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LONDON MARKETS International Property Consultants Analysis of the London office market Summer 2018

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Page 1: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

LONDONMARKETS

International Property Consultants

Analysis of the London office market Summer 2018

Page 2: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

Key schemes under constructionH1 2018 key deals

12.9

3.4MILLION SQ FT

MILLION SQ FT

30%

£110

23%

£68.50

5.2%

£70.00

22 Bishopsgate1,275,000 sq ft (1,275,000 available space)AXA Real Estate Investment Managers (UK) Ltd

Five Bank Street715,000 sq ft (435,000 sq ft available space)Canary Wharf Group Plc

100 Bishopsgate907,400 sq ft (159,000 sq ft available space)Brookfield Europe Holding Ltd

100 Liverpool Street515,000 sq ft (249,000 sq ft available space)British Land Company Plc

128-142 Praed Street360,000 sq ft (360,000 sq ft available space)Sellar Property Group

Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation161,000 sq ftCity

Bryan Cave Leighton Paisner 120,889 sq ftCity

Google122,705 sq ftKing’s Cross & Euston

Mimecast113,467 sq ftCity

Publicis Media212,000 sq ftWhite City

www.geraldeve.com

Tenant Space

Q2 2018 Availability

Grade A Availability

Availability Rate

Q2 2018 Take-up

West End Prime Rent (p

er sq

ft)

City Prime Rent (per sq ft

)

Mid

town Prime Rent (per sq ft)

Page 3: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

Occupiers continue to commit to the capital despite economic uncertainty

Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on the same period in 2017. Despite the uncertainty in the economy as the UK moves closer towards Brexit, high leasing activity is expected to continue with a record 3.9 million sq ft currently under offer.

Once again, the media and technology sector were the main drivers of occupier demand, and accounted for 26% of all deals. Notably Google took a further 123,000 sq ft in King’s Cross & Euston, whilst cyber security and data management company, Mimecast, took 114,000 sq ft in the City. Elsewhere Sony Pictures signed a 77,000 sq ft pre-let at Derwent London’s Brunel Building in Paddington.

The high level of leasing activity seen from this sector over recent years is reflective of the changing nature of occupier employment within the capital, with Oxford Economics forecasting positive employment growth in this sector over the next five years.

Professional service firms have also been active, and in particular the legal sector with the recently merged Bryan Cave Leighton Paisner taking 121,000 sq ft as their new headquarters in the City, and Sidley Austin also committing to the City by taking 101,000 sq ft.

The growth of serviced offices across the capital continued, and in particular Spaces, which took 247,000 sq ft across four buildings in the first half of the year. The demand for serviced office space continues to be high, and an increasing vacancy rate for smaller offices in London is a growing concern for traditional landlords, which will need to offer more flexibility and more agreeable terms in order to remain attractive to certain occupiers.

Development completions lead to an increase in availability

Overall availability increased by 5% in the first half of the year, with an availability rate of 5.2% recorded at the end of June.

Whilst the divestment of tenant space continues to be a major part of the market, currently accounting for 23% of total availability, it was the completion of a number of development schemes over the last six months which caused the slight rise. The amount of available new space increased by 15% over this period.

Although there is a further 2.8 million sq ft of new space set to be delivered in the second half of the year, 64% of this has already been let. Also with the strong occupier demand for new, higher quality floorplates, most of the remaining space is likely to be let on completion. Therefore the overall availability rate is unlikely to increase further.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

5.0

4.5

4.0

Million sq ft

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

3.5

3.0

0

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2017

Q3

2017

Q2

2017

Q1

2017

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2016

Q4

2015

Q3

2015

Q2

2015

7Million sq ft

4

6

5

3

2

1

0

2010

2020

2018

2015

2014

2017

2016

2011

2013

2012

2019

14

10

Million sq ft

6

12

8

0

2

4

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q4

2016

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Quarterly take-up by regionSource: Gerald Eve

