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Low-Carbon Options in China
Jiang KejunEnergy System Analysis and Market Analysis Division
Energy Research Institute, China
EMF 22, Tsukuba, Dec 12-14, 2006
optionsoutlook
Energy planningtarget
Emission Scenarios
2010 2030 2050
Framework of Integrated Policy Model for China (IPAC)
ERI, ChinaERI, China
IPAC-SGM
IPAC-AIM/tech
IPAC-Emission
IPAC/Tech(Power/Transport)IPAC/SE, IPAC/EAlarm
IPAC-TIMER
IPAC/AIM-Local
Energy demand and supplyPrice/investmentEconomic impactMedium/long-term analysis
Region analysisMedium/short analysisEnergy demand and supplyTechnology policy
Medium/short term analysisTechnology assessmentDetailed technology flow
IPAC-AIM/MATERIAL
Energy demand and supplFull range emissionPrice, resource, technologMedium-long term analysisEconomic impact
Environment industryPollutant emissionMedium/long-term analys
Technology developmentEnvironment impactTechnology policy
AIM-air IPAC-health
Energy demand and supplyPrice/investmentMedium/long-term analysis
Short term forecast/ energy early warning
Climate Model
China: Energy demand and CO2 emission scenarios
Baseline scenario Policy and technology scenarioEnergy IntensiveProducts
Annual average energy savingrate 2.7%
Annual average energy saving rate3.6%
Building Annual average energy savingrate 1.9%
Annual average energy saving rate3.0%
Transport Annual average energy savingrate 1.5%
Annual average energy saving rate2.8%
Biomass Annual average reduction rateof cost by 3.7%
Annual average reduction rate ofcost by 5.9%
Hydro 65% of technical potential by2050
80% of technical potential by 2050
Solar/wind 0.7yuan/kWh by 2050 0.5Yuan/kWh by 2050Coal fired powerplants
4% by 2050 15% by 2050
Industry 1% by 2050 5% by 2050Power generation 7% by 2050 35% by 2050Industry 5% by 2050 15% by 2050Power generation Distributed power generation
system by 3% in 2050Distributed power generationsystem by 8% in 2050
Transport Fuel cell vehicle 5% Fuel cell vehicle 15%Transport Vehicle Hybrid vehicle diffusion start
from 2010, 10% by 2030Hybrid vehicle diffusion start from2010, 70% by 2040
Energy tax No 50yuan/tce in 2010, 200yuan/tce in2050
Subsidy No Power from renewable energy0.3yuan/kWh
Investment Energytechnology R&D
Annual average growth rate 4% Annual average growth rate 6.2%
Enhanced EnergySaving
Renewable energy
Carbon Capture andSequestration
Clean coal technology
Policies
Hydrogen
Pr i mar y energy de mand in China, 2050
01000200030004000500060007000
2000 BAU 2050 Tech and Pol i cy2050
(Mtc
e)
Coal Oi l Gas Nucl ear Renewabl es
1391
6405
4697
Final energy demand in China,20 50
0100020003000400050006000
2000 BAU 2050 Tec h and Pol i cy2050
(Mtc
e)
Coal Oi l Gas El ec t r i c i t y
1078
5087
3825
Energy Use in Power Generation in China,2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2000 BAU 2050 Tech and Policy2050
(Mtce)
Coal Gas Hydro Nuclear Oil Other renewables
Final energy use by sector
0100020003000400050006000
2000 BAU 2050 Tec h and Pol i cy2050
(Mtc
e)
Bui l di ng Tr anspor t I ndust r y
1078
5087
3825
Primary Energy Demand in China, Policy Scenario
0500
100015002000250030003500
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
Mto
e
RenewablesNuclearGasOilCoal
GDP energy intensity in China, 2000-2050
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050(tce/10000 yuan RMB)
Energy intensity/GDP(BAU)
Energy intensity/GDP (TAP)
Energy demand will be reduced 27% (1708Mtce) in 2050 by technology and policy scenario compared with baseline scenario in China.
