed in Table 4-4.

Table 4-4 – Mesoscopic Modelled Periods

Modelling period Peak period Warm up period Cool down period

Weekday AM 05:15 – 09:15 1 hour 1 hour

Weekday PM 15:15 – 19:15 1 hour 1 hour

Upon commencement of the mesoscopic modelling stage, GHD confirmed with the DPE that for

the current Context Plan, the Base 2016 model was suitable for use without re-basing, re-

calibrating or re-validating it. SIDRA modelling stage (see Section 4.4).

Figure 4-6 shows the wider study area with the roads and intersections included in the

mesoscopic modelling. The intersection treatments shown, represent initials assumptions with

respect to the precinct’s functionality, the ultimate treatments are discussed in more detail in the

SIDRA modelling stage (see Section 4.4).


Figure 4-6 – LCM Mesoscopic Modelling Study Area and Long Term Road Network


The key assumptions that have been made with respect to the Context Plan area’s road

network (in accordance with the proposed hierarchy) are detailed in Table 4-5.

Table 4-5 – Mesoscopic Modelling Lane Types and Assumed Capacities

Road Type Speed Lanes Capacity

Arterial 80 km/h 2 or 3 per direction 1,700 veh/hr/lane

Sub-arterial 60 km/h 2 per direction 1,200 veh/hr/lane

Collector 40 km/h 1 per direction 900 veh/hr/lane

Local 37 km/h 1 per direction 600 veh/hr/lane

4.3.2 Future Year Traffic Modelling

AIMSUN models have been developed for the horizon years of 2021, 2026 and 2031. The 2036

and 2041 horizons were excluded from the mesoscopic stage due to the uncertainty of the long-

term forecasts and the coarse assumptions built into the STFM model (as discussed later in this

section). This approach was discussed and agreed with RMS and DPE.

Committed (External) Road Network upgrades

Within the project study area, both The Northern Road and Bringelly Road (east of The Northern

Road) will be upgraded prior to the commencement of operation Western Sydney Airport (which

is projected to open in 2026) and the majority of the expected population and job growth in the

South West Growth Area.

As described previously, key features of the upgraded The Northern Road are:

Two lanes in each direction with a four metre wide shoulder and wide central median

allowing for widening to six lanes when required in the future.

A grade separated interchange at Bringelly Road to the east of Bringelly Village shops

and the existing intersection with Bringelly Road/Greendale Road.

Nine intersection upgrades with new traffic lights (seven of which are located within the

Context Plan area).

Unless otherwise noted, intersection upgrades along The Northern Road generally entail the

upgrade to a four-way, signalised intersections with the following characteristics (see Figure

4-21:

Two through lanes.

Separate short left-turn lanes left, right turning lanes and departure lanes.

In accordance with the current construction activity on The Northern Road and information

provided by RMS, it has assumed that all upgrades would be operational by 2021, which aligns

with the first horizon year for analysis for the LCM Precinct.

A Roads and Maritime Services Circular (RMS 17.039 from July 2017) provides detailed layouts

at each upgraded intersection on The Northern Road. These have been used as the basis of

the geometric layout of all upgrades in horizon year AIMSUN models. Table 4-6 illustrates the

upgraded intersection layouts from the RMS Circular next to the corresponding layout coded in

the 2021 AIMSUN model. The locations of each of the intersections within the context of Lowes

Creek Maryland is displayed in Figure 4-6.


Table 4-6 – Intersection Upgrades along The Northern Road

Upgraded Design (as of July 2017) Representation in 2021 AIMSUN model

Site 2 – Marylands Link Road 1 Intersection

Site 3 -- Marylands Link Road 2 Intersection (i.e. southern access road to Lowes Creek Maryland

Precinct)



Site 4 -- Marylands Link Road 3 Intersection (i.e. central access road to Lowes Creek Maryland

Precinct)

Site 5 – Lowes Creek Link Road Intersection (i.e. northernmost access to Lowes Creek Maryland

Precinct)



Site 6 – Belmore Road Intersection

Site 7 – The Northern Road and Bringelly Road Interchange

Prior to receiving the layouts shown in Table 4-6, GHD obtained a concept design layout of The

Northern Road’s committed design5, overlaid on an aerial photo. The design did not specifically

indicate bus lanes at the intersections, and GHD mistakenly interpreted the bus lanes

downstream of each intersection to be acceleration lanes for vehicles entering from the side (i.e.

minor) roads.

5 http://www.rms.nsw.gov.au/documents/projects/sydney-west/the-northern-road/northern-road-ref-appendix-a.pdf


Consequently, when translating the layouts into AIMSUN (shown in the right-hand column in

Table 4-6), GHD coded all left-turn movements onto The Northern Road as being continuous

(i.e. unsignalised) movements with short acceleration lanes, rather than the intended treatment

as signalised turns.

This treatment offers the advantage of minimising turn delays, particularly during peak periods

of operations. However, the disadvantage is that continuous left-turn lanes require larger radii

and additional road reserve area (i.e. sellable land) to implement. The precise impact of this can

be determined at a later (detailed design) stage.

All AIMSUN models incorporated continuous left-turns (i.e. a separate lane for turning vehicles

is provided on The Northern Road, see Figure 4-21). In the SIDRA assessments (see Section

4.4), a sensitivity analysis has been undertaken based on both implementing the continuous

left-turns and the signalised left-turns for all horizon years up to 2031.

Internal Road Network: Access Management Principles

Three overarching principles were prepared by GHD for representing access to/from

development areas specifically along the sub-arterial roads with two lanes per direction, namely:

Access Principle 1: Full access (i.e. across the median – see Figure 4-7).

