lukoillong-term strategy. 7 increasing focus on exports 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% lukoil yukos...
TRANSCRIPT
1
LUKOIL: EFFICIENT GROWTH
June 24, 2002
2
LUKOIL Comparison on Reserves and Production
9,257
10,097
10,978
12,018
16,337
16,976
20,004
16,581
21,561
1,369
1,636
2,197
2,424
2,754
3,419
3,920
4,392
1,661
2001 Reserves (mln boe) 2001 Production (thousand boe/d)
3
LUKOIL Production Growth
Annual production in 1999 - 2001
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
1999 2000 2001
Natural Gas
International
Timan-Pechora
Volga-Urals
Western Siberia
1,597 1,641 1,661
Average annual growth projections:
• 3 - 5% to 2005
•10% between 2005 and 2010
Mmboe/d
4
LUKOIL Refining and Marketing Growth
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1999 2000 2001
mbbls/d
Third partyInternationalDomestic
745
904
989
Oil refining
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
1999 2000 2001
stations
International
Domestic
1024
3544
2555
Gasoline stations
Since 1999: Oil refining growth – 30%Gasoline stations added – 2.5 thousand
5
Restructuring Aims to Increase Shareholder Value
• The Company’s stocks trades at a significant discount to other emerging market companies
• The discount to international majors is at about 60% on P/E
• LUKOIL management is very attentive to those aspects of the Company’s performance that concern investors
• LUKOIL’s strengths have not been properly communicated to the market and are not fully reflected by it
• LUKOIL is developing and implementing measures to raise the efficiency of operations
Financial market performance* as of June 20, 2002
Share price Market cap P/ECompany USD USD MM 2002E 2003E 2004E
Russian OilsLUKOIL 16.25 13,825 6.3x 6.7x 7.0xYUKOS 9.06 20,262 6.3x 7.6x 8.5xSurgutneftegas 0.37 13,294 6.0x 7.3x 7.3xSibneft 1.59 7,532 6.7x 8.6x 7.0xAverage for Russian oil & gas majors** 7.8x 7.8x 7.5LUKOIL Discount to Russian Majors -20% -14% -6%%
Average for Emerging Markets Companies*** 8.1x 7.6x 12.0xLUKOIL Discount to Emerging Market peers -22% -12% -42%
Average for International Supermajors**** 19.2x 17.0x 16.3xLUKOIL Discount to International Supermajors -67% -61% -57%
LUKOIL management presents some of the Company’s strategic measures to raise efficiency.Management is committed to keeping investors informed about further steps in this direction.
LUKOIL management presents some of the Company’s strategic measures to raise efficiency.Management is committed to keeping investors informed about further steps in this direction.
*Source: IBES, Morgan Stanley estimates for LUKOIL and Petrobras. ** Including: LUKOIL, Yukos, Gazprom, Sibneft, Surgutneftegas;*** Including: Petrobras, Petrochina, CNOOC; **** Including: ExxonMobil, Royal Dutch Shell, BP Amoco
6
Short-Term (2002-2003) Restructuring Program
SHORT-TERMRESTRUCTURING
(2002-03)• Revenue Enhancement
• Increase oil and oil products exports
• Accelerate development of new fields
• Costs reduction
• Reduce the number of low-margin wells
• Reduce headcount
• Wider application of enhanced oil recovery technologies.
