low carbon society in contrast to a society with mass...

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Low carbon society in contrast to a society with mass consumption of energy and resources

(Updated version)

Yuichi MoriguchiTeam Leader, Transport Subproject, JLCS2050

Director, Research Centre for Material Cycles and Waste Management, NIES

Visiting Professor, Graduate School of Frontier Sciences, The University of TokyoChair, OECD/EPOC/WG on Environmental Information and Outlooks

Inaugural member, International Panel for Sustainable Resource Management

The 3rd Workshop of Japan-UK Joint Research Project"Roadmap to Low-Carbon World''

13th-15th February, 2008,Hotel Metropolitan Edmont, Iidabashi, Tokyo

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Contents

1. Decoupling and Recoupling of GDP and CO2

2. Analyzing Carbon-footprint of household consumption

3. Behavior in transport activities: Cars vs. Public transits

4. Purchasing decision of consumer durables: cost payback time vs. CO2 payback time

5. Win-win strategy between LCS and SMCS (Sound Material-Cycle Society)

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Other0%

Waste3%

EnergyIndustries

32%

IndustrialProcesses

4%

ManufacturingIndustries andConstruction

29%

Transport19%

Commercial &Others

8%

Residential5%

Total CO2 emissions2005

Railway

Maritime

Aviation

Motorvehicle

Share of CO2 emissions by sector in Japan

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Trends of GDP and CO2 emissions by sector

0

50

100

150

200

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

GDP

Total

Energy Industory

Industr ial

Commercial & Residential

Transport

GDP

Em

iss

ion

In

de

x d

en

om

ina

ted

by

19

73

le

ve

lTrends of GDP and CO2 emissions by sector

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Contents






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Japanese CO2 emissions structure from the viewpoint of final demand (1975-2000) by I-O analysis

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

CO

2 em

issi

ons

(Mt-C

O2/y

)

Other exports

Electric Machinery

Transport machinery

Transport

Iron&Steel

Stock change

Other private capital

Machinery

Construction

Other public capital

Construction

Other government consumption

Education, medical & welfare service

Government Service

Other household expenditure

Transport

Retail trade

Education, medical & welfare service

Service

Food

Electricity consumption

Fuel consumption

Non Household Expenditure

Change of the sector classification

House.Cons.

Gov.Cons.

FixedCap.(pri.)

Exports

(pub.)

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0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

0 100 200 300 400 500 600Annual average expenditure at a household in Japan (10000 yen/year)

CO

2 em

issi

ons

per u

nit e

xpen

ditu

re (k

g-C

O2/1

0000

yen

)

<Note> 1. Y-axis value is based on the consumers' price basis. 2. The value includes emissions relating to imports, assuming they have the same emissions as the domestic products. 3. The value includes not only emissions directly from a household but also ones for supplying goods and services that the household purchases.

Foods

Fablic prod.

Electrical machinery

Transportation machinery

Electricity

Mains gas

Gasoline

Petroleum and coal products (exc. gasoline)

Transportation

Water and sewerage

Comunication and broadcast

Education, medical care and welfare

Services Others

K. Nansai and Y. Moriguchi (2007), NIES, Japan

Relationship between CO2 intensities and expenditures of households in Japan

2.6%0.9%1.2%

3.4%

3.2%3.4%2.8%

6.4%

9.7%14.1%

15.1%

13.2%11.9%

12.0%

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Size of passenger cars had been getting larger and caused larger CO2 emissions since tax reform in 1989

Tax system change:abolition of the commodity taxadoption of the consumption tax

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Light passenger cars

Small passenger cars

Regular size passenger

Number of car possesions (Million)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1990 1995 2000

Gasoline lightpassenger cars

Gasoline -2,000cc

Diesel & rotaryengine etc.

Gasoline 2,001cc-

CO2 emission[Mt-CO2]

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Combination of countermeasures which reduce 20% each could account for over 70% reduction as total

Demand management e.g. by information-

communication technology[transport-service per capita]

Improve accessibility[passenger-km or ton-km

per transport-service]

Modal shift to reduce CO2 EF per passenger-km or ton-km

Improve load factor[vehicle-km per Pkm(Tkm)]

Improve fuel economy[Fuel consumption per vehicle-km]

Introduce low carbon energy[CO2 emission factor per fuel

consumption]

∑ ⎟⎟⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛××××=

Mode FuelEF

VkmFuel

TkmPkmVkm

TransServTkmkmP

capitaTransServ

capita22 CO

)()(CO

(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)x(1-0.2)=0.26

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0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000

Estimated regional automotive CO2 emissions

Each Area is categorized in1. Major cities2. Cities with a pop of 0.5 million and above3. Cities with a pop of 0.3 and above4. Cities with a pop of 0.1 and above5. Cities with a pop less than 0.1 million6. Counties

Accumulated population [million]CO2 per capita

[t/year]

Tokyo Met.

Osaka Met.

Nagoya Met.

Other Areas

Passenger car emissions (t-CO2/capita)

Freight vehicles

Passenger cars

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Picture of EST1 (High tech.)

Popularization of FCEVs

Construction of H2Supplying Station

Utilization of Biomass Energy

Wind-generated Electricity

More Energy Efficient Mode

Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003)Example of vision: prepared for OECD/EST in Nagoya(2003)

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Picture of EST2 (Mobility change)

Higher Loading Rate

Increase in Car Occupancy

Utilization of Telecommunication

Tools

Shifting to Railways

Shifting to Bicycle and Walking


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Picture of EST3 (Combination)

Popularization of FCEVs

More Energy Efficient Mode

Utilization of Biomass Energy

Utilization of Telecommunication

Tools

Shifting to Bicycle and Walking

Shifting to Railways

Wind-generated Electricity


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Purchasing decision of consumer durables

• Consumer durables such as cars, air conditioners, refrigerators,TV’s and other electric equipment have significant impact on household energy consumption.

• Replacement to up-to-date efficient models is often encouraged, but we have to keep in mind that shorter lifetime of durables lead to excessive consumption of material resources and indirect energy consumption and CO2 emissions.

• Payback time in terms of cost, energy, and CO2 should be carefully examined for typical consumer durables.

• Reliable information with regard to cost payback time and CO2payback time of expensive mitigating technologies such as photovoltaic should be disseminated to consumers to guide their investment decision.

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50

75

100

125

150

175

200

0 200 400 600 800

Addit ional init ial investment in 1,000JPY

3 years

5 years

7 years

10 yearsGasoline p

rice（JP

Y/l）

(10,000km/year, 11.7km/l for conventional 20.3km/l for HEV)

Cost payback time of Hybrid Vehicle

1 Euro / l

2000 Euros

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Massive flow of materials

Resources Wastes

Consumer products

Infrastructure

as source of resources

as sink of residualsThe global environment is finite

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Transition of socio-economic structure towards more sustainable consumption and production

One-way

Recycling-basedCycle-oriented

Sound material-cycle

循環型社会“Junkan”

大量生産・大量消費・大量廃棄型社会

Mass-production, mass-consumption, mass-disposal society

Sound material cycle society (SMCS)

Saving resources

Reducing burdens

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Types of possible behavioral changes

• Day-to-day energy saving actions• Purchasing choice of daily necessaries• Transport modal choice• Purchasing choice of consumer durables to

minimize lifecycle carbon emissions• Residence and workplace choices

Direct, Short term, Individual

Indirect, Long term, Societal

+ Cultural aspect: e.g. Japanese spirit of “Mottainai”

“Don’t waste what is valuable.”

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