Access Principle 2: Partial access via left-in/left-outs (see Figure 4-8).

Access Principle 3: Combination of Principles 1 and 2 (see Figure 4-9).

Access Principle 1

Figure 4-7 – Access Principle 1: Full Access across the Median

Advantages:

Provides the most direct access to and from development areas.

Vehicles entering the development via a right-turn (i.e. across the median) can “wait” in

dedicated right-turn bays within the median without impeding through traffic along the

main road (if the median is wide enough).

If a median of adequate width is provided (typically more than 6 m), vehicles exiting via a

right-turn can wait safely in the median area for a safe gap in oncoming traffic.


Disadvantages:

Vehicles exiting the development via a right-turn have to:

– Cross two oncoming lanes (from their right) plus the median width.

– Often use a two-stage crossing and “wait” in the median if (as expected) the main road

volumes are high.

Might require safe “waiting” space in the median (i.e. a wider median).

High volumes along the main road could create dangerous right-turns.

Higher speed along the main road because of enhanced right-of-way.

High volumes along the main road could necessitate additional intersection control (i.e.

signals) which could impact the perceived mobility function of the road.

Access Principle 2

Figure 4-8 – Access Principle 2: Partial Access via Left-In/Left-Outs

Advantages:

Improved safety, as vehicles exiting the side road only have to merge with traffic coming

from one direction.

The mobility function of the main road is maintained i.e. through movements are not

opposed by right turns.

Disadvantages:

Vehicles are required to take longer routes, to find median openings / intersections /

roundabouts to turn right or turn around.

Limited access / egress opportunities can result in drivers making U-turns at the first

available intersection (often at signalised junctions), resulting in potentially unsafe

behaviour.

Access Principle 3

Figure 4-9 – Access Principle 3: Combination of Principles 1 and 2


Advantages:

Left-in/left-out access is provided as a general rule, but supplemented by roundabouts to

facilitate U-turns and access between signalised junctions.

Aims to build on the perceived strengths of aforementioned Principles 1, while reducing

their perceived shortcomings.

Rational balance between maintaining mobility the function of the main road while

providing safe access to the Context Plan area.

Disadvantages:

Mobility function of the main road can be compromised due to frequent roundabouts.

Access to/from certain development clusters will still be more indirect/circuitous than in

the case full access.

GHD presented access principles to the DPE on the 21st May 2018 and highlighted the key

advantages and disadvantages. It was agreed that the mesoscopic modelling would proceed in

accordance with Access Principle 3, i.e. a combination approach.

The intersection treatments within the LCM Precinct used in the mesoscopic modelling (in

accordance with Access Principal 3) are displayed in Figure 4-10. All other accesses between

these intersections (many of them visible in the background in Figure 4-10) were assumed to

be left-in / left-out only.

Figure 4-10 – Mesoscopic Modelling Intersection Treatments


Future Year Traffic Volumes

The strategic modelling stage provided the future travel demand for the study area, for each

horizon year up to 2041. The study area travel demand was extracted as traversal (i.e. subarea)

matrices from the EMME model, and incorporated into the 2016 Base AIMSUN model together

with the road network applicable to the particular horizon year of analysis. Appendix F details

the methodology employed to superimpose the strategic (EMME) demands onto the

mesoscopic (AIMSUN) models.

Figure 4-11 presents the AM peak hour travel demands within the subarea for all horizon years,

as extracted from the EMME models.

Figure 4-11 – Future Travel Demand within the Study Area

Figure 4-11 highlights the following:

The total subarea travel demand (blue) shows a sustained increase in all horizon years.

This aligns with the envisaged growth within the South West Growth Centre.

Lowes Creek Maryland Precinct’s travel demand (orange) represents approximately 20

percent of the totals demand within the subarea by 2021. Between 2026 and 2041 its

share of the subarea travel demand is relatively constant, between 33 percent and 36

percent.

Over the period between 2021 and 2041, the total traffic volumes generated by LCM

Precinct will increase by approximately 5,500 vehicles per hour (i.e. from 700 to 6,200

vehicles per hour), while the absolute increase within the Context Plan area was

approximately 13,400 vehicles per hour (i.e. from 3,600 to 17,000 vehicles per hour).

On 5th July 2018 GHD presented the three-tiered preliminary modelling results to

representatives of the RMS and DPE and highlighted the large increase in traffic volumes within

the Context Plan area as displayed in Figure 4-11.


During the presentation and the ensuing discussions, it was agreed that:

Mesoscopic modelling would be undertaken for all horizon years up to and including 2031

but not for 2036 and 2041. RMS agreed that the uncertainties underlying future STFM

predictions beyond 2031 are too coarse to include in the mesoscopic modelling stage and

that predictions are car-centric with minimal consideration given to mass public transport

services that may occur at a later time.

RMS instructed GHD that the transport modelling should include the full development

without the provision of the future station, as the train station is not in the forward works

programs and there is uncertainty on the timing. This assumption also contributed to high

car-centric traffic growth in the area.

The agreed timing of the proposed upgrades of The Northern Road and Bringelly Road /

Greendale Road are as follows:

The Northern Road – two travel lanes per direction up 2031 and three travel lanes per

direction subsequent to this.

Bringelly Road / Greendale Road – one travel lanes per direction up 2031 and two travel

lanes per direction subsequent to this.

Network Operations Optimisation

For the mesoscopic modelling of the 2021, 2026 and 2031 horizon years, all signalised

intersections were optimised in terms of layout and signal phasing with the aim of minimising

intersection delays.