Development pipeline Source: Gerald Eve

Quarterly availability by quality Source: Gerald Eve

Canary Wharf East West Southbank Five year average

Completed Under Construction Available Under Construction Let

Unrefurbished Refurbished New

3

Page 4: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

NationalTheatre

London South Bank University

Tower Bridge

Tower of London

30 St Mary Axe

City Hall

Tate Modern

Whitechapel Gallery

London Stadium

Bank of England

Mansion House

Somerset House

St Paul’sCathedral

Barbican Centre

London Eye

Sadler’s Wells

Geffrye Museum

The Old Truman Brewery

Brick Lane MarketOld Spitalfields Market

Scala

The British Library

The WallaceCollection

BBC

Buckingham Palace

Selfridges

Kensington Palace

Science Museum

Royal Albert Hall

The National Gallery

Royal Opera House

V&A

Harrods

Southbank Centre

Imperial War Museum

The Oval

Westminster Abbey

Westminster Cathedral

Battersea Power Station

Palace of Westminster

Canary Wharf

Regent’s Park

Lincoln’sInn Fields

SouthwarkPark

Tower HamletsCemetery Park

Hyde Park

Green Park

St James’s Park

Victoria Park

LONDON OFFICE RENTS

www.geraldeve.com

Rent Free 24 months

Southbank

£45.00£65.00

Grade A

Grade BRent Free 18 months

Victoria

Rent Free 21 months

£55.00£75.00

Grade A

Grade B

Knightsbridge

Rent Free 21 months

£67.50£90.00

Grade A

Grade B

Mayfair & St James’s

Rent Free 21 months

£87.50£110.00

Grade A

Grade B

Soho

£70.00£90.00

Grade A

Grade BRent Free 18 months

Paddington

Rent Free 21 months

£55.00£72.50

Grade A

Grade B

Marylebone

£65.00£85.00

Grade A

Grade BRent Free 21 months

Fitzrovia

Rent Free 24 months

£60.00£82.50

Grade A

Grade B

Covent Garden

Rent Free 21 months

£65.00£77.50

Grade A

Grade B

Midtown

£55.00£70.00

Grade A

Grade BRent Free 24 months

Fa

rringdon & Clerkenwell

Rent Free 21 months

£55.00£65.00

Grade A

Grade B

King’s Cross & Euston

Rent Free 18 months

£60.00£80.00

Grade A

Grade B

Page 5: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

NationalTheatre

London South Bank University

Tower Bridge

Tower of London

30 St Mary Axe

City Hall

Tate Modern

Whitechapel Gallery

London Stadium

Bank of England

Mansion House

Somerset House

St Paul’sCathedral

Barbican Centre

London Eye

Sadler’s Wells

Geffrye Museum

The Old Truman Brewery

Brick Lane MarketOld Spitalfields Market

Scala

The British Library

The WallaceCollection

BBC

Buckingham Palace

Selfridges

Kensington Palace

Science Museum

Royal Albert Hall

The National Gallery

Royal Opera House

V&A

Harrods

Southbank Centre

Imperial War Museum

The Oval

Westminster Abbey

Westminster Cathedral

Battersea Power Station

Palace of Westminster

Canary Wharf

Regent’s Park

Lincoln’sInn Fields

SouthwarkPark

Tower HamletsCemetery Park

Hyde Park

Green Park

St James’s Park

Victoria Park

See inside back cover for definitions

Ten year term

5

City

£60.00£68.50

Grade A

Grade BRent Free 24 months

Shoreditch

Rent Free 24 months

£50.00£70.00

Grade A

Grade B

Canary Wharf

Rent Free 24 months

£37.00£50.00

Grade A

Grade B

Page 6: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

The majority of the larger deals fell in the City, where over £3 billion was transacted in Q2 alone. Notably British Land and GIC sold their 5 Broadgate development to a subsidiary of Hong Kong investor, CK Asset Holdings, formerly known as Cheung Kong, for £1bn, which reflects a net initial yield of 3.95%. British Land and its then joint venture partner committed to the development of 5 Broadgate in 2012 to house UBS’s global investment banking business.

The building, which was completed in 2015, generated a total property return of 18% per annum for British Land, and was a significant catalyst for the further development of Broadgate now underway.

Elsewhere, Singaporean listed investor, Ho Bee Land, completed its £650m acquisition of AXA Investment Managers 600,000 sq ft development, Ropemaker Place. Ho Bee, one of Singapore’s most prolific overseas property investors, went under offer in May for a net initial yield of around 4.68%.

Blackstone agreed to sell 20 Old Bailey to a Korean investor, Mirae Asset Daewoo for £341m, securing the City of London asset at a net initial yield of 4%.

Outside of the City, investment activity remains subdued, partly due to limited stock, with only £1.8 billion transacted in the first half of the year. In the West End, Aviva Investors sold 20 Soho Square, W1, for £117m, to a private European investor. The 66,000 sq ft Soho office was redeveloped by Aviva in 2016 and let in its entirety to Palantair Technologies UK for its UK headquarters.

UK investors have also been active, and in Midtown, Labtech Investments acquired 90 High Holborn for £200 million at a yield of 4.6%, with the aim of creating a co-working hub at the building. Likewise, Seaforth Land purchased CAA House, Kingsway, for £165 million at a 4% yield.

However, beyond the headline deals, trading has been fairly quiet. The reduction in the number of transactions partly reflects an aversion to risk in the light of worsening fundamentals and concern over the impact of Brexit on both occupier demand and liquidity. Notably, the average vacancy rate of buildings that have traded over the last 12 months was just 3%, reflecting the current investor preference for prime, well-let buildings. The value add deals that have been prevalent in recent years are still in demand where there is an opportunity for strong income growth, but are now receiving additional scrutiny with an appropriate discount being applied for risk.

This is reflected in our forecasts below, where amid a lack of capital growth, income return will once again be the main driver behind total returns. Our base case continues to be for a general softening of office yields in the latter part of 2018, brought on by reduced economic certainty.

CENTRAL LONDON INVESTMENT

6

5

£ billion

1

2

4

3

0

Q2

2013

Q3

2013

Q4

2013

Q2

2014

Q1

2014

Q3

2014

Q4

2014

Q2

2015

Q1

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q2

2016

Q1

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2016

Q2

2017

Q1

2017

Q1

2018

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q2

2018

City Midtown

West End 5 year average

8.0

7.0

6.0

%

2.0

3.0

1.0

5.0

4.0

0

-1.0

-2.0

2017

2022

2018

2019

2020

2021

Capital growth Income return

Total return

Central London investment volumes Sources: Property Data, Gerald Eve

Central London forecastsSources: MSCI, Gerald Eve

ContactLloyd DaviesMobile +44 (0)7767 [email protected]

Prime London offices remain in high demand with investment volumes exceeding £6 billion in the first half of the year. Far Eastern investors continue to be the main driver, drawn to London by the offering of strong income returns and long lease profiles.

www.geraldeve.com

Page 7: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

Hyde Park

Edgware Road

Paddington

Lancaster Gate

140000s sq ft

120

0

80

60

100

20

40

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2018

Q4

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q1

2018

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

600000s sq ft £ per sq ft

300

500

400

200

100

0

80

55

70

60

75

65

50

40

35

45

30

2008

2019

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2020

2018

2017

2016

450000s sq ft

200

150

300

250

400

350

100

50

0

Q3

2015

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2017

Q3

2017

Q2

2017

Q1

2017

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2016

Q4

2015

DemandQuarterly take-up and five year average

Source: Gerald Eve

SupplyAvailability by grade

DevelopmentDevelopment pipeline and prime rent

Paddington has enjoyed a strong half year with leasing volumes reaching 159,000 sq ft, a 66% increase on the last six months of 2017. The largest deal came when Sony Pictures signed a 77,000 sq ft pre-let at Derwent London’s Brunel Building. Sony will occupy floors 10 to 13, as well as part of floor 9, on a 15-year lease. The development will complete in Q2 2019 and will total 243,000 sq ft.

At Paddington Central, British Land announced that a further 15,000 sq ft will be taken by its flexible office brand, Storey. Storey is now operational across its London campuses and with 88,000 sq ft let or under offer, its occupancy rate is 77%. Specifically at Paddington Central, Storey is fully let to occupiers including international mobile network operator Ice Group, telecommunications infrastructure company BAI Communications UK, and packaging manufacturer KP Group.

The high levels of leasing activity have led to a decrease in overall availability, with the availability rate falling from 10.7% to 5.9% over the last six months.

High vacancy rates in the immediate aftermath of the global financial crisis restricted development in the market, however the success of 4 Kingdom Street, which completed in 2017 and is now fully let, has meant that speculative construction activity is beginning to increase in Paddington. The first scheme to be delivered will be the Brunel Building, followed by British Land’s 5 Kingdom Street (220,000 sq ft) in 2020, and Sellar Property’s Paddington Square (360,000 sq ft) in 2021.

PADDINGTON

£72.50Prime Rent

5.9%Availability Rate

37.0%Tenant Space

3Underground Stations

0Michelin Star Restaurants

33Pubs

62%Media & Technology take-up

775,000 sq ftUnder Construction

213,000 sq ftUnder Offer

ContactPatrick RyanMobile +44 (0)7792 [email protected]

Take-up Five year average

Completed Under construction let Under construction available Prime rent (RHS)

New Refurbished Unrefurbished

7

Page 8: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

Source: Gerald Eve

The Wallace Collection

Edgware Road

Baker Street

Marble Arch

DemandQuarterly take-up and five year average

SupplyAvailability by grade

DevelopmentDevelopment pipeline and prime rent

Over 200,000 sq ft was leased in the first half of 2018, with the majority falling in the first quarter. Over this period there were only two deals above 10,000 sq ft. Namely; serviced office firm I2 Offices, taking 21,000 sq ft at 33 Cavendish Sq, and Iridium Assets Limited which took 15,000 sq ft at 22-25 Portman Close.