CO2 Emission in China,2050
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
(Mt-C)
CO2 emission(BAU) CO2 emission(TAP)CO2 emission will be reduced 39% (1263Mt-C)in 2050 by technology and policy scenario compared with baseline scenarioin China
39%
CO2 Emission from Energy Activities in China
0.00.20.40.60.81.01.21.41.61.82.0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
Gt-C LCS Scenario
Sector Technologies Steel Industry Large size equipment (Coke Oven, Blast furnace, Basic oxygen
furnace ,etc.), Equipment of coke dry quenching, Continuous casting machine, TRT Continuous rolling machine, Equipment of coke oven gas, OH gas and BOF gas recovery , DC-electric arc furnace
Chemical Industry Large size equipment for Chemical Production, Waste Heat Recover System, Ion membrane technology, Existing Technology Improving
Paper Making Co-generation System, facilities of residue heat utilization, Black liquor recovery system, Continuous distillation system
Textile Co-generation System, Shuttleless loom, High Speed Printing and Dyeing
Non-ferrous metal Reverberator furnace, Waste Heat Recover System, QSL for lead and zinc production
Building Materials dry process rotary kiln with pre-calciner, Electric power generator with residue heat, Colburn process, Hoffman kiln, Tunnel kiln
Machinery High speed cutting, Electric-hydraulic hammer, Heat Preservation Furnace
Residential Cooking by gas, Centralized Space Heating System, Energy Saving Electric Appliance, High Efficient Lighting
Service Centralized Space Heating System, Centralized Cooling Heating System, Co-generation System, Energy Saving Electric Appliance, High Efficient Lighting
Transport Diesel truck, Low Energy Use Car, Electric Car, Natural Gas Car, Electric Railway Locomotives
Common Use Technology
High Efficiency Boiler, FCB Technology, High Efficiency Electric Motor Speed Adjustable Motor, Centrifugal Electric Fun, Energy Saving Lighting
Identify efficiency promised technologies: fully used by 2020
Mode Technology Mode TechnologyAir, Freight Airplane, freight Bus Gasoline busLarge Truck Conventional large truck (Gasoline) Improved gasoline bus
New large truck (Gasoline) Diesel busConventional large truck (Diesel) Improved diesel busNew large truck (Diesel) Hybrid BusHybrid Truck, large CNG.Bus
Small Truck Conventional small truck LPG.BusNew small truck MRT MRTSmall Truck Diesel Car Electric carHybrid Truck, small SANATA-Normal Car, Gaso
Railway, Freight Conventional diesel locomotive Mini-CarNew diesel locomotive High Fuel Economy CarConventional electric locomotive Hybrid CarNew electric locomotive Fuel Cell carSteam locomotive Diesel Car
Waterway Conventional coastal ship New Diesel CarNew coastal ship Railway, Passenger Conventional diesel locomoConventional ocean ship New diesel locomotiveNew ocean ship Conventional electric locomConventional river ship New electric locomotiveNew river ship Steam locomotiveTransportation Others Waterway, passenger Conventional river ship
Air, Passenger Airplane, Passenger New river ship
Technologies use in IPAC-AIM/Technology modelfor transport analysis
Mode Policy Options
Air New Boing Airplane, AirBus380
Railway Efficiency improvement 8% forelectric and diesel locomotive
Waterway15% efficiency improvementby using larger tank andengine
Freight Large Truck Advanced diesel truck, morethen 50%Hybrid Truck, 20%
Freight Small Truck Hybrid Truck, 50%New Diesel Truck, 40%
Bus Hybrid Bus, 70%Car Efficient diesel car, 30%
Hybrid car 50%Biomass Fule Ethonal 30% of gasoline use
BioDiesel 15%Public Transport Take 15% more from car useBicycle 10% more
Fuel taxStart from 2010, similar rateby 2020 with that in Japan andEurope
Policy Options for alternative transport scenario
Transport Energy Deamnd, PolicyScenario
0100200300400500
2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Mto
eFuel Oil-WaterwayDiesel-WaterwayKoreseneElectricityDiesel-RailwayBio-DieselEthrnalDiesel-RoadGasoline
Transport Energy Deamnd, BaselineScenario
0100200300400500
2000 2010 2020 2030
Year
Mto
e
Fuel Oil-WaterwayDiesel-WaterwayKoreseneElectricityDiesel-RailwayBio-DieselEthrnalDiesel-RoadGasoline
Biogas Power GenerationBiogas power generation from husbanduryBiomass Power GenerationOffshore wind turbineNuclear Power PlantBiomass Power PlantSuper Critical UnitCritical UnitCoal CogenerationN.Gas Co-generationCoal Power PlantGas Power PlantIGCCNGCCOil Power PlantHydro Power PlantWind Power
Technology Used in Power Generation
Technology options for alternative scenario
Bi ogas Power Generat i on 10GW by 2020Bi ogas power generat i on f r om hu1GW by 2020Bi omass Power Generat i on 2GW by 2020Of f shore wi nd t urbi ne 10GW by 2030Nucl ear Power Pl ant 40GW by 2020IGCC 100GW by 2030NGCC 100GW by 2030Inl and Wi nd Power 25GW by 2020
Power Generation Output in China, Baseline Scenario
010002000300040005000600070008000
2000 2010 2020 2030Year
TWh
BiowindNuclearHydroN.GasOilCoal
Power Generation Output in China, Policy Scenario
010002000300040005000600070008000
2000 2010 2020 2030Year
TWh
BiowindNuclearHydroN.GasOilCoal
Fossil Fuel Use in Power Sector, baseline scenario
0200400600800
100012001400
2000 2010 2020 2030Year
Mtc
e N.GasOilCoal
Fossil Fuel Use in Power Sector
0200400600800
100012001400
2000 2010 2020 2030Year
Mtc
e N.GasOilCoal
Clean Coal Technology: Global Progress
a In 2000, Version 21 program in United StatesaEarly Entrance Co-production Plant(EECP), 2007aPilot phase plants on LPMEOH and LPDME, which are
the technologies to produce methanol, Dimethyl Ether, and co-generation. These plants were constructed in 1997
aCoal integrated generation system by Some famous international companies including BP, GE, Air Products and Chemicals, Shell
a Investment for clean coal technology R&D is decreasing in Europe due to less use of coal, even in United States
Clean Coal Technology: Progress in China
aCoal washing: in 2003, coal washing rate is only 24%, remain very low washing rate
aCoal-Water mixture: There are huge development of coal-water mixture in China. In 1999 the production capacity was less than 900 thousand ton. The production capacity increased to be nearly 7 million ton in 2003
a Industry briquette: because of high price, progress of industry briquette is slow. Recently air pollution issues raised the possibility to use more industry briquette
aUltra-super critical unit: 1GW unit is under construction in Yuantian Power Plant, which started construction in 2004 and will be in operation in 2007. This is one component of National 863 Project
Clean Coal Technology: Progress in China(conti.)