Optimisation involved an iterative interaction process between AIMSUN and SIDRA, as

illustrated by Figure 4-12, generally involving the following steps:

Step 1: Extract turn volumes and vehicle compositions at each intersection from

AIMSUN for the network AM and PM peak hour.

Step 2: In SIDRA, develop intersection layouts that are consistent with the AIMSUN

layouts and import the turn volumes from Step 1.

Step 3: In SIDRA, develop signal phasing and cycle times using the method of “Minimum

Intersection Delay” and a LOS D target at worst. Required intersection upgrades (i.e.

additional lanes or layout changes) are identified in this step.

Step 4: In AIMSUN, update the signal phasing plans, signal offsets and/or layouts using

the results of Step 3 and repeat the traffic assignment.

Step 5: Repeat Steps 1 to 4 until the traffic volumes are generally stable between

successive AIMSUN assignments.


Figure 4-12 – Intersection Optimisation Process

The STFM forecasts highlight The Northern Road as an important high-order arterial road within

the SWGA and suggests that future traffic volumes could exceed 3,000 vehicles in the peak

direction during the weekday peak hour.

For network optimisation, SIDRA’s Network Analysis feature was utilised to simultaneously

minimise overall delays along The Northern Road and improve traffic progression through the

intersections of interest. Figure 4-13 shows the routes where signal progression was prioritised

in the AM and PM peak hours.


Figure 4-13 – Optimised Traffic Progression along The Northern Road

AM Peak Hour (Northbound) PM Peak Hour (Southbound)

This approach of basing optimising on the “Minimum Intersection Delay” has the following

perceived advantages and disadvantages:

Advantages:

Traffic signals are synchronised to improve overall north-south travel, in accordance with

the major traffic flows.

In reality, the north-south movement will likely be prioritised given The Northern Road’s

intended function as a “movement” corridor, and the large volumes of vehicles it is

expected to accommodate.

Disadvantages:

North-south movements are prioritised at the expense of the side-road traffic volumes,

which typically experience longer delays.

SIDRA finds a balance between the green-time requirements of all the intersections.

Depending on the traffic volumes at each intersection (and the ratio between main and

side road volumes), it is possible that a few intersections can be allocated more green-

time than they require along the prioritised route, while others are allocated less.

When the SIDRA optimisations are transferred to AIMSUN, it often involves small manual

adjustments to counteract the imbalances highlighted at the preceding two points.


4.3.3 Mesoscopic Modelling Results

This section presents the results of mesoscopic modelling (AM and PM peak hours) completed

to support the LCM Precinct (traffic volumes, V/C and average delays), as described in Table

4-7.

Table 4-7 – Summary of Mesoscopic Modelling Results

Year Traffic Vol (veh/h). and V/C Average Delays (sec)

2021 Figure 4-14 Figure 4-15



The links are shades to show the estimated V/C ratios as well as the modelled traffic volumes,

as follows:

The expected traffic volumes are located next to each link.

Low V/C ratios (less than 0.75) are coloured green, yellow and orange, while high V/C

ratios (greater than 0.75) are coloured orange and red.

Delays associated with a LOS E or worse a coloured red, while delays associated with

LOS D or better are coloured green, yellow and orange.

In addition to these figures, high-level delay calculations, extracted from AIMSUN, are included

in Appendix G.


Figure 4-14 – Mesoscopic Modelling Results for 2021 (Stage 1) – Traffic Volumes and V/C Ratios

AM Peak Hour (07:15 – 08:15)

PM Peak Hour (17:15 – 18:15)


Figure 4-15 – Mesoscopic Modelling Results for 2021 (Stage 1) – Average Delay

AM Peak Hour (07:15 – 08:15)

PM Peak Hour (17:15 – 18:15)


Figure 4-16 – Mesoscopic Modelling Results for 2026 (Stages 2 & 3) – Traffic Volumes and V/C Ratios

AM Peak Hour (07:15 – 08:15)

PM Peak Hour (17:15 – 18:15)


Figure 4-17 – Mesoscopic Modelling Results for 2026 (Stages 2 & 3) – Average Delay

AM Peak Hour (07:15 – 08:15)

PM Peak Hour (17:15 – 18:15)


Figure 4-18 – Mesoscopic Modelling Results for 2031 (Stages 3 & 4) – Traffic Volumes and V/C Ratios

AM Peak Hour (07:15 – 08:15)

PM Peak Hour (17:15 – 18:15)


Figure 4-19 – Mesoscopic Modelling Results for 2031 (Stages 3 & 4) – Average Delay

AM Peak Hour (07:15 – 08:15)

PM Peak Hour (17:15 – 18:15)


The intersection treatments shown in Figure 4-10, represent the assumptions that were

included in the mesoscopic model. The final treatments are summarised in Section 4.4 (SIDRA

modelling). It is noted that mesoscopic modelling was completed up to the 2031 horizon year, in

accordance with the approach agreed with RMS and DPE on 5th July 2018.

In summary, the following conclusions are drawn from the mesoscopic modelling stage:

By 2021 (see Figure 4-14 and Figure 4-15):

– The V/C ratios on the internal road network are generally less than 25 percent.

– The average delays are generally within acceptable LOS limits.


– The V/C ratios within the LCM Precinct is generally less than 50 percent, while the V/C

ratios along The Northern Road are approaching 75 percent.

– The average link delays on the internal road network are generally within acceptable

limits (typically LOS C).


– The V/C ratios on the internal road network is generally in the 50 percent range, which

suggest that the internal road network and hierarchy is sufficient to cater to the

expected trip generation.

