Low-Emissions Development in Mexico

MLED Program October 2012

Contents

•  Overview •  MLED and the LEDS development process •  Current actions •  INE/MLED climate economics modeling efforts

Steps towards Low Emissions Development

▪  Inclusion of climate change and low emissions development elements in the National Development Plan 2007-2012

▪  Mexico’s National Climate Change Strategy (ENCC, 2007)

▪  Special Climate Change Programme (PECC, 2009)

▪  Four National Communications to the UNFCCC. Fifth Communication in progress

▪  Publication and regular updates of the National Inventory on Greenhouse Gas Emissions (INEGEI)

▪  Several studies by the Mexican Government and other agencies to assess mitigation potential, costs and implementation roadmaps.

▪  GHG emissions reduction target announced in COP15 at Copenhagen and ratifed in COP16 at Cancun

▪  Climate Change Law (2012)

*Source: http://en.openei.org/wiki/Gateway:Low_Emission_Development_Strategies 8

Organizational Agenda

•  Support for the coordination of the LEDS development process to INE and the president’s office

•  Strategy to strengthen and validate the process of LEDS development

•  Registry of the LEDS development process

LEDS development process

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Technical Economic Agenda

•  Analytical matrixes of progress regarding the project’s required information (i.e. spatial, sector, etc.)

•  Overview of the mitigation measures identified in previous studies by INE [and other studies] (ongoing)

Institutional Agenda

•  Analysis of legal, regulatory and institutional framework and the requirements for compliance of the strategy

•  Analysis of public policy  instruments

•  Create opportunities and events to involve all the process stakeholders

LEDS development process

(2/3)

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Technical Economic Agenda •  Review of emissions baseline and future emissions scenarios •  Updating and refining national portfolio of actions to reduce emissions

(difference between project portfolio and NAMAs) •  Cost-benefit analysis of measures being studied (investment-savings

relation) •  Update the abatement cost curve for Mexico (updated information and

proprietary methodology to enable regular updates) •  Mitigation abatement scenario projections •  Capacity building on economic modeling •  Economic analysis of the LEDS •  Co-benefits analysis on health, life quality, biodiversity, ecosystems

conservation, air quality, etc, derived from the implementation of the strategy

LEDS development process

Current actions by MLED Program on Climate Economics •  Review and update of GHG emissions baseline •  Update and improvement of abatement projects

portfolio •  Building abatement scenarios and abatement cost-

curves •  Assessment of economic impacts of the LEDS

–  Sector models (transport, industry, forestry/agriculture, energy)

–  Regional models –  Economy-wide models (EC-LEDS)

Short term Cooperation (2011-2012) •  Assessment of LEDS economic impacts

through any tools available (economy wide models, sectorial models, other models and tools suitable for the task.

•  Establish a long term strategy and plan

Long term Cooperation (2011-2013) •  Capacity building on climate

economics modeling for INE •  Help develop and own sectorial

models and economy wide models according to INE’s needs and priorities

Specific actions planned for 2012-2013 •  Current modeling capacities assessment •  Development of sectorial models for selected sectors like industry, transport,

forestry/agriculture and energy •  Technical support to explore and develop economy-wide analysis tools like CGE or

IA models. •  Help INE develop a set of analytical tools to successfully provide the LEDS a

strong and consistent economic analysis. •  Support on strategic planning to help INE strengthen the capacity for climate

economics modeling in the long term.