•Corporate structure
• Consolidate subsidiaries
• Service companies divestment
• Development of new provinces
• Gas program
• International expansion
LONG-TERMSTRATEGY
7
Increasing Focus on Exports
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
LUKOIL Yukos SurgutNG
Sha
re o
f oil
prod
uctio
noil product exports*oil exports*
Significantly higher focus on domestic sales vs. peers had negative impact on our financial performance in 2001
Significantly higher focus on domestic sales vs. peers had negative impact on our financial performance in 2001
* % of total oil productionSources: LUKOIL – company data for 9M01, Yukos – Company data (9M01 financials), SurgutNG – RusEnergy
8
Product Exports Growth
1.4 1.9 2.41.8
2.53.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Q1 2001 Q2 2001 Q3 2001 Q4 2001 Q1 2002 Q2 2002E
mln
.t
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Exports except NIS* Exports in NISDomestic supplies Share of exports in productionSource: LUKOIL
* NIS – Newly Independent States
• Factors of product exports increase
• Increased processingon upgraded refineries
• Limited domestic demand
• LUKOIL has a significant potential of exports increase
• In 2001 LUKOIL exported 31% of products – ¾ out of country average level
9
Domestic Refined Products Prices Dynamics
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
01.01 04.01 07.01 10.01 01.02 04.02
Low octane gasoline Diesel
High octane gasoline Fuel oil
As prices increase, domestic and export sales margins converge. In the future, LUKOIL will allocate sales to maximize profitability.
As prices increase, domestic and export sales margins converge. In the future, LUKOIL will allocate sales to maximize profitability.
Source: Kortes
10
Enhancing Export Potential
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2001 2005E
Add Map
Vysotsk terminalup to 10 m tn/yr
due late 2003
Varandei terminal, 1.5M tn/yr(up to 5M)
Kaliningrad term.2.5 m tn/yr
Active
Volgograd –Novorossiysk
product pipeline (TNP)Projected
Perm - Almetievskoil pipeline Active
CPCActive
Kstovo – Yaroslavl – Kirishi product pipeline (TNP)
financing secured recently
Growth of LUKOIL’s share of exports*
* As percentage of total oil production, including both crude oil and products exportsPipelines under
design or construction
Existing pipelines
NORSI Refineryacquired in late 2001
11
Distribution of Well Stock by Profitability and Productivity
• LUKOIL is actively monitoring the efficiency of its well stock
• Some 80% of the Company’s production comes from about 8,500 highly productive wells
• The Company is considering closing up to 5,000 unprofitable wells, which contribute just 3% to total production volume
Ave
rage
flow
rate
, bpd
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000
Most profitable wells0.6% of well stock4.3% of production
High-profit wells40.4 % of well stock77.9% of production
Medium-profit wells31.3% of well stock14.4% of production
14.4% of production
Low-profit wells16.2% of well stock3.0% of production
Loss-making wells11.5% of well stock0.5% of production
77.9% of production Average flow rate = 54 bpd
Data as of 3Q01 for 21,349 wells* variable costs = cost reduction after shutting a well down, including operating costs and taxes
Total well stock = 21,349 wells
12
Closure of Low-margin Wells
15.2%15.7%
17.0%
14%
15%
15%
16%
16%
17%
17%
18%
Jan.01 Apr.01 Jun.01
perc
enta
ge o
f Idl
e w
ells
4,8924,4874,338Idle wells23,83424,02024,126Producing wells28,72628,50728,464Exploitation wells
As LUKOIL proceeds with wells closure program, share of idle wells increasesAs LUKOIL proceeds with wells closure program, share of idle wells increases
Source: LUKOIL
13
Crude Oil Production Costs*
2.94
3.273.32
3.14
2.90 2.90
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
2.80
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
Q1 01 Q2 01 Q3 01 Q4 01 Q1 02 Q2 02E
$/bb
l
* Operating costs in Exploration and Production, including lifting costs, expensed wells maintenance and repairs and other costs; excluding taxes and depreciation
14
Reorganization of LUKOIL Drilling
After reorganization
• Providing high-quality and technologically-advanced services
• Creating a competitive environment
• Reducing costs
• Divest non-core asset
Independent drilling companies
Independent service companies
INTERNATIONAL SERVICE COMPANIESLUKOIL
LUKOIL Drilling
100%
Now
• High cost of services
• High administrative costs
Subsidiaries
Several international drilling and service companies have already expressed interest in the LUKOIL Drilling divestment.