– V/C ratios exceed 75 percent in the northbound direction along nearly all sections of

The Northern Road during the AM peak hour. This result indicates that the two lanes

per direction along The Northern Road should be required to be widened to three

lanes in each direction after 2031 to facilitate an acceptable V/C ratio.

– During the PM peak hour the southbound movement is the largest, with V/C ratios

approaching 75 percent along most sections.

– Average delays at intersections (internal and external) are within the acceptable LOS

D range. This suggests that the modelled intersection controls (i.e. traffic signals or

roundabouts) provide sufficient capacity to accommodate the expected demand

without causing unacceptable levels of congestion on the proposed road network.

The following observations are made regarding additional future connectivity to the LCM

Precinct (i.e. to the northern and southern precincts) that were assumed in this study:

Consider additional connectivity to/from the west of LCM Precinct i.e. potentially links to

the Outer Sydney Orbital. Although these linkages were not considered (as agreed with

RMS), it is likely (if they become available) that these will contribute positively to the wider

context plan and reduce traffic volumes at the intersections along The Northern Road.

The long-term potential Outer Sydney Orbital (shown in blue in Figure 4-20) provides the

opportunity for a western access to / from the larger context plan area. However, the best

available information at the time of writing indicated that the Outer Sydney Orbital is

considered a very long-term investment, and would likely only be realised by a 2056

planning horizon.


Figure 4-20 – Potential Sydney Outer Orbital


4.4 SIDRA Modelling

SIDRA analysis has been undertaken for the external and internal intersections of interest within

and adjacent to the LCM Precinct utilising the turning volumes extracted from AIMSUN and the

proposed road geometry for each horizon year scenario.

The detailed design drawings for the intersection upgrades on The Northern Road (see

Appendix B) have been used to inform the road geometry inputs to the SIDRA models.

The following naming convention has been used to identify the scenarios tested in SIDRA:

Scenario A – separate left turns set as signalised for the east and west approaches to The

Northern Road.

Scenario B – left turn slip lanes set as continuous for the east and west approaches to The

Northern Road.

It is noted that the figures in RMS Circular (RMS 17.039 from July 2017 (as displayed in Table

4-6) have provided the basis of the geometric layouts used in the SIDRA analysis.

The Scenario B layout, as indicated in Figure 4-21 below, will reduce the delays for vehicles

seeking to turn left onto The Northern Road as they can merge downstream with through traffic.

The trigger points for upgrading The Northern Road from two lanes per direction to six lanes per

direction have also been investigated in this analysis.

Generally, intersection geometry used on The Northern Road resemble layouts displayed in

Figure 4-21. The general phasing used for each intersection type were taken from standard

RMS signal phasing arrangements.

Figure 4-21 – Indicative Road geometry on The Northern Road

Scenario A – Signalised left turn slips (E-

W)

Scenario B –Continuous left turn slips (E-W)

The typical phasing used in the SIDRA analysis is displayed in Figure 4-22.


Figure 4-22 – Indicative Signal Phasing

Typically, single diamond overlap phasing was applied to intersections along The Northern

Road, with the exception of double diamond overlap phasing used where dual right turns lanes

were proposed on both the north / south approach and east / west approaches (Site 5).

Where dual right turns lanes were proposed, dedicated right turn signals (i.e. arrows) were

provided.

Legend:


4.4.1 Assessment Criteria

The intersections of interest have been assessed based on overall average delay per vehicles

(sec/veh). The performance of a road network is largely dependent on the operating

performance of key intersections of interest, which are critical capacity control points. SIDRA 7

intersection modelling software was used to assess the proposed peak hour operating

performance of intersections of interest on the surrounding road network. The criteria for

evaluating the operational performance of intersections is provided by the RMS Guide to Traffic

Generating Developments (2002) as displayed in Table 2-2.

The criteria for evaluating the operational performance of the intersections of interest have been

based on a qualitative measure (i.e. Level of Service), which is applied to each band of overall

average vehicle delay. Typically, an overall LOS D or better is considered acceptable. Delays

greater than this, particularly for the future planning of road networks is considered

unsatisfactory.

4.4.2 Assumptions and parameter settings

The following parameter settings and assumptions have been used in SIDRA:

The internal and external road network was modelled for three horizon years (2021, 2026

and 2031) to coincide with each stage of the development.

The Northern Road was modelled as a co-ordinated route and the intersections were

offset in the SIDRA program to account for this.

A cycle time of 140 seconds was assumed for the intersections on The Northern Road.

A cycle time of 60 – 140 seconds was assumed for signalised junctions on the internal

road network.

The layout of the road networks used in the SIDRA analysis to assess the intersections of

interest (for each horizon year of analysis) are included in Appendix H.

4.4.3 Signalised Junctions

2021 SIDRA Results

Figure 4-23 shows the road network and intersections analysed in SIDRA for the 2021 horizon

year.


Figure 4-23 – LCM 2021 SIDRA Network

The SIDRA results of the 2021 horizon year are displayed in Table 4-8.

Table 4-8 - 2021 LOS Summary

Site Scenario A* Scenario B*

AM PM AM PM

1 D E D E

2 A A A A

3 B B A A

4 A A A A

5 B B B B

6 A A A A

7 A A A A

8 A A A A

*LOS is based on overall average delay (sec) of the signalised intersection


The SIDRA results in Table 4-8 indicate that for 2021:

All intersections except Site 1 perform satisfactorily with spare capacity.