The demand for high quality space has been evidenced by the speed in which developments have been let, notably Portman Estate’s 1-9 Seymour Street (55,000 sq ft) which completed in Q1 2018 and is fully committed with 3 floors let and 2 floors under offer. This high level of leasing activity is set to continue in the second half of the year, with currently 148,000 sq ft under offer, the majority of which is for new or recently refurbished space.

Although Marylebone’s availability rate remains the second lowest of our submarkets, the delivery of new office space increased the availability rate to 3.3%. There is now currently 379,000 sq ft of space available to let in the market, 28% of which is grade A quality.

Looking ahead, there are a number of buildings in the pipeline in Marylebone. The next scheme to be delivered will be Almacantar’s 1 Marble Arch Place (100,000 sq ft), which is expected to complete in the first half of 2020. The next significant new start is likely to be 19–35 Baker Street, which willadd a further 258,000 sq ft of office stock to the market.

MARYLEBONE

£85.00Prime Rent

3.3%Availability Rate

22.6%Tenant Space

5Underground Stations

4Michelin Star Restaurants

55Pubs

34%Finance & Banking take-up

95,000 sq ftUnder Construction

148,000 sq ftUnder Offer

Take-up Five year average

Completed Under construction let Under construction available Prime rent (RHS)

New Refurbished Unrefurbished

ContactRhodri PhillipsMobile +44 (0)7768 [email protected]

www.geraldeve.com

200000s sq ft

160

140

180

0

100

80

120

40

60

20

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

450000s sq ft

150

250

300

350

400

200

100

50

0

95

70

80

85

90

75

65

60

2008

2019

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2020

2018

2017

2016

£ per sq ft400

300

000s sq ft

100

200

0

Q3

2015

Q2

2018

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q1

2018

Q2

2017

Q1

2017

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2016

Q4

2015

Page 9: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

MAYFAIR & ST JAMES’S

Hyde Park

Green Park

St James’s Park

Bond StreetOxford Circus

Hyde Park Corner

Piccadilly Circus

DemandQuarterly take-up and five year average

SupplyAvailability by grade

DevelopmentDevelopment pipeline and prime rent

Following a subdued second half to 2017, leasing activity has picked up in 2018 with 264,000 sq ft taken in Q1, and 321,000 sq ft in Q2, both of which exceeded the five year average.

There have been a number of larger deals signed, namely serviced office provider LEO’s decision to take 32,000 sq ft on a 15-year lease at Park House. The building is now fully let with LEO occupying the top two floors, seven and eight, creating a new luxury space to meet customer demand for high quality office space in Mayfair.

Elsewhere, J O Hambro Capital Management took 20,000 sq ft at 1 St James’s Market, whilst Barings Real Estate secured a trio of lettings at their recently refurbished 8 Waterloo Place, which is now fully let. The deals include Apollo Tyres, which agreed a 10 year lease for 5,000 sq ft for a rent equivalent to £104.00 per sq ft.

Despite the increase in letting activity, a number of development completions has seen the overall availability rate increase slightly to 4.9%. However this is expected to fall over the coming quarters as demand for high quality space remains strong, evidenced by KKR pre-letting 57,000 sq ft at Great Portman Estates’ 18-20 Hanover Square.

Additionally the top 3 floors in the tower building within Tishman Speyer’s first phase of the newly delivered Smithson Plaza scheme in St James’s have been placed under offer upon delivery, at record level rents. Gerald Eve are advising Tishman Speyer.

£110.00Prime Rent

4.9%Availability Rate

14.9%Tenant Space

6Underground Stations

24Michelin Star Restaurants

76Pubs

44%Serviced Offices take-up

280,000 sq ftUnder Construction

258,000 sq ftUnder Offer

ContactPatrick RyanMobile +44 (0)7792 [email protected]

Source: Gerald Eve

Take-up Five year average

Completed Under construction let Under construction available Prime rent (RHS)

New Refurbished Unrefurbished

9

400

350

000s sq ft

300

0

200

150

250

50

100

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

600000s sq ft

300

500

400

200

100

0

2008

2009

2019

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2020

2018

2017

2016

130

90

110

120

100

80

70

£ per sq ft1200

000s sq ft

800

1000

600

200

400

0

Q3

2015

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q2

2017

Q1

2017

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2016

Q4

2015

Page 10: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

KNIGHTSBRIDGE

Hyde Park Green Park

Victoria

Sloane Square

100000s sq ft

90

0

70

60

80

40

30

50

20

10

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

90000s sq ft

30

60

70

80

50

40

20

10

0

2008

2009

2019

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2020

2018

2017

2016

95

75

85

90

80

65

70

50

55

60

£ per sq ft250

100

200

150

50

0

000s sq ft

Q3

2015

Q2

2018

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q1

2018

Q2

2017

Q1

2017

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2016

Q4

2015

DemandQuarterly take-up and five year average

SupplyAvailability by grade

DevelopmentDevelopment pipeline and prime rent

Office take-up remains subdued in 2018 with only 22,000 sq ft taken in the first half of the year. The market has now had three consecutive quarters below the five year average, largely down to a lack of available high quality stock.

All the deals signed were for less than 6,000 sq ft; notable lettings include Volpi Capital which agreed to take 3,000 sq ft at 207 Sloane Street, and Catalina Holdings also took 3,000 sq ft at Montpelier House on Brompton Road.

Whilst overall availability has increased over the last 12 months, this is largely due to an increase in refurbished and unrefurbished stock following a few tenant defections, whilst there is no prime grade A office space available. With only two schemes delivered

over the last 10 years; 127–135 Sloane Street (78,000 sq ft) in 2016, and 50 Sloane Avenue (22,500 sq ft) completed in 2017, the lack of high quality space will maintain prime rents at £90 per sq ft, despite the weakening demand.

However, new high quality space is on the way; Chelsfield Partners LLP have begun development of The Knightsbridge Estate, which will deliver a much needed 67,000 sq ft of new high quality space to the market, within a wider mixed use scheme. In addition, Motcomb Estates, advised by Gerald Eve, will also deliver 45,000 sq ft of grade A space with the refurbishment of 27 Knightsbridge, which will help ease the supply squeeze for grade A office stock.