Several international drilling and service companies have already expressed interest in the LUKOIL Drilling divestment.
15
Accelerated Field Development: Case 1
With decrease of recovery ratio
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28Project yearC
umul
ativ
e ca
shflo
ws,
$ m
Accelerated developmentTraditional method
KEY FIGURES:KEY FIGURES:Accelerated development
Traditional development
00.5
11.5
22.5
33.5
4
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27
Project year
Prod
uctio
n, m
ln t Accelerated development
Traditional method
Note: Sample production and cash flow forecasts for one of LUKOIL’s fields in the Volga region
Acce- Tradi-Method: lerated tional
Cumulative 26.7 45.0production, m tons
Cumulative cash 420 750flow, $ m (undiscounted)
# of wells 10 41
Average. flow 800 150rates, tn/day
16
Accelerated Field Development: Case 2
Preserving recovery ratioAlternative approach to accelerated development is acceleration of drilling schedules.
It allows preservation of recovery ratio and has benefits of bringing forward cash streamsComparing development forecasts for one of the Timan-Pechora fields
• With an optimal approach, accelerated development improves economics• LUKOIL is actively considering opportunities for accelerated development at new fields
New
wel
ls c
omm
issi
oned Current
development plan
Accelerated development
Reserves, m bbl 161.6 161.6
Capex, $ m 357.8 357.8
Peak production, m bbl 13.9 20.0
Peak production year 2020 2008
IRR, % 23.7% 38.3%0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
Currentdevelopment planAcceleratedDevelopment
17
Long-term Strategy
SHORT-TERMRESTRUCTURING
(2002-03)
LONG-TERMSTRATEGY
• Revenue Enhancement• Increase oil and oil products exports
• Accelerate development of new fields
• Costs reduction• Reduce the number of low-margin wells
• Reduce headcount
• Wider application of enhanced oil recovery technologies.
• Corporate structure• Consolidate subsidiaries
• Service companies divestment
• Development of new provinces
• Gas program
• International expansion
18
Long-term Production Growth by Region
Growth of production in new provinces
14 13–15
16
15
9
22-23
51
Timan-Pechora
Volga-Urals
WesternSiberia
Caspian
Internationalprojects
Oil and gas production, mmtoe/yr
2001 2010
70-85, including gas
19
Reaching Competitive Cost Level Control
2010E$0,0
$0.5
$1.0
$1.5
$2.0
$2.5
2002
Ave
rage
for R
ussi
a
Ave
rage
for L
UK
OIL
Ave
rage
for R
ussi
a
Ave
rage
for L
UK
OIL
Ageing of reserves, productioncost increases
Per b
arre
l pro
duct
ion
cost
s, $
• LUKOIL is the only oil company in Russia with a prepared resource base in new provinces• With the depletion of Western Siberian reserves, average Russian production costs will grow• Companies with a prepared resource base will have a competitive advantage in terms of production
costs
Restructuring, active reservoirmanagement,
developing highly productivereserves in Yamal,the Caspian and Timan-Pechora
$5.0
$4.5
$4.0
$3.5
$3.0
20
Capital Expenditure in New Projects
LUKOIL’s Capex in New E&P and Pipeline Projects
$ m 1999 2000 2001
E&P in Russia - New regions* 50.0 236.9 445.8
Caspian E&P Projects** 184.3 229.1 244.9
Other International E&P 3.2 0.8 3.5
CPC 72.8 166.1 120.2
TOTAL 310.3 632.9 814.4
* Includes Timan-Pechora and Northern Caspian regions** Includes AIOC, Karachaganak, Kumkol, Tengiz and other Caspian projects
21
Long-Term Growth in New Provinces
Existing international projects, excluding Iraq2001: actual data2002–2010: LUKOIL estimates
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Oil
prod
uctio
n, m
illio
n to
ns
0
5
10
15
20
2520
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Oil
prod
uctio
n, m
illion
tons
Existing fields in Timan-Pechora: AGD, KomiTEK, Northern Territories (100%)2000–2001: actual data2002–2010: LUKOIL estimates