Site 1 (the grade separated intersection of The Northern Road and Bringelly Road)

operates at capacity in the PM peak (for both scenarios). The north and south

approaches of Site 1 are prioritised over the east and west approaches due to the

coordinated route on The Northern Road. This increases the average delay at the east

and west approaches and the overall intersection.

Overall, in 2021 the road network performs satisfactorily, with no trigger points for further

upgrades of The Northern Road, which is consistent with the outputs of the mesoscopic

and strategic modelling.

2026 SIDRA results

In 2026, the road network expands to include sites 12, 15, 18 and 19 (on the proposed collector

road) as shown in Figure 4-24.

Figure 4-24 – LCM 2026 SIDRA Network

The SIDRA results of the 2026 horizon year are displayed in Table 4-9.


Table 4-9 – 2026 LOS Summary

Site Scenario A* Scenario B*

AM PM AM PM

1 D D D D

2 A A A A

3 F C B B

4 C B A B

5 E B C B

6 C B C B

7 A B A B

8 A A A A

12 B A B A

15 B A B A

18 B B B B

19 B A B


The majority of intersections perform satisfactorily with spare capacity.

Site 1 is expected to perform satisfactorily at LOS D. This improvement may be explained

by automatic adjustments to signal timing by the SIDRA program, which can cause slight

improvements in performance and LOS due to increases in traffic volumes from side

roads.

Site 3 (Scenario A) is expected to operate with a poor LOS during AM peak periods,

without continuous left turn lanes.

Overall, in 2026 the road network performs satisfactorily, with limited trigger points (i.e.

poor operation of only at sites 3 and 5 in the AM peak) for the further upgrade of The

Northern Road identified, which is consistent with the outputs of the mesoscopic and

strategic modelling.

Accordingly, to minimise delays, the continuous left turn lanes (Scenario B) are the preferred

intersection layouts along The Northern Road.

In accordance with the 2026 SIDRA outputs for Scenario A (which indicates that some

intersections on The Northern Road are expected to operate with a poor LOS), the 2031 horizon

year analysis has been undertaken with:

Two travel lanes in either direction on The Northern Road.

Three travel lanes in either direction on The Northern Road.

2031 SIDRA results (two travel lanes in either direction on The Northern Road)

The signalised intersections included in the 2031 SIDRA analysis are displayed in Figure 4-25.

It includes the proposed internal north / south sub-arterial road network. It assumes that The

Northern Road will provide two travel lanes in either direction.


Figure 4-25 – LCM 2031 Road Network (two travel lanes in either direction on

The Northern Road)

The SIDRA results of the 2031 horizon year with two travel lanes per direction on The Northern

Road are displayed in Table 4-10.


Table 4-10 - 2031 SIDRA Results Summary (two travel lanes in either

direction on The Northern Road)

Site

Scenario A Scenario B

AM PM AM PM

1 D D D D

2 F B B B

3 F C B B

4 C C B C

5 F C B C

6 D B D B

7 B A B A

8 B B B B

9 B A B A

11 B A B A

12 B B B B

13 A A A A

14 A B A B

15 C A C A

18 A B A B

19 A A A A


Unsatisfactory levels of service occur at sites 2, 3, and 5 for Scenario A in the AM peak.

The majority of intersections (including all the internal signalised junctions) perform

satisfactorily with spare capacity.

Site 1 is expected to perform satisfactorily (LOS D). This is consistent with the provision

of additional capacity on the proposed north / south sub-arterial road network providing

an alternative route parallel to and west of The Northern Road that connects to Bringelly

Road

For Scenario B (continuous left turn lanes), all intersections operate at satisfactory

conditions with spare capacity.

The poor LOS at sites 2, 3 and 5 are predominantly associated with vehicles on the east and

west approaches, as priority is allocated to northbound and southbound movements along The

Northern Road.

The outputs from the mesoscopic model indicate that in AM peak periods, large volumes of

vehicles originating within the LCM Precinct will seek to travel northbound on The Northern

Road. Accordingly, continuous left turn lanes from the west approaches onto The Northern

Road (Scenario B) improve overall intersection performance considerably and are the preferred

intersection layouts.

2031 SIDRA results (three travel lanes in either direction on The Northern Road)

The SIDRA in Table 4-10 indicate that without continuous left turn lanes (as detailed in the

Scenario B analysis), some intersections on The Northern Road are expected to operate with a

poor LOS.

The road network was modelled with three-lanes each way on The Northern Road (see Figure

4-26), to increase capacity due to the trigger points identified in the previous analysis.


Figure 4-26 – LCM 2031 Road Network (three travel lanes in either direction

on The Northern Road)

The SIDRA results of the 2031 horizon year with three travel lanes per direction on The

Northern Road are displayed in Table 4-11.


Table 4-11 - 2031 LOS Summary (three travel lanes in either direction on The

Northern Road)

Site Scenario A Scenario B

AM PM AM PM

1 D D D D

2 F B B B

3 F B A B

4 B C B B

5 D B C C

6 D B D B

7 B A B A

8 B B B B

9 B A B A

11 B A B A

12 B B B B

13 A A A A

14 A B A B

15 C A C A

18 A B A B

19 A A A A

The SIDRA results in Table 4-12 indicate that for 2031 with The Northern Road widened to

three travel lanes in either direction:

In Scenario A, sites 2 and 3 will continue to operate with a poor LOS in the AM peak even

with the additional road capacity. Again, these delays are predominantly associated with

vehicles on the east and west approaches.

With the provision of additional capacity on The Northern Road site 4 improves from LOS

C to LOS B and site 5 improves from LOS F to LOS D during the AM peak. Site 3 and site

5 also improves from LOS C to LOS B in the PM peak.