£90.00Prime Rent

5.7%Availability Rate

18.3%Tenant Space

2Underground Stations

6Michelin Star Restaurants

32Pubs

36%Professional Services take-up

67,000 sq ftUnder Construction

25,000 sq ftUnder Offer

Source: Gerald Eve

Take-up Five year average

Completed Under construction let Under construction available Prime rent (RHS)

New Refurbished Unrefurbished

ContactSophie DawMobile +44 (0)7880 [email protected]

www.geraldeve.com

Page 11: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

Green ParkHyde Park

Palace of Westminster

Victoria

Pimlico

St James’s Park

Hyde Park

Westminster

Green Park

450000s sq ft

350

300

400

0

200

150

250

50

100

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

700000s sq ft

400

600

500

300

200

100

0

2008

2009

2019

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2020

2018

2017

2016

85

75

80

65

70

50

55

60

£ per sq ft800

000s sq ft

500

700

600

400

200

100

300

0

Q3

2015

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2017

Q3

2017

Q2

2017

Q1

2017

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2016

Q4

2015

DemandQuarterly take-up and five year average

SupplyAvailability by grade

DevelopmentDevelopment pipeline and prime rent

Occupier sentiment remains positive in Victoria as leasing volumes reached 540,000 sq ft in the first half of the year, a 10% increase on the previous 6 months.

The recent completion of a number of schemes and their surrounding infrastructure has transformed the market into one of London’s most dynamic submarkets, and as a result occupier demand for good quality space is high. This was evidenced by a flurry of lettings at the recently completed Nova North totalling 143,000 sq ft, including engineering firm Atkins, which took 66,000 sq ft. Elsewhere in the market, three floors in the Peak have been let, notably Vivo Energy acquired the fifth floor from Guggenheim Partners, advised by Gerald Eve.

The delivery of several large schemes in late 2016 and early 2017 significantly increased the overall availability in the market, particularly for new high quality space, and as a result, prime rental values declined throughout 2017. However, as the majority of the space has now been absorbed, positive rental growth is expected once again over the next three years.

Following the recent completion of London & Oriental’s Buckingham Green scheme delivering 55,000 sq ft, there are few new development starts expected in the near term, however there are a number of refurbishment projects underway, notably at 64 Victoria Street. The 186,000 sq ft office building was home to Westminster City Council until the middle of 2017, when the renovation began, and is scheduled to complete in 2019.

VICTORIA

£75.00Prime Rent

5.4%Availability Rate

21.3%Tenant Space

5Underground Stations

2Michelin Star Restaurants

76Pubs

26%Associations take-up

169,000 sq ftUnder Construction

84,000 sq ftUnder Offer

ContactRhodri PhillipsMobile +44 (0)7768 [email protected]

Source: Gerald Eve

Take-up Five year average

Completed Under construction let Under construction available Prime rent (RHS)

New Refurbished Unrefurbished

11

Page 12: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

SOHO

Soho Square Gardens

Golden Square

Oxford Circus

Tottenham Court Road

Piccadilly Circus Leicester Square

160000s sq ft

0

120

100

140

20

60

40

80

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

350000s sq ft

200

300

250

150

100

50

0

2008

2009

2019

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2020

2018

2017

2016

95

90

75

85

80

65

70

60

£ per sq ft400

000s sq ft

250

350

300

200

100

50

150

0

Q3

2015

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2017

Q3

2017

Q2

2017

Q1

2017

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2016

Q4

2015

DemandQuarterly take-up and five year average

SupplyAvailability by grade

DevelopmentDevelopment pipeline and prime rent

Take-up volumes totalled 183,000 sq ft in the first half of the year, with Q2 exceeding the five year average for only the second time in 18 months.

Soho is a long-established entertainment district and home to a cluster of traditional and new media companies, and this sector continues to be active in the market with software company Zuora taking 10,000 sq ft at 1 Dean Street for £90 per sq ft.

The serviced office sector were the most active, accounting for 32% of take-up with Fora Space Limited taking 36,000 sq ft at 33 Broadwick Street.

The construction of Crossrail is enabling regeneration and the delivery of new mixed-use schemes, especially around Tottenham Court Road, while improving retail and restaurant options are helping to lure firms to the Broadwick Street area, notably OakNorth Bank in 2018, which agreed to take 9,000 sq ft at 57 Broadwick Street.

A number of development completions towards the end of 2017, and at the beginning of 2018, brought an additional 100,000 sq ft of new space to the market, leading to an overall increase in availability. However the high leasing activity has reduced this as we’ve moved through 2018.

Looking forward, Global Holdings’ 21 Soho Square will complete in September, delivering 22,500 sq ft of grade A space, whilst Soho Estates’ Ilona Rose House development on the west side of Charing Cross Road, will deliver 138,000 sq ft of office space in Q4 2020.

£90.00Prime Rent

4.0%Availability Rate

25.7%Tenant Space

4Underground Stations

3Michelin Star Restaurants

83Pubs

32%Serviced Offices take-up

38,000 sq ftUnder Construction

67,000 sq ftUnder Offer

ContactSophie DickensMobile +44 (0)7763 [email protected]

Source: Gerald Eve

Take-up Five year average

Completed Under construction let Under construction available Prime rent (RHS)

New Refurbished Unrefurbished

www.geraldeve.com

Page 13: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

RIBA

British Museum

University College London

Great OrmondStreet Hospital

Wigmore Hall

Russell Square

Goodge Street

Holborn

Tottenham Court RoadOxford Circus

450000s sq ft

350

400

300

250

0

200

150

100

50

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

800000s sq ft

700

600

500

300

400

200

100

0

2008

2009

2019

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2020

2018

90

75

85

80

65

70

50

55

60

2017

2016

£ per sq ft500

000s sq ft

400

300

100

200

0

Q3

2015

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2017

Q3

2017

Q2

2017

Q1

2017

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2016

Q4

2015

DemandQuarterly take-up and five year average

SupplyAvailability by grade

DevelopmentDevelopment pipeline and prime rent

Leasing activity has been largely subdued in Fitzrovia as Q2 2018 recorded the third consecutive quarter of below average take-up. Only 165,000 sq ft has been leased so far in 2018, with a lack of good quality space restricting larger deals.

However, occupier sentiment remains strong in the market, and the arrival of Crossrail at Tottenham Court Road from the end of 2018, in addition to the retail improvements at the eastern end of Oxford Street, will help to increase occupier demand for new space.

This demand was exemplified by Great Portland Estates announcement that it has fully let all of its 37,400 sq ft development at 55 Wells Street, including the letting to marketing company Williams Lea Tag, which acquired 19,300 sq ft.

With a limited pipeline, the lack of new space will continue to restrict larger deals and the availability rate has fallen to 3.8%. 80 Charlotte Street is the only building currently under construction, and although that won’t complete until 2019, it is already 96% let or under offer. Retail occupier New Look, were expected to vacate space at 45 Mortimer Street, but cancelled its move to King’s Cross in January, thus reducing availability further.