International projectsTiman Pechora
22
International Projects: Cash Flows Forecast
Aggregate forecast of production and cash flows for Azeri Chirag Gyuneshli (AIOC), Kumkol and Karachaganak projects
Source: LUKOIL estimatesOnly includes Azeri Chirag Gyuneshli (AIOC), Kumkol and Karachaganak projects
0
1
2
3
4
5
Prod
uctio
n, m
ton
Oil and gas productionCapexFree cash flow
10
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
Cas
h flo
ws,
$m
9
8
7
6
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
23
North Caspian – Opening of a New Province
A large reserve base has been found and production and transport infrastructure created in an area previously believed to be of low commercial attractiveness
LUKOIL working area
LUKOIL participation
Pipeline
LUKOIL working area
LUKOIL participation
Pipeline
– Identified over 3.3 bn boe of extractable reserves with potential for significant increases
– Significantly larger potential for the whole license area
– LUKOIL has undertaken significant seismic work, on the basis of which 6 wells have been drilled. All were successful
– The Company has created its own production infrastructure. It has its own Astra jack-up rig, a fleet of support vessels, and has created on-shore infrastructure
– Participation in the CPC gives LUKOIL access to easy crude export
LUKOIL is the leading Russian oil major with unique E&P and transport assets in the Caspian
24
Natural Gas Demand Growth
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
bn
cub
ic m
etre
s
Gazprom production Independent producersImport Gas deficit
DEFICIT
Total demand for Russian gas**
The projected decrease in Gazprom’s production leads to a deficit of natural gas in Russia. This creates opportunities for independent producers and importers.
The projected decrease in Gazprom’s production leads to a deficit of natural gas in Russia. This creates opportunities for independent producers and importers.
** Includes domestic, CIS, Baltic demand and commitments under Gazprom’s long-term export contracts.
Source: Gazprom, Energy Ministry, InfoTEK, Renaissance Capital estimates
25
Gas is the most economical fuel for power plants
Cost of electricity production, RUB/kWh*
0.60
0.43
0.22
0.15 0.25 0.35 0.45 0.55 0.65 0.75 0.85
Fuel oil
Coal
Gas
Gas prices have to double to reach cost levels of coal and to triple to reach the level of fuel oil
Gas prices have to double to reach cost levels of coal and to triple to reach the level of fuel oil
* Based on data for representative Russian power plants Source: Renaissance Capital, Lukoil analysis
26
Gas Prices Projections
Real Natural Gas Prices*
120125
6069
119
7786 70
60
103
100 100 100110
2028
36
50
1111
28
4751
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002E 2003E 2005E 2010E 2015E 2020E
USD/ '000 cu. m.
Western EuropeRussia
15
* In constant 2001 USD; LUKOIL projections; Domestic prices are for industrial consumersSource: Renaissance Capital, LUKOIL projections
27
Considerable Increase in Gas Production
• LUKOIL expects significant growth in gas production at its fields• Revenue should grow through developing projects in the CIS and bigger pipeline export volumes• There are opportunities to find additional sources of gas
Gas production and exports from LUKOIL fields
90
10%
20%
35%
50%80
Existing capacities
Timan-Pechora
Caspian
Yamal (Northern Russia)
Volga region
Share of gas exports in production
20%
7060
4050
Bn
m3
30201002000 2005 2010 2020
28
Bolshekhetskaya Depression Gas Production
• In 2001 LUKOIL acquired OAO «Yamalneftegazdobycha», which holds licenses for significant reserves in Bolshekhetskaya depression area
• Some 1 Tcm of gas reserves in C1-C2 categories
• Production start – 2005.
• First stage – Nakhodkinskoe field
Payback period: 5 - 10 years.