In Scenario B, site 3 improves from LOS B to LOS A in the AM peak, and from LOS C to

LOS B in the PM peak.

Overall, Scenario B improves the road network such that it is operating at satisfactorily.

This is consistent with the previous analysis for 2031 (two travel lanes in either direction)

and indicates that the provsion of continuous lanes may delay the requirement to upgrade

The Northern Road to three lanes in either direction.

Signalised Intersection Summary

In summary:

The signalised intersections of interest are expected to predominantly operate with a

good LOS in the 2021 and 2026 horizon year.

All the internal signalised intersection are expected to operate with a good LOS through

to and including the 2031 horizon year.

For Scenario A, even with the additional capacity associated with three travel lanes in

either direction on The Northern Road, intersections 2 and 3 are expected to operate with

a poor LOS by 2031.


The delays at intersection on The Northern Road with poor LOS (in Scenario A) are



Accordingly, continuous left turn lanes from the approaches onto The Northern Road


requirement to upgrade The Northern Road to three lanes in either direction..

4.4.4 Roundabout SIDRA analysis

An assessment of key roundabout locations within the internal road network has been based on

criteria outlined in the RMS Guide to Traffic Generating Developments.

The indicative locations of the roundabouts within the LCM Precinct is displayed in Figure 4-27.

Figure 4-27 – LCM 2031 internal Roundabout Locations

An example of the intersection geometry used in the analysis of the roundabouts is displayed in

Figure 4-28, with two travel lanes on the sub-arterial road network and a single travel lane on

the collector and local road network.


Figure 4-28 – Indicative Roundabout Geometry

Table 4-12 provides a summary of the SIDRA results for the 2031 traffic volumes at identified roundabouts within the study area.

Table 4-12 - 2031 SIDRA Roundabout Summary

Notes:

The level of service for priority-controlled intersections is based on the highest average delay per vehicle for the

most critical movement.

The degree of saturation is defined as the ratio of the arrival flow (demand) to the capacity of each approach.

Table 4-12 indicates that for the 2031 scenario all roundabout intersections of interest would

have an acceptable Level of Service based on overall average delay (i.e. better than Level of

Service D).

Site number

AM Peak PM Peak

LOS Degree of saturation

LOS Degree of saturation

30 A 0.239 B 0.162

31 B 0.460 B 0.363

32 A 0.196 B 0.242

34 B 0.087 A 0.073

35 B 0.195 B 0.245

36 B 0.330 B 0.236

37 A 0.075 A 0.080

38 A 0.073 A 0.120

39 B 0.193 B 0.186

40 B 0.457 B 0.508


All SIDRA outputs for the signalised intersections and roundabouts are included in Appendix I.

4.5 Road Network Master Plan

4.5.1 Master Plan Summary

Based on the results of the three levels of modelling presented in this study, we recommend the

following road network hierarchy for the LCM Precinct (up to 2031) as displayed in Figure 4-29:

Four-lane sub-arterial roads (60 km/h) bounding the northern, southern and western

perimeter of the precinct area that connects directly to The Northern Road and the

adjacent precincts. In accordance with its movement function, parking will not be

permitted on the sub-arterial road network. Separated shared paths will be provided on

the sub-arterial road network.

Two-lane collector roads (50 km) that provide access to the interior of the precinct and

key land uses (such as the school and local centre) and connect to the sub-arterial roads

and local roads (in accordance with the proposed road hierarchy). Access density is

higher along these roads and on-street parking is permitted.

Both the sub-arterial and collector road networks will be designed to accommodate bus

routes (3.5 m travel lanes required).

Key intersections along the collector and sub-arterial road networks are signalised with

roundabouts to provide additional access and U-turn opportunities (as detailed in “access

principal 3” - Figure 4-9).

Additional access along sub-arterial roads and collector roads should only be provided

through left in / left out (LILO) priority controlled intersections.

Local streets (50 km/h) that provide access to individual properties.


Figure 4-29 – Lowes Creek Maryland Proposed Road Hierarchy

4.5.2 Road Network Staging

The road network staging is closely related to the staging of the development of the LCM

Precinct. Figure 4-30 presents the proposed staged implementation of the road network and

intersection control for the LCM Precinct as it is sequentially developed.


Figure 4-30 – LCM Staged Implementation of the Road Network

Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 and 4


4.6 Travel Demand Management

In accordance with the projected levels of growth within the Context Plan and the wider SWGA,

it is expected that increased traffic volumes will increase delays at key intersections, particularly

on The Northern Road.

Travel demand management (TDM) is a term for strategies that encourage a shift from single

occupant private vehicles trips. TDM improve transport efficiencies while reducing the negative

impacts associated with the use of private motor vehicles. Given the projected congestion at key

intersections on The Northern Road (particularly during peak periods of road network activity),

the implementation of TDM has the potential to provide significant utility to residents and visitors

to the LCM Precinct. TDMs also provide the utility to enhance the operation of the precinct’s

internal road.

The most effective TDM strategies focus on both incentives for non-car use (e.g.: provision of

high quality bicycle riding routes) and disincentives for car use (e.g.: parking fees). The following

sub-sections discuss commonly used approaches which could be adopted. They are based on

either employer based schemes or area-wide schemes.

A transport efficient environment is characterised by land uses that provide opportunities for

active transport and public transport trips. Mixing housing and employment with other services

and retail opportunities allows residents to undertake some of their necessary trips i.e. journey

to works and shops without using a car.