This lack of availability, particularly of high quality stock, will keep an upward pressure and lead to positive rental value growth over the next three years.

FITZROVIA

£82.50Prime Rent

3.8%Availability Rate

26.1%Tenant Space

5Underground Stations

5Michelin Star Restaurants

59Pubs

50%Corporate take-up

332,000 sq ftUnder Construction

71,000 sq ftUnder Offer

Source: Gerald Eve

Take-up Five year average

Completed Under construction let Under construction available Prime rent (RHS)

ContactRhodri PhillipsMobile +44 (0)7768 [email protected]

New Refurbished Unrefurbished

13

Page 14: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

COVENT GARDEN

Lincoln’sInn Fields

River Thames

Leicester Square

Charing Cross

Covent Garden

Embankment

700000s sq ft

500

600

400

300

0

100

200

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

500

450

000s sq ft

300

400

85

55

65

45

50

75

80

60

70

40

350

250

200

150

100

0

2008

2009

2019

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2020

2018

2017

2016

£ per sq ft600

000s sq ft

200

400

500

300

100

0

Q3

2015

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2017

Q3

2017

Q2

2017

Q1

2017

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2016

Q4

2015

DemandQuarterly take-up and five year average

SupplyAvailability by grade

DevelopmentDevelopment pipeline and prime rent

Take-up levels have been relatively subdued in Covent Garden, and in Q2, the volume of leasing was below the five year average for the third consecutive quarter.

220,000 sq ft has been leased in the first half of 2018, although this was largely composed of smaller lettings, with only a handful of deals above 10,000 sq ft. Serviced office provider, Regus, took 31,000 sq ft across four floors at 60-62 St Martins Lane, paying £47.50 per sq ft. Hogarth Worldwide will pay £69 per sq ft to take 13,000 sq ft at Shaftesbury House, whilst media & technology firm Twitch took 11,000 sq ft at 1 New Oxford Street.

Despite the recent drop in letting volumes, Covent Garden has been one of London’s best performing submarkets since the EU referendum, with several significant deals taking place here amid strong demand from firms in the creative sector.

It is also the destination of one of the largest speculative developments, with the Post Building set to complete later this year. Brockton Capital’s scheme will bring 263,000 sq ft of new space to the market, although 126,000 sq ft has already been pre-let by US management consulting firm McKinsey & Company.

The near completion of the Post Building, alongside the deliveries of Lazari Investments’ 262-267 High Holborn (40,000 sq ft), and AXA and Morgan Capital Partners’ 182-184 High Holborn (40,000 sq ft), have increased the overall availability rate for the submarket to 3.8%.

£77.50Prime Rent

3.8%Availability Rate

18.4%Tenant Space

6Underground Stations

1Michelin Star Restaurants

79Pubs

37%Professional Services take-up

303,000 sq ftUnder Construction

90,000 sq ftUnder Offer

ContactSophie DawMobile +44 (0)7880 [email protected]

Source: Gerald Eve

Take-up Five year average

Completed Under construction let Under construction available Prime rent (RHS)

New Refurbished Unrefurbished

www.geraldeve.com

Page 15: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

MIDTOWNMuseum of London

Leicester Square

King’s Cross

Farringdon

Blackfriars

Euston

Picadilly Circus

Chancery Lane

1200

1000

000s sq ft

800

600

400

200

0

2008

2009

2019

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2020

75

55

65

45

50

60

70

40

£ per sq ft

2018

2017

2016

DemandQuarterly take-up and five year average

SupplyAvailability by grade

DevelopmentDevelopment pipeline and prime rent

Occupiers continue to be drawn to Midtown with Q2 recording its fifth consecutive quarter of above average take-up, with 771,000 sq ft signed in 2018 alone.

Serviced office providers were particularly active and accounted for 37% of take-up, notably WeWork which took 131,500 sq ft at Aviation House, Kingsway. The media and technology sector were also active in the first half of the year. with media agency, the7stars, taking 23,000 sq ft at Bush House. Elsewhere Boult Wade Tennant took 17,000 sq ft at 8 Salsbury Square.

The second half of the year is likely to be equally strong in terms of lettings, with currently 425,000 sq ft under offer across the market. The recent high level of leasing activity, where over 1.3 million sq ft of office space has been taken over the last 12 months, has led to a sharp decrease in the availability rate to 4.2%, down from 5.6% in December 2017. This is despite a wave of deliveries hitting the market in 2018, with all major deliveries pre-let well in advance of completion.

As the availability rate has fallen, prime rents have increased to £70 per sq ft in 2018, which could force some tenants to consider moving further east, such as AECOM, which moved from Holborn to Aldgate recently.

£70.00Prime Rent

4.2%Availability Rate

20.6%Tenant Space

7Underground Stations

0Michelin Star Restaurants

73Pubs

37%Serviced Offices take-up

84,000 sq ftUnder Construction

425,000 sq ftUnder Offer

ContactAmy BryantMobile +44 (0)7551 [email protected]

600000s sq ft

0

400

300

500

200

100

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2018

Q4

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q1

2018

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

1400000s sq ft

1000

1200

800

400

200

600

0

Q3

2015

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2017

Q3

2017

Q2

2017

Q1

2017

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2016

Q4

2015

Source: Gerald Eve

Take-up Five year average

Completed Under construction let Under construction available Prime rent (RHS)

New Refurbished Unrefurbished

15

Page 16: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

Mornington Crescent

King’s Cross

Euston

350000s sq ft

300

0

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

200

150

250

100

50

400

350

000s sq ft

200

300

250

150

100

0

2008

2009

2019

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2020

2018

2017

2016

85

55

65

45

50

75

80

60

70

40

£ per sq ft300

000s sq ft

150

250

200

100

50

0

Q3

2015

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2017

Q3

2017

Q2

2017

Q1

2017

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2016

Q4

2015

DemandQuarterly take-up and five year average

SupplyAvailability by grade

DevelopmentDevelopment pipeline and prime rent

Leasing activity has so far totalled 203,000 sq ft in 2018, with the majority of deals falling in the first quarter of the year.

Through recent developments and infrastructure improvements, the market has been transformed into one of the most desirable areas in the capital. Whilst King’s Cross & Euston has always attracted a diverse range of tenants, media and technology firms continue to dominate the market. This again has been evidenced in 2018 with significant deals for Google, which signed a 123,000 sq ft assignment from NewLook at Handyside Street, and Facebook’s giant 611,000 sq ft pre-let at King’s Cross Central development in Q3 2018.

Serviced office firms have also been attracted to the area, in Q1 Be Offices Limited signed a 10,300 sq ft lease at Evergreen House on Euston Road. The office provider has agreed to pay £58 per sq ft on a 10 year lease.