a IGCC: Project feasibility study was done for Beijing IGCC project and Yantai IGCC project during 1995 to 2000. And now four IGCC project is planned and will start construction soon.
aUnderground coal gasification: Shan Dong Lineng Group made plan for a pilot phase project on underground coal gasification. This project includes four gasification furnace with total capacity 3million m3 per day
aPoly-Generation: in 973 Program, a preliminary analysis was conducted. 4 to 5 projects are under construction and will start production in 2007 to 2009
Clean Coal Technology: Progress in China(conti.)
a Coal Liquefaction: In 2002, Shenhua Direct Coal Liquefaction project is under construction. This project is expected to startproduction in 2007. All together there are 29 projects under planning with total capacity 40 to 50 million ton oil.
a Desulphurization: with recent rapid increase of coal fired powerplants, newly construct coal fired power plant with sulphur content higher than 1% equipped with desulphurization technology. And due to air pollution in cities, some existing coal fired power plants near cities also started to equip with desulphurization equipments
a Low Nox Combustion technology: still in research process. One pilot project is under construction. As research project, more then ten units equipped with low NOx combustor
• Increase energy security: self-supply of energy 93% in 2005. In 2030, self supply will be 76% in 2030 in baseline scenario, 77% in policy scenario, with smaller import.
• Fundamental industry in China with large employment: 7.6 million employees in 2004, 5.8million in 2030. Important thing is this is good for low income people to fine opportunity
• Extend economy activities. Taking lead for clean coal technology in the world will bring economy benefit. Three power equipment companies in China is becoming among top manufactures in the world in 2005(largest power capacity suppliers for coal fired power plants), and started to export advanced coal fired power plants.
Profit to develop clean coal technologies
• Very good environment effects. SO2, NOx, PM emission, water pollution will be significantly reduced by using clean coal technologies, also very important for GHG emission reduction. Clean coal technology development will be crucial for government environment target in 11th Five Year Plan
• Contribution to global climate change collaboration. Asia-Pacific Partnership on Clean Development and Climate, China-EU Partnership on Climate Change have component of clean coal technology collaboration
Profit to develop clean coal technologies(Conti.)
Technology is moving fast: coal fired power plants
• Super-Critical Generator is major power generation technology in China for new power plants
• There are more than 10 ultra-super critical units under construction
• Four IGCC under planning and start construction next year
Energy Intensity in 2010, 9.5% growth policy scenario
0.01230.0099
0
0.002
0.004
0.006
0.008
0.01
0.012
0.014
2005 2010Year
21% decrease
Government target: 20% energy intensity decrease in 2010 compared with 2005
Primary Energy Demand, 9.5% Grwoth Policy Scenario
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
2005 2010Year
Mtc
e
BioDieselEthonalBiomassWindNuclearHydroN.GasOilCoal
Ener gy Savi ng by Sect or , 9. 5% Pol i cy Scenar i o
- 100
1020304050607080
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• There are already a large amount of new technologies available to be implemented in China. Policies such as fiscal polices including energy tax should be adopted at early time
• New advanced technologies is crucial for future low carbon society, such as advanced power generation system, transport system, higher efficiency electric appliance, building
• More investment is urgently needed now for technology R&D. International collaboration is expected to work on this
• Investment on new technology will benefit on economy development
• Chinese government is making full effort to reduce energy demand increase in China as national strategy. If the strategy could be implemented, there will be strong support for low carbon society in 2050
Conclusion
• Energy tax, to be implemented at early time, such as 2010• Reduce space heating payment for energy efficient building• Pay-back price: grid purchase electricity from renewable in
the price grid sale to end-users• Much more emphasizing on new technology development
Policies recommended to government beside policy planning