Close proximity to Gazprom’s fields and transport infrastructure (150 km)
S. Messoyakhskoe
Pyakyakhinskoe
Khalmer-payutinskoe
Vareiskoe
Yamburg
Novy Urengoi
L=150км
Zapolyarnoe
1st stage:Nakhodkinskoe
Pipelines FieldsExisting gas LUKOIL's
Existing condensate Gazprom’s
Projected Arctic Gas’s
Pipelines FieldsExisting gas LUKOIL's
Existing condensate Gazprom’s
Projected Arctic Gas’s
Perekatnoe
YamburgPerekatnoe
Samburg
Yevo-Yakhta
Samburg
29
Reserves of Bolshekhetskaya Depression
0.00
30.00
Nakhodkinskoe Stage 2 fields
bn b
oe
C3C2C1
Hydrocarbon reserves by category
30
Cash Flow Forecast for Nakhodkinskoe Field
0
5
10
15
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Prod
uctio
n, b
cm
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
Cas
h flo
ws,
$m
Gas production Capital expenditures Free cash flows
Assumptions:• Domestic gas price: $24.7 / 1000 м3
• World gas price: $100 / 1000 м3
• Transportation costs: $22 / 1000м3
• Construction of 150 km pipeline• Forecast in constant 2002 USD.
31
Acquisition of High-value Assets
LUKOIL’s strategy aims to increase reserves throughprofitable acquisitions and exploration
Total upstream capex and exploration expenses in 2001 amounted to $1.6 bn
2001 reserve additions, bn boe NPV*, bn $
Proved 3.61 $4.35Possible 1.57 $1.75Probable 3.25 $1.44Total 8.43 $7.54
Reserve additions include:
• Gross increase in reserves from discoveries on the Caspian (only 1 field included so far),
• Acquisitions of gas reserve of Bolshekhetskaya depression on the Tazovski Peninsula
• Reserves of the recently acquired AGD
• Additional volumes from the Komi Republic as a result of exploration, more efficient production, acquiring minority stakes
Reserve additions include:
• Gross increase in reserves from discoveries on the Caspian (only 1 field included so far),
• Acquisitions of gas reserve of Bolshekhetskaya depression on the Tazovski Peninsula
• Reserves of the recently acquired AGD
• Additional volumes from the Komi Republic as a result of exploration, more efficient production, acquiring minority stakes
* NPV calculated according to the U.S. SEC’s methodology
32
Leadership in Adding Hydrocarbon Reserves
Hydrocarbon reserves additions by leading Russian oil companies
33.642.3
128.8
35.521.3
52.741.1
70.1
35.725.4
32.1
24.410.96.8
27.234.8
21.0
54.8
13.712.1 4.74.1
37.829.5
48.5
31.632.2
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Res
erve
add
ition
s, m
tons LUKOIL
SurgutTyumen Oil CompanyYukos
• LUKOIL has the largest hydrocarbon reserves• The value of its reserves will continue to grow as the Russian economy develops • LUKOIL will seek opportunities to accelerate monetisation of its reserves
33
Increasing Comfort for Investors
Management Committee, President
• Listing in London and New York
• Consistent Dividend Policy
• Improving investor relations
• Bringing management systems in line with International standards
• Increasing transparency
• Implementation of Corporate Governance Code
• Introduction of independent directors
FINANCEE&P
DIVISIONR&M
DIVISIONGENERALAFFAIRS
STRATEGIC PLANNING AND DEVELOPMENT
LUKOIL International
(Holding and finances)
Subsidiaries Subsidiaries
BusinessDevelopment Departments
BusinessDevelopment Departments
Business Development Departments
34
Increasing export sales
Increasing export sales
Improving return on
investment
Improving return on
investment
PROFIT GROWTHPROFIT GROWTH
INCREASED COMPANY VALUEINCREASED COMPANY VALUE
Reducing operating
costs
Reducing operating
costs
Accelerating development of
new fields
Accelerating development of
new fields