Demand for space in the area remains high, and is evidenced by the fact that all of the major schemes to have delivered since 2014 have been fully let, keeping the availability rate as low as 2.7%. The availability rate is likely to remain at a relatively low level over the next few years, as the only significant buildings that are either currently under construction or expected to start are fully pre-let or under offer. Notably, the largest development in the submarket’s history, Google’s 870,000 sq ft Landscraper project, has been entirely taken by the media and technology firm.

As a result to the lack of available space, prime rents are expected to continue to grow over the next three years as occupier competition for the best space intensifies.

KING’S CROSS & EUSTON

£80.00Prime Rent

2.7%Availability Rate

31.5%Tenant Space

6Underground Stations

0Michelin Star Restaurants

58Pubs

94%Media & Technology take-up

236,000 sq ftUnder Construction

230,000 sq ftUnder Offer

Source: Gerald Eve

Take-up Five year average

Completed Under construction let Under construction available Prime rent (RHS)

ContactRhodri PhillipsMobile +44 (0)7768 [email protected]

New Refurbished Unrefurbished

www.geraldeve.com

Page 17: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

Farringdon

Chancery Lane

Barbican

Old Street

800000s sq ft

600

400

200

0

2008

2009

2019

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2020

2018

2017

2016

70

55

65

45

30

35

40

25

50

60

20

£ per sq ft

DemandQuarterly take-up and five year average

SupplyAvailability by grade

DevelopmentDevelopment pipeline and prime rent

After a strong 2017, where each quarter exceeded the five year average, leasing activity in 2018 has been subdued in Farringdon & Clerkenwell, with only 500,000 sq ft taken in the first half of the year.

The media and technology sector continues to be the main driver of occupier demand and accounted for 43% of leasing activity in 2018 so far. Notably digital advertising company The Trade Desk, signed for 55,000 sq ft at Ashby Capital and Helical Bar’s One Bartholomew development. The Trade Desk have taken the top three floors, including the tenth-floor terrace at the 12-storey, 215,000 sq ft office, which will complete in the second half of the year.

Serviced offices continued to expand in the market with office provider, Spaces taking 50,000 sq ft in the same building. A number of development completions in the first half of the year, including Helical Bar’s The Bower, and Great Portland Estates’ Spectrum, delivered 387,000 sq ft of new office space to the market. Although 63% of this space was already let on completion, the overall availability and in particular new high quality space, increased over the last six months, and recorded an availability rate of 6.3%, up from 4.2% 12 months ago.

The availability rate is likely to increase further, with currently 775,000 sq ft set to be delivered over the next 18 months, 62% of which is currently still available.

FARRINGDON & CLERKENWELL

£65.00Prime Rent

6.3%Availability Rate

13.1%Tenant Space

5Underground Stations

2Michelin Star Restaurants

116Pubs

43%Media & Technology take-up

775,000 sq ftUnder Construction

294,000 sq ftUnder Offer

600000s sq ft

0

500

400

300

200

100

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2018

Q4

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q1

2018

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

1400

1200

1000

80

000s sq ft

60

50

40

20

0

Q1

2015

Q4

2017

Q3

2017

Q2

2017

Q1

2017

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2016

Q4

2015

Q3

2015

Q2

2015

Source: Gerald Eve

ContactAmy BryantMobile +44 (0)7551 [email protected]

Take-up Five year average

Completed Under construction let Under construction available Prime rent (RHS)

New Refurbished Unrefurbished

17

Page 18: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

SHOREDITCH Brick Lane Market

Old Spitalfields Market

Shoreditch High Street

Liverpool Street

Whitechapel

500

450

000s sq ft

300

400

350

250

200

150

100

50

0

2008

2009

2019

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2020

2018

2017

2016

80

50

30

40

60

70

20

£ per sq ft

DemandQuarterly take-up and five year average

SupplyAvailability by grade

DevelopmentDevelopment pipeline and prime rent

Occupier activity remained robust with 482,000 sq ft leased during the first half of the year, with a further 47,000 sq ft currently under offer.

The media and tech sector continued to be drawn to the region, and accounted for 51% of activity. Notably Made.com took 22,000 sq ft at 5-7 Singer Street, paying £55 per sq ft. The largest deal of the year so far occurred when serviced office provider, Spaces took 40,000 sq ft at Epworth House.

The volume of leasing activity seen in the first half of the year has resulted in a 16% drop in overall availability, most of which is unrefurbished space, leaving the market with an availability rate of 3.2%, one of the lowest across central London.

This fall in availability came despite the delivery of four developments, including M&G’s London Fruit & Wool Exchange (275,000 sq ft), and Rocket Investments’ Atlas Building (82,000 sq ft), both of which were fully let on completion.

Whilst the market currently has a further 438,000 sq ft under construction, 46% of this space has also been leased, with the rest likely to be taken by the time of delivery. As a result, the availability rate is unlikely to increase over the next 18 months and lead to an increase in prime rents.

British Land have recently received planning consent for the development at Blossom Street, Spitalfields, which plans to deliver a much-needed 347,000 sq ft to the market by 2021 at the earliest.

£70.00Prime Rent

3.2%Availability Rate

22%Tenant Space

4Underground Stations

3Michelin Star Restaurants

66Pubs

51%Media & Technology take-up

433,000 sq ftUnder Construction

47,000 sq ftUnder Offer

450000s sq ft

0

300

350

200

250

400

100

150

50

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2018

Q4

2017

Q1

2018

Q3

2017

Q2

2017

600

500

400

000s sq ft

200

300

100

0

Q3

2015

Q2

2018

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q1

2018

Q2

2017

Q1

2017

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2016

Q4

2015

Source: Gerald Eve

Take-up Five year average

Completed Under construction let Under construction available Prime rent (RHS)

New Refurbished Unrefurbished

www.geraldeve.com

ContactFergus JaggerMobile +44 (0)7787 [email protected]

Page 19: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

CITYLiverpool Street

Cannon Street

Farringdon

4.0

3.5

Million sq ft

2.0

3.0

2.5

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

2008

2009

2019

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2020

2018

2017

2016

75

55

65

45

50

60

70

40

£ per sq ft

DemandQuarterly take-up and five year average

SupplyAvailability by grade

DevelopmentDevelopment pipeline and prime rent

Occupier sentiment continues to be positive in the City, with over 2.2 million sq ft taken during the first half of the year.

Professional service firms have been the most active in 2018, and in particular the legal sector. As well as Bryan Cave Leighton Paisner, which took 121,000 sq ft of office space at Governors House, Sidley Austin signed for 101,000 sq ft at 70 St Mary’s Axe. Bryan Cave Leighton Paisner, agreed to take the space at Governors House to use as their new headquarters, following their merger at the beginning of the year.