Accordingly, TDMs should be applied to LCM Precinct to discourage single occupancy private

vehicle trips, this could potentially include:

Prioritising on-road public transport through enhanced signal and road space priority.

Designing compact communities with sufficient density to support high-service standards

of public transport (frequency, span of services and better stop and road space priority

infrastructure standards).

Providing employment opportunities within the precinct, to discourage external trips

during peak periods of road network operations.

Supporting “car-lite” and “car-free” developments, tied with time controlled and permit

parking and untying car parking supply from residential and commercial development

where active and public transport services and infrastructure are good.

Provide direct and separated walking and bicycle riding routes to public facilities, public

transport nodes and stations and shopping areas.


5. Summary and Conclusion

The summary and conclusions to the Lowes Creek Maryland Precinct Traffic and Transport

Assessment are described below.

5.1 Introduction

GHD has been commissioned to undertake a Traffic Assessment for the Lowes Creek Maryland

Precinct.

Macarthur Developments entered into a Voluntary Planning Agreement (VPA – 1) with the

Minister for Planning and Environment on 25 September 2015. The VPA requires planning to be

undertaken for two areas:

1. Preparation of a context plan for the broader LCM and South Creek West land release

area.

2. Preparation of an Indicative Layout Plan for LCM Precinct to deliver housing and service

infrastructure necessary to accelerate the Precinct.

5.2 Future Transport

The Northern Road is currently being upgraded by RMS from two lanes to a four lane divided

road, with the provision of a median allowing for 6 lanes to be provided in the future. The

upgrade includes the provision of 4 m shoulders, which if required at a later date can be

converted into bus lanes.

The Northern Road upgrade includes the provision of bus lanes in either direction. Currently, no

bus services operate on The Northern Road. However, as the SWGA is developed, increased

population densities may encourage the introduction of new bus routes in the region. Sydney’s

Bus Future (2013) specifies that rapid service routes will be provided for Western Sydney.

5.3 Proposed Land Uses

5.3.1 Residential

It is proposed to provide a variety of different dwelling types within the LCM Precinct, as follows:

A relatively small number of apartment buildings of up to five stories (high density) with

approximately 40 – 60 dwellings per hectare.

Medium density with approximately 25 – 35 dwellings per hectare.

Low density residential dwelling with approximately 15 – 25 dwellings per hectare.


LCM Precinct could accommodate approximately 7,060 dwellings

The Context Plan areas could accommodate 9,950 dwellings.


5.3.2 Retail and Commercial Uses

The Draft Lowes Creek Maryland Part Precincts Rezoning Economic (Retail and Employment)

Analysis 2016 provides a preliminary estimate of retail/commercial land uses that are proposed

to be developed within the Context Plan

Within the LCM Precinct, the following retail/commercial facilities are proposed:

A “local centre” with a concentration of retail and commercial facilities. The local centre is

expected to be anchored by a supermarket and includes a number of speciality stores

and discount department stores.

A “mixed use precinct” adjacent to the town centre - primarily expected to serve residents

of the high density developments.

A small “convenience centre” located at the north east corner of the subject site

The following has been assumed with respect to the timing of the development of the retail

facilities:

Local Centre:

– In Stage 1 (2018 to 2021), 70 percent of the supermarket and a third of the speciality

retail/commercial will be developed

– In Stage 2 (2022 to 2026), the remaining 30 percent of the supermarket, two-thirds of

the speciality retail/commercial and the discount department store will be developed.

Mixed use development will be developed in Stage 3 (2027 to 2031).

Convenience centre will be developed in Stage 4 (2032 to 2036).

Maryland South Village will be developed in Stage 3 (2027 to 2031).

Bringelly Village will be developed in Stage 4 (2032 to 2036).

Highway services/employment area 50 percent will be developed in Stage 3 (2027 to

2031) and 50 percent in Stage 4 (2032 to 2036).

5.3.3 Recreational and Educational Uses

Recreational facilities including parks, sports ovals and playing fields will be provided to serve

the residents of the LCM Precinct. The sports/ovals and playing fields are proposed to be

concentrated to the north of the local centre

The proposed development will include the following educational facilities:

1 primary schools and 1 high school within the LCM Precinct

An additional 2 primary schools and 1 high school within the remaining Context Plan

area.

Demand for educational facilities will increase as the Context Plan area is developed as the

residential population grows. Accordingly, the following, has been assumed with respect to the

timing of the development of the educational facilities:

A primary school and high school will be constructed within the LCM Precinct in Stage 1

(2017 to 2021).

Within the southern area, a primary school will be constructed in Stage 3 (2027 to 2031)

and a high school in Stage 4 (2032 to 2036).

Within the northern area, a primary school will be constructed in Stage 3 (2027 to 2031).


5.4 Road Network and Access

The proposed road structure/hierarchy for the Context Plan is as follows:

A north-south sub-arterial road that intersects Greendale Road to the north and Oran

Park Town Centre to the south.

Two east-west sub-arterial roads that connect the north-south road with The Northern

Road.

A collector road network that distributes local traffic throughout the subject site that

provides access to residential lots and directs vehicles to sub-arterial roads at key

intersections on The Northern Road.

Local roads to provide access to residential dwellings

A shared path network to encourage active transport within the subject site and provide

connectivity to external pedestrian

5.4.1 Trip Generation Assessment

A detailed trip generation assessment indicates that:

The LCM Precinct is expected to generate approximately 6,104 – 7,034 trips during peak

periods of road network activity.

The Context Plan areas are expected to generate approximately 7,974– 7,857 trips

during peak periods of road network activity.