Although the City has done well in diversifying its tenant base in recent years, Brexit remains a risk with financial services still a big driver of demand. The City is home to 50% of all financial services firms occupying 10,000 sq ft or more across central London, while over half of the lettings above 100,000 sq ft in the last 10 years were by firms in this sector.

The importance of the finance and banking sector to the market was highlighted when Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation agreed to lease 161,000 sq ft at British Land’s 100 Liverpool Street redevelopment at Broadgate. This letting is the most recent in a series of commitments from a range of occupiers at Broadgate, including cyber security and data management company Mimecast, which is taking 79,000 sq ft at 1 Finsbury Avenue.

Despite a number of development completions over the last 18 months, the demand for new high quality space has led to a flurry of pre-letting activity, and as a result the impact on overall availability has been limited. In fact, the availability rate has fallen to 5.5%, down from 6.2% at the end of December.

£68.50Prime Rent

5.5%Availability Rate

27%Tenant Space

14Underground Stations

4Michelin Star Restaurants

179Pubs

29%Professional Services take-up

4,425,000 sq ftUnder Construction

1,725,000 sq ftUnder Offer

1.6Million sq ft

0

1.2

0.8

1.4

0.6

0.4

0.2

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2017

Q4

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

6

4

2

Million sq ft

5

3

1

0

Q3

2015

Q2

2018

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q1

2018

Q2

2017

Q1

2017

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2016

Q4

2015

Source: Gerald Eve

Take-up Five year average

Completed Under construction let Under construction available Prime rent (RHS)

New Refurbished Unrefurbished

19

ContactSteve JohnsMobile +44 (0)7833 [email protected]

Page 20: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

www.geraldeve.com

Waterloo

London Bridge

Embankment

Elephant and Castle

Tate Modern

Oxo Tower

1000000s sq ft

600

800

400

200

0

2008

2009

2019

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2020

2018

2017

70

45

55

35

40

65

50

60

30

2016

£ per sq ft

DemandQuarterly take-up and five year average

SupplyAvailability by grade

DevelopmentDevelopment pipeline and prime rent

Following a subdued second half to 2017, leasing volumes bounced back in 2018 with 576,000 sq ft taken over the last six months.

Professional services were the most active occupiers in acquiring space, and property company CBRE signed the largest deal, pre-letting 79,000 sq ft at HB Reavis’ Cooper & Southwark development.

Elsewhere in the market, Civica took space at Hermes Investment Management and Canada Pension Plan Investment Board’s (CPPIB) South Bank Central. Civica will take 15,000 sq ft of office space on the eighth floor of South Bank Central’s Vivo building on a 15-year lease.

The overall availability rate increased to 4.1% in Q2 2018, and could increase further with a number of scheme completions are expected over the next 18 months including the redevelopment of the Shell Centre.

The development of both One and Two Southbank Place, which will total more than 582,000 sq ft, will also complete, although both are fully let, the first to Shell International and the latter to WeWork.

Over the long term, the regeneration efforts and transport improvements in the market are likely to boost the appeal of areas like Elephant and Castle, Battersea, and Vauxhall, which could provide competition.

SOUTHBANK

£65.00Prime Rent

4.1%Availability Rate

20.0%Tenant Space

7Underground Stations

1Michelin Star Restaurants

129Pubs

62%Professional Services take-up

624,000 sq ftUnder Construction

211,000 sq ftUnder Offer

600000s sq ft

0

500

400

300

200

100

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

900

800

700

600

000s sq ft

400

500

300

100

200

0

Q3

2015

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2017

Q3

2017

Q2

2017

Q1

2017

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2016

Q4

2015

Source: Gerald Eve

Take-up Five year average

Completed Under construction let Under construction available Prime rent (RHS)

New Refurbished Unrefurbished

ContactFergus JaggerMobile +44 (0)7787 [email protected]

Page 21: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

21

Canary Wharf

Blackwall

South Quay

Poplar

East India

CANARY WHARF

1600

1400

000s sq ft

800

1200

1000

600

400

200

0

2008

2009

2019

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2020

2018

2017

2016

55

45

35

40

50

30

£ per sq ft

DemandQuarterly take-up and five year average

SupplyAvailability by grade

DevelopmentDevelopment pipeline and prime rent

Office fundamentals in Canary Wharf have weakened recently due to a combination of subdued leasing activity and rising availability.

Take-up volumes reached 203,000 sq ft in the first half of the year, with both quarters falling well below the five year average. Serviced office provider, The Office Group, secured the largest letting of the year so far, taking 45,000 sq ft at 15 Water Street on a 20 year lease. However despite the subdued start to the year, leasing volumes could pick up in H2 2018, with currently 567,000 sq ft under offer.

A combination of weak demand, and also a release of secondhand space back to the market, has led to an increase in the overall availability rate to 10.7%. Tenant space is currently at 37%, as a number of banks are trying to offload surplus space. The Financial Conduct Authority will vacate 300,000 sq ft at 25 North Colonnade later this year in a move to Stratford.

The uncertainty surrounding Brexit remains a key threat to the market, due to the dominance of the finance & banking sector in the market. Some of the banks have signalled their intent to relocate jobs and sublease at least some space, while the European Banking Authority and the European Medicines Agency will move to Paris and Amsterdam respectively.

Despite the weakening fundamentals, development activity has increased. Five Bank Street (715,000 sq ft) will complete early next year, with 280,000 sq ft pre-let to Société Générale already. Canary Wharf Group’s mixed-use scheme at Wood Wharf, is also under construction, which will target the media & technology sector, in an attempt to diversify occupier employment in the market.

£50.00Prime Rent

10.7%Availability Rate

36.9%Tenant Space

1Underground Stations

0Michelin Star Restaurants

25Pubs

53%Serviced Offices take-up

1,269,000 sq ftUnder Construction

567,000 sq ftUnder Offer

600000s sq ft

500

0

300

400

200

100

Q3

2014

Q4

2014

Q1

2015

Q2

2015

Q3

2015

Q4

2015

Q1

2016

Q2

2017

Q4

2016

Q1

2017

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

2000

1500

1000

000s sq ft

500

750

250

1750

1250

0

Q3

2015

Q2

2018

Q1

2018

Q4

2017

Q3

2017

Q2

2017

Q1

2017

Q4

2016

Q3

2016

Q2

2016

Q1

2016

Q4

2015

Source: Gerald Eve

Take-up Five year average

Completed Under construction let Under construction available Prime rent (RHS)

New Refurbished Unrefurbished

ContactSteve JohnsMobile +44 (0)7833 [email protected]

Page 22: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

Rent reviews are of course not just about where rental levels are today but rather how today’s rents compare with those set (usually) five years earlier. Further, the relationship between these rents has to allow for the impact of rent free periods.

The table opposite shows, based on the general tone of rents reported in this guide, average increases in rents that can be expected today at rent review for grade A offices.

Also shown are the average increases that might be expected in Summer 2019 allowing for rental growth over the coming year and adopting the rental levels that existed in Summer 2014 as the base line from which projected increases have been calculated.

As can be seen, the areas where material increases are most likely to be found are away from the primary cores: around the edge of the traditional City core where the ‘tech’ industries have had such a material impact, and the locations outside the West End core which have benefited from occupiers seeking good quality buildings but at more affordable rents.

This analysis looks at situations where the transaction five years ago was a letting of a grade A office. Where it was a rent review, these increases are likely to be greater as the passing rent will be a net effective rent (so an ‘average’ allowing for the headline rent and rent free) but the building will be older which will moderate the increase.

The trends we are seeing in rent review practices, as the scale of uplifts generally reduces, is of rent reviews becoming more hard fought with an increasing number being referred to arbitration or equivalent. In multi-let buildings landlords are seeing the benefit from being tactical in trying to create evidence to set a precedent; generally pro-active asset management is again becoming more important if rents are to be grown. There are also factors driving rents today which were less prevalent five years ago: floors at the top of a building or with terraces are today often seeing a pronounced difference in rents from other floors in the building and where these circumstances exist this may offer opportunity at rent review.

Sum

mer

201

3he

adlin

e re

nt

Sum

mer

201

8he

adlin

e re

nt

Ren

t fre

e m

onth

s

Impl

ied

net

effe

ctiv

e re

nt

Pre

dict

ed

uplif

t

Paddington £57.50 £72.50 21 £61.60 7%

Marylebone £82.50 £85.00 21 £72.30 0%

Mayfair & St James’s £105.00 £110.00 21 £93.50 0%

Knightsbridge £72.50 £90.00 21 £76.50 6%

Victoria £70.00 £75.00 21 £63.80 0%

Soho £75.00 £90.00 18 £78.80 5%

Fitzrovia £67.00 £82.50 24 £68.10 2%

Covent Garden £61.50 £77.50 21 £65.90 7%

Midtown £55.00 £70.00 24 £57.80 5%

King’s Cross & Euston £55.00 £80.00 18 £70.00 27%

Farringdon & Clerkenwell £42.50 £65.00 21 £55.30 30%

Shoreditch £35.00 £70.00 24 £57.80 65%

City £55.00 £68.50 24 £56.50 3%

Southbank £47.50 £65.00 18 £56.90 20%

Canary Wharf £37.50 £50.00 24 £41.30 10%

London Average £61.23 £76.73 21 £65.07 12%

CENTRAL LONDON RENT REVIEWSIn the current environment, rent reviews are becoming much more hard fought. We predict the greatest rental uplift in markets away from the primary London core markets, in locations where occupiers, notably media and technology occupiers, have sought-out good quality space at more affordable rents.

ContactTony GuthrieMobile +44 (0)7717 225 [email protected]

70

50

60

%

10

20

40

30

0

Pad

ding

ton

Mar

yleb

one

May

fair

& S

t Jam

es’s

Vic

toria

Kni

ghts

brid

ge

Soh

o

Fitz

rovi

a

Mid

tow

n

Cov

ent G

arde

n

Kin

g’s

Cro

ss &

Eus

ton

Farr

ingd

on &

Cle

rken

wel

l

Sho

redi

tch

Sou

thba

nk

City

Can

ary

Wha

rf

Summer 2018 Summer 2019

Predicted uplifts at future rent reviewsSource: Property Data, Gerald Eve

www.geraldeve.com

Page 23: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

GERALD EVE IN THE MARKET

DEFINITIONS

Angel Court, CityWe have negotiated terms for a new lease on 60,000 sq ft in the former JP Morgan tower at 1 Angel Court EC2 which has been substantially rebuilt by Mitsui Fudosan and Stanhope.

The Peak, 5 Wilton Road, VictoriaWe have successfully advised Guggenheim Partners in disposing of the 5th floor offices of 11,000 sq ft to Vivo Energy.

Bath and Cayton, Farringdon & ClerkenwellWe have successfully completed the sale of Bath & Cayton, EC1 (7-9 Bath Street & 4-12 Cayton Street) on behalf of City, University of London.

Smithson Plaza, 25 St James’s Street, St James’sActing on behalf of Tishman Speyer, we recently launched the 1st phase of the extensively refurbished Smithson Plaza and have promptly placed the top 3 floors of 11,000 sq ft in the tower building under offer. We will be launching an additional 20,000 sq ft to market during Q4.

Quality

New: Floor in a newly-developed or newly-refurbished building, including sub-let space in new buildings which have not been previously occupied. Refurbished: A floor which has been comprehensively refurbished and is of good specification, floorplate efficiency and image, but is in a building which is not new or been comprehensively refurbished. Unrefurbished: Poorer quality space, usually offered for occupation ‘as is’.

Prime headline rentsThe rent being paid which does not take account of concessions such as rent free periods. The references to both headline rents and incentives in this report are a reflection of the best office space in that submarket which is taken on an assumed ten year term.

Tenant space

Reference to ‘tenant space’ includes office space that is actively marketed and is available either as a sub-let or an assignment of an existing lease. ‘Grey space’ that is not actively marketed is not covered in this report.

23

Page 24: LONDON MARKETS - Gerald Eve...Occupier sentiment remains positive across central London, with 7 million sq ft taken in the first half of the year, an 11% increase on ... Q2 2015 Q3

Agency & Investment

Lloyd DaviesPartnerTel. +44 (0)20 7333 6242 Mobile +44 (0)7767 311254 [email protected]

Fergus JaggerPartnerTel. +44 (0)20 7653 6831Mobile +44 (0)7787 558756 [email protected]

Steve JohnsPartnerTel. +44 (0)20 7653 6858 Mobile +44 (0)7833 401249 [email protected]

Rhodri Phillips PartnerTel. +44 (0)20 3486 3451 Mobile +44 (0)7768 615296 [email protected]

Patrick RyanPartnerTel. +44 (0)20 7333 6368 Mobile +44 (0)7792 078397 [email protected]

Lease Consultancy

Tony GuthriePartnerTel. +44 (0)20 3486 3456 Mobile +44 (0)7717 225 600 [email protected]

Graham FosterPartnerTel. +44 (0)20 7653 6832Mobile +44 (0)7774 [email protected]

Research

Alex DunnAssociateTel. +44(0)203 486 3495Mobile +44 (0)7917 [email protected]

Disclaimer & copyright

London Markets is a short summary and is not intended to be definitive advice. No responsibility can be accepted for loss or damage caused by reliance on it.

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The reproduction of the whole or part of this publication is strictly prohibited without permission from Gerald Eve LLP.

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