5.5 Modelling Methodology

5.5.1 Introduction

In accordance with instructions from RMS a three-tiered modelling process has been adopted

for the LCM Precinct Traffic Study, as follows:

Tier 1 – Strategic modelling using the EMME model provided by RMS.

Tier 2 – Mesoscopic modelling using AIMSUN to take into account the consideration of

time dynamics of the traffic demand.

Tier 3 – SIDRA intersection modelling using the traffic volumes identified in the previous

modelling processes, accounting for the existing/proposed infrastructure on the adjoining

road network.

5.5.2 Strategic Modelling

The following conclusions are drawn from the strategic modelling outputs:

Prior to 2026 (see Figure 4-1), no links have V/C ratio greater than 80 percent. In general

terms, this means congestion on the network is minimal.

In 2026 (see Figure 4-2), during both the AM and PM peaks the V/C ratio exceeds 80

percent along The Northern Road between the northernmost access road to the Lowes

Creek Maryland Precinct and Bringelly Road.

By 2031 (see Figure 4-3), additional north / south road linkages between LCM Precinct

and the adjacent context areas have been included. These alleviate congestion along

The Northern Road (by providing alternative routes).


By 2036 (see Figure 4-4), V/C ratios of greater than 100 percent are shown over multiple

sections along The Northern Road particularly in proximity to Bringelly Road intersection

during both the AM and PM peak periods.

In 2041 (see Figure 4-5):

– Within the LCMs Precinct, all links are shown to have V/C ratios lower than 80

percent.

– Within the larger Context Plan area, only one link (located in the southern area) has a

V/C ratio that exceeds 100 percent.

– Nearly the entirety of The Northern Road (northbound) has a V/C ratio that exceeds

80 percent.

– Similar to the observations for 2036, all approaches at The Northern Road at the

Bringelly Road intersection have V/C ratios that exceed 100 percent.

The Northern Road should be widened to three lanes in either direction between 2031

and 2036, to facilitate capacity that can accommodate the expected travel demand.


5.5.3 Mesoscopic Modelling

In summary, the following conclusions are drawn from the mesoscopic modelling stage:


– The V/C ratios on the internal road network are generally less than 25 percent.


– The V/C ratios within the LCM Precinct is generally less than 50 percent, while the V/C

ratios along The Northern Road are approaching 75 percent.


– The V/C ratios on the internal road network is generally in the 50 percent range, which

suggests that the internal road network and hierarchy is sufficient to cater to the

expected trip generation.

– V/C ratios exceed 75 percent in the northbound direction along nearly all sections of

The Northern Road during the AM peak hour. This result indicates that the two lanes

per direction along The Northern Road should be widened to three lanes in each

direction after 2031.

5.5.4 SIDRA Modelling

In summary:

The signalised intersections of interest are expected to predominantly operate with a

good LoS in the 2021 and 2026 horizon years.

All the internal signalised intersection are expected to operate with a good LoS up to and

including the 2031 horizon year.

For Scenario A, even with the additional capacity associated with three travel lanes in

either direction on The Northern Road, intersections 2 and 3 are expected to operate with

a poor LoS by 2031.

The delays at intersection on The Northern Road with poor LOS (in Scenario A) are



Accordingly, left turn continuous lanes from the approaches onto The Northern Road


requirement to upgrade The Northern Road to three lanes in either direction.

All the internal roundabouts are expected to operate with a good LOS up to 2031.

5.6 Road Network and Access

5.6.1 Proposed Road Network

In summary

LCM Precinct internal road hierarchy and cross-sections should align with the Road

Network Master Plan indicated in Figure 4-29.

High traffic forecast along The Northern Road in excess of 2,500 vehicles per direction

per hour by 2031 place pressure on maintaining its function as a mobility corridor and

providing access to/from the side roads at acceptable levels of service.


5.6.2 Travel Demand Management

In accordance with the projected levels of growth within the Context Plan area and the wider

SWGA, it is expected that increased traffic volumes will increase delays at key intersections,

particularly on The Northern Road.

Travel demand management (TDM) is a term for strategies that encourage a shift from single

occupant private vehicles trips. TDM improve transport efficiencies while reducing the negative

impacts associated with the use of private motor vehicles. Given the projected congestion at key

intersections on The Northern Road (particularly during peak periods of road network activity),

the implementation of TDM has the potential to provide significant utility to residents and visitors

to the LCM Precinct. TDMs also provide the utility to enhance the operation of the precinct’s

internal road

In accordance with the expected peak hour congestion on The Northern Road and to enhance

the operation of the LCM Precinct’s internal road network, TDMs should be applied the precinct

to discourage single occupancy private vehicle trips,

GHD | - Lowes Creek Maryland Part Precinct Rezoning Proposal, 21/25621

Appendices


Appendix A – RMS Modelling Method


Appendix B – Proposed Intersection Upgrades on The Northern Road


Appendix C – Traffic Survey Outputs


Appendix D – EMME Model Outputs


Appendix E – AIMSUN Calibration and Validation Report

Appendix F – Strategic Modelling Details (EMME to AIMSUN)

Appendix G – AIMSUN Delay Calculations

Appendix H – SIDRA Network Layouts

Appendix I – SIDRA Network Outputs

GHD

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© GHD 2018

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Document Status

Revision Author Reviewer Approved for Issue

Name Signature Name Signature Date

A Stefan Ellis

Mark Lucas On file Bert Prinsloo On file 08/08/18

B Stfan Ellis Mark Lucas On file Bert Prinsloo On file 27/